• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다음 장소 예측

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A Numerical Model for the Movement of Spilled Oil at Ocean (해상누유 확산의 수치해석)

  • Dong-Y. Lee;Hang-S. Choi
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 1994
  • This paper describes a short-term prediction model for the movement of an oil slick in shallow waters. Under the assumption that the initial movement of the oil slick is governed by spreading and advection, the model has been developed and applied to Kyungki-Bay near Incheon Harbor. The initial spreading is estimated by using an empirical formula. The depth-averaged momentum equations are solved numerically for the volume transport velocities, in which the $M_2$ tide is the main driving source. A staggered grid system is adopted fur spatial discretization and the half-time method is implemented for time marching. The numerical result is visualized with the help of animation and thus the contaminated area is displayed on a monitor in time sequence. The input data are the time, the location and the volume of spill accident as well as environmental data such as md and $M_2$ tide.

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Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

Comparative Study on Predictions of Passengers' Evacuation Performances Before and After the Remodelling of MV SEWOL (세월호 증개축 전후 승선객의 피난성능 예측비교)

  • Hwang, Kwang Il
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2015
  • Even though the passengers' safety has priority on Passenger ship, there is no criterion on the evacuation performance related with human behavior. To uncover the potential problems of domestic criteria on safety of passenger ships, this study performed simulation ad analysis the evacuees safety before and after the Sewol's remodelling. It is clear that the assembly stations of both before and after Sewol remodelling have sufficient areas to satisfy the domestic criterion by simply human- body's-area, but those are failed to assemble all the passengers by the simulation tool that reflects the human behaviors' characteristics. For the healing angle as 0 degree, and the criteria of SOLAS, it was found out that all the passengers can safely evacuate from each cabins to the embarkation stations for both of the before-and-after the Sewol remodelling. But for the healing angle as 20 degree, both of the before-and-after Sewol remodelling are evaluated as possible to make all the passengers evacuate for day scenario and impossible for night scenario of SOLAS criteria. And because of the worse conditions after the remodelling, the probabilities of Sewol(before) are showed wide band comparing to Naminoue (after).

Method to Obtain the Antenna Efficiency of a Base Station in the Middle Frequency Band (중파 대역 기준국 안테나의 효율 측정 방법)

  • Bae, Su-Won;Kwon, Se-Woong;Lee, Woo-Sung;Moon, Hyun-Wook;Yoon, Young-Joong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.572-579
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    • 2008
  • To predict the system coverage in the middle frequency(MF) band, it is required to know the antenna efficiency at a base station. However, calculating the accurate efficiency is difficult since the efficiency may change according to the area where the antenna is installed. Thus, this paper proposes a method to obtain the antenna efficiency of a base station in the MF band from the measurement. This method uses the measured field strengths and the attenuation model in the MF band. Therefore, an attenuation model which is used in the proposed method is presented at first. Then, the process of the proposed method is followed using detailed explanations. Finally, antenna efficiencies of base stations which are currently operating are obtained by applying the proposed method and the usefulness of the obtained results are verified by comparing with ideal efficiencies.

The Optical Tracking Method of Flight Target using Kalman Filter with DTW (DTW와 Kalman Filter를 결합한 비행표적의 광학추적 방법)

  • Jang, Sukwon
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.217-222
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    • 2021
  • EOTS(Electro-Optical Tracking System) is utilized in acquiring visual information to assess a guided missile's performance. As the missile travels so fast, it is almost impossible for operator to re-capture the lost target. The RADAR or telemetry data are used to re-capture the lost target however facilities to receive real time data is required, which constrains selection of tracking site. Unlike aforementioned data, pre-calculated nominal trajectory can be used without communication facility. This paper proposes a method to predict lost target's state by employing nominal trajectory. Firstly, observed trajectory and nominal trajectory are compared using DTW and current target's state is predicted. The predicted state is used as observation in Kalman filter's correction phase to predict target's next state. The plausibility of the proposed method is verified by applying on actual missile trajectory.

Analysis on the Driving Safety and Investment Effect using Severity Model of Fatal Traffic Accidents (대형교통사고 심각도 모형에 의한 주행안전성 및 투자효과 분석)

  • Lim, Chang-Sik;Choi, Yang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we discuss a fatal accident severity model obtained from the analysis of 112 crash sites collected since 2000, and the resulting relationship between fatal accidents and roadway geometry design. From the 720 times computer simulations for improving driving safety, we then reached the following conclusions:. First, the result of cross and frequency-analyses on the car accident sites showed that 43.7% of the accidents occurred on the curved roads, 60.7% on the vertical curve section, 57.2% on the roadways with radius of curvature of 0 to 24m, 83.9% on the roads with superelevation of 0.1 to 2.0% and 49.1% on the one-way 2-lane roads; vehicle types involved are passenger vehicles (33.0%), trucks (20.5%) and buses (14.3%) in order of frequency. The results also show that the superelevation is the most influencing factor for the fatal accidents. Second, employing the Ordered Probit Model (OPM), we developed a severity model for fatal accidents being a function of on various road conditions so as to the damages can be predicted. The proposed model possibly assists the practitioners to predict dangerous roadway segments, and to take appropriate measures in advance. Third, computer simulation runs show that providing adequate superelevation on the segment where a fatal accident occurred could reduce similar fatal accidents by at least 85%. This result indicates that the regulations specified in the Rule for Road Structure and Facility Standard (description and guidelines) should be enhanced to include more specific requirement for providing the superelevation.

A Study on Security Plans At Large-Scale International Event Halls: Focusing on Assessment of Escape Safety of K Stadium for The Incheon Asian Games (대규모 국제행사장의 경호경비계획에 관한 연구: 인천 아시안게임 K경기장의 피난안전성 평가를 중심으로)

  • Park, Nam-Kwun;Lee, Young-Ju;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.30
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    • pp.7-32
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    • 2012
  • Korea faces The 2014 Incheon Asian Games and 2018 Pyungchang Winter Olympics. It is imperative to hold a safe event for the economic benefits, enhancing Korea's image, social integration, national harmony and unity in order to be evaluated as a successful international event. Furthermore, since the international event tends to draw many spectators, the host country must be ready to accommodate a large number of injured people in the event of an accident or terror attack. As stadiums for international events are where a large number of spectators gather in, a large refuge is essential, when dangerous situations happen. In this study, evacuation simulation was conducted using three scenarios in order to predict escape behaviors of spectators during the large escape by destruction of safety systems of stadiums and assess escape safety. As the result, the following results and proposals were extracted. Firstly, it is considered that dangerous situations during the security of stadiums should be predicted in advance and concrete plans for a large refuge of spectators have to be established to minimize damage. Secondly, it was found that the reduction in evacuation exits has an important impact on evacuation in an emergency situation. It implies that securing escape exits are quite important. Thirdly, there were areas where spectators stayed, due to blocked escape exits, while they were dispersed and concentrated at once. It demonstrates that security plans considering properties of facilities are required to solve these problems.

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A Study on the Architectural Environment as a Combination of Performance and Event (퍼포먼스.이벤트의 결합체로서 건축환경연구)

  • 김주미
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.14
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    • pp.121-138
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a new architectural language and design strategies that would anticipate and incorporate new historical situations and new paradigms to understand the world. It consists of four sections as follows: First, it presents a new interpretation of space, human body, and movement that we find in modern art and tries to combine that new artistic insight with environmental design to provide a theoretical basis for performance-event architecture. Second, it conceives of architectural environment as a combination of space, movement, and probabilistic situations rather than a mere conglomeration of material. It also perceives the environment as a stage for performance and the act of designing as a performance. Third, in this context, man is conceived of as an organic system that responds to, interacts with, and adapts himself to his environment through self-regulation. By the same token, architecture should be a dynamic system that undergoes a constant transformation in its attempt to accommodate human actions and behaviors as he copes with the contemporary philosophy characterized by the principle of uncertainty, fast-changing society, and the new developments in technology. Fourth, the relativistic and organic view-point that constitutes the background for all this is radically different from the causalistic and mechanistic view that characterized the forms and functions of modernistic design. The present study places a great emphases on dematerialistic conception of environment and puts forth a disprogramming method that would accommodate interchangeability in the passage of time and the intertextuality of form and function. In the event, performance-event architecture is a strategy based on the systems world-view that would enable the recovery of man's autonomy and the reconception of his environment as an object of art.

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Development of Acquisition and Analysis System of Radar Information for Small Inshore and Coastal Fishing Vessels - Position Tracking and Real-Time Monitoring- (연근해 소형 어선의 레이더 정보 수록 및 해석 시스템 개발 -위치 추적 및 실시간 모니터링 -)

  • 이대재;김광식;신형일;변덕수
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.337-346
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    • 2003
  • This paper describes on the system and method for automatically tracking and real-time monitoring the position of target ships relative to the own ship using a PC based radar system that displays radar images and electronic charts together on a single PC screen. This system includes a simulator for generating the GGA and VTG information of target ships and a simulator for generating the TTM and OSD outputs from a ARPA radar and then host computer accepts NMEA0183 sentences on the maneuvering information of target ships from these simulators. The results obtained are summarized as follows;1. The system developed this study can be used as a range finder for measuring the distance between two ships and as a device for providing the maneuvering information such as distance and bearing to target ships from own ship on ECS screen. 2. From the result of position tracking for a selected target ship tracked with an update rate of 5 seconds using the $\alpha$-$\beta$ tracker, we concluded that the smoothing effect by the $\alpha$-$\beta$tracker was very effective and stable except in the time interval until about one minute after the target is detected. 3. From the fact that the real-time maneuvering information of tracked ship targets via a local area network (LAN) from a host computer installed a radar target extractor was successfully transferred to various monitoring computers of ship, we concluded that this system can be used as a sub-monitoring system of ARPA radar.

Recommended Methods for Surface Counting to Determine Sites of Red Cell Destruction - A Report by the Panel on Diagnostic Applications of Radioisotopes in Haematology of the International Committee for Standardization in Hematology

  • The Korea Society of Nuclear Medicine The Korea Society of Nuclear Medicine
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.8 no.1_2
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 1974
  • 이 논문(論文)은 1973년(年) ICSH주최로 열린 panel에서 적혈구파괴(赤血球破壞) 장소(場所)를 결정(決定)하기 위한 생체(生體) 체표계측법(醫表計測法)의 표준화(標準化)에 관(關)한 토론(討論) 결과(結果)를 초록(抄錄)한 것이다. 체표계측(體表計測)은 체외(體外)에서 계측기(計測器)를 이용(利用)하여 각(各) 장기(臟器)에서의 방사표지물질(放射標識物質)의 분포(分布) 및 시간경과(時間經過)에 따른 변화(變化)를 측정(測定)하는 것으로서 $^{51}Cr$를 사용(使用)하여 적혈구수명(赤血球壽命)을 측정(測定)할 때 간(肝), 비(脾), 심장(心臟)의 방사능(放射能)을 계측(計測)한다. 이 방법(方法)은 각(各) 장기(臟器)에서의 적혈구파괴(赤血球破壞)의 정도(程度)를 예측할 수 있다. 특(特)히 용혈성(溶血性) 빈혈환자(貧血患者)에서 비장적출(脾臟摘出) 여부를 결정(決定)하는데 도움이 된다. 이 panel에서는 주(主)로 오차(誤差)의 원인(原因)이 되는 여러가지 요인(要因)에 대(對)하여 토론(討論)하였으며 일반적으로 다음과 같은 것에 의견(意見)의 일치(一致)를 보았다. 즉(卽) 비장(脾臟)의 위치(位置)는 $^{99m}Tc$로 비주사(脾走査)를 실시하여 결정(決定)하는것이 좋고, $^{51}Cr$은 체중(體重) 1kg당 $1.5{\mu}Ci$를 사용하여, 계측기(計測器)는 NaI crystal(직경이 5cm이상, 두께가 3.75cm이상)의 scintillation doctor를 사용하고, 계측(計測)은 $^{51}Cr$로 표지(標識)된 적혈구(赤血球) 주입후(注入後) 15분(分) 이후(以後)에 하고 다음날 계측(計測)한 후(後) 2주(週) 동안에 적어도 6번 계측(計測)한다. Data 처리는 excess count법(法)과 비(脾)와 간(肝)의 비(比)로서하는 것이 좋다.定値)에 차이(差異)가 있어 그 결과(結果)의 해석(解釋) 및 비교(比較) 검토(檢討)에 적지않은 난점(難點)이 생겨 표준화(標準化)된 공통적(共通的)인 방법(方法)의 사용(使用)이 중요(重要)하다는 사실(事實)이 인식(認識)되게 되었다. 1966년(年) 호주(濠洲)의 Sydney에서 개최(開催)되었든 제11차(第11次) 국제혈액학회(國際血學會)때 열린 제4차(第4次) International Committee for Standardization in Haematology(ICSH)에서 Diagnostic Applications of Radioisotopes in Haematology에 관(關)한 expert panel을 갖을것을 의결(議決)하여 다음과 같은 12명(名)의 위원(委員)이 결정(決定)되었으며 위원회(委員會)의 의장(議長)에 Dr. Szur, 총무(總務)에 Dr. Glass가 각각(各各) 선임(選任)되었다. 그간(間) 1967년(年) 영경(英京) London에서 첫 회합(會合)이 있은후(後) New York, Vienna(IAEA후원(後援)) Brthesda(NIH후원(後援))에서 전문위원회(專門委員會)를 갖고 적혈구수명측정법(赤血球壽命測定法)에 관(關)한 의견(意見)의 일치(一致)를 보았다. ICSH와 국제혈액학회(國際血學會)에서는 이번에 결정(決定)된 적혈구수명측정법(赤血球壽命測定法)을 널리 소개(紹介)하며, 측정법(測定法)과 얻어진 결과(結果)의 해석(解釋)에 표준화(標準化)를 기(期)할 목적(目的)으로 이에 연관성(聯關性)있는 전문지(專門誌)에 게재(揭載)할 것을 요청(要請) 받었기에 이에 전문(全文)을 소개(紹介)하는 바이다. 이들은 방사성(放射性) chromium 법(法)의 모든 세부적(細部的)인 면(面)을 표준화(標準化)하고 있으며 그간(間) 가장 논란(論難)의 대상(對象)이 되었던, $^{51}Cr$-표지방법(標識方法)에 있어서의 세가지 변법(變法),

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