• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다변수 선형회귀분석

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Performance Evaluation of Statistical Methods Applicable to Estimating Remaining Battery Runtime of Mobile Smart Devices (모바일 스마트 장치 배터리의 남은 시간 예측에 적용 가능한 통계 기법들의 평가)

  • Tak, Sungwoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.284-294
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    • 2018
  • Statistical methods have been widely used to estimate the remaining battery runtime of mobile smart devices, such as smart phones, smart gears, tablets, and etc. However, existing work available in the literature only considers a particular statistical method. Thus, it is difficult to determine whether statistical methods are applicable to estimating thr remaining battery runtime of mobile devices or not. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of statistical methods applicable to estimating the remaining battery runtime of mobile smart devices. The statistical estimation methods evaluated in this paper are as follows: simple and moving average, linear regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, auto regressive, polynomial curve fitting, and double and triple exponential smoothing methods. Research results presented in this paper give valuable data of insight to IT engineers who are willing to deploy statistical methods on estimating the remaining battery runtime of mobile smart devices.

A Multivariate Analysis of Korean Professional Players Salary (한국 프로스포츠 선수들의 연봉에 대한 다변량적 분석)

  • Song, Jong-Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.441-453
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    • 2008
  • We analyzed Korean professional basketball and baseball players salary under the assumption that it depends on the personal records and contribution to the team in the previous year. We extensively used data visualization tools to check the relationship among the variables, to find outliers and to do model diagnostics. We used multiple linear regression and regression tree to fit the model and used cross-validation to find an optimal model. We check the relationship between variables carefully and chose a set of variables for the stepwise regression instead of using all variables. We found that points per game, number of assists, number of free throw successes, career are important variables for the basketball players. For the baseball pitchers, career, number of strike-outs per 9 innings, ERA, number of homeruns are important variables. For the baseball hitters, career, number of hits, FA are important variables.

Self-Organizing Fuzzy Modeling Using Creation of Clusters (클러스터 생성을 이용한 자기구성 퍼지 모델링)

  • Koh, Taek-Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.334-340
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposes a self-organizing fuzzy modeling which can create a new hyperplane-shaped cluster by applying multiple regression to input/output data with relatively large fuzzy entropy, add the new cluster to fuzzy rule base and adjust parameters of the fuzzy model in repetition. Tn the coarse tuning, weighted recursive least squared algorithm and fuzzy C-regression model clustering are used and in the fine tuning, gradient descent algorithm is used to adjust parameters of the fuzzy model precisely And learning rates are optimized by utilizing meiosis-genetic algorithm. To check the effectiveness and feasibility of the suggested algorithm, four representative examples for system identification are examined and the performance of the identified fuzzy model is demonstrated in comparison with that of the conventional fuzzy models.

Usefulness of $^{201}Tl$ Myocardial Perfusion SPECT in Prediction of Left Ventricular Remodeling following an Acute Myocardial Infarction (급성심근경색 후 발생하는 좌심실 재구도 예측에 대한 $^{201}Tl$ 심근관류 SPECT의 운용성)

  • Yoon, Seok-Nam;Park, C.H.;Hwang, Kyung-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: We investigated the role of myocardial perfusion SPECT in prediction of ventricular dilatation and the role of revascularization including thrombolytic therapy and PTCA in prevention of ventricular dilatation after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Materials and Methods: We performed dipyridamole stress, 4 hour redistribution, and 24 hour reinjection Tl-201 SPECT in 16 patients with AMI two to nine days after attack. Perfusion and wall motion abnormalities were quantified by perfusion index (PI) and wall motion index (WMI). Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), WMI and ventricular volume were measured within 1 week of AMI and after average of 6 months. According to serial changes of left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), patients were divided into two groups. We compared WMI, PI and LVEF between the two groups. Relationships among degree of volume, stress-rest PI, WMI, CKMB, Q wave, LVEF and revascularization were analysed using multivariate analysis. Results: Only initial rest perfusion index was significantly different between the two groups (p<0.05). While initial LVEF, stress PI, CKMB, trial of revascularization procedure, presence of Q wave and WMI were not significantly different between the two groups. Eight of 16 patients (50%) showed LV dilatation on follow-up echocardiography. Three of 3 patients (100%) who did not undergo revascualrization procedure documented LV dilatation. And only 5 (38%) of the remaining 13 patients who underwent revascularization revealed LV dilatation. There was no difference in infarct location between the two groups. By multivariate linear regression analysis in patients only undergoing revascularization, rest perfusion index was the only significant factor. Conclusion: Myocardial perfusion SPECT performed prior to revascularization was useful in prediction of LV dilatation after an AMI. Rest perfusion index on myocardial perfusion plays as a significant predictor of left ventricular dilatation after AMI. And revascularization appears to be a valuable procedure in alleviating LV dilatation after AMI with or without viable myocardium in a limited number of patients studied retrospectively.

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Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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인공 신경망 기법을 이용한 제지공정의 지절 원인 분석

  • 이진희;이학래
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.168-168
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    • 2001
  • 제지공정의 지절 현상은 많은 공정 변수들이 복합적으로 작용하여 발생하는 가장 큰 공정 트러블 중의 하나이다. 지절은 생산량 감소 뿐만 아니라 발생 후 공정의 복구 와 정리, 생산재가동 및 공정의 재안정화를 위해 많은 시간과 비용, 그리고 노력이 투 입되어야 하므로 공정의 효율과 생산성을 크게 저하시키는 요인이다. 그러나 지절 현상 의 복잡성 때문에 이에 대해 쉽게 접근하거나 해결하지 못하고 있는 것이 현실이지만 그 필요성은 더욱 더 증대되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최근 들어 각종 산업분야에서 복잡 한 공정상의 결점 발견 및 진단에 효과적이라고 인정받고 있는 예측 분석기법인 인공 신경망(artificial neural network) 시율레이션과 일반적인 통계기법 중의 하나인 주성분 분석을 이용하여 제지 공정의 지절 현상의 검토 가능성을 타진하였다. 인공신경망이란 인간두뇌에서 일어나는 자극-반응-학습과정을 모사하여 현실세계에 존재하는 다양한 현상들의 업력벡터와 출력상태 간의 비선형 mapping올 컴퓨터 시율 레이션을 통하여 분석하고자 하는 기법으로, 여러 가지 현상들을 학습을 통해서 인식하 는 신경망 내의 신경단위들이 병렬처리에 의해 많은 양의 자료에 대한 추론이나 판단 을 신속하고 정확하게 해주는 특징이 있으며 실시간 패턴인식이나 분류 응용분야에도 매우 매력적으로 이용되고 있는 방법이다. 이러한 인공 신경망 기법 중에서도 본 연구 에서는 퍼셉트론의 한계점을 극복하기 위하여 입력총과 출력층에 한 개 이상의 은닉층 ( (hidden layer)을 사용하여 다층 네트워으로 구성하고, 모든 입력패턴에 대하여 발생하 는 오차함수를 최소화하는 방향으로 연결강도를 조정하는 back propagation 학습 알고 리즘을 사용하였다. 지절의 원인으로 추정 가능한 공정인자들을 변수로 하여 최적의 인 공신경망을 구축하기 위해 학습률과 모멘트 상수의 변화 및 은닉층의 수와 출력층의 뉴런 수를 조절하는 동의 작업을 거쳐 네트워크의 정확도가 높은 인공신경망을 설계하 였다. 또한 이러한 인공신경망과의 비교분석을 위해 동일한 공정 데이터들올 이용하여 보편적으로 사용하는 통계기법 중의 하나인 주성분회귀분석을 실시하였다. 주성분 분석은 여러 개의 반응변수에 대하여 얻어진 다변량 자료의 다차원적인 변 수들을 축소, 요약하는 차원의 단순화와 더불어 서로 상관되어있는 반응변수들 상호간 의 복잡한 구조를 분석하는 기법이다. 본 발표에서는 공정 자료를 활용하여 인공신경망 과 주성분분석을 통해 공정 트러블의 발생에 영향 하는 인자들을 보다 현실적으로 추 정하고, 그 대책을 모색함으로써 이를 최소화할 수 있는 방안을 소개하고자 한다.

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Impact of Pulmonary Vascular Compliance on the Duration of Pleural Effusion Duration after Extracardiac Fontan Procedure (수술 전 폐혈관 유순도가 심장 외 도판을 이용한 Fontan 수술 후 늑막 삼출 기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun Tae-Jin;Im Yu-Mi;Song Kwang-Jae;Jung Sung-Ho;Park Jeong-Jun;Seo Dong-Man;Lee Moo-Song
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.8 s.265
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    • pp.579-587
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    • 2006
  • Background: Preoperative risk analysis for Fontan candidates is still less than optimal in that patients with apparently low risks may have poor surgical outcome; prolonged pleural drainage, protein losing enteropathy, pulmonary thromboembolism and death. We hypothesized that low pulmonary vascular compliance (PVC) is a risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the Fontan operation. Material and Method: A retrospective review of 96 consecutive patients who underwent the Extracardiac Fontan procedures (median age: 3.9 years) was performed. Fontan risk score (FRS) was calculated from 12 categorized preoperative anatomic and physiologic variables. PVC $(mm^2/m^2{\cdot}mmHg)$ was defined as pulmonary artery index $(mm^2/m^2)$ divided by total pulmonary resistance $(W.U{\cdot}/m^2)$ and pulmonary blood flow $(L/min/m^2)$ based on the electrical circuit analogue of the pulmonary circulation. Chest tube indwelling time was log-transformed (log indwelling time, LIT) to fit normal distribution, and the relationship between preoperative predictors and LIT was analyzed by multiple linear regression. Result: Preoperative PVC, chest tube indwelling time and LIT ranged from 6 to 94.8 $mm^2/mmHg/m^2$ (median: 24.8), 3 to 268 days (median: 20 days), and 1.1 to 5.6 (mean: 2.9, standard deviation: 0.8), respectively. FRS, PVC, cardiopulmonary bypass time (CPB) and central venous pressure at postoperative 12 hours were correlated with LIT by univariable analyses. By multiple linear regression, PVC (p=0.0018) and CPB (p=0.0024) independently predicted LIT, explaining 21.7% of the variation. The regression equation was LIT=2.74-0.0158 PVC+0.00658 CPB. Conclusion: Low pulmonary vascular compliance is an important risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the extracardiac Fontan procedure.

The Relationship between Factors of Metabolic Syndrome in Korean Adult Males and the Parents' Family History of Diabetes (한국 성인 남자의 대사증후군 인자와 부모의 당뇨병 가족력 관계)

  • Park, Hyung-Su;Jeong, Jin-Gyu;Yu, Jin-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.779-784
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to look into the relationship between the parents's family history of diabetes and factors of metabolic syndrome focusing on Korean adult males with a family history of diabetes. The data used for the study was collected from the 2010 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The subjects of the study totaled 2,045. For statistical analysis, double sampling general linear regression was used and the statistical significance was p<0.05. As a result of a multi-variate analysis with general characteristics corrected, the following was discovered: when fathers had a family history of diabetes, girth increased by 2.5cm, fasting blood sugar(glu) increased by 9.6mg/dL and neutral fat increased by 41.6mg/dL When the mothers had a family history of diabetes, girth increased by 2.4cm, fasting blood sugar(glu) increased by 15.4mg/dL, and the neutral fat increased by 27.2mg/dL. In conclusion, when the fathers had a family history of diabetes, their children's girth, fasting blood sugar and neutral fat were significantly higher, and when the mothers had a family history of diabetes, their children's girth and fasting blood sugar were significantly higher.

A STUDY OF SPATIAL ABILITY AND WINDOW PRESENTATION STYLES IN WEB-BASED INSTRUCTION (웹 기반 학습에 있어서 공간 지각력과 정보제공 창의 형태 간의 관계 분석)

  • Im, Yeon-Wook
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.649-659
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    • 2005
  • A window presentation style, either tiled window or single page design, determines the spatial arrangement of information in a modern computer-based instructional design. This study investigates the interaction between spatial ability and window presentation style in terms of student's achievement of cognitive knowledge through Web-based instruction. Seventy-one students from the Falk School in Pennsylvania were pre-tested to determine their level of spatial ability, then randomly divided into two treatment groups in order to study a Web-based instructional unit on flowering plants. The Web-based instructional package was organized with either tiled window presentation or single page presentation. A posttest measured participants'acquisition of the instructional content. Posttest and spatial ability test scores were analyzed using multi-variate linear regression for the full sample (n=71) and three sub-samples: (a) 4th and 5th grade students only, (b) female students only, and (c) 4th and 5th grade female students only. The goals of the data analysis included the examination of (i) the correlation between spatial ability and posttest scores; (ii) the correlation between window presentation style and posttest score; and (iii) the interaction between spatial ability (aptitude) and presentation style (treatment).The data from all four sample groups showed a significant relationship between spatial ability and achievement of cognitive knowledge at the 1% level of significance. The aptitude-treatment interaction between spatial ability and style of window presentation was not significant in the full sample, but was significant in the sub-samples either at the 10% or 5% level. In neither the full sample nor any sub-sample data did window presentation style have an impact on average posttest score. In all analyses, the higher the level of spatial ability, the higher the posttest score. The sub-samples revealed that students with low spatial ability performed better with the tiled window presentation, while those with high spatial ability did better with the single page presentation. Neither window presentation style was shown to better foster learning by children of all levels of spatial ability.

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.