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Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Prognostic Factors Affecting Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality in Destroyed Lung (파괴폐의 술후 합병증과 사망에 영향을 미치는 예후 인자)

  • 홍기표;정경영;이진구;강경훈;강면식
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.387-391
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    • 2002
  • Background: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in destroyed lung are relatively high. We tried to identify the prognostic factors affecting postoperative morbidity and mortality in destroyed lung through a retrospective study. Material and method: The retrospective study was undertaken in 112 patients who had undergone pneumonectomy or pleuropneumonectomy for destroyed lung at Severance Hospital from 1970 to 2000. We analyzed the correlation between postoperative morbidity and mortality and etiology, duration of disease, preoperative FEV1, presence or absence of peroperative empyema, operation timing, the side of operation, duration of operation, and operation type. Result: There were 55 men and 57 women, aged 20 to 81 years (mean 44 years). Etiologic diseases were tuberculosis in 86 patients(76.8%) including tuberculos empyema in 20 and tuberculous bronchiectasis in 4, pyogenic empyema in 12(10,7%), bronchiectasis in 12(10.7%), and lung abscess in 2(1.8%). Postoperative morbidity were 25%(n=28) and postoperative mortality was 6%(n=7). The presence of preoperative empyema(p=0.016), pleuropneumonectomy(p=0.037) and preoperative FEV1 of less than 1.75 L(P=0.048) significantly increased the postoperative morbidity, If operation time was less than 300min, postoperative morbidity(p=0.002) and mortality(p=0.03) were significantly low. Conclusion: Postoperative morbidity and mortality in destroyed lung were acceptable. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were significantly low when operation time was less than 300 min. Preoperative existence of empyema, pleuropneumonectomy and preoperative FEV1 of less than 1.75 L significantly increased postoperative morbidity.

A Study on Reputation as Corporate Asset (기업자산으로서의 기업명성가치 연구: 국내 4개 기업 슈퍼브랜드와 기업명성, 미디어 이용간 관련성을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Cheol-Han;Cha, Hee-Won
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.30
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    • pp.203-237
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to find a model that can measure the public relations programs based on the assumption that the public relations should aim to lift the corporate reputation. It is a trend that corporate's activities are to be measured from the standpoint of cost-benefit efficiency. However, public relations fields in Korea is left behind this trend because the fields lack in sophisticated model. In order to fill this gap, the researchers introduce the reputation measurement model that can calculate individual corporate public relations programs. In addition, this reputation model Is applied to Korean companies with the expectation of producing a PR index which ran be used to measure the reputation as corporate asset, or superbrand. This study examines the effects of superbrand on consumers according to the media use. Based on the expert group interviews and surveys on consumers, the factors of reputation are drawn. These factors contribute to find reputation model and measurement index which are again applied to measure the Korean companies' public relations programs. Using superbrand as dependent variables and managing abilities, corporate responsibility, corporate communication, and product/employee quality, this study seeks to find which factor specifically attribute to lift corporate reputation. Results show that each factor influences the corporate reputation positively. In addition, the researchers find that media use is moderately related to the superbrand building process in cognitive dimension.

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The Content Analysis of the Clothing Life Unit in the Technology.Home Economics Textbooks of Middle School Based on the Elaboration Theory (정교화 교수이론에 근거한 중학교 기술.가정 교과서 의생활 영역 분석)

  • Heo, YoungSun;Choi, MinJi;Son, Juyoung;Kim, SaetByeol;Baek, MinKyung;Shim, Huensup
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed the 12 different technology home economics textbooks I, II for middle school students and the content systems of the textbooks by 7 instructional strategies in Reigeluth's elaboration theory. The units analyzed were 'Clothing and self-expression' and 'Eco-friendly clothing life and recycling by reform'. The purpose of this study was to provide basic information for the development of textbooks and teaching materials by analyzing current textbooks. Researchers analyzed the textbooks individually using pre-developed analysis frame using Reigeluth's elaboration theory. The results of the study were as follows. The conceptual elaboration process was used in the unit of 'Clothing and self-expression' of all the textbooks used in this study, and procedural elaboration process was mostly used in the unit of 'Eco-friendly clothing life and recycling by reform'. The strategies of advance learning ability were presented mostly in the forms of 'Learning Objective', 'Thought Opening', 'Key terms' in either unit and sub unit. The strategies of summarizer were presented as 'Unit Summary', 'Cleanup' and 'Assessment'. The strategies of synthesizer were used in all the textbooks as the 'Exploration' to increase the students interest through the promotion of the learning content in a variety of activities and projects. The cognitive activator strategies were shown in all of the textbooks using mostly 'Figure,' and others such as 'Table,' 'Diagram', and 'Explanation of Terms'. The strategies of learner control were used to guide the supplement and deepen the learning by various forms. However the analogy strategies were hardly used in units of textbooks analyzed in this study. As a result, the technology home economics textbooks I, II for middle school students applied the Reigeluth's elaboration theory, except the analogy strategies. It is recommended to utilize th analogy strategies and various activities to enhance the students' understanding and participation.

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Development of lumped model to analyze the hydrological effects landuse change (토지이용 변화에 따른 수문 특성의 변화를 추적하기 위한 Lumped모형의 개발)

  • Son, Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.233-252
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    • 1994
  • One of major advantages of Lumped model is its ability to simulate extended flows. A further advantage is that it requires only conventional, readily available hydrological data (rainfall, evaporation and runoff). These two advantages commend the use of this type of model for the analysis of the hydrological effects of landuse change. Experimental Catchment(K11) of Kimakia site in Kenga experienced three phases of landuse change for sixteen and half years. The Institute of Hydrology offered the hydrological data from the catchment for this research. On basis of Blackie's(l972) 9-parameter model, a new model(R1131) was reorganized in consideration of the following aspects to reflect the hydrological characteristics of the catchment: 1) The evapotranspiration necessary for the landuse hydrology, 2) high permeable soils, 3) small catchment, 4) input option for initial soil moisture deficit, and 5) othel modules for water budget analysis. The new model is constructed as a 11-parameter, 3-storage, 1-input option model. Using a number of initial conditions, the model was optimized to the data of three landuse phases. The model efficiencies were 96.78%, 97.20%, 94.62% and the errors of total flow were -1.78%, -3.36%, -5.32%. The bias of the optimized models were tested by several techniques, The extended flows were simulated in the prediction mode using the optimized model and the data set of the whole series of experimental periods. They are used to analyse the change of daily high and low-flow caused by landuse change. The relative water use ratio of the clearing and seedling phase was 60.21%, but that of the next two phases were 81.23% and 83.78% respectively. The annual peak flows of second and third phase at a 1.5-year return period were decreased by 31.3% and 31.2% compared to that of the first phase. The annual peak flow at a 50-year return period in the second phase was an increase of only 4.8%, and that in the third phase was an increase of 12.9%. The annual minimum flow at a 1.5-year return period was decreased by 34.2% in the second phase, and 34.3% in the third phase. The changes in the annual minimum flows were decreased for the larger return periods; a 20.2% decrease in the second phase and 20.9% decrease in the third phase at a 50-year return period. From the results above, two aspects could be concluded. Firstly, the flow regime in Catchment K11 was changed due to the landuse conversion from the clearing and seedling phade to the intermediate stage of pine plantation. But, The flow regime was little affected after the pine trees reached a certain height. Secondly, the effects of the pine plantation on the daily high- and low-flow were reduced with the increase in flood size and the severity of drought.

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A Study on the Improvement of the Existing Technology Valuation Solutions;focused on high technology based start-up company (현행 기술가치 평가모형의 개선 방안에 관한 연구;신기술 창업기업의 경우를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Tai-Shik;Min, Kyung-Se
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.93-120
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    • 2007
  • To promote the commercialization of high technology based start-up company, it is essential to activate technology trading for the Innovative Small & Medium companies which eager to acquire technology competitiveness through technology trading and facilitate financial system which provide Small & Medium companies with technology commercialization money. This study focus on enhancing credibility of technology valuation solutions through the improvement of the existing technology valuation solutions. The existing technology valuation solutions in practice have deficiency in reasonable valuation because of subjective technology factor's calculation. And the commercialization risk of high technology based start-up companies cannot be fully reflected in the existing valuation solutions. The high risk of technology commercialization acts as a hurdle in the facilitation of providing money for the start-up companies. The improved new model will have more acceptable objectivity and reasonably reflect the commercialization risk of start-up companies. The new model has two distinctive features compared to existing solutions. The new model newly adopts commercialization success factor which reflects the risk of high technology based start-up company. And the new model excludes technology factor which is controversial among interested parties. The exclusion of technology factor will improve the objectivity of technology valuation and the adoption of commercialization success factor will solicit investor and capitalist who concern the high risk of technology based start-up companies. In conclusion, the improved new model is expected to activate technology trading and facilitate the money market through which high technology based start-up companies raise commercialization money.

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The Effects of a Group music psychotherapy program on Parenting Stress, and Self-Efficacy in Mothers of Children with Disabilities (그룹 음악심리치료 프로그램이 장애아동 어머니의 양육 스트레스와 자기효능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Ji Eun
    • Journal of Music and Human Behavior
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2007
  • Mothers of Children with Disabilities have many difficulties in parenting because of their children's disabilities. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a Group music psychotherapy programs on parenting stress and self efficacy, and to explore the experiences of the mothers who participated in the program. Twenty mothers of children with disabilities participated in this study. These twenty mothers were divided into 10 mothers of each group. The Experimental group participated in the Group music psychotherapy programs, while the control group did not. The Group music psychotherapy program was implemented for 8 weeks. To prove the effects of the program, pretest-posttest control group design was applied. The differences between pre-test and post-test of two groups were analyzed using independent t-test. The quantitative results of the study were as follows: First, a significant differences was found between the experimental group and control group in parenting stress level. Second, a significant differences was found between the experimental group and control group in self-efficacy level. From the qualitative analyses, four themes emerged from the decrement of parenting stress; Positive change of recognition about their children, Getting rid of stress, Keeping their composure, and Sharing of their emotions. And three themes emerged from the increment of self-efficacy; Discovery of oneself, New stimulus, and Mental support. All the result described above shows that group music psychotherapy program gives positive effect to decrease in parenting stress and also to increase in self-efficacy. And new possibility and effectiveness can be proposed in the music therapeutic approach to the parents of children with disabilities.

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A Study on the Relationships Between Demographic Characteristics of Entrepreneurial Candidates, their Developmental Level of Entrepreneurial Traits and Choice of Business Field (예비 창업자의 인구학적 특성과 창업성향 발달도 및 창업업종 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Joong Seog;Sung, Sang Hyeon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this research is to do exploratory analysis on the relationships between demographic characteristics of entrepreneurial candidates and their developmental level of entrepreneurial traits as well as the choice of business field. We analyzed gender, age, and educational level of the entrepreneurial candidates and their developmental level of entrepreneurial traits such as achievement tendencies, degree of awareness, planning skills, sincerity, interpersonal relationship, and problem-solving skills. Industry fields were classified into 4 types: restaurants, retail, services, internet business. Descriptive statistical analyses, logistic regressions, and variance analyses were performed about the sample data gathered from 1,441 persons since the year 2002 to 2014. Males and highly educated above university preferred service industry than restaurant, retail, and internet business. Females preferred internet business, retail, and restaurants than service industry field. The young persons under 20 showed higher probability to choose internet business. The college level and high school graduates preferred retail and restaurants than service industry. The developmental level of entrepreneurial traits were higher in male and highly educated. By this study, we could find the divide between groups with high and low probabilities of failure: restaurants and retail field showed higher failure probability than service industry in the business fields of self-employed. Furthermore, we could identify that entrepreneurial traits also had been developed differently depending on the groups. It is necessary to refrain from entering into the fields with high failure probabilities as well as to provide supporting policies to build the systems and environment to reduce the cases to begin new business without special knowledges and know-hows. The competency development training should be provided in the early stage of start-ups considering their entrepreneurial traits and aptitudes. Not only the assessment of the entrepreneurial traits but also professional counseling from initial stage are necessary.

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Improvement of Proliferation Capacity of Non-adapted CHO Cells Subcultured Using Serum Free Media in Long-term Culture (무혈청 배지에서 계대배양한 비적응 CHO(Chinese Hamster Ovary) 세포의 증식력 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Sun;Lee, Jin-Sung;Byun, Soon-Hyu;Park, Hong-Woo;Choe, Tae-Boo
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.248-254
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    • 2006
  • Animal cell culture industry has a large market and an exponential growth rate among biological industry field. Chines hamster ovary(CHO) cells are the most widely used cell lines for recombinant protein production. They can avoid infection from polio, herpes, hepatitis B, HIV, measles, adenovirus and etc. Moreover it is easy to transfection recombinant genes and possible to suspension culture. Serum free media is one of the most important factor of protein production. Because serum has problems. Serum is not defined the contents until now, it has a number of proteins, lipids, carbohydrates and unknown molecules that cause of risk involve in infection and high cost of product purification. CHO cell line cultured using serum free media were the basis of a very successful method to produce(glyco-)protein in mammalian cells, which are then used as pharmaceutical products. Also, the low protein content of the developed medium facilitates downstream processing and product purification. But non-adapted CHO cells have a limit of proliferation cultured using serum free media and it takes very long time to adapt non-adapted cells to serum free media. There are a number of causes of a limit of proliferation using serum free media. Absence of growth factors and growth stimulating molecules is a major factor of the reasons. It makes growth signals and moves cell cycle. And increase of cellular stress is another reason. It induces increase of intraceullar ROS concentration. The purpose of this study is about improvement of proliferation capacity of non-adapted CHO cells cultured using serum free media without adaptation process.

Antimutagenic and Cytotoxic Effects of Ethanol Extracts from Five Kinds of Seaweeds (다섯 가지 해조류 에탄올 추출물의 항돌연변이 활성 및 암세포 성장억제 효과)

  • Kim, Sung-Ae;Kim, Jin;Woo, Mee-Kyung;Kwak, Chung-Shil;Lee, Mee-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.451-459
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    • 2005
  • The protective effects of ethanol extracts from 5 seaweeds on the mutagenic and cytotoxic damage were evaluated. They were separately extracted using ethanol from dried samples at room temperature, and freeze-dried. The inhibition effects on the mutagenicity in Salmonella assay by Ames test and cancer cell inhibitory effect in HeLa cell, MCF-7 cell and SNU -638 cell by MTT assay were assayed. Seaweed fusiforme, sea tangle and green laver showed strong inhibitory effect against 2-nitrofluorene, sodium azide- or 2-anthramine-induced mutagenicities in Salmonella Typhimurium TA 98 and TA 100 at the level of 2.5 mg ethanol extract per plate. Cancer cell inhibitory effect was shown with all of the seaweed extracts. Green laver, sea mustard, sea tangle and seaweed fusiforme showed strong cytotoxicity against HeLa and MCF-7 cells, with inhibiting by $92\~93\%$ and $89\~92\%$, respectively. These data show that 5 seaweeds tested in this study might be potent functional foods for cancer prevention, and consumption of these seaweeds in adequate amount is recommended.