• Title/Summary/Keyword: 누적분석

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Probabilistic Assessment of Hydrological Drought Using Hidden Markov Model in Han River Basin (은닉 마코프 모형을 이용한 한강유역 수문학적 가뭄의 확률론적 평가)

  • Park, Yei Jun;Yoo, Ji Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.435-446
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    • 2014
  • Various drought indices developed from previous studies can not consider the inherent uncertainty of drought because they assess droughts using a pre-defined threshold. In this study, to consider inherent uncertainty embedded in monthly streamflow data, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based drought index (HMDI) was proposed and then probabilistic assessment of hydrologic drought was performed using HMDI instead of using pre-defined threshold. Using monthly streamflow data (1966~2009) of Pyeongchang river and Upper Namhan river provided by Water Management Information System (WAMIS), applying the HMM after moving-averaging the data with 3, 6, 12 month windows, this study calculated the posterior probability of hidden state that becomes the HMDI. For verifying the method, this study compared the HMDI and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) which is one of drought indices using a pre-defined threshold. When using the SSI, only one value can be used as a criterion to determine the drought severity. However, the HMDI can classify the drought condition considering inherent uncertainty in observations and show the probability of each drought condition at a particular point in time. In addition, the comparison results based on actual drought events occurred near the basin indicated that the HMDI outperformed the SSI to represent the drought events.

Analysis of Spatial Precipitation Field Using Downscaling on the Korean Peninsula (상세화 기법을 통한 한반도 공간 강우장 분석)

  • Cho, Herin;Hwang, Seokhwan;Cho, Yongsik;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.1129-1140
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    • 2013
  • Precipitation is one of the important factors in the hydrological cycle. It needs to understand accurate of spatial precipitation field because it has large spatio-temporal variability. Precipitation data obtained through the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 product is inaccurate because it has 25 km space scale. Downscaling of TRMM 3B43 product can increase the accuracy of spatial precipitation field from 25 km to 1 km scale. The relationship between precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) (1 km space scale) which is obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) sensor loaded in Terra satellite is variable at different scales. Therefore regression equations were established and these equations apply to downscaling. Two renormalization strategies, Geographical Difference Analysis (GDA) and Geographical Ratio Analysis (GRA) are implemented for correcting the differences between remote sensing-derived and rain gauge data. As for considering the GDA method results, biases, the root mean-squared error (RMSE), MAE and Index of agreement (IOA) is equal to 4.26 mm, 172.16 mm, 141.95 mm, 0.64 in 2009 and 17.21 mm, 253.43 mm, 310.56 mm, 0.62 in 2011. In this study, we can see the 1km spatial precipitation field map over Korea. It will be possible to get more accurate spatial analysis of the precipitation field through using the additional rain gauges or radar data.

The Characteristics and Survival Rates of Evergreen Broad-Leaved Tree Plantations in Korea (난대상록활엽수종 조림지 활착률과 영향인자)

  • Park, Joon-Hyung;Jung, Su-Young;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Ho-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.4
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    • pp.513-521
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    • 2019
  • With rapid climate change and increasing global warming, the distribution of evergreen broad-leaved trees (EBLTs) is gradually expanding to the inland regions of Korea. The aim of the present study was to analyze the survival rate of 148 EBLT plantations measuring 180 ha and to determine the optimal plantation size that would help in coping with climate change in the warm, temperate climate zone of the Korean peninsula. For enhancing the reliability of our estimated survival model, we selected a set of 11 control variables that may have also influenced the survival rates of the EBLTs in the 148 plantations. The results of partial correlation analysis showed that the survival rate of 67.0±26.9 of the EBLTs in the initial plantation year was primarily correlated with plantation type by the crown closure of the upper story of the forest, wind exposure, and precipitation. For predicting the probability of survival by quantification theory, 148 plots were surveyed and analyzed with 11 environmental site factors. Survival rate was in the order of plantation type by the crown closure of upper story of the forest, wind exposure, total cumulative precipitation for two weeks prior to planting, and slope stiffness in the descending order of score range in the estimated survival model for the EBLTs with the fact that survival rate increased with shade rate of upper story to some extent.

Calculation of Route Doses for Korean-based International Airline Routes using CARI-6 and Estimation of Aircrew Exposure (CARI-6를 이용한 국제선 노선별 선량 및 항공승무원의 피폭선량 평가)

  • Hong, J.H.;Kwon, J.W.;Jung, J.H.;Lee, J.K.
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2004
  • Dose rate characteristics of cosmic radiation field at flight altitudes were analyzed and the route doses to the personnels on board due to cosmic-ray were calculated for Korean-based commercial international airline routes using CARI-6. Annual individual doses to aircrew and the collective effective dose of passengers were estimated by applying the calculated route doses to the flight schedules of aircrew and the air travel statistics of Korea. The result shows that the annual doses to aircrew, around 2.62 mSv, exceed the annual dose limit of public and are comparable to doses of the group of workers occupationally exposed. Therefore it is necessary to consider the frequent flyers as well as the aircrew as the occupational exposure group. The annual collective dose to 11 million Korean passengers in 2001 appeared to be 136 man-Sv. The results should be modified when the dose rates of cosmic radiation at high altitude are revised by taking into account the changes in the radiation weighting factors for protons and neutrons as given in ICRP 92.

A Feasibility Study of Green Frame(GF) for the Implementation of Low-carbon Emissions & Long-life Housing (저탄소 및 장수명 공동주택 구현을 위한 Green Frame(GF)의 타당성 분석)

  • Hong, Won-Kee;Kim, Sun-Kuk;Kim, Hyung-Geun;Yoon, Tae-Ho;Yune, Dai-Young;Kim, Seung-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2010
  • The bearing wall apartments which occupy the majority of multi-residential apartment buildings built in Korea, are known for having limited architectural plan flexibility, posing challenges in terms of maintenance and remodeling. The economic losses and environmental issues resulting from the reconstruction of bearing wall apartments are now accumulating to the extent that they are becoming a national concern. Multi-residential apartment buildings, which are now the dominant form of residence in Korea, must accommodate diverse customer needs and changes in life style. A new concept of Rahmen structure with architectural flexibility is Green Frame. GF multi-residence housing is expected to reduce construction costs and shorten the construction schedule by overcoming the shortcomings of conventional bearing wall apartments. This goal is consistent with the national policies that target the reduction of resource and energy consumption. In addition, GF will be established as a core contributor to achieving a reduction in $CO_2$ emissions, which will enable the sustainable growth of domestic construction industry, and address the low-carbon green growth drive implemented by the government.

The Use of Satellite Image for Uncertainty Analysis in Flood Inundation Mapping (홍수범람도 불확실성 해석을 위한 인공위성사진의 활용)

  • Jung, Younghun;Ryu, Kwanghyun;Yi, Choongsung;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.549-557
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    • 2013
  • An flood inundation map is able to convey spatial distribution of inundation to a decision maker for flood risk management. A roughness coefficient with unclear values and a discharge obtained from the stage-discharge rating equation are key sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model. Also, the uncertainty analysis needs an observation for the flood inundation, and satellite images is useful to obtain spatial distribution of flood. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to quantify uncertainty arising roughness and discharge in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model and a satellite image. To perform this, flood inundations were simulated by HEC-RAS and terrain analysis, and ISODATA (Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis) was used to classify waterbody from Landsat 5TM imagery. The classified waterbody was used as an observation to calculate F-statistic (likelihood measure) in GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). The results from GLUE show that flood inundation areas are 74.59 $km^2$ for lower 5 % uncertainty bound and 151.95 $km^2$ for upper 95% uncertainty bound, respectively. The quantification of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping will play a significant role in realizing the efficient flood risk management.

Economic Injury Level of Thrips tabaci (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on Welsh onions (Allium fistulosum L. var) in the Early Transplanting Stage (파에서 정식초기 파총채벌레의 경제적피해수준 설정)

  • Kang, Taek-Jun;Cho, Myoung-Rae;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.289-293
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to develop economic injury level (EIL) of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci, on welsh onion (Allium fistulosum L. var) in the early transplanting stage. The changes of welsh onion biomass, yield loss, and T. tabaci density were investigated according to the inoculation periods of T. tabaci. In the early transplanting stage of welsh onion, the yield loss (%) increased with increasing inoculation periods: 17.0, 53.3, 38.4, and 80.8% yield loss in 5, 10, 15, and 20 d inoculation periods, respectively. The relationship between Cumulative Insect Days (CID) of T. tabaci and yield loss (%) of welsh onion was well described by a nonlinear logistic equation. Using the estimated equation, EIL of T. tabaci on welsh onion was estimated to 30 CID per plant based on the yield loss 12% (an empirical gain threshold 5% + marketable rate 93% of welsh onion). ET was calculated to 24 CID, which corresponds to 80% of EIL. Until a more defined EIL-model is developed, the present results should be useful for T. tabaci management in early growth stage of welsh onion. The effect of T. tabaci attack on the yield of welsh onion in late growing season (120 days after transplanting) was also examined. The yield of welsh onion increased at a low population density of T. tabaci and decreased at higher densities, showing a typical over-compensatory response.

Proposal for the Model of mobile RPG lobby layoutfrom Viewpoint of UX (UX관점에서의 모바일 RPG 로비 layout 모델 제시)

  • Kim, Seong-gon;Kim, Tae-Gyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.12
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    • pp.467-472
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    • 2019
  • Growing smartphone usage in South Korea has also accelerated the pace of development of mobile games, but competition is intensifying as the market grows. As one of the factors for the success of the game in this mobile game market, UI has been presented, suggesting that the design of such mobile game UI should be approached in terms of designing the user's experience, along with its function, aesthetic expression, function-oriented design and information delivery before. In this paper, we propose an effective lobby layout of mobile RPG using experience among UX factors. Through the layout classification of Ernest Adams and Andrew Rollings, we selected 9 mobile RPGs in the 20th place of google play cumulative sales rankings and analyzed the layout of the lobby. As a result, the lobby layout of the game, which led the first market success of the mobile RPG genre, The result was that it became the standard of the boxed game. It can be interpreted that the lobby layout, which is similar to the game used previously by the user, is effective because low entry barriers and learning are unnecessary due to the experience of using the existing RPG. Future studies may produce a common layout of a broad genre if studies are conducted to measure the optimum UX for other genres than RPG.

Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Based Direction-of-Arrival Estimation of Multiple Sound Sources Using Dual Microphone Array (이중 마이크로폰을 이용한 비음수 행렬분해 기반 다중음원 도래각 예측)

  • Jeon, Kwang Myung;Kim, Hong Kook;Yu, Seung Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes a new nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) based direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation method for multiple sound sources using a dual microphone array. First of all, sound signals coming from the dual microphone array are segmented into consecutive analysis frames, and a steered-response power phase transform (SRP-PHAT) beamformer is applied to each frame so that stereo signals of each frame are represented in a time-direction domain. The time-direction outputs of SRP-PHAT are stored for a pre-defined number of frames, which is referred to as a time-direction block. Next, In order to estimate DOAs robust to noise, each time-direction block is normalized along the time by using a block subtraction technique. After that, an unsupervised NMF method is applied to the normalized time-direction block in order to cluster the directions of each sound source in a multiple sound source environments. In particular, the activation and basis matrices are used to estimate the number of sound sources and their DOAs, respectively. The DOA estimation performance of the proposed method is evaluated by measuring a mean absolute error (MAE) and the standard deviation of errors between the oracle and estimated DOAs under a three source condition, where the sources are located in [$-35{\circ}$, 5m], [$12{\circ}$, 4m], and [$38{\circ}$, 4.m] from the dual microphone array. It is shown from the experiment that the proposed method could relatively reduce MAE by 56.83%, compared to a conventional SRP-PHAT based DOA estimation method.

Development of Neutron, Gamma ray, X-ray Radiation Measurement and Integrated Control System (중성자, 감마선, 엑스선 방사선 측정 및 통합 제어 시스템 개발)

  • Ko, Tae-Young;Lee, Joo-Hyun;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.408-411
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose an integrated control system that measures neutrons, gamma ray, and x-ray. The proposed system is able to monitor and control the data measured and analyzed on the remote or network, and can monitor and control the status of each part of the system remotely without remote control. The proposed system consists of a gamma ray/x-ray sensor part, a neutron sensor part, a main control embedded system part, a dedicated display device and GUI part, and a remote UI part. The gamma ray/x-ray sensor part measures gamma ray and x-ray of low level by using NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. The neutron sensor part measures neutrons using Proportional Counter Detector(low-level neutron) and Ion Chamber Type Detector(high-level neutron). The main control embedded system part detects radiation, samples it in seconds, and converts it into radiation dose for accumulated pulse and current values. The dedicated display device and the GUI part output the radiation measurement result and the converted radiation amount and radiation amount measurement value and provide the user with the control condition setting and the calibration function for the detection part. The remote UI unit collects and stores the measured values and transmits them to the remote monitoring system. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed system, the measurement uncertainty of the neutron detector was measured to less than ${\pm}8.2%$ and the gamma ray and x-ray detector had the uncertainty of less than 7.5%. It was confirmed that the normal operation was not less than ${\pm}15$ percent of the international standard.