• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.93-143
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• 2010

This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

• The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.155-173
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• 2000

The diagnosis in Oriental medicine is done by inspection, auscultation and olfaction, interrogation, four diagnostics of pulse feeling and palpation, and various system of identification like identification according to Qi(vital energy), Xue and body fluids, identification according to fair principles, identification according to principles of Wei, Qi, Ying and Xue, identification according to Sanjiao(the triple heater), identification according to four type physical constitution. Sometimes, symptoms and diagnosis techniques according to symptoms is selectively applied for the diagnosis. Among them the pulse feeling and palpation diagnosis technique using the sense of finger and palm of the hand is divided into feeling of pulse and palpation and pressing maneuver. Pressing maneuver is a diagnosis technique pressing and rubbing the affected part in order to attain data of identification including inside and outside condition of the body with regard to the nature, condition and relative seriousness of disease. There are palpation of the skin, palpation the hand and foot, palpation the chest and the abdomen, palpation shu points in pressing maneuver. The diagnosis of the Back Shu points is a technique to examine the change of disease condition from pressure ache, spontaneous ache, tension, relaxation, solidification revealed through channels and collaterals. I investigates starting disease and an attack of disease of twelve pulse and pulse condition through the study relative to the substance and technique of pressing maneuver, and adjusts diagnosis techniques of a region for acupuncture and matters to be attended. The conclusions are as follows. 1. The Shu or stream points in which pathogenic factors go are important to medical treatment of dormant diseases like bowels disease, cold symptom complex and insufficiency symptom complex. 2. Disease classified by system is diagnosed by the condition of process part like pro-trusion, cave-in, tension, relaxation, pressure ache through palpating the Shu or stream points, that is pressing upward or downward left and right sides of the backbone process by hands. 3. In real clinic pressing maneuver of one's back side is very important to patient's diagnosis treatment. Thus, pressing maneuver of one's back side have to be done without omission. 4. Diagnosis must be accomplished through the perception about the diversity of diagnosis technique of bowels disease, the exact knowledge about pressing maneuver of one's back side for enlargement of treatment range and rising of treatment rate, and pressing maneuver of the Shu or the stream points.