• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기온예측모형

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Estimation of Water Temperature by Heat Balance Method in Paddy Field. (열수지법(熱收支法)에 의한 벼논의 수온추정(水溫推定))

  • Lee, Jeong-Taek;Yun, Seong-Ho;Im, Jung-Nam;Takami, Shinich
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.30-36
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    • 1989
  • To determine irrigated water temperature under the rice plant canopy, micrometeorological elements air temperature, relative humidity, water temperature, solar radiation, and the rice leaf area index the rice plant canopywere measured. Water temperature under the canopy was also estimated from these data. The results are as follows ; 1. Maximum and minimum temperatures of water in the paddy field were higher about $1-2^{\circ}C$ than those of air temperature. 2. Mean water temperature under the canopy became lower than mean air temperature when the leaf area indices were greater than 4, because of decreased light penetration rates 3. Penetration amounts of net radiation under the canopy can be estimated by an exponential equation 4. Estimated water temperatures under the canopy by a combination method model was adaptable in Suweon, a plain area, but its accuracy was lower in Jinbu, an alpine area.

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Outlook on Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers in the Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate (신 기후변화시나리오 조건에서 한반도 봄꽃 개화일 전망)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Cheon, Jung-Hwa;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2013
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the geospatial characteristics of blooming date migration in three major spring flowers across North and South Korea as influenced by climate change. A thermal time-based phenology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature was adjusted for the key parameters (i.e., reference temperature, chilling requirement, heating requirement) used for predicting blooming of forsythia, azaleas, and Japanese cherry. The model was run by the RCP 8.5 projected temperature outlook over the Korean Peninsula and produced the mean booming dates for the three climatological normal years in the future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) at a 12.5 km grid spacing. Comparison against the observed blooming date patterns in the baseline climate (1971-2000) showed that there will be a substantial acceleration in blooming dates of the three species, resulting in cherry booming in February and flowers of azaleas and forsythia found at the top of mountain Baikdu by the 2071-2100 period. Flowering dates of the three species in the near future (2011-2040) may be accelerated by 3-5 days at minimum and 10-11 days at maximum compared with that in the baseline period (1971-2000). Those values corresponding to the middle future (2041-2070) can be from a minimum of 9-11 days to a maximum of 23-24 days. Blooming date of Japanese cherry can be accelerated by 26 days on average for the far future (2071-2100). The acceleration seems more prominent at islands and coastal plain areas than over inland mountainous areas.

A Study on High-resolution Numerical Simulation with Detailed Classification of Landuse and Anthropogenic Heat in Seoul Metropolitan area (수도권지역의 지표이용도 및 인공열 상세적용에 따른 고해상도 수치실험 연구)

  • Lee, Hankyung;Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.232-245
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the high-resolution numerical simulation results considering landuse characteristics are analyzed by using single layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) in Weather Research Forecast (WRF). For this, the impact of urban parameters such as roughness length and anthropogenic heat in UCM is analyzed. These values are adjusted to Seoul metropolitan area in Korea. The results of assessment are verified against observation from surface and flux tower. Forecast system equipped with UCM shows an overall improvement in the simulations of meteorological parameters, especially temperature at 2 m, surface sensible and latent heat flux. Major contribution of UCM is appreciably found in urban area rather than non-urban. The non-urban area is indirectly affected. In simulated latent heat flux, applying UCM is possible to simulate the change similarly with observations on urban area. Anthropogenic heat employed in UCM shows the most realistic results in terms of temperature and surface heat flux, indicating thermodynamic treatment of UCM could enhance the skills of high resolution forecast model in urban and non-urban area.

Finite Difference Model of Unsaturated Soil Water Flow Using Chebyshev Polynomials of Soil Hydraulic Functions and Chromatographic Displacement of Rainfall (Chebyshev 다항식에 의한 토양수분특성 및 불포화 수리전도도 추정과 부분 치환 원리에 의한 강우 분포를 이용한 토양수분 불포화 이동 유한차분 수리모형)

  • Ro, Hee-Myong;Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Seung-Heon;Lee, Goon-Taek;Yun, Seok-In;Noh, Young-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.181-192
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    • 2003
  • We developed a mathematical simulation model to portray the vertical distribution of soil water from the measured weather data and the known soil hydraulic properties, and then compared simulation results with the periodically measured soil water profiles obtained on Jungdong sandy loam to verify the model, In this model, we solved potential-based Richards' equation by the implicit finite difference method superimposed on the predictor-corrector scheme. We presumed that: soil hydraulic properties are homogeneous; soil water flows isothermally; hysteresis is not considered; no vapor flows; no heat transfers into the soil profiles; and water added to soil surface is distributed along the soil profile following partial displacement principle. The input data were broadly classified into two groups: (1) daily weather data such as rainfall, maximum and minimum air temperatures, relative humidity and solar radiation and (2) soil hydraulic data to approximate unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and water retention. Each hydraulic polynomial function approximated using the Chebyshev polynomial and least square difference technique in tandem showed a fairly good fit of the given set of data. Vertical distribution of soil water as approximations to the Richards' equation subject to changing surface and phreatic boundaries was solved numerically during 53 days with a comparatively large time increment, and this pattern agreed well with field neutron scattering data, except for the surface 0.1 m slab.

Evaluating meteorological and hydrological impacts on forest fire occurrences using partial least squares-structural equation modeling: a case of Gyeonggi-do (부분최소제곱 구조방정식모형을 이용한 경기도 지역 산불 발생 요인에 대한 기상 및 수문학적 요인의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Dongwook;Yoo, Jiyoung;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2021
  • Forest fires have frequently occurred around the world, and the damages are increasing. In Korea, most forest fires are initiated by human activities, but climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed have a great impact on combustion environment of forest fires. In this study, therefore, based on statistics of forest fires in Gyeonggi-do over the past five years, meteorological and hydrological factors (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and drought) were selected in order to quantitatively investigate causal relationships with forest fire. We applied a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM), which is suitable for analyzing causality and predicting latent variables. The overall results indicated that the measurement and structural models of the PLS-SEM were statistically significant for all evaluation criteria, and meteorological factors such as humidity, temperature, and wind speed affected by amount of -0.42, 0.23 and 0.15 of standardized path coefficient, respectively, on forest fires, whereas hydrological factor such as drought had an effect of 0.23 on forest fires. Therefore, as a practical method, the suggested model can be used for analyzing and evaluating influencing factors of forest fire and also for planning response and preparation of forest fire disasters.

Eco-river Restoration and River Management in Response to Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 생태하천 복원 및 관리방향에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hyeongsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2014
  • In this study, using a complex of physical, chemical, and biological evaluation factors, the ecological vulnerability to climate change were evaluated at each river in the Nakdong river basin. First, runoff, sediment rate, and low flow discharge changes according to AIB climate change scenario using the SWAT model were simulated. Also, for the assessment of chemical and biological factors, 48 points that water quality monitoring sites and ecological health measurement points are matched with each other was selected. The water quality data of BOD and T-P and the biological data of IBI and KSI in each point were reflected in the assessment. Also, the future rise in water temperature of the rivers in Nakdong river basin was predicted, and the impact of water temperature rise on the fish habitat was evaluated. The top 10 most vulnerable points was presented through a summary of each evaluation factor. This study has a contribution to river restoration or management plan according to the characteristics of each river.

Calibration Method of Vehicle Weight Data from Weigh-In-Motion System According to Temperature Effects (온도의 영향에 대한 Weigh-In-Motion 시스템의 차량중량자료 보정기법)

  • Hwan, Eui-Seung;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.187-196
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the calibration method for temperature effects to improve the accuracy of the Weigh-In-Motion(WIM) system for collecting long-term truck weight data. WIM system was installed at a location where the truck traffic volume is high and weight data has been collected from January 2010. In this study, as a calibration measure, the first axle weight of Truck Type 10, the semi tractor-trailer is used based on the fact that the first axle weight is relatively constant, independent of the cargo weight. From this fact, calibration equations are developed from the relationship between the axle weight and the temperature(daily mean, maximum and minimum). Analysis on calibrated weight data shows adequacy of the proposed calibration method. Results of this study can be used to improve the accuracy of the WIM system and to carry out more rational design of pavement and bridge structures.

Estimation of Available Recurrent Water in Small Watershed of Agricultural Reservoirs (농업용 저수지 소유역 순환용수 가용수량 추정)

  • Bang, Na-Kyoung;Nam, Won-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.59-59
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    • 2021
  • 최근 기후변화에 따른 가뭄의 상습화와 농촌용수 수요증가에 대비할 수 있는 가뭄대책의 수립을 통한 용수부족 문제에 대한 근본적인 해소의 필요성 증가하고 있는 가운데 기존 수자원을 효율적으로 활용하기 위한 4차 산업기술을 적용한 순환형 농업용수 관리시스템의 개발이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구는 2017년 가뭄이 극심하였던 충청남도 대사저수지, 풍전저수지와 경기도 마둔저수지에 대하여 기상분석, 관개분석, 수리분석 등을 수행하여 이수관리, 관개만족도, 회귀수의 재이용 등을 예측 관리할 수 있는 순환형 농업용수 관리 시스템을 개발하여 적용하고자, 선제적으로 가뭄 발생 들녘의 용수공급을 위한 농업용 저수지 소유역 순환용수 가용수량을 추정하였다. 2010년부터 2019년까지의 강우유출 모형을 적용하기 위하여 수원, 천안, 이천관측소의 강우, 최고/최저기온, 상대습도, 풍속, 일사량자료를 일자료로 활용하였고, 10년 평균 유출량을 순별로 산정하여 기본자료로 구축하여 주요 취입보 유입수량을 산정하였다. 주요 취입보 유입수량 산정과 취입보의 용적을 산출하기 위하여 시설별 높이차와 하천의 길이 및 폭을 측정하였으며 물수지는 보유용수량과 유입량의 합에서 공급수량을 제외한 값으로 정의하였고, 내용적을 초과하는 경우에는 범람되는 것으로 구현하여 마둔, 대사, 풍전저수지의 임의 지점(하천)별로 순환용수 가용을 위한 모의를 실시하였다. 공간 범위는 평야부 말단부로 선정하였고, 가상으로 약 2m 높이의 임시보를 적용하여 관개기 강우유출수 및 퇴수에 의한 가용수량을 산정하였다. 이를 위하여 하천의 폭과 표고를 이용하여 길이를 산출하여, 내용적을 산출하였다. 소유역별로 TANK 모형적용 결과를 입력자료로 활용하여 일 공급 양수량을 내용적 최대로 하였을 때 회복 기간에 대한 모의를 수행하였다. 강우유출수에 의한 소유역별 가용수량을 4월부터 모의 분석한 결과 유역별로 차이는 발생하지만 만수위에 도달하는 기간은 특이 유역을 제외하고는 약 50일 이상 걸리는 것으로 분석되었고, 관개기가 계속되면서 회복되는 기간이 짧아지는 경향을 보였다. 이를 통해 소유역별 농업용수 부족분 투입을 위한 위치선정과 용수량 판단이 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

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Predicting the Potential Habitat, Host Plants, and Geographical Distribution of Pochazia shantungensis (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) in Korea (갈색날개매미충(Pochazia shantungensis) (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae)의 기주식물, 발생지역 및 잠재서식지 예측)

  • Kim, Dong Eon;Lee, Heejo;Kim, Mi Jeong;Lee, Do-Hun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.179-189
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    • 2015
  • In 2014, surveys were conducted in Korea to study the geographical distribution, host plants, and potential habitats of Pochazia shantungensis. The occurrence of P. shantungensis was confirmed in 43 cities and counties nationwide, and identified for the first time in Gyeongsangbuk-do. P. shantungensis has a wide range of diverse host plants comprising 113 species in 53 families, including crops, fruits, and forest trees. Since the hemipteran was first reported in Korea, 138 species from 62 families have been identified as P. shantungensis host plants. This insect feeds on the following major host plants: Malus pumila, Aralia elata, Styrax japonicus, Salix gracilistyla, Broussonetia kazinoki, Albizia julibrissin, Ailanthus altissima, Castanea crenata, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Cornus officinalis. Potential habitat was analyzed in the present study using the Maxent model with 12 variables (8 climate, 1 land cover, 1 forest type, 1 ecological zoning, and 1 distance). The model ROC AUC was 0.884, indicating a high accuracy. In the present study, precipitation of warmest quater, mean temperature of warmest quarter, forest type, and land cover were the most significant factors affecting P. shantungensis distribution, and habitat.

Water Quality Analysis of Hongcheon River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Duckhwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Kim, Jungwook;Han, Daegun;Hong, Ilpyo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.348-358
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    • 2015
  • Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.