Streamflow response to climate change during the wet and dry seasons in South Korea under a CMIP5 climate model (CMIP5 기반 건기 및 우기 시 국내 하천유량의 변화전망 및 분석)
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- Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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- v.51 no.spc
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- pp.1091-1103
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- 2018
Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.
These studies were made at Suwon in 1972 and at Suwon, Iri, and Kwangju in 1973 to investigate grain filling process and variation of grain quality of NB 68513 and Caprock as hard red winter wheat, Suke ＃169 as soft red winter wheat variety and Yungkwang as semi-hard winter variety, grown under-three different fertilizer levels and seeding dates. Other experiments were conducted to find the effects of temperature, humidity and light intensity on the grain filling process and grain quality of Yungkwang and NB 68513 wheat varieties. These, experiments were conducted at Suwon in 1973 and 1974. 1. Grain filling process of wheat cultivars: 1) The frequency distribution of a grain weight shows that wider distribution of grain weight was associated with large grain groups rather than small grain group. In the large grain groups, the frequency was mostly concentrated near mean value, while the frequency was dispersed over the values in the small grain group. 2) The grain weight was more affected by the grain thickness and width than by grain length. 3) The grain weight during the ripening period was rapidly increased from 14 days after flowering to 35 days in Yungkwang and from 14 days after flowering to 28 days in NB 68513. The large grain group, Yungkwang was rather slowly increased and took a longer period in increase of endosperm ratio of grain than the small grain group, NB 68513. 4) In general, the 1, 000 grain weight was reduced under high temperature, low humidity, while it was increased under low temperature and high humidity condition, and under high temperature and humidity condition. The effect of shading on grain weight was greater in high temperature than in low temperature condition and no definite tendency was found in high humidity condition. 5) The effects of temperature, humidity and shading on 1, 000 grain weight were greater in large-grain group, Yungkwang than in small grain group, NB 68513. Highly significant positive correlation was found between 1, 000 grain weight and days to ripening. 6) The 1, 000 grain weight and test weight were increased more or less as the fertilizer levels applied were increased. However, the rate of increasing 1, 000 grain weight was low when fertilizer levels were increased from standard to double. The 1, 000 grain weight was high when planted early. Such tendency was greater in Suwon than in Kwangju or Iri area. 2. Milling quality: 7) The milling rate in a same group of varieties was higher under the condition of low temperature, high humidity and early maturing culture which were responsible for increasing 1, 000 grain weight. No definite relations were found along with locations. 8) In the varieties tested, the higher milling rate was found in large grain variety, Yungkwang, and the lowest milling rate was obtained from Suke ＃ 169, the small grain variety. But the small grained hard wheat variety such as Caprock and NB 68513 showed higher milling rate compared with the soft wheat variety, Suke ＃ 169. 9) There were no great differences of ash content due to location, fertilizer level and seeding date while remarkable differences due to variety were found. The ash content was high in the hard wheat varieties such as NB 68513, Caprock and low in soft wheat varieties such as Yungkwang and Suke ＃ 169. 3. Protein content: 10) The protein content was increased under the condition of high temperature, low humidity and shading, which were responsible for reduction of 1, 000 grain weight. The varietal differences of protein content due to high temperature, low humidity and shading conditions were greater in Yungkwang than in NB 68513. 11) The high content of protein in grain within one to two weeks after flowering might be due to the high ratio of pericarp and embryo to endosperm. As grains ripen, the effects of embryo and pericarp on protein content were decreased, reducing protein content. However, the protein content was getting increased from three or four weeks after flowering, and maximized at seven weeks after flowering. The protein content of grain at three to four weeks after flowering increased as the increase of 1, 000 grain weight. But the protein content of matured grain appeared to be affected by daily temperature on calender rather than by duration of ripening period. 12) Highly significant positive correlation value was found between the grain protein content and flour protein content. 13) The protein content was increased under the high level of fertilizers and late seeding. The local differences of protein content were greater in Suwon than in Kwangju and Iri. 14) Protein content in the varieties tested were high in Yungkwang, NB 68513 and Caprock, and low in Suke ＃ 169. However, variation in protein content due to the cultural methods was low in Suke ＃ 169. 15) Protein yield per unit area was increased in accordance with increase of fertilizer levels and early maturing culture. However, nitrogen fertilizer was utilized rather effectively in early maturing culture and Yungkwang was the highest in protein yield per unit area. 4. Physio-chemical properties of wheat flour: 16) Sedimentation value was higher under the conditions of high temperature, low humidity and high levels of fertilizers than under the conditions of low temperature, high moisture and low levels of fertilizers. Such differences of sedimentation values were more apparent in NB 68513 and Caprock than Yungkwang and Suke ＃ 169. The local difference of sedimentation value was greater in Suwon than in Kwangju and Iri. Even though the sedimentation value was highly correlated with protein content of grain, the high humidity was considered one of the factors affecting sedimentation value. 17) Changes of Pelshenke values due to the differences of cultural practices and locations were generally coincident with sedimentation values. 18) The mixing time required for mixogram was four to six minutes in NB 68513, five to seven minutes in Cap rock. The great variation of mixing time for Yungkwang and Suke ＃ 169 due to location and planting conditions was found. The mixing height and area were high in hard wheat than in soft wheat. Variation of protein content due to cultural methods were inconsistent. However, the pattern of mixogram were very much same regardless the treatments applied. With this regard, it could be concluded that the mixogram is a kind of method expressing the specific character of the variety. 19) Even though the milling property of NB 68513 and Caprock was deteriorated under either high temperature and low humidity of high fertilizer levels and late seeding conditions, baking quality was better due to improved physio-chemical properties of flour. In contrast, early maturing culture deteriorated physio-chemical properties, milling property of grain and grain protein yield per unit area was increased. However, it might be concluded that the hard wheat production of NB 68513 and Caprock for baking purpose could be done better in Suwon than in Iri or Kwangju area. 5. Interrelationships between the physio-chemical characters of wheat flour: 20) Physio-chemical properties of flour didn't have direct relationship with milling rate and ash content. Low grain weight produced high protein content and better physio-chemical flour properties. 21) In hard wheat varieties like NB 68513 and Caprock, protein content was significantly correlated with sedimentation value, Pelshenke value and mixing height. However, gluten strength and baking quality were improved by the increased protein content. In Yungkwang and Suk ＃ 169, protein content was correlated with sedimentation value, but no correlations were found with Pelshenke value and mixing height. Consequently, increase of protein content didn't improve the gluten strength in soft wheat. 22) The highly significant relationships between protein content and gluten strength and sedimentation . value, and between Pelshenke value, mixogram and gluten strength indicated that the determination of mixogram and Pelshenke value are useful for de terming soft and hard type of varieties. Determination of sedimentation value is considered useful method for quality evaluation of wheat grain under different cultural practices.
The results of the study on the consumptine use of irrigated water in paddy fields during the growing season of rice plants are summarized as follows. 1. Transpiration and evaporation from water surface. 1) Amount of transpiration of rice plant increases gradually after transplantation and suddenly increases in the head swelling period and reaches the peak between the end of the head swelling poriod and early period of heading and flowering. (the sixth period for early maturing variety, the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties), then it decreases gradually after that, for early, medium and late maturing varieties. 2) In the transpiration of rice plants there is hardly any difference among varieties up to the fifth period, but the early maturing variety is the most vigorous in the sixth period, and the late maturing variety is more vigorous than others continuously after the seventh period. 3) The amount of transpiration of the sixth period for early maturing variety of the seventh period for medium and late maturing variety in which transpiration is the most vigorous, is 15% or 16% of the total amount of transpiration through all periods. 4) Transpiration of rice plants must be determined by using transpiration intensity as the standard coefficient of computation of amount of transpiration, because it originates in the physiological action.(Table 7) 5) Transpiration ratio of rice plants is approximately 450 to 480 6) Equations which are able to compute amount of transpiration of each variety up th the heading-flowering peried, in which the amount of transpiration of rice plants is the maximum in this study are as follows: Early maturing variety ; Y=0.658+1.088X Medium maturing variety ; Y=0.780+1.050X Late maturing variety ; Y=0.646+1.091X Y=amount of transpiration ; X=number of period. 7) As we know from figure 1 and 2, correlation between the amount evaporation from water surface in paddy fields and amount of transpiration shows high negative. 8) It is possible to calculate the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field for varieties used in this study on the base of ratio of it to amount of evaporation by atmometer(Table 11) and Table 10. Also the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field is to be computed by the following equations until the period in which it is the minimum quantity the sixth period for early maturing variety and the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties. Early maturing variety ; Y=4.67-0.58X Medium maturing variety ; Y=4.70-0.59X Late maturing variety ; Y=4.71-0.59X Y=amount of evaporation from water surface in the paddy field X=number of period. 9) Changes in the amount of evapo-transpiration of each growing period have the same tendency as transpiration, and the maximum quantity of early maturing variety is in the sixth period and medium or late maturing varieties are in the seventh period. 10) The amount of evapo-transpiration can be calculated on the base of the evapo-transpiration intensity (Table 14) and Tablet 12, for varieties used in this study. Also, it is possible to compute it according to the following equations with in the period of maximum quantity. Early maturing variety ; Y=5.36+0.503X Medium maturing variety ; Y=5.41+0.456X Late maturing variety ; Y=5.80+0.494X Y=amount of evapo-transpiration. X=number of period. 11) Ratios of the total amount of evapo-transpiration to the total amount of evaporation by atmometer through all growing periods, are 1.23 for early maturing variety, 1.25 for medium maturing variety, 1.27 for late maturing variety, respectively. 12) Only air temperature shows high correlation in relation between amount of evapo-transpiration and climatic conditions from the viewpoint of Korean climatic conditions through all growing periods of rice plants. 2. Amount of percolation 1) The amount of percolation for computation of planning water requirment ought to depend on water holding dates. 3. Available rainfall 1) The available rainfall and its coefficient of each period during the growing season of paddy fields are shown in Table 8. 2) The ratio (available coefficient) of available rainfall to the amount of rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields seems to be from 65% to 75% as the standard in Korea. 3) Available rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields in the common year is estimated to be about 550 millimeters. 4. Effects to be influenced upon percolation by transpiration of rice plants. 1) The stronger absorbtive action is, the more the amount of percolation decreases, because absorbtive action of rice plant roots influence upon percolation(Table 21, Table 22) 2) In case of planting of rice plants, there are several entirely different changes in the amount of percolation in the forenoon, at night and in the afternoon during the growing season, that is, is the morning and at night, the amount of percolation increases gradually after transplantation to the peak in the end of July or the early part of August (wast or soil temperature is the highest), and it decreases gradually after that, neverthless, in the afternoon, it decreases gradually after transplantation to be at the minimum in the middle of August, and it increases gradually after that. 3) In spite of the increasing amount of transpiration, the amount of daytime percolation decreases gadually after transplantation and appears to suddenly decrease about head swelling dates or heading-flowering period, but it begins to increase suddenly at the end of August again. 4) Changs of amount of percolation during all growing periods show some variable phenomena, that is, amount of percolation decreases after the end of July, and it increases in end August again, also it decreases after that once more. This phenomena may be influenced complexly from water or soil temperature(night time and forenoon) as absorbtive action of rice plant roots. 5) Correlation between the amount of daytime percolation and the amount of transpiration shows high negative, amount of night percolation is influenced by water or soil temperature, but there is little no influence by transpiration. It is estimated that the amount of a daily percolation is more influenced by of other causes than transpiration. 6) Correlation between the amount of night percoe, lation and water or soil temp tureshows high positive, but there is not any correlation between the amount of forenoon percolation or afternoon percolation and water of soil temperature. 7) There is high positive correlation which is r=+0.8382 between the amount of daily percolation of planting pot of rice plant and amount and amount of daily percolation of non-planting pot. 8) The total amount of percolation through all growin. periods of rice plants may be influenced more from specific permeability of soil, water of soil temperature, and otheres than transpiration of rice plants.