• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기상 계측

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설계홍수의 추정

  • Kim, Seung;Kim, Nam-Won;Kim, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Hyeong-Seop
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1996.01a
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    • pp.1-95
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    • 1996
  • 전국에 산재한 수위관측지점의 관측개시 이후의 모든 홍수위 자료를 구성하고 주요 지점의 개별 홍수사상에 대한 단위도를 유도하여 지점별 대표단위도를 작성하였다. 또한 유도된 대표단위도를 이용하여 미계측 지점에 대한 단위도와 첨두홍수량을 추정하였다. 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1991년과 1992년에 이어서 1993년에도 홍수위자료의 수집과 정리에 역점을 두어 관업을 수행하였으며 조선하천조사서, 조선하천조사연보, 한국수문조사연보 등의 각종 문헌에 수록되어 있는 주요 홍수사상의 수문곡선을 판독하여 전국 220개의 수위관측지점에 대하여 총 5,735개 사상의 홍수위 자료를 구축하였으며 이를 자료집으로 구성하였다. 홍수사상에 대한 단위도를 유도하기 위하여 시우량자료는 기상청 자료를 중심으로 구성하였으며 효율적이고 안정적인 능형회귀방법을 이용한 단위도 유도 방법을 적용하여 사용자가 화면을 통해서 홍수사상과 유도된 1mm-1hr 단위도를 보고 적합한 단위도를 선택할 수 있도록 단위도 유도 프로그램을 개발하였다. 대부분의 홍수사상이 지정홍수위 이상인 범위만이 정리되었는데 지정홍수위 이하의 부분은 일수위로부터 읽은 값을 참고로 하고 대수보간을 하여 자료를 구성하도록 하였다. 개발된 단위도 유도 프로그램을 사용하여 지점별 홍수사상별로 단위도를 유도하여 유역별로 총 65개 지점에 대하여 952개의 단위도를 유도하였는데 한강 유역은 16개 지점에서 263개의 단위도를 유도하였고 낙동강 유역은 28개 지점에 460개 단위도를, 금강 유역은 7개 지점 82개 단위도를, 영산강 유역은 7개 지점에서 88개 단위도를, 섬진강 유역은 7개 지점에서 59개의 단위도를 유도하였다. 유도된 단위도들을 지점별로 평균하고, 이를 참고로 하여 Nash 모형을 이용한 지점별 대표단위도를 유도하여 정리하였다. 또한 유도된 대표단위도를 유역에 따라서 지점별로 비교하여 상하류간의 관계를 분석하였으며 신뢰할만한 결과로 판단되었다. 유도된 대표단위도의 첨두유량 및 첨두시간을 유역면적 등과 비교하여 그 관계를 검토하였다. 유역면적과 첨두유량 및 유역면적과 첨두시간의 관계는 비교적 일정한 경향을 보여주었으며 이를 이용하여 미계측 유역의 1mm-1hr 단위도를 추정하였다. 2년 빈도의 설계강우량에 대해서 유역면적이 50, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 20,000$\textrm{km}^2$인 경우 첨두홍수를 추정하였으며 유출률을 0.9로 할 때 4장에서 분석, 제시된 지점별 평균연최대홍수와 비슷한 값을 보여주었다. 따라서 미계측 유역에서는 설계강우량만 주어진다면 본 연구에서 추정된 미계측 유역의 단위도 추정 방법을 이용하여 첨두홍수를 추정할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구의 단위도 유도 대상 지점은 전국의 수위관측지점이었으나 5대강을 제외한 기타 수계에 있어서는 수위자료뿐만 아니라 유량측정성과도 미비하여 단위도 유도를 하지 못하였다. 또한 유역면적 500$\textrm{km}^2$ 이하에서는 홍수위 자료는 있어도 유량측정성과가 없는 지점이 많았고 육량측정성과가 수 회에 불과한 지점이 대부분이었기 때문에 단위도를 유도할 수 없었다. 따라서 분석된 결과를 소유역으로 연장하는 것은 다소 무리가 따르며 대략 어느 정도가 될 것이라는 참고자료로 이용하는 것이 바람직하다고 본다. 현재의 여건에서는 소유역의 유량측정성과를 확충하는 일이 급선무일 것이다. 유역면적이 작은 수위 관측 지점에 대한 지속적인 유량측정이 절실히 요구된다.

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A study on estimation of lowflow indices in ungauged basin using multiple regression (다중회귀분석을 이용한 미계측 유역의 갈수지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ga Kyun;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1193-1201
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to develop a regression model that estimates a low-flow index that can be applied to ungauged basins. A total of 30 midsized basins in South Korea use long-term runoff data provided by the National Integrated Water Management System (NIWMS) to calculate average low-flow, average minimum streamflow, and low-flow index duration and frequency. This information is used in the correlation analysis with 18 basin factors and 3 climate change factors to identify the basin area, average basin altitude, average basin slope, water system density, runoff curve number, annual evapotranspiration, and annual precipitation in the low-flow index regression model. This study evaluates the model's accuracy by using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) for 10 ungauged, verified basins and compares them with the previous model's low-flow calculations to determine the effectiveness of the newly developed model. Comparative analysis indicates that the new regression model produces average low-flow, attributed to the consideration of varied basin and hydrologic factors during the new model's development.

A Study on the Evaluation of the Appropriateness of the Control of Departure of Tugs Based on the Analysis of Ship Dynamic Motion (선체운동 해석 기반의 예인선 출항통제 적정성 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Tae-Hoon Kim;Yong-Ung Yu;Yun-sok Lee;Young-Joong Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.307-315
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    • 2023
  • Korea controls the departure of vessels based on the Maritime Safety Act such that only ships with seaworthiness can navigate in bad weather, but scientific evaluation results and quantitative basis for the designation of ships subject to control are insufficient. Opinions for improvement are being raised for a reasonable departure control operation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the adequacy of the current departure control standards through actual measurement of tugboats, which are the type of vessels subject to control when a wind and wave advisory is effective, and to present quantitative grounds for improvement of controls. A sensor was installed on the tugboat to measure the ship's three-axis motion and hull acceleration, and the hull motion performance was measured by operating in the sea area with a significant wave height of 3 m. The measured values were compared and analyzed based on seaworthiness evaluation factors and limit value standards. The actual ship was excluded from the current control standard according to tonnage, but as a result of the analysis, the pitch value exceeded the operation standard, and a risk to navigation safety existed. The results of this study suggest the need for additional actual measurement studies that can represent various ship types and specifications and review ship departure control targets.

Alleviation Effect of Pear Production Loss Due to Frequency of Typhoons in the Main Pear Production Area (배 특화지역에서의 태풍내습 빈도에 의한 낙과 피해 경감 효과)

  • Jeong, Jae Won;Kim, Seung Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to analyze the effect of typhoons on pear production. Pears are typical fruits that are vulnerable to typhoon damages, so typhoons are negatively associated with pear productivity. However, relatively less pear damages by typhoons in the main pear production area, comparing to the average in Korea, have been reported. The main production area seems to adopt better agricultural techniques or practices to cope with natural disasters such as typhoons. Thus, this study tests the hypothesis that there are differences of production losses due to typhoons between the main pear production area and the rest using the stochastic frontier analysis. The main production area is defined by Location Quotient Index (LQI), and we found that LQI had a significant effect to decrease the productivity losses in the main production areas, which shows that those production areas alleviated the pear production loss due to typhoons.

Prediction of the Flight Times of Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes in Paddy Fields Based on RCP 8.5 Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 논 서식 애물땡땡이 (Sternolophus rufipes)와 잔물땡땡이(Hydrochara affinis)의 비행시기 예측)

  • Choi, Soon-Kun;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Choe, Lak-Jung;Eo, Jinu;Bang, Hea-Son
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.16-29
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    • 2016
  • The total area of paddy field was estimated to be 55 % of the cultivated lands in South Korea, which is approximately 1 million hectares. Organisms inhabiting paddy fields if they are sensitive to environmental changes can be environmental indicator of paddy fields. Biological indicators such as phenology and distributional range are evaluated as intuitive and quantitative method to analyze the impact of climate change. This study aims to estimate flight time change of Hydrophilidae species' based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Unmanned monitoring systems were installed in Haenam, Buan, Dangjin and Cheorwon relative to the latitudinal gradient. In the three regions excepting Cheorwon, it was able to measure the abundance of flying Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes. Degree-day for the flight time was determined based either on field measurement values and estimates of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s from KMA climate change scenario data. As a result, it is found that date of both species of initial flight becomes 15 days earlier, that of peak flight becomes 22 days earlier and that of final flight does 27 days earlier in 2080s compared to 2020s. The climate change impact on flight time is greater in coastal area, rural area and valley than inland area, urban area and plan. H. affinis and S. rufipes can be used as climate change indicator species.

Evaluation of sensor and control interface modules for greenhouse environment control (온실환경 제어를 위한 센서 및 제어 인터페이스 모듈의 성능평가)

  • Lee, Won-Jae;Duc, Ngo Viet;Sung, Nam-Seok;Seo, Young-Woo;Kim, Yong-Joo;Chung, Sun-Ok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2017.04a
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    • pp.137-137
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    • 2017
  • 현재 상용화되어 있는 온실 환경제어시스템의 S/W 및 H/W는 서로 호환이 되지 않아 농민들이 원하는 맞춤형 복합 환경 제어시스템을 운영하는데 어려움이 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 다양한 제어알고리즘 및 장비를 적용시킬 수 있는 호환성이 향상된 온실 환경 제어인터페이스 모듈 성능평가를 목표로 한다. 센서 및 제어 인터페이스 모듈 성능평가를 위해 사용된 제어 시스템은 8 bit MCU가 적용된 전용 개발보드를 사용하였고, RS-232 통신 케이블을 사용하여 온실 환경 측정 데이터 값을 PC에서 수신할 수 있도록 하였다. 또한, 창개폐기, 환풍기를 사용하여 온실 내부 온/습도 환경조성을 하였다. 실험은 정오부터 제어장비를 작동시킨 후 1시간 간격으로 총 3시간 동안의 온실 내 온/습도의 변화량을 계측하였다. 3시간 중 1시간동안의 온/습도 값의 변화량을 계측한 결과 평균값은 각각 $33.21^{\circ}C$, 34.94%이었고 표준편차는 각각 $1.44^{\circ}C$, 2.74% 이었다. 제어 알고리즘은 단순한 ON/OFF 방법을 사용 하였고 총 2가지 제어장비를 사용하였으며 모두 정상 작동 하였다. 1시간동안 온실의 온도는 $30^{\circ}C{\sim}35^{\circ}C$사이를 유지하였으며, 습도는 30%~ 40% 사이로 최초 실험 목표였던 온실 내부의 온/습도 범위를 유지하였다. 이번 실험은 ON/OFF 방법의 제어 알고리즘을 사용하였지만 더욱 정밀한 온실 환경제어를 위하여 PID, 퍼지 제어 알고리즘을 추가하여 기상환경에 따른 제어범위를 더욱 세밀화 할 수 있도록 설계한다면 제어장비에 대한 효율성이 향상될 것이라 기대한다.

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The Stability Evaluation of Concrete Face Rockfill Dam(CFRD) Using Settlement Measured at the Dam Crest and Kelvin Model (계측자료 및 Kelvin 모델에 의한 콘크리트 표면차수벽형 석괴댐(CFRD)의 안정성 평가)

  • Lee, Heeman;Lim, Heuidae;Cho, Gyechun;Song, Kiil
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the projects which are to increase the capacity of the flood control are being actively performed because of the abnormal climate changes throughout the country. In this study, the regression analysis was performed using both Kelvin model and the real settlement measured at the crest of the existing concrete face rockfill dam(CFRD) to estimate the long-term deformation behavior characteristics such as creep which occurs without additional load. In addition, the effects on changes in physical properties (E, G, K) of the dam construction materials by deformation characteristics of the dam were evaluated, and the reasonable stability analysis method of the dam was proposed to obtain the long-term stability considering the changes in physical properties induced by the long-term deformation behavior in case of heightening the existing dams.

Estimation of the Flash Flood Index by the Probable Rainfall Data for Ungauged Catchments (미계측 유역에서의 확률강우에 대한 돌발홍수지수 산정)

  • Kim, Eung-Seok;Choi, Hyun-Il;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2010
  • As there occurs recently and frequently a flash flood due to the climate change, a sudden local flood of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time over a small area, it is increasing that significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as the whole world. Since a flash flood usually occurs as the result of intense rainfall over small steep slope regions and has rapid runoff and debris flow, a flood rises quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. The aim of this study is to quantify the severity of flash food by estimation of a flash flood index(FFI) from probability rainfall data in a study basin. FFI-D-F(FFI-Duration-Frequency) curves that present the relative severity of flash flood are developed for a study basin to provide regional basic information for the local flood forecasting and warning system particularly in ungauged catchments. It is also expected that FFI-D-F curves can be utilized for evaluation on flash flood mitigation ability and residual flood risk of both existing and planned flood control facilities.

Proposal of Acceleration Time History Prediction Method Based on Seismic Observation Data (관측 자료를 활용한 지진가속도 시간이력 추정방법 제안)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Seok;Ahn, Jin-Hee;Park, Jae-Bong;Choi, Hyoung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, seismic ground motion generation method based on the observbation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration is proposed to predict the acceleration time history at an arbitrary location after earthquake. The proposed method assumes that the magnitude of the seismic accelrations obtained from the near stations decreases linearly with the distance from the epicenter to the corresponding station and the accelerations measured at the adjacent stations are assumed to have similar maximum acceleration and time shape functions. These two assumptions allow for the prediction of seismic acceleartion motion without geotechnical information where no seismic accelerometer is installed. This study verified the applicability of the prediction method using seismic observation data from Gyeongju Earthquake (2016), Pohang Earthquake (2017) and Sangju Earthuqkae (2019). The comparison results show that the proposed method is effective for predicting the seismic acceleration response spectrum and time history at arbitary locations.

A Multiple Regression Model for the Estimation of Monthly Runoff from Ungaged Watersheds (미계측 중소유역의 월유출량 산정을 위한 다중회귀모형 연구)

  • 윤용남;원석연
    • Water for future
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 1991
  • Methods of predicting water resources availiability of a river basin can be classified as empirical formula, water budget analysis and regression analysis. The purpose of this study is to develop a method to estimate the monthly runoff required for long-term water resources development project. Using the monthly runoff data series at gaging stations alternative multiple regression models were constructed and evaluated. Monthly runoff volume along with the meteorological and physiographic parameters of 48 gaging stations are used, those of 43 stations to construct the model and the remaining 5 stations to verify the model. Regression models are named to be Model-1, Model-2, Model-3 and Model-4 developing on the way of data processing for the multiple regressions. From the verification, Model-2 is found to be the best-fit model. A comparison of the selected regression model with the Kajiyama's formula is made based on the predicted monthly and annual runoff of the 5 watersheds. The result showed that the present model is fairly resonable and convinient to apply in practice.

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