• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.427-430
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• 2013

Recently, climate change scenarios were substituted by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). Using the RCP scenario, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) produced new climate change scenarios. Further, the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) of Korea produced new climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula. In this study, emergence time of small brown planthopper (SBPH), Laodelphax striatellus and the number of generations a year were estimated during climatic normal year (1981-2010) with previous studies and they were predicted during 2050s (2045-2054) and 2090s (2085-2094) by means of RCP8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with $176.0{\pm}0.97$ Julian data in the climatic normal year, the emergence time of overwintering SBPH was predicted to be $13.2{\pm}0.18$ days ($162.8{\pm}0.91$ Julian date) earlier in 2050s and $32.1{\pm}0.61$ days ($143.9{\pm}1.08$ Julian date) earlier in 2090s. The SBPH was expected to produce an additional $2.0{\pm}0.02$ generations in 2050s and $5.2{\pm}0.06$ generations in 2090s.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socioeconomic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.275-280
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• 2015

In order to figure out the future drought characteristics of the Jeonju plains, the major crop production area in Korea, daily agricultural drought indexes based on soil water balance were calculated for the relevant 12.5 km by 12.5 km grid cell using the weather data generated by the RCP8.5 climate scenario during 1951-2100. The calculations were grouped into five climatological normal years, the past (1951-1980), the present (1981-2010), and the three futures (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the soil moisture conditions in early spring, worst for both the past and present normal years, will ameliorate gradually in the future and the crop water stress in spring season was projected to become negligible by the end of this century. Furthermore, the drought frequency in early spring was projected to diminish, resulting in rare occurrence of spring drought by that time. However, the result also showed that the soil moisture conditions during the summer season (when most crops grow in Jeonju plain) will deteriorate and the drought incidence will be more frequent than in the past or present period.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.189-193
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• 2008

본 연구는 충주댐 유역을 대상으로 미래의 기후변화, 그에 따른 식생상태, 그리고 미래의 토지이용 변화를 고려한 상태에서 SWAT-K 모형에 의한 수문순환인자들의 변화가 댐의 유입량에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자 한다. SWAT 모형의 검보정은 6년간($2000{\sim}2006$, 2001년 제외)의 댐유입량 자료를 이용하여 실시하였으며, Nash_Sutcliffe 모형효율은 $0.52{\sim}0.88$의 범위로 검보정되었다. 기후변화 시나리오는 IPCC에서 제공하고 있는 GCM들 중에서 CCCma CGCM2의 A2, B2 시나리오를 이용하였으며, 댐유역의 기후변화를 모의하기 위하여 과거 30년간($1977{\sim}2006$)의 기상자료 통계정보를 기준으로 Change Factor Downscaling 기법을 적용하여 2030년, 2060년, 2090년 전후의 각 30년간의 미래 정보를 재생산하였다. 미래의 식생정보는 7년($2000{\sim}2006$)간의 MODIS 위성 영상에 의한 엽면적 지수를 월단위로 구축하여 엽면적 지수와 평균기온간의 상관회귀식을 도출하여 미래 기후변화에 따른 식생의 활력도를 예측하였다. 미래의 토지이용 변화는 CA-MArkov 기법을 개선, 적용하여 총 9개의 토지이용 항목에 대하여 각 항목별 예측을 실시하였다. 2000년의 기상자료 및 댐유입량을 기준으로 이상의 미래기후, 식생, 토지이용 에측 정보를 적용하여 미래의 댐유입량을 모의한 결과를 분석하였다. 그 결과 강수량 및 온도의 변동이 가장 크게 영향을 주어 유입량의 변화가 모의되었으며, 이에 따른 수문인자의 변동은 2000년 기준으로 증발산량, 토양수분의 변동을 분석하였다. 미래의 수문순환에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 수문인자는 토양수분으로 나타나, 미래에는 산림지역 및 토지이용 개발에 따른 토양수분의 함양량 유지를 위한 유역관리가 중요한 요인이 될 것으로 나타났다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.103-113
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• 2018

In this study, Construction work is mainly done outdoors, so earth works, reinforced concrete works, etc. are Non-Working Days to rainfall. In particular, changes in rainfall due to global warming have made air calculation more difficult. Therefore, when establishing the process plan, the change of the rainfall in the area should be identified and Non-Working Days should be calculated. In this study, the time of rainfall change point was identified using the meteorological 'observation' data from 1960 to 2016 in Incheon and RCP 4.5, 'weather forecast' data from 2018 to 2074, Year rainfall and seasonal rainfall. The results showed that rainfall changed point in 1972, 1988, 2013, 2038, 2050 and 2069. In particular, it has been found that non-working days due to rainfall has big changed point as of 2013, 2038 and 2069.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.219-219
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• 2016

기후변화에 따른 청미천 유역의 가뭄 특성을 평가한 연구로 가뭄의 발생은 여러 요소가 연속적인 상관관계를 이루고 있으며, 가뭄지수 산정에 내재되어 있는 복잡성 및 불확실성으로 인해 다양한 가뭄지수를 적용하였다. 그 중 기상학적 가뭄지수는 강수량을 이용하여 산정하는 SPI(Standardiz d Precipitation Index)와 강수량과 증발산량을 바탕으로 산정하는 SPEI(Standardiz d Precipitation Evaportranspiration Index), 유효토양수분량을 바탕으로 산정하는 농업학적 가뭄지수인 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index), 유출량을 이용하여 산정하는 수문학적 가뭄지수인 SDI(Streamflow Drought Index)의 지속기간 3개월, 6개월, 9개월에 따른 과거(1985년부터 2015년) 및 미래(2016년부터 2099년)의 가뭄특성을 파악하였다. 미래의 경우 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5와 8.5를 이용하였으며, 농업학적 및 수문학적 가뭄지수는 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형 모의를 통해 산출된 결과를 토대로 산정하였다. 과거 기간의 가뭄지수 산정 결과, 2015년과 2014년이 극한 및 평균 가뭄의 평균에서 가장 극심한 가뭄을 나타냈으며, PDSI를 제외한 각 가뭄지수 간에는 높은 상관정도를 보였다. 과거를 포함한 미래 가뭄의 경우 현재(2011년부터 2020년까지), 가까운 미래(2021년부터 2040년까지), 중간 미래(2041년부터 2070년까지), 먼 미래(2071년부터 2099년까지)로 나누어 가뭄을 평가하였다. 평가 결과 현재의 경우 과거 기간의 가뭄과는 달리 2018년이 가뭄에 취약했으며, 극한 및 평균 가뭄의 평균에서 두 기후변화 시나리오는 가까운 미래와 중간미래가 취약함을 나타냈다. 상관계수의 경우 과거 결과와 마찬가지로 PDSI를 제외한 각 가뭄지수 간에 높은 상관정도를 나타냈다. 또한 빈도해석 결과 RCP 4.5에서 더 큰 변동성을 보였다. 현저히 적은 강수 및 기온 상승으로 인한 증발산량의 증가 등으로 인해 최근 들어 가뭄의 정도가 심해졌으며, 미래에는 더욱 더 심해질 전망으로 보여진다. 이를 평가하기 위해서는 본 결과에서 보듯이 각 각의 가뭄지수는 극한 가뭄의 발생 시기 및 강도에서 각기 다른 차이를 확인할 수 있기 때문에 가뭄 평가 시 다양한 형태의 가뭄지수 활용이 이루어져야 할 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.59-59
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• 2020

온실가스 증가로 전구평균기온은 지속적으로 상승하고 있으며, 이러한 지구시스템 변화는 수자원의 시·공간적인 변동을 증대시킬 것으로 전망된다. 보다 적극적인 기후변화 대응을 위해 2015년 파리협정이 채택됨에 따라 전 세계에서는 온실가스 감축을 실천하고 있으며, 선진국에서는 산업화 이전 대비 1.5℃ 및 2.0℃ 전구기온상승에 따른 분야별 영향평가 및 적응방안을 마련하고 있다. 그러나 국내의 경우 아직까지 전구기온 상승에 따른 수자원 영향평가가 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 AR5 기후변화 시나리오를 기반으로 1.5℃ 및 2.0℃ 전구기온 상승으로 인한 국내 수자원 변화 특성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 몬순특성을 고려하여 적정 5 GCMs을 선정하였으며, 시간샘플링 기법을 활용하여 1.5℃ 및 2.0℃ 전구기온 상승시기를 추정하였다. 통계적상세화 기법을 적용하여 상세 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하고, 수문모형(VIC)에 적용하여 미래 수문변화를 전망하였다. 과거 대비 1.5℃, 2.0℃ 전구기온 상승에 따른 수문기상인자의 변화를 분석한 결과 연평균 강수량 및 유출량은 전구기온상승에 따라 증가하며, 계절별 변동성은 심화될 것으로 전망되었다. 유출량의 변화는 강수량 변화경향과 대체로 일치하였으나, 강수량 대비 전망결과의 불확실성이 크게 나타났다. 한편, 수문순환은 전 지역에서 가속화되는 것으로 확인되었으며, 모든 GCM의 전망결과에서 동일한 경향을 보였다. 수문기상인자(강수량, 증발산량, 유출량)의 강도별 발생빈도 및 총량은 저강도 구간에서 감소, 고강도 구간에서 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 특성은 강수량 및 유출량의 극대값 증가에 기여하여 수자원 관리의 어려움을 가중시킬 것으로 예상된다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.121-134
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• 2019

This study was conducted to review the trends of forest meteorological studies based on the publications for last 20 years in Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (KJAFM), and to provide insight for future prospect for researches in the field of forest meteorology. A total of 220 papers related to forest meteorology were published in KJAFM for the last 20 years. That corresponds to 33.5% out of all the papers including agricultural meteorology papers. To review the trends of forest meteorology studies, the 220 published papers were classified into seven categories. They are forest meteorology and forest fire, forest meteorology and tree physiology, forest meteorology and forest protection, micrometeorology in mountain area, climate and forest growth, climate and forest vegetation distribution, and climate change and forest ecosystem. Even if there were differences in paper numbers among the seven categories, it was found that various and very specific studies were conducted in the field of forest meteorology for the last 20 years. It was also expected that the accumulation and utilization of various and accurate forest meteorological information would bring remarkable progress of forest meteorological studies in the near future.