• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.603-620
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• 2015

The National Pension of Korea is a public social security system designed to alleviate social risks and poverty that has had a major impact on the quality of life for the aging population. However, a rapidly aging population and low fertility threaten the sustainability of national pension in Korea. The National Pension Research Institute publishes a nancial projection every ve years; consequently, the government has lowered the entitlements for the sustainability of national pension based on the projection results. The current reform of the pension system that arbitrarily reduces the entitlements might detract from the income security role of the national pension for pensioners without accounting for the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD countries. We first discuss methods for the financial projection of the national pension in terms of population, subscribers, and pensioner projections in order to estimate the pension reserve fund and the financial depletion year. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis for population variables, institutional variables, and economic variables based on pension reserves and the financial depletion year. We evaluate intergenerational fairness between the income hierarchy by conducting a money's worth analysis. Finally, we investigate the possibility of the sustainability of national pension by adjusting pension contributions and entitlements (income replacement rate). A new dependency ratio shows that a simple reform of the national pension does not secure the sustainability of the national pension without adapting a pay-as-you-go system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.131-153
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• 2014

The Korean market of pension plans has recently increased and pension plans will be expected to play an important role in the retirement system as complement of the national pension system in the future. However, there are a few of research papers on actuarial projections of pension plans. This paper will discuss a long-term financial projection on defined pension plans using data based on the national pension workplace participants. Previous researches focused on company-based financial projection of pension plan. But, this paper concerns on total Korean pension participants and suggests a method to calculate future financial projection of total pension plans. Finally, this research will suggest several numerical results of normal costs, benefits, numbers of workers, etc.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.139-166
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• 1988

본고(本稿)는 공적연금제도(公的年金制度)의 재정운용방식(財政運用方式)에 대해 고찰하고, 현행 국민연금제도(國民年金制度)의 재정추계(財政推計)를 위한 모형(模型)과 추계방법(推計方法)을 제시하고, 1988년부터 1992년까지의 추계결과(推計結果)를 분석하였다. 또한 현행제도의 문제점을 지적하고, 제도의 수정(修正)에 입각 할 때의 재정추계효과(財政推計效果)를 분석하였다. 연금재정운용방식(年金財政運用方式)으로서의 적립방식(積立方式)과 부과방식(賦課方式) 중 어떤 상황하(狀況下)에서 어느 방식(方式)이 유리(有利)한지에 대한 분석(分析)에서, 연금급여수준(年金給與水準)이 동일(同一)하다는 전제하에서 이자율(利子率)이 인구성장률(人口成長率)과 소득증대율(所得增大率)의 합(合)보다 큰 경우 적립방식(積立方式)이 유리하고, 그 반대의 경우 부과방식(賦課方式)이 유리하다는 것을 도출하였다. 추계결과(推計結果) 적립기금규모(積立基金規模)는 1988년말 약 5,800억(億)원에서 1992년말 4조(兆) 6,750억(億)원으로 연평균(年平均) 68.5%의 증가율을 나타낼 전망이며, 이식률수준(利殖率水準)에 따른 민감도분석(敏感度分析)에서 기금운용(基金運用)의 중요성을 보았다. 현행제도의 개선(改善)을 위해 갹출료산정기초(醵出料算定基礎)로서의 보수재산정(報酬再算定)과 연금급여산식(年金給與算式)의 재산정(再算定)을 제안하고, 이러한 수정(修正)에 의한 추계결과(推計結果), 갹출료수입(醵出料收入)의 증가(增加), 반환일시금(返還一時金)의 증가(增加), 급여지출(給與支出)의 증가(增加)로 나타났으며, 이에 따른 적립기금규모(積立基金規模)는 1988년 5,800억(億)원에서 7,240억(億)원으로, 1992년 4조(兆) 6,750억(億)원에서 5조(兆) 4,500억(億)원으로 개선되는 효과를 보았다.

• Journal of Teachers' Pension
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• v.1
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• pp.47-90
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• 2016

사학연금재정재계산위원회(2016)에 의하면 사학연금제도는 2027년에 기금규모가 최고로 도달한 후, 다음 해 부터는 재정수지가 적자로 전환되어 2046년에 기금이 완전히 고갈될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 그래서 동 제도의 지속가능성을 위한 연금재정의 안정화 대책이 시급하다. 현재 상황에서 사학연금제도의 지속가능성에 대한 연구는 자산운용을 효율화하여 기금고갈시점을 최대한 연기하고, 동 기간 공무원연금제도의 개혁과 연계한 지속가능성을 모색하는 방안이 최선의 방안이다. 지금까지 사학연금은 해외투자나 대체투자 등 다양한 자산배분 포토폴리오를 설계 운용하여 왔는데, 대체투자로는 높은 수익률을 실현하여 왔으나 해외투자 수익률은 기대에 미치지 못하였다. 국내외 연기금들 중 지난 6년간 가장 높은 단순 수익률을 실현한 CPPIB의 수익률을 사학연금재정재계산위원회가 사용한 연금재정재계산 수익률에 적용하여 추계한 연금재정은 2044년 기금최고시점에 이르렀고, 2045년부터 재정수지가 음(-)으로 변하여 2060년부터 기금이 완전히 고갈될 것으로 전망되었다. 그리고 사학연금의 운용성과가 미흡한 주식투자 수익률을 국민연금 주식투자 수익률로 적용하였을 경우, 사학연금재정재계산위원회 추계 결과와 비슷한 기금최고시점 및 기금고갈시점을 보였다. 글로벌 경제가 저성장 저금리 기조로 들어서고 있는 이 시점에서, CPPIB가 지난 6년간 실현한 높은 수익률을 중장기에 지속적으로 기대하기는 어렵다. 그래서 사학연금기금을 최대한 유지하기 위해서는 다양한 투자대상을 개발함과 동시에 CPPIB의 자산배분 포토폴리오와 포토폴리오 변동성 및 기대수익률을 통제할 수 있는 수리모형을 도입하고, 국민연금의 주식투자 운용원칙 및 기준을 벤치마킹하여 자산배분을 효율화하여야 한다. 이와 동시에 향후 공무원연금제도 개혁 과정에서 사학연금제도의 지속가능성을 반영할 수 있는 방안에 대한 연구가 필요하다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.643-661
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• 2015

Korea Teachers Pension (private school pension) is a mandatory pension and a social security system for private school teachers to ensure the stability of subscribers by a supplying pension when they (and their dependents) face future economic risk due to retirement or death. Therefore, the Teachers Pension must provide stability and sustainability in regards to adequacy of income and to function as a pension. However, the Government Employees Pension System (GEPS) of Korea (the most representative special occupation pension) recorded a fiscal deficit in 2001 and with an accumulated deficit that is expected to grow; subsequently, various plans for the reform of GEPS have been actively discussed. The Korea Teachers Pension system is based on the GEPS scheme and is not free from the GEPS discussions on reforms of national pension. The current system for the Teachers Pension needs to be improved because it is expected to be depleted within the next 30 years due to low fertility and an aging population in Korea. This study discusses existing Teachers Pension schemes problems and suggests a projection method and revised plans to improve it. We use long-term financial projections of the Teachers Pension to estimate the fund exhaustion point and the minus balance of the financial scale as well as analyze the supply-demand burden structure that reflects the future population structure to propose Teachers Pension reforms that will improve stability and adequacy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.721-739
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• 2015

The importance of the old age income security will increase for an aging society due to the deepening income polarization. The National Pension(NP) is a representative Social Security scheme in charge of old age income security as well as income redistribution for the insured. Studies by Kim (2002), Kim et al. (2003), and Hong (2013) have reported the possibility of unsatisfactory income redistribution of the NP. Recently Choi (2015) attributed those results to an unnoticed defect in the benefit formula. This study is a test for the unsatisfactory income redistribution of the current National Pension using early participants who have now become pensioners. The method aggregates cohorts and combines individual history data before the year 2013 and the results of the actuarial projection model of the 2013 after the year 2014. The results are divided by measures taken. The redistribution is obviously progressive by the income replacement rate; however, it is significantly regressive when measured by the net benefit theoretically as more plausible. Considering the effect of differing lifetime contribution year among income classes, the regressive redistribution will prevail more in the future pensioners.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.201-206
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• 2018

The fourth fiscal estimate of the national pension following the aging of the population and falling yields estimated that the fund ran out in 2057, three years earlier than the third fiscal calculation. Accordingly, the government proposed a plan to immediately raise the insurance premium rate by 2 percent and maintain the income replacement rate by 45 percent, and to reduce the income replacement rate by 40 percent in 2028. In this form, increasing premiums and reducing income replacement rates will allow younger generations to sign up differently from existing subscribers, who previously had higher income replacement rates at lower rates. Therefore, the study aims to ease the burden on the elderly and younger by applying different insurance rates and income replacement rates for different ages.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.593-601
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• 2015

We summarize the twelve papers carefully selected for aging, pensions, and related issues, The twelve novel papers are grouped into three categories: sustainability, adequacy, pension reforms. In particular, these twelve papers include depth and extensive discussions for national pension system and present the direction of the various pension reforms. It will be a great help to policy makers and researchers.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.115-134
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• 1991

The role of pension plans in the macroeconomy has been a subject of much interest for some years. It has come to be recognized that pension plans may alter basic macroeconomic behavior patterns. The net effects on both savings and labor supply are thus matters for speculation. The aim of the present paper is to provide quantitative results which may be helpful in attaching orders of magnitude to some of the possible effects. We are not concerned with the providing empirical evidence relating to actual behavior, but rather with deriving the macroeconomic implications for a alternative possibilities. The pension plan interacts with the economy and the population in a number of ways. Demographic variables may thus affect both the economic burden of a national pension plan and the ability of the economy to sustain the burden. The tax transfer process associated with the pension plan may have implications for national patterns of saving and consumption. The existence of a pension plan may have implications also for the size of the labor force, inasmuch as labor force participation rates may be affected. Changes in technology and the associated changes in average productivity levels bear directly on the size of the national income, and hence on the pension contribution base. The vehicle for the analysis is a hypothetical but broadly realistic simulation model of an economic- demographic system into which is inserted a national pension plan. All income, expenditure, and related aggregates are in real terms. The economy is basically neoclassical; full employment is assumed, output is generated by a Cobb-Douglas production process, and factors receive their marginal products. The model was designed for use in computer simulation experiments. The simulation results suggest a number of general conclusions. These may be summarized as follows; - The introduction of a national pension plan (funded system) tends to increase the rate of economic growth until cost exceeds revenue. - A scheme with full wage indexing is more expensive than one in which pensions are merely price indexed. - The rate of technical progress is not a critical element in determining the economic burden of the pension scheme. - Raising the rate of benefits affects its economic burden, and raising the age of eligibility may decrease the burden substantially. - The level of fertility is an element in determining the long-run burden. A sustained low fertility rate increases the proportion of the aged in total population and increases the burden of the pension plan. High fertility has inverse effects.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.509-523
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• 2024

This study estimates connectedness index among the US, China, Europe, Japan, and South Korea using monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) data from January 2000 to December 2023. The connectedness index allows us to analyze the effect of global economic uncertainty on domestic economic uncertainty. The EPU is used as a proxy for economic uncertainty. Inter-country connectedness index is computed from variance decomposition. The findings from forecast error variance decomposition show that three-fourths of total uncertainty comes from economic uncertainty in the own country and one-fourth of total uncertainty comes from economic uncertainty in the others. The analysis on net pairwise connectedness reveals that, even though the extent of the effect of economic uncertainty in one country from economic uncertainty in another country varies over time, economic uncertainty in South Korea, a small-open economy, is mainly affected by economic uncertainty in the others. The reverse situation rarely happens except in the specific occurrence such as the collapse of the credit bubble in 2003 and the subsequent years, the inter-Korean summit and North Korea-the US summit in 2018, and the period from the first outbreak of COVID-19 on the implementation of the government's severe regulation against COVID-19.