The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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National Pension Income Redistribution: The Case of Early Insureds by Net Benefit Measure

생애 순혜택으로 측정한 국민연금 초기 수급자들의 소득재분배

  • Received : 2015.07.15
  • Accepted : 2015.08.13
  • Published : 2015.08.31
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Abstract

The importance of the old age income security will increase for an aging society due to the deepening income polarization. The National Pension(NP) is a representative Social Security scheme in charge of old age income security as well as income redistribution for the insured. Studies by Kim (2002), Kim et al. (2003), and Hong (2013) have reported the possibility of unsatisfactory income redistribution of the NP. Recently Choi (2015) attributed those results to an unnoticed defect in the benefit formula. This study is a test for the unsatisfactory income redistribution of the current National Pension using early participants who have now become pensioners. The method aggregates cohorts and combines individual history data before the year 2013 and the results of the actuarial projection model of the 2013 after the year 2014. The results are divided by measures taken. The redistribution is obviously progressive by the income replacement rate; however, it is significantly regressive when measured by the net benefit theoretically as more plausible. Considering the effect of differing lifetime contribution year among income classes, the regressive redistribution will prevail more in the future pensioners.

향후 고령사회에서 노후소득보장의 중요성은 소득양극화로 더 확대될 것으로 예상된다. 우리나라의 대표적 사회보장 제도인 국민연금은 대다수 국민들의 노후 소득보장과 함께 소득재분배를 담당하고 있다. Kim (2002), Kim 등 (2003), 그리고 Hong (2013) 등이 국민연금의 소득재분배 기능이 미흡할 수 있음을 보였지만 최근 Choi (2015)은 그 원인이 국민연금 기본연금액 산식의 구조적 취약점에 기인한다는 의견을 제기하였다. 본고는 현재 국민연금의 약 300만 노령연금수급자를 중심으로 개인별 이력자료와 2013 재정계산의 장기재정추계에서 관련 세대의 2014년 이후 수급에 대한 분석으로 국민연금 초기 수급자들의 생애순혜택에 의한 소득재분배 측정 결과를 제시하고 있다. 수급자 이력자료에 나타난 소득대체율로 측정한 소득재분배는 누진적이지만 그것은 초기 가입자들의 특성상 소득분위별 가입기간의 차이가 적기 때문인 것으로 설명된다. 남은 생애기간에 대한 급여를 장기재정추계 모형으로 보완하여 측정한 생애 순혜택은 크게 역진적으로 나타난다. 소득계층별 가입기간의 차이가 더 큰 이후 세대들에서는 그 역진성이 더 확대될 것으로 예상되어 국민연금의 소득재분배에 대한 재검토가 요청된다.

Keywords

References

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