• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.1137-1147
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• 2022

River and groundwater stages are the main elements in the hydrologic cycle. They are spatially correlated and can be used to evaluate hydrological and agricultural drought. Stochastic simulation is often performed independently on hydrological variables that are spatiotemporally correlated. In this setting, interdependency across mutual variables may not be maintained. This study proposes the Bayesian vector autoregression model (VAR) to capture the interdependency between multiple variables over time. VAR models systematically consider the lagged stages of each variable and the lagged values of the other variables. Further, an autoregressive model (AR) was built and compared with the VAR model. It was confirmed that the VAR model was more effective in reproducing observed interdependency (or cross-correlation) between river and ground stages, while the AR generally underestimated that of the observed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.spc1
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• pp.1167-1181
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• 2021

In relation to the algae bloom, four types of blue-green algae that emit toxic substances are designated and managed as harmful Cyanobacteria, and prediction information using a physical model is being also published. However, as algae are living organisms, it is difficult to predict according to physical dynamics, and not easy to consider the effects of numerous factors such as weather, hydraulic, hydrology, and water quality. Therefore, a lot of researches on algal bloom prediction using machine learning have been recently conducted. In this study, the characteristic importance of water quality factors affecting the occurrence of Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) were analyzed using the random forest (RF) model for Bohyeonsan Dam and Yeongcheon Dam located in Yeongcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do and also predicted the occurrence of harmful blue-green algae using the machine learning and deep learning models and evaluated their accuracy. The water temperature and total nitrogen (T-N) were found to be high in common, and the occurrence prediction of CyanoHABs using artificial neural network (ANN) also predicted the actual values closely, confirming that it can be used for the reservoirs that require the prediction of harmful cyanobacteria for algal management in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.509-520
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• 2023

Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.10
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• pp.619-629
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• 2023

Recent intensification of climate change has led to an increase in damages caused by droughts. Currently, in Korea, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as a criterion to classify the intensity of droughts. Based on the accumulated precipitation over the past six months (SPI-6), meteorological drought intensities are classified into four categories: concern, caution, alert, and severe. However, there is a limitation in classifying drought intensity solely based on precipitation. To overcome the limitations of the meteorological drought warning criteria based on SPI, this study collected emergency water supply damage data from the National Drought Information Portal (NDIP) to classify drought intensity. Factors of SPI, such as precipitation, and factors used to calculate evapotranspiration, such as temperature and humidity, were indexed using min-max normalization. Coefficients for each factor were determined based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The drought intensity based on emergency water supply was used as the dependent variable, and the coefficients of each meteorological factor determined by GA were used as coefficients to derive a new Drought Severity Classification Index (DSCI). After deriving the DSCI, cumulative distribution functions were used to present intensity stage classification boundaries. It is anticipated that using the proposed DSCI in this study will allow for more accurate drought intensity classification than the traditional SPI, supporting decision-making for disaster management personnel.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.195-207
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• 2024

This study selected major drought events that occurred in the Jeonnam region from 1991 to 2023, examining both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence mechanisms. The daily drought index was calculated using rainfall and dam storage as input data, and the drought propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were analyzed. The characteristics of the 2022-23 drought, which recently occurred in the Jeonnam region and caused serious damage, were evaluated. Compared to historical droughts, the duration of the hydrological drought for 2022-2023 lasted 334 days, the second longest after 2017-2018, the drought severity was evaluated as the most severe at -1.76. As a result of a linked analysis of SPI (StandQardized Precipitation Index), and SRSI (Standardized Reservoir Storage Index), it is possible to suggest a proactive utilization for SPI(6) to respond to hydrological drought. Furthermore, by confirming the similarity between SRSI and SPI(12) in long-term drought monitoring, the applicability of SPI(12) to hydrological drought monitoring in ungauged basins was also confirmed. Through this study, it was confirmed that the long-term dryness that occurs during the summer rainy season can transition into a serious level of hydrological drought. Therefore, for preemptive drought response, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring results of various drought indices and understand the propagation phenomenon from meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought to secure a sufficient drought response period.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.291-302
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• 2024

Sustained meteorological drought can lead to hydrological drought, known as drought propagation. The propagated droughts cause more damage to the region than the non-propagated droughts. Recent studies on drought propagation have focused on identifying the lag time using correlation analysis. There is a lack of studies comparing damage patterns between propagated and non-propagated droughts. In this study, the overlap and pooling propagation between meteorological and hydrological droughts were analyzed using drought indices in Chungcheong Province to identify drought propagation, and the propagation characteristics such as pooling, attenuation, lag and extension were analyzed. The results showed that although Chungju-si experienced a meteorological drought in 2010, no damage was caused by the drought. However, a meteorological drought in 2017 and 2018 propagated into a hydrological drought of longer duration but less severity, resulting in drought-affected damage. Similarly, Cheongyang-gun experienced a meteorological drought in 2017, but no damage was reported from the drought. However, in the neighboring county of Buyeo-gun, a meteorological drought with a similar magnitude propagated to a hydrological drought during the same period, resulting in drought-affected damage. The overall results indicated that the damage from propagated drought events was more severe than the non-propagated drought events, and these results can be used as basic data for establishing drought response policies suitable for the region.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.10
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• pp.103-125
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• 2005

Hazard are defined here as threat to life, well-being, material goods and environmental from the extremes of natural processes or technology. The challenges of natural and technology in increasing the exposure of people and property to risk pose a dilemma for any government seeking the fullest protection for its people and their property. As society progresses and as technology improves and becomes ever more intricate and far reaching, the human species is confronted with increasingly diverse and numerous catastrophic events. Not so infrequently, unfortunately, the impact of either a man-made or natural disaster is compounded by the fact that policy makers have neither prepared themselves or the public to respond appropriately to a disaster once the tragedy has struck. Many concerns have been raised for importance of emergency management after 1990's numerous urban disasters in Korea. Emergency management is the discipline and profession of applying science, technology, planning, and management to deal with extreme events that can injure or kill large numbers of people, cause extensive damage to property, and disrupt community life. When the primary function of private security is to protect lives and property of clients, emergency management should be included in the security service and many countermeasures should be carried out for that purpose. The purpose of this study is to establish ways and means needed to improve the private security emergency management system in Korea. This study is spilt into four chapters. Chapter I is the introduction part. Chapter II introduces the reader to a private security and emergency management theory, and Chapter III deals with the establishment of an effective emergency management system in Korea private security, Chapter IV is a conclusion. Policy makers and private security industry employers in Korea has not concerned with the importance of training and education by lack of recognition and has been passive about qualified guards. And the authorities supervising and the administrating the guards has not recognized the importance of private security and has neglected the training of the guards. In theses contexts, private security should develop and maintain a educational program of emergency management to meet their responsibilities to provide the protection and safety of the clients. Today's modern corporate security director, is, first of all, a competent, well-rounded business executive and, second, a 'service expert'. And, emergency management personnel in private security industry need continuous training.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2016

Urbanization in Korea has increased significantly and subsequently, various facilities have been concentrated in urban areas at high speed in accordance with a growing urban population. Accordingly, damages have occurred due to a variety of disasters. In particular, fire damage among the social disasters caused the most severe damage in urban areas along with traffic accidents. 44,432 cases of fire occurred in 2015 in Korea. Due to these accidents, 253 were killed and property damage of 4,50 billion won was generated. However, despite the efforts to reduce a variety of damage, fire danger still remains high. In this regard, this study collected fire data, generated from 2007 to 2014 through the Jinju Fire Department and the National Fire Data System(NFDS) and calculated fire risk by analyzing the clustering of fire cases and facilities in Jinju-si based on the current DB of facilities, offered by the Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs. As a result, the risk ratings of fire occurrence were classified as four stages under the standards of the US Society of Fire Protection Engineers(SEPE). Business facilities, entertainment facilities, and automobile facilities were classified as the highest A grade, detached houses, Apartment houses, education facilities, sales facilities, accommodation, set of facilities, medical facilities, industrial facilities, and life service facilities were classified as U grade, and other facilities were classified as EU grade. Finally, hazardous production facilities were classified as BEU grade, the lowest grade. In addition, in the case of setting the standard with loss of life, the highest risk facility was the hazardous production facilities, while in the case of setting the standard with property damage, a set of facilities and industrial facilities showed the highest risk. In this regard, this study is expected to be effectively utilized to establish the fire reduction measures against facilities, distributed in urban space by calculating risk grades regarding the generation frequency, casualties, and property damage, through the classification of fire, occurred in the city, according to the facilities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.75-89
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• 2023

As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.322-331
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• 2016

Oil budget calculator identifies the removal pathways of spilled oil by both natural and response methods, and estimates the remaining oil required response activities. A oil budget calculator was newly developed as a response tool for Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident in Gulf of Mexico in 2010 to inform clean up decisions for Incident Comment System, which was also successfully utilized to media and general public promotion of oil spill response activities. This study analyzed the theoretical background of the oil budget calculator and explored its future application to Korea. The oil budge calculation of four catastrophic marine pollution incidents indicates that 3~8% of spilled oil was removed mechanically by skimmers, 1~5% by in-situ burning, 4.8~16% by chemical dispersion due to dispersant operation, and 37~56% by weathering processes such as evaporation, dissolution, and natural dispersion. The results show that in-situ burning and chemical dispersion effectively remove spilled oil more than the mechanical removal by skimming, and natural weathering processes are also very effective to remove spilled oil. To apply the oil budget calculator in Korea, its parameters need to be optimized in response to the seasonal characteristics of marine environment, the characteristics of spilled oil and response technologies. A new algorithm also needs to be developed to estimate the oil budget due to shoreline cleanup activities. An oil budget calculator optimized in Korea can play a critical role in informing decisions for oil spill response activities and communicating spill prevention and response activities with the media and general public.