• Title/Summary/Keyword: 국가재난

Search Result 654, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Prediction of cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms in reservoir using machine learning and deep learning (머신러닝과 딥러닝을 이용한 저수지 유해 남조류 발생 예측)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Park, Jun Hyung;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.spc1
    • /
    • pp.1167-1181
    • /
    • 2021
  • In relation to the algae bloom, four types of blue-green algae that emit toxic substances are designated and managed as harmful Cyanobacteria, and prediction information using a physical model is being also published. However, as algae are living organisms, it is difficult to predict according to physical dynamics, and not easy to consider the effects of numerous factors such as weather, hydraulic, hydrology, and water quality. Therefore, a lot of researches on algal bloom prediction using machine learning have been recently conducted. In this study, the characteristic importance of water quality factors affecting the occurrence of Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) were analyzed using the random forest (RF) model for Bohyeonsan Dam and Yeongcheon Dam located in Yeongcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do and also predicted the occurrence of harmful blue-green algae using the machine learning and deep learning models and evaluated their accuracy. The water temperature and total nitrogen (T-N) were found to be high in common, and the occurrence prediction of CyanoHABs using artificial neural network (ANN) also predicted the actual values closely, confirming that it can be used for the reservoirs that require the prediction of harmful cyanobacteria for algal management in the future.

Evaluating the contribution of calculation components to the uncertainty of standardized precipitation index using a linear mixed model (선형혼합모형을 활용한 표준강수지수 계산 인자들의 불확실성에 대한 기여도 평가)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Lee, Baesung;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.56 no.8
    • /
    • pp.509-520
    • /
    • 2023
  • Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

Establishing meteorological drought severity considering the level of emergency water supply (비상급수의 규모를 고려한 기상학적 가뭄 강도 수립)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Wang, Wonjoon;Kim, Donghyun;Han, Heechan;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.56 no.10
    • /
    • pp.619-629
    • /
    • 2023
  • Recent intensification of climate change has led to an increase in damages caused by droughts. Currently, in Korea, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as a criterion to classify the intensity of droughts. Based on the accumulated precipitation over the past six months (SPI-6), meteorological drought intensities are classified into four categories: concern, caution, alert, and severe. However, there is a limitation in classifying drought intensity solely based on precipitation. To overcome the limitations of the meteorological drought warning criteria based on SPI, this study collected emergency water supply damage data from the National Drought Information Portal (NDIP) to classify drought intensity. Factors of SPI, such as precipitation, and factors used to calculate evapotranspiration, such as temperature and humidity, were indexed using min-max normalization. Coefficients for each factor were determined based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The drought intensity based on emergency water supply was used as the dependent variable, and the coefficients of each meteorological factor determined by GA were used as coefficients to derive a new Drought Severity Classification Index (DSCI). After deriving the DSCI, cumulative distribution functions were used to present intensity stage classification boundaries. It is anticipated that using the proposed DSCI in this study will allow for more accurate drought intensity classification than the traditional SPI, supporting decision-making for disaster management personnel.

Combined analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought for hydrological drought prediction and early response - Focussing on the 2022-23 drought in the Jeollanam-do - (수문학적 가뭄 예측과 조기대응을 위한 기상-수문학적 가뭄의 연계분석 - 2022~23 전남지역 가뭄을 대상으로)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Hong, Seok-Jae;Kim, Young-Jun;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.3
    • /
    • pp.195-207
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study selected major drought events that occurred in the Jeonnam region from 1991 to 2023, examining both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence mechanisms. The daily drought index was calculated using rainfall and dam storage as input data, and the drought propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were analyzed. The characteristics of the 2022-23 drought, which recently occurred in the Jeonnam region and caused serious damage, were evaluated. Compared to historical droughts, the duration of the hydrological drought for 2022-2023 lasted 334 days, the second longest after 2017-2018, the drought severity was evaluated as the most severe at -1.76. As a result of a linked analysis of SPI (StandQardized Precipitation Index), and SRSI (Standardized Reservoir Storage Index), it is possible to suggest a proactive utilization for SPI(6) to respond to hydrological drought. Furthermore, by confirming the similarity between SRSI and SPI(12) in long-term drought monitoring, the applicability of SPI(12) to hydrological drought monitoring in ungauged basins was also confirmed. Through this study, it was confirmed that the long-term dryness that occurs during the summer rainy season can transition into a serious level of hydrological drought. Therefore, for preemptive drought response, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring results of various drought indices and understand the propagation phenomenon from meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought to secure a sufficient drought response period.

The Improvement Measures for the Establishment of Emergency Management System in Private Security (위험사회의 전개에 따른 민간경비 산업의 대응과제 - 위기관리를 중심으로)

  • Park, Dong-Kyun
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.10
    • /
    • pp.103-125
    • /
    • 2005
  • Hazard are defined here as threat to life, well-being, material goods and environmental from the extremes of natural processes or technology. The challenges of natural and technology in increasing the exposure of people and property to risk pose a dilemma for any government seeking the fullest protection for its people and their property. As society progresses and as technology improves and becomes ever more intricate and far reaching, the human species is confronted with increasingly diverse and numerous catastrophic events. Not so infrequently, unfortunately, the impact of either a man-made or natural disaster is compounded by the fact that policy makers have neither prepared themselves or the public to respond appropriately to a disaster once the tragedy has struck. Many concerns have been raised for importance of emergency management after 1990's numerous urban disasters in Korea. Emergency management is the discipline and profession of applying science, technology, planning, and management to deal with extreme events that can injure or kill large numbers of people, cause extensive damage to property, and disrupt community life. When the primary function of private security is to protect lives and property of clients, emergency management should be included in the security service and many countermeasures should be carried out for that purpose. The purpose of this study is to establish ways and means needed to improve the private security emergency management system in Korea. This study is spilt into four chapters. Chapter I is the introduction part. Chapter II introduces the reader to a private security and emergency management theory, and Chapter III deals with the establishment of an effective emergency management system in Korea private security, Chapter IV is a conclusion. Policy makers and private security industry employers in Korea has not concerned with the importance of training and education by lack of recognition and has been passive about qualified guards. And the authorities supervising and the administrating the guards has not recognized the importance of private security and has neglected the training of the guards. In theses contexts, private security should develop and maintain a educational program of emergency management to meet their responsibilities to provide the protection and safety of the clients. Today's modern corporate security director, is, first of all, a competent, well-rounded business executive and, second, a 'service expert'. And, emergency management personnel in private security industry need continuous training.

  • PDF

The Risk Assessment of the Fire Occurrence According to Urban Facilities in Jinju-si (진주시 도시시설물별 화재발생 위험도 평가)

  • Bae, Gyu Han;Won, Tae Hong;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.43-50
    • /
    • 2016
  • Urbanization in Korea has increased significantly and subsequently, various facilities have been concentrated in urban areas at high speed in accordance with a growing urban population. Accordingly, damages have occurred due to a variety of disasters. In particular, fire damage among the social disasters caused the most severe damage in urban areas along with traffic accidents. 44,432 cases of fire occurred in 2015 in Korea. Due to these accidents, 253 were killed and property damage of 4,50 billion won was generated. However, despite the efforts to reduce a variety of damage, fire danger still remains high. In this regard, this study collected fire data, generated from 2007 to 2014 through the Jinju Fire Department and the National Fire Data System(NFDS) and calculated fire risk by analyzing the clustering of fire cases and facilities in Jinju-si based on the current DB of facilities, offered by the Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs. As a result, the risk ratings of fire occurrence were classified as four stages under the standards of the US Society of Fire Protection Engineers(SEPE). Business facilities, entertainment facilities, and automobile facilities were classified as the highest A grade, detached houses, Apartment houses, education facilities, sales facilities, accommodation, set of facilities, medical facilities, industrial facilities, and life service facilities were classified as U grade, and other facilities were classified as EU grade. Finally, hazardous production facilities were classified as BEU grade, the lowest grade. In addition, in the case of setting the standard with loss of life, the highest risk facility was the hazardous production facilities, while in the case of setting the standard with property damage, a set of facilities and industrial facilities showed the highest risk. In this regard, this study is expected to be effectively utilized to establish the fire reduction measures against facilities, distributed in urban space by calculating risk grades regarding the generation frequency, casualties, and property damage, through the classification of fire, occurred in the city, according to the facilities.

Comparison of rainfall-runoff performance based on various gridded precipitation datasets in the Mekong River basin (메콩강 유역의 격자형 강수 자료에 의한 강우-유출 모의 성능 비교·분석)

  • Kim, Younghun;Le, Xuan-Hien;Jung, Sungho;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Gihae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.56 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-89
    • /
    • 2023
  • As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

A review of Deepwater Horizon Oil Budget Calculator for its Application to Korea (딥워터 호라이즌호 유출유 수지분석 모델의 국내 적용성 검토)

  • Kim, Choong-Ki;Oh, Jeong-Hwan;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.322-331
    • /
    • 2016
  • Oil budget calculator identifies the removal pathways of spilled oil by both natural and response methods, and estimates the remaining oil required response activities. A oil budget calculator was newly developed as a response tool for Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident in Gulf of Mexico in 2010 to inform clean up decisions for Incident Comment System, which was also successfully utilized to media and general public promotion of oil spill response activities. This study analyzed the theoretical background of the oil budget calculator and explored its future application to Korea. The oil budge calculation of four catastrophic marine pollution incidents indicates that 3~8% of spilled oil was removed mechanically by skimmers, 1~5% by in-situ burning, 4.8~16% by chemical dispersion due to dispersant operation, and 37~56% by weathering processes such as evaporation, dissolution, and natural dispersion. The results show that in-situ burning and chemical dispersion effectively remove spilled oil more than the mechanical removal by skimming, and natural weathering processes are also very effective to remove spilled oil. To apply the oil budget calculator in Korea, its parameters need to be optimized in response to the seasonal characteristics of marine environment, the characteristics of spilled oil and response technologies. A new algorithm also needs to be developed to estimate the oil budget due to shoreline cleanup activities. An oil budget calculator optimized in Korea can play a critical role in informing decisions for oil spill response activities and communicating spill prevention and response activities with the media and general public.

Comparison of Perception Differences About Nuclear Energy in 4 East Asian Country Students: Aiming at $10^{th}$ Grade Students who Participated in Scientific Camps, from Four East Asian Countries: Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore (동아시아 4개국 학생들의 핵에너지에 대한 인식 비교: 과학캠프에 참가한 한국, 일본, 대만, 싱가포르 10학년 학생들을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Hyeong-Jae;Park, Sang-Tae
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.775-788
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study was done at a scientific camp sponsored by Nara Women's University Secondary School, Japan. In this school, $10^{th}$ grade students from 4 East Asian countries: Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore, participated. We made a research on students' perceptions about nuclear energy. Sample populations include 77 students in total, with 12 Korean, 46 Japanese, 9 Taiwanese and 10 Singaporean students. Overall perceptions comparison about nuclear energy shows average values from the order of highest Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and to lowest, Japan. We implemented a T-test to identify perception differences about nuclear energy, with one group that include 3 countries (Korea, Taiwan and Singapore) and another group that includes all the Japanese students. T-test results of perceptions about nuclear energy shows students from the 3 countries of Korea, Taiwan and Singapore having higher average than Japanese students. (p<.05). Korean average scores regarding overall perceptions about nuclear energy show as the highest in all 4 East Asian countries and also highest in all subcategories. On the contrary in Japan, they have lower and negative perceptions of nuclear energy. In spite of these facts, perceptions of Japanese students about nuclear energy seem lowest and negative mainly because of the recent Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster, caused by the tsunami and its subsequent damages and fears of radiation leaks, etc. This shows that negative information about future disasters and its resulting damages like the Chernobyl nuclear accident could influence more on people's risk perception than general information like nuclear energy-related technologies or the news that the plant is operating normally, etc. Even if the possibility of this kind of accident is very low, just one accident could bring abnormal risks to technology itself. This strong signal makes negative image and strengthens its perceptions to the people. This could bring a stigma about nuclear energy. This study shows that Government's policy about the highest priority for nuclear energy safety is most important. As long as such perception and decision are fixed, we found that it might not be easy to get changed again because they were already fortified and maintained.

A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화 대응을 위한 발전소 온배수 활용 양식업 경제성 분석)

  • Lee, Sangsin;Kim, Shang Moon;Um, Gi Jeung
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.73-78
    • /
    • 2011
  • In order to resolve the problem of change in global climate which is worsening as days go by and to preemptively cope with strengthened restriction on carbon emission, the government enacted 'Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth' in 2010 and selected green technology and green industry as new national growth engines. For this reason, the necessity to use the un-utilized waste heat across the whole industrial system has become an issue, and studies on and applications of recycling in the agricultural and fishery fields such as cultivation of tropical crops and flatfishes by utilizing the waste heat and thermal effluent generated by large industrial complexes including power plants are being actively carried out. In this study, we looked into the domestic and overseas examples of having utilized waste heat abandoned in the form of power plant thermal effluent, and carried out economic efficiency evaluation of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of Yeongwol LNG Combined Cycle Power Plant in Gangwon-do. In this analysis, we analyzed the economic efficiency of a model business plan divided into three steps, starting from a small scale in order to minimize the investment risk and financial burden, which is then gradually expanded. The business operation period was assumed to be 10 years (2012~2021), and the NVP (Net Present Value) and economic efficiency (B/C) for the operation period (10 years) were estimated for different loan size by dividing the size of external loan by stage into 80% and 40% based on the basic statistics secured through a site survey. Through the result of analysis, we can see that reducing the size of the external loan is an important factor in securing greater economic efficiency as, while the B/C is 1.79 in the case the external loan is 80% of the total investment, it is presumed to be improved to 1.81 when the loan is 40%. As the findings of this study showed that the economic efficiency of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of power plant can be secured, it is presumed that regional development project items with high added value can be derived though this, and, in addition, this study will greatly contribute to reinforcement of the capability of local governments to cope with climate change.

  • PDF