• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.423-453
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• 2010

This study aims at quantifying potential economic effects on the Korean economy of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Most of the previous studies on them used static CGE models. Key findings of this study are that a China-Korea FTA would lead to a higher increase in Korea's exports and economic growth than a Japan-Korea FTA and that both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would cause additional trade deficits to Korea, which would be minuscule compared to Korea' economic trade volume. Since potential economic impacts on Korea's industry output and exports by sector of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA are forecast to be complementary, i.e., major sectors which would run trade deficits from a Japan-Korea FTA would run trade surpluses from a China-Korea FTA, a simultaneous pursuit of both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would be more desirable and beneficial to Korea. This study shows that a dynamic CGE model which can take explicit account of international capital mobility and ownership is required for more precise estimation of effects of the FTAs.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.81-105
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• 1995

본고(本稿)에서는 공적분방법(共積分方法)을 이용한 우리나라의 수출함수(輸出函數) 추정(推定)을 시도하였다. 이를 위하여 수출물량(輸出物量), 교역상대국(交易相對國)의 소득(所得), 수출품의 상대가격(相對價格)으로 이루어지는 수출수요함수(輸出需要函數)를 가정하고 각 변수에 대한 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)과 추정식의 공적분(共積分) 검정(檢定)을 실시하였다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定) 결과(結果) 해당 변수 모두가 단위근(單位根)을 갖는 것으로 판명되었으나, 이들 사이에 유의한 공적분관계(共積分關係)는 발견되지 않았다. 공적분(共積分)이 존재하지 않는다는 것은 수출수요함수(輸出需要函數)에 누락된 변수(變數)가 있을 가능성을 시사하는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 본고의 후반부에서는 이같이 누락되어 있는 변수들의 총체를 비가격경쟁력(非價格競爭力) 변수로 명명하고 이를 Kalman Filtering 방법으로 추정하고자 하였다. 추정결과, 얻어진 비가격경쟁력(非價格競爭力) 계열의 시간경로 모습은 대체적으로 선험적 기대에 부합하였으나 이로 인한 소득(所得) 및 가격탄성치(價格彈性値)의 변화는 몇가지 이론적인 근거에서 기대하였던 크기에 미흡하였다.

• Journal of the korean veterinary medical association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.253-257
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• 1998

동물에서 발생되는 질병의 수는 헤아릴 수 없이 많으며, 병인체도 다양하다. 이러한 질병을 효과적으로 관리하기 위하여, 우리나라의 가축전염병예방법(개정법률 제 4,885호; 1995. 1. 5)에는 제1종 전염병 26종과 제 2종 전염병 28종, 총 54종을 법정가축전염병(法定家畜傳染病)으로 지정해 놓고 있다. 최근에 들어, 1996년 3월에 영국에서 소해면형뇌증 (일병 광우병, BSE)이 인체에서의 변형 크로이츠휄트-야곱병 (v-CJD)과 관련하여 세계적인 주목을 받음은 물론 유럽연합 (EU)을 중심으로한 쇠고기의 국제교역에 크게 영향을 미치고 있으며, 지난해(1997) 3월에는 대만에 구제역 (口蹄疫, FAD)이 발생하여, 여러 양돈장에 급속히 퍼져, 대만의 수출주력 산업인 양돈업의 붕괴를 가져왔을 뿐만 아니라 국가적인 경제위기를 초래하였으며, 연간 약 9조원의 경제적인 손실이 예상되고 있고 양돈경기 회복을 위하여는 막대한 자금(약 40조원)과 긴 세월(최소 4-5년)이 필요할것으로 생각되고 있다. 한편, 국제적으로는 아주 전통적인 질병이며 한동안 자취를 감추었던 광견병과 기종저가 개발하여 피해를 입히고 있으며, 아주 최근에 알려진 새로운 원충성 유산증을 일으키는 네오스포라증도 확인되고 있다. 본 편에서는, 최근 국내에서 특히 문제시 되고 있는 풍토병인 기종저(blackleg)에 대하여 그 발생실태와 임상진단, 방역대책 등에 관하여 고찰해 보고자 한다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.25-58
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• 1987

본(本) 연구(硏究)는 해외여건 변화에 따른 우리나라 국제수지조정과정(國際收支調整過程)의 특징을 밝히며 아울러 이미 발표된 분기모형(分期模型) 추정기간(推定期間)을 1985년 제4분기까지 연장해 재추정한 결과를 보고하고 이를 이용해 해외여건 변화의 효과를 분석하고자 함에 그 목적이 있다. 국제수지(國際收支)의 변동(變動)을 요인별로 분화(分化)하여 보면 제1,2차 오일 쇼크 초기의 경상수지 악화는 유가급등(油價急騰)에 의한 교역조건 악화에 그 주인(主因)이 있다. 이후 경상수지 적자는 서로 다른 과정을 밟아 줄어들게 되는데 1976~77년의 경우 수출촉진(輸出促進)으로, 1981~82년의 경우 총수요조정(總需要調整)으로 국제수지 개선을 도모하였다. 이와 같이 양기간중 상이한 방법으로 적응한 것은 양기간중 해외여건이 서로 달랐기 때문이며 이 점에서 우리나라 국제수지의 조정도 여타 수출지향적(輸出指向的) 성장국(成長國)과 유사한 과정을 밟았다. 분기계량모형(分期計量模型)을 이용하면 제2차 오일 쇼크 기간에는 제1차 오일 쇼크 기간에 비해 유가(油價)가 상대적으로 덜 상승하였으나 해외수요(海外需要) 부진(不振), 달러강세(强勢) 및 고금리(高金利)로 해외여건은 전반적으로 우리 경제에 보다 불리하게 작용하였다. 1986년중 경상수지 흑자는 대부분 해외여건의 호전으로 설명되고 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.75-77
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• 2014

항만물류산업은 교역과 부가가치 창출, 높은 경제적 효과를 지닌 중요한 산업으로 그 영역이 점차 확대되고 있다. 항만물류산업의 효율화는 국가 경쟁력을 증대할 수 있는 방안 중 하나이며, 다수의 선행연구에서 그 영향에 대해 연구가 진행되었다. 본 연구의 산업 분류의 기준이 되는 한국표준산업분류의 9차 개정을 활용하고, 2010년 최초 시행된 경제총조사 자료를 활용하여 울산지역을 대상으로 항만물류산업이 지역경제에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 우리나라 5대 항만도시간 항만물류산업을 비교하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.145-160
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• 2021

This study attempted to analyze the trade in goods effect of the Korea-ASEAN FTA by using logistics performance index, which are evaluation indicators of logistics industry workers on the logistics environment and logistics system in international trade. The World Bank's logistics performance index are six indicators: customs clearance, logistics infra, ease of shipment, logistics services, goods tracking abilities, and on-time transportation. The purpose of this study was to examine how it affects commodity trade between Korea and ASEAN states using the gravity model using panel data. Through this, it was confirmed that logistics performance index affect the increase in commodity trade.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.139-152
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• 2008

China's rapid growth of economy and developing logistics facilities such as sea and air ports can give the good effects to increase the trade and logistics cargo volumes within Pan Yellow Sea Economic Bloc which consists of Korea, China, Japan and Russia. These phenomenon also stimulate the development of the West Coastal Integrated Belt in South Korea. In the past 20th century, South Korea's advanced and developed areas were located on the Kyeong-Bu Axis, the straight line of Seoul and Busan. However, due to the china's effect, this axis is moving into the West Coast area between Incheon (Seoul) and Mokpo, which is closely located to China. In this aspect, sea ports located in West Coast of Korea have shown the steep increase in container and non-container cargo volumes. With regard to the changing environments in sea ports, this paper's aim is to investigate the developing potential of Gunsan (Saemangum) area located on mid of West Coast. As results, targeted area have shown the potential in terms of port network, supply chain management and transferring location for container cargoes. Moreover, for implementing the suitable roles, construction of New Saemangun port, closely located in Gunsan port, is needed to overcome the limitations of Gunsan port.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.281-314
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• 2004

This paper theoretically formulated and empirically explored the relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for (average) market price and an individual country's price, using steel products data in the US market, with special reference to two major steel exporting countries, Korea and Japan. It was found that the direction of market ERPT can be different from that of individual ERPT that each exporter experiences, due to strategic interactions among producers and different parameters. Vector error correction (VEC) models and impulse response analysis were used with the statistical inference based on the bootstrap-after- bootstrap of Kilian (1998) for short-run, and the fully modified estimation of Phillips and Hansen (1990) was used for long-run. Empirical results indicate that market ERPT in the US market due to changes in Korea-US exchange rates is different from those due to changes in Japan-US exchange rates. The framework developed in this study indicates that this phenomenon is attributed to either (i) the two countries have individual ERPTs of different magnitudes and directions for the products in the US market, or (ii) the pricing strategies of the other exporters' (to the US steel market) respond differently depending on whether the price of the product from Korea changes or that from Japan does. As each exporter's ERPT can be significantly different, and market response to each country's ERPT can be also different, this study concludes that it is crucial for an exporter to understand how competitors in the market respond to changes in its price, as well as to understand how its price changes when the relevant exchange rate fluctuates.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.87-106
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• 2022

Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.75-86
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• 2007

This paper presents the overall valuation framework of the Army Tactical Command Information System(ATCIS) with its empirical data which is developed by the ROK Army in 2005 with its own R&D efforts over the past 10 years. The valuation with the appropriate methods is conducted through the full and relentless support of ROK Army HQs, defense agencies, and related firms. And the results include both qualitative and quantitative values of the ATCIS in perspectives of economic, technical, and defense strength effects. As a result, the development of ATCIS is valued over 1.7291 trillion Won which is over 6.55 times benefit and cost ratio comparing with other country's similar system. The worth of this paper includes the actual framework and methods to apply the valuation of other weapon systems and its preliminary research, defense offset valuation, performance evaluation and others.