• Title/Summary/Keyword: 관리정책방향

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The Utilization Pattern of a Rural Health Subcenter among Suburban Farmhouse Members (일 도시근교 농가구원의 보건지소 이용양상)

  • Sohn, Seok-Joon;Kwon, Sun-Seok;Kim, Sang-Won;Byun, Ju-Nam;Nam, Hae-Sung;Son, Myung-Ho
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 1999
  • In order to estimate the utilization pattern of a rural health subcenter, and to identify the recognition for it among the farmhouse members in a suburban area, a questionnaire survey was carried out for objects of 696 population. The results observed were as follows: The annual utilization rate of rural health subcenter for a basic health service unit was 25.0 per 100 persons, and annual mean visiting times was 0.22 times. And the most frequent disease by annual health subcenter utilization illness was musculoskeletal disease(30.6%), and the next was respiratory disease(14.1%), gastrointestinal disease(13.9%) by order. Favorite reason for community health subcenter utilization were near distance from living place(49.6%), lower disease severity(18.9%) and lower medical cost(18.1%) by order. But disfavoring reasons for it were absence of specialist(20.2%), non effective treatment(19.2%) and insufficient equipment(14.7%) by order. And insufficient items about community health subcenter utilization were restriction of treatment limit(40.7%), lower reliance(22.5%) and difficulty in traffic(13.4%) by order. The results of logistic regression analysis suggested that statistically significant factors in health subcenter utilization was educational level. The desirable works for the health subcenter in a suburban area were disease control of elderly and disease preventing service. These results suggested that to increase the utilization of rural health subcenter in a suburban area and to promote the accessibility of rural residents to primary health care, there must be considered public relation about health subcenter, improvement of medical quality and change of priority about health subcenter's works.

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Analysis of Household Textbooks for MiddleㆍHigh School in Colonial Age (식민지 시대 '가사교과서'에 관한 연구: 1930년대를 중심으로)

  • Jun Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2004
  • This study analyzes the external forms of the household textbooks and also the contents of them used at girls' middleㆍhigh schools during the period of Japanese ruling over Korea. To this end, 8 household textbooks published from 1928 to 1937 were analyzed. The results of the study are summarized as follows. 1. The household subject had become the one of the most important subjects to girl students as the practical uses were emphasized in educational area during the period. As a result. the classes of the household were the second in hours, following the class of Japanese (the national language) to girl students. 2. The contents of the household textbooks were intended to contain 'the modern' and 'the newest'. The students were also suggested to apply the contents of the textbooks to real home life. Many pictures, photos and illustrations were included in household textbooks to help students to understand the contents of the subject. 3. The purposes of the household class were the reformation of the living conditions and home economics. 4. The external characteristics of the household textbooks during the period were as follows. - Written in Japanese vertically and the size of the textbook was A5 (150/210) with pulp paper of good quality - The type style of the body of the textbooks was Ming-style type- The sequent order of the textbooks was the outer cover, the title page, pictorial, introduction, table of contents, the body, appendix and the back cover. 5. The household textbooks consisted of the first volume and the second volume. The first volume contained clothing and textiles, food and nutrition and housing. Taking care of the aged. nursing. child care, household economy and home management were included in the second volume. 6. The household textbooks were designed to make women the housewives.

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A Comprehensive Review of the Foreign Literature regarding Protest Crowd Counting (집회시위 참가인원 집계방식에 대한 선행연구 고찰 - 국외연구 분석 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Hak-kyong
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.58
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    • pp.9-34
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    • 2019
  • The Korean Police Force is equipped with the dual responsibility to not only protect the constitutional right to protest, but also prevent potential disorder and misconduct might be caused by the abuse of such a right. To this end, the Korean national police employ the crowd counting methodology, termed 'Maximum Figure at Any One Time' with a view to dispatching the proportionate number of police officers to protest scenes for safety management. However, protest organizers rather take advantage of 'Cumulative Figure' methodology, the purpose of which being to publicize the wide recognition of success, noticeably by demonstrating that as many people as possible support for their cause or voice. Hence, different estimates generated by different methods have raised serious political issues in Korean society. Nevertheless, it is found out that there are only three existing academic studies in Korea regarding crowd counting methods, and they are mainly geared towards comparing the two methods, unfortunately without any attempt to analyze the foreign literature in details. Keeping the research gap in mind, the research conducts a comprehensive review of the foreign literature with relation to protest crowd counting methods. Derived from the review and analysis, the counting methods can be broadly categorized into the three models such as: 1) Grid/Density Model, 2) Moving Crowds Model, and 3) Electronic & Non-Image Model. In the end, the research provides brief explanations regarding specific research findings per each model, and further, suggests some policy implications for the development of more accurate crowd counting methodology at protests in Korea.

Nuclear Terrorism and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism(GICNT): Threats, Responses and Implications for Korea (핵테러리즘과 세계핵테러방지구상(GICNT): 위협, 대응 및 한국에 대한 함의)

  • Yoon, Tae-Young
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.26
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    • pp.29-58
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    • 2011
  • Since 11 September 2001, warnings of risk in the nexus of terrorism and nuclear weapons and materials which poses one of the gravest threats to the international community have continued. The purpose of this study is to analyze the aim, principles, characteristics, activities, impediments to progress and developmental recommendation of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism(GICNT). In addition, it suggests implications of the GICNT for the ROK policy. International community will need a comprehensive strategy with four key elements to accomplish the GICNT: (1) securing and reducing nuclear stockpiles around the world, (2) countering terrorist nuclear plots, (3) preventing and deterring state transfers of nuclear weapons or materials to terrorists, (4) interdicting nuclear smuggling. Moreover, other steps should be taken to build the needed sense of urgency, including: (1) analysis and assessment through joint threat briefing for real nuclear threat possibility, (2) nuclear terrorism exercises, (3) fast-paced nuclear security reviews, (4) realistic testing of nuclear security performance to defeat insider or outsider threats, (5) preparing shared database of threats and incidents. As for the ROK, main concerns are transfer of North Korea's nuclear weapons, materials and technology to international terror groups and attacks on nuclear facilities and uses of nuclear devices. As the 5th nuclear country, the ROK has strengthened systems of physical protection and nuclear counterterrorism based on the international conventions. In order to comprehensive and effective prevention of nuclear terrorism, the ROK has to strengthen nuclear detection instruments and mobile radiation monitoring system in airports, ports, road networks, and national critical infrastructures. Furthermore, it has to draw up effective crisis management manual and prepare nuclear counterterrorism exercises and operational postures. The fundamental key to the prevention, detection and response to nuclear terrorism which leads to catastrophic impacts is to establish not only domestic law, institution and systems, but also strengthen international cooperation.

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Understanding the Legal Structure of German Human Gene Testing Act (GenDG) (독일 유전자검사법의 규율 구조 이해 - 의료 목적 유전자검사의 문제를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Na-Kyoung
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.85-124
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    • 2016
  • The Human gene testing act (GenDG) in Germany starts from the characteristic features of gene testing, i.e. dualisting structure consisted of anlaysis on the one side and the interpretation on the other side. The linguistic distincion of 'testing', 'anlaysis' and 'judgment' in the act is a fine example. Another important basis of the regulation is the ideological purpose of the law, that is information autonomy. The normative texts as such and the founding principle are the basis of the classification of testing types. Especially in the case of gene testing for medical purpose is classified into testing for diagnostic purpose and predictive purpose. However, those two types are not always clearly differentiated because the predictive value of testing is common in both types. In the legal regulation of gene testing it is therefore important to manage the uncertainty and subjectivity which are inherent in the gene-analysis and the judgment. In GenDG the system ensuring the quality of analysis is set up and GEKO(Commity for gene tisting) based on the section 23 of GenDG concretes the criterium of validity through guidelines. It is also very important in the case of gene testing for medical purpose to set up the system for ensurement of procedural rationality of the interpretation. The interpretation of the results of analysis has a wide spectrum because of the consistent development of technology on the one side and different understandings of different subjects who performs gene testings. Therefore the process should include the communication process for patients in oder that he or she could understand the meaning of gene testing and make plans of life. In GenDG the process of genetic counselling and GEKO concretes the regulation very precisely. The regulation as such in GenDG seems to be very suggestive to Korean legal polic concerning the gene testing.

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Evaluation on Climate Change Vulnerability of Korea National Parks (국립공원의 기후변화 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Chong-Chun;Kim, Tae-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.42-50
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with $1km{\times}1km$ grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park's sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks' local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea's national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks' local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks' environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.

Feasibility Study of the Northern Terengganu Rural Development Project, Phase II, Malaysia (말레이시아 북부(北部) 뜨렝가누 농촌개발(農村開發) 제(第)2단계사업(段階事業) 타당성(妥當性) 연구(硏究))

  • Lim, Jae Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.201-237
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    • 1992
  • 본(本) 연구(硏究)는 1992년(年) 2월(月)부터 동년(同年) 8월(月)까지 한국(韓國)의 농어촌진흥공사(農漁村振興公社)(RDC)와 말레시아의 KTA기술용역단간(技術用役團間)의 기술제휴하(技術提携下)에 아세아개발은행(亞細亞開發銀行)의 기술협력기금(技術協力基金)에 의(依)한 말레지아북부(北部) Terengganu 농촌개발제(農村開發第)2단계사업(段階事業)의 타당성조사연구(妥當性調査硏究) 결과(結果) 중 말레시아정부(政府)의 경제정책방향(經濟政策方向), 농업개발(農業開發) 및 사업(事業)의 경제적(經濟的) 재무적(財務的) 타당성(妥當性)만을 발췌(拔萃)하여 본(本) 논문(論文)에 수록(收錄)하였다. 본(本) 농촌개발사업지구(農村開發事業地區)는 말레시아의 북동(北東)쪽에 위치(位置)하고 있는 Terengganu State의 Setiu-Besut양(兩) Distict가 포함(包含)되는데 경제적(經濟的)으로 가장 낙후(落後)된 지역(地域)으로 매년(每年) 행사(行事)처럼 찾아오는 홍수(洪水)때문에 농경지(農耕地)를 집약적(集約的)으로 경작(耕作)하지 못함으로써 지역농민(地域農民)들은 빈곤(貧困)에서 벗어나지 못하고 있고 침수기간중(浸水期間中)에는 지역(地域)의 경제활동(經濟活動)은 물론(勿論) 교통(交通)마저 불통(不通)되고 농촌하부구조(農村下部構造)의 손실(損失)은 물론(勿論) 사회경제적(社會經濟的)인 손실(損失)이 크며 Setiu River의 하구(河口)가 침전(沈澱)되어 어선(漁船)의 출입(出入)이 점점(漸漸) 곤란(困難)해지므로써 어민(漁民)들의 생계(生計)에도 위협(威脅)을 주는 지역(地域)이다. 따라서 본(本) 타당성(妥當性) 조사연구(調査硏究)의 근본적(根本的)인 목적(目的)은 농촌(農村)의 빈곤(貧困)을 타파(打破)하기 위하여 (1) 홍수(洪水)를 방지(防止)하고, 배수(排水) 및 관개개선(灌漑改善)을 하며, 하구(河口)를 개발(開發)하여 어민(漁民)들의 생산활동(生産活動)을 돕고 지역주민(地域住民) 및 농민(農民)들의 경제활동(經濟活動) 및 농업생산성(農業生産性)을 제고(提高)시키며 (2) 환경보호(環境保護) 및 관리(管理)를 통(通)하여 지역주민(地域住民)에게 쾌적(快適)한 농촌생활환경(農村生活環境)을 제공(提供)하고 생태계(生態系)의 변화(變化)를 방지(防止)하며 (3) 다각적(多角的)인 영농활동(榮農活動)을 통(通)하여 지역농민(地域農民)의 소득(所得)을 극대화(極大化) 할 수 있는 개발(開發)의 기본구상(基本構想)과 이에 대한 기술적(技術的) 경제적(經濟的) 타당성(妥當性)을 구명(究明)하는 것이다. 본(本) 사업지역(事業地域)의 총면적(總面積)은 9,500ha이며 이는 4,680ha의 기설지구(旣設地區)의 개보수관개사업(改補修灌漑事業)과 500ha의 과수단지(果樹團地), 200ha의 채소단지(菜蔬團地), 500ha의 옥수수단지(團地), 250ha의 엽연초생산단지(葉煙草生産團地), 2,760ha의 오일팜 및 고무나무단지에 소, 염소 및 양(洋)을 사육(飼育)하는 종합적(綜合的)인 농촌개발(農村開發)로서 농가(農家)의 농업소득제고(農業所得提高)에 큰 기여(寄與)를 하게 되며 Setiu강(江)의 유역(流域) 4,090ha에 대한 홍수경감대책(洪水輕減對策)으로 지역주민(地域住民)의 생활안정(生活安定) 및 교통(交通), 관광(觀光), 사회경제적(社會經濟的) 생산활동(生産活動)을 촉진(促進)하는 사업(事業)을 하게된다. 본(本) 사업(事業)의 공사기간(工事期間)은 1993년(年)부터 5개년간(個年間)이며 총사업비(總事業費)는 외화(外貨) 2천만불(千萬弗)을 포함(包含)하여 5천(千) 5백만불(百萬弗)로 추정(推定)되었다. 년간사업수익(年間事業收益)은 사업(事業)의 완전운영기간(完全運營期間)인 2003년(年)을 기준(基準)으로 할 때 15,541백만불(百萬弗)로 추정(推定)되었으며 사업(事業)의 내구기간(耐久期間)은 30년(年)으로서 2023년(年)까지 생산(生産)이 계속(繼續)될 것이다. 본(本) 사업(事業)의 전체재무수익율(全體財務收益率)은 22.49%이며 경제적(經濟的) 수익률(收益率)은 19.30%로 경제적(經濟的)인 타당성(妥當性)이 매우 높음을 알 수 있다. 모든 사업(事業)이 계획(計劃)대로 성공적(成功的)으로 추진(推進)될 경우 사업지역내(事業地域)의 몽리농가(蒙利農家) 4,000호(戶)가 큰 혜택(惠澤)을 보게되고 농촌(農村)의 빈곤수준(貧困水準)(Poverty Line)은 현재(現在)의 36%에서 18%수준(水準)으로 경감(輕減)될 것이 기대(期待)되고 있다.

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담배자판기, 신규설치 금지 및 철거 규제안 철회되다

  • 한국자동판매기공업협회
    • Vending industry
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    • v.2 no.5 s.6
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2002
  • 담배자판기의 신규설치를 금지하고 기존 설치된 자판기마저 전면철거하도록 하는 보건복지부의 초강력 규제안이 마침내 철회가 되게 되었다. 보건복지부는 올 들어 확대되는 금연정책에 편승, 기존 흡연 구역 내 담배자판기 신규설치를 금지하고, 기존 설치된 제품들마저 전면철거하는 규제를 담은 국민건강증진법 시행령 개정안을 지난 4월 공고하며 그 입법추진을 진행한 바 있다. 이 공고안은 그간 국무총리실 산하 규제개혁위원회 분과위원회에 상정되어 1,2차 심의를 진행해 오다 지난 9월 27일 본회의를 통해 '보건복지부의 흡연구역 내 담배자판기 신규설치 금지 및 기존 자판기 철거는 명백히 영업활동 자유 및 재산권 침해에 해당된다.'는 이유로 이를 철회토록 하는 결정을 진행했다. 이 결정을 담은 국민건강증진법 개정안은 조만간 법제처 심사 및 차관회의 등을 거쳐 최종 확정 되게 된다. 이같은 규제개혁위원회의 결정은 협회를 중심으로 한 산업의 적극적인 대응이 있었기에 가능했다. 성인인증장치 도입을 통해 청소년 흡연문제를 완전, 해결하겠다는 산업계의 적극적인 자율대책에도 불구하고 아예 담배자판기를 뿌리 채 뽑겠다는 보건복지부의 행정만능주의적인 발상은 도저히 수용하지 못할 부당한 처사라는 데 관련업계가 인식을 같이 했다. 따라서 이를 반대하는 산업계 입장을 분명히 하며 분명히 하며 적극적인 저지 대응을 최근까지 진행해 왔다. 협회에서는 1차적으로 보건복지부 건강증진과에 담배자판기 전면철거에 대한 산업계 반대 입장을 피력하는 소견서 제출하고 적극적인 산업계의 반대의지를 피력하는 작업을 진행했다. 또한 청소년보호위원회를 통해 청소년 흡연감소를 위한 성인인증 담배자판기 설치 활용방안 건의하며 담배자판기의 긍정적인 활용측면을 집중 부각시키기도 했다. 재정경제부를 통해서는 담배사업법 관련 담배자판기 설치기준에 대한 질의를 통해 현행 관련법 내에서의 설치기준을 명확히 하기도 했다. 이같은 대응에 있어서의 핵심 설득 논리는 담배자판기가 이제는 성인인증장치 부착을 통해 청소년 및 사회적 위해 요인을 극소화 할 수 있다는 점에 있었다. 과거와는 달리 담배자판기가 오히려 청소년의 담배 구입루트 차단이라는 긍정적 역할을 할 수 있는 시점에 있어 이를 전면규제하기보다는 합법적인 설치 환경을 확보하여 사회적으로 떳떳하게 존재가치를 평가받을 수 있게 해달라는게 산업계의 초지일관의 주장이었던 것. 협회는 이같은 주장이 결코 산업계의 이기만이 아니라 세계적인 추세라는 점, 또 담배자판기를 전면철거까지 하면서 과당규제를 할 명분이 부족하다는 점을 반대논리로 적극 내세웠다. 규제개혁위원회가 이번 공공 이용시설 중 흡연구역으로 지정된 장소 내에 담배자판기는 설치 금지 및 철거규제에 철회권고를 내리게 된 것은 이러한 산업계의 주장을 적극 수용함에 힘입은 바 크다. 규제개혁위원회는 이번 결정의 주된 이유로 우선 기설치된 자판기에 대한 철거는 재산권 침해로 위헌 소지가 있음을 들고 있다. 또한 흡연자를 위한 흡연구역내에서마저 자판기 설치를 금지하는 등의 규제는 과도하며 흡연자의 권익보호 역시도 필요함을 인정하고 있다. 따라서 전면적인 규제보다는 청소년 이용통제 가능한 흡연구역에 한하여 담배자판기를 설치토록한 현행규정의 실질적 관리를 강화하며, 전체적으로 흡연구역을 축소 제한하는 방향으로 추진함이 바람직하다는 의견을 제시했다. 규제개혁위원회의 이번 결정으로 흡연구역 내 담배자판기의 설치는 현행법의 적용을 받게 되며, 산업계의 자율대책대로 성인인증 장치를 부착한 담배자판기의 설치 확대가 크게 촉발될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 담배자판기가 적극적이고 능동적인 사회적 역할을 할 수 있을 때 자연 이를 반대할 수 있는 명분도 약해질 수 밖에 없다. 산업계는 보다 신뢰성 있게 청소년 이용을 차단할 수 있는 담배자판기 관련 기술 수준을 향상시켜야 할 것이며, 협회에서는 담배자판기의 공공성과 역할에 대한 지속적인 계몽 홍보를 통해 소비자 인식을 고양시켜 나갈 수 있게 해야 할 것이다. 비록 전면 규제 완화가 어렵고 힘든 길이기는 하지만 소비자에게 신뢰성을 부여하고 청소년의 담배 구입 루트 차단에 혁혁한 역할을 다할 수 있게 된다면 그 입지기반을 재평가 받을 수 있게 될 것이다. 담배자판기의 내일은 이제 암울함이 아닌 서서히 희망을 비치는 쪽으로 급선회되고 있다.

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A Study on the Level of Citizen Participation in Smart City Project (스마트도시사업 단계별 시민참여 수준 진단에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Ji-Ho;PARK, Joung-Woo;NAM, Kwang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2021
  • Based on the global smart city promotion trend, in 2018, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution Committee" selected "sustainability" and "people-centered" as keywords in relation to the direction of domestic smart city policy. Accordingly, the Living Lab program, which is an active citizen-centered innovation methodology, is applied to each stage of the domestic smart city construction project. Through the Living Lab program, and in collaboration with the public and experts, the smart city discovers local issues as it focuses on citizens, devises solutions to sustainable urban problems, and formulates a regional development plan that reflects the needs of citizens. However, compared to citizen participation in urban regeneration projects that have been operated for a relatively long time, participation in smart city projects was found to significantly differ in level and sustainability. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the characteristics of citizen participation at each stage of an urban regeneration project and, based on Arnstein's "Participation Ladder" model, examined the level of citizen participation activities in the Living Lab program carried out in a smart city commercial area from 2018 to 2019. The results indicated that citizen participation activities in the Living Lab conducted in the smart city project had a great influence on selecting smart city services, which fit the needs of local residents, and on determining the technological level of services appropriate to the region based on a relatively high level of authority, such as selection of smart city services or composition of solutions. However, most of the citizen participation activities were halted after the project's completion due to the one-off recruitment of citizen participation groups for the smart city construction project only. On the other hand, citizens' participation activities in the field of urban regeneration were focused on local communities, and continuous operation and management measures were being drawn from the project planning stage to the operation stage after the project was completed. This study presented a plan to revitalize citizen participation for the realization of a more sustainable smart city through a comparison of the characteristics and an examination of the level of citizen participation in such urban regeneration and smart city projects.

Future Prospects of Forest Type Change Determined from National Forest Inventory Time-series Data (시계열 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 전국 산림의 임상 변화 특성 분석과 미래 전망)

  • Eun-Sook, Kim;Byung-Heon, Jung;Jae-Soo, Bae;Jong-Hwan, Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2022
  • Natural and anthropogenic factors cause forest types to continuously change. Since the ratio of forest area by forest type is important information for identifying the characteristics of national forest resources, an accurate understanding of the prospect of forest type change is required. The study aim was to use National Forest Inventory (NFI) time-series data to understand the characteristics of forest type change and to estimate future prospects of nationwide forest type change. We used forest type change information from the fifth and seventh NFI datasets, climate, topography, forest stand, and disturbance variables related to forest type change to analyze trends and characteristics of forest type change. The results showed that the forests in Korea are changing in the direction of decreasing coniferous forests and increasing mixed and broadleaf forests. The forest sites that were changing from coniferous to mixed forests or from mixed to broadleaf forests were mainly located in wet topographic environments and climatic conditions. The forest type changes occurred more frequently in sites with high disturbance potential (high temperature, young or sparse forest stands, and non-forest areas). We used a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) to establish a forest type change model (SVM) to predict future changes. During the 40-year period from 2015 to 2055, the SVM predicted that coniferous forests will decrease from 38.1% to 28.5%, broadleaf forests will increase from 34.2% to 38.8%, and mixed forests will increase from 27.7% to 32.7%. These results can be used as basic data for establishing future forest management strategies.