• Title/Summary/Keyword: 과소추정

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Demand Estimation of Car-sharing Service Using Web-site Reservation Requesting Log Data (웹사이트 조회이력자료를 활용한 카셰어링 수요 추정 및 분석)

  • Kwon, Ohyeon;Choi, Yoon-Young;Byun, Wan-Hee;Lee, Chungwon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.10-17
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    • 2015
  • Currently, there are increasing demand for researches on the development of car-sharing operating strategy. In order to carry out the research, demand for car-sharing is required. However, since previous researches only adopted performance data or demand derived from several assumptions, spilled demand has been spotted due to lack of available cars. For this reason, we plan to suggest the way to estimate the value including spilled demand which has been spotted previously based on the record of utilization on the website of operating company, actual company providing car-sharing service. In the case of 'LH Happycar Service', difference between estimated demand and record of utilization is about twice the difference between estimated demand and record of inquiry. Especially, it is found that service rate does not go above once it reaches to its maximum rate because it cannot satisfy additional demands. In short, when we evaluate the demand for individual station based on the record of utilization only, it would be possible to underestimate the demand especially for the station at full capacity.

Assessment of Forest Biomass using k-Neighbor Techniques - A Case Study in the Research Forest at Kangwon National University - (k-NN기법을 이용한 산림바이오매스 자원량 평가 - 강원대학교 학술림을 대상으로 -)

  • Seo, Hwanseok;Park, Donghwan;Yim, Jongsu;Lee, Jungsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.4
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    • pp.547-557
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    • 2012
  • This study purposed to estimate the forest biomass using k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) algorithm. Multiple data sources were used for the analysis such as forest type map, field survey data and Landsat TM data. The accuracy of forest biomass was evaluated with the forest stratification, horizontal reference area (HRA) and spatial filtering. Forests were divided into 3 types such as conifers, broadleaved, and Korean pine (Pinus koriansis) forests. The applied radii of HRA were 4 km, 5 km and 10 km, respectively. The estimated biomass and mean bias for conifers forest was 222 t/ha and 1.8 t/ha when the value of k=8, the radius of HRA was 4 km, and $5{\times}5$ modal was filtered. The estimated forest biomass of Korean pine was 245 t/ha when the value of k=8, the radius of HRA was 4km. The estimated mean biomass and mean bias for broadleaved forests were 251 t/ha and -1.6 t/ha, respectively, when the value of k=6, the radius of HRA was 10 km. The estimated total forest biomass by k-NN method was 799,000t and 237 t/ha. The estimated mean biomass by ${\kappa}NN$method was about 1t/ha more than that of filed survey data.

Estimation of Nondestructive Strength Equations Based on the Results of In-situ Concrete Strength for Existing Bridges (국내 교량의 현장 코어강도를 활용한 개선된 비파괴강도 추정식 제안)

  • Kim, Hun-Kyom
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.98-104
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    • 2018
  • Nondestructive strength Equations are commonly used to determine the strength of concrete. However, the application of the existing equations may include many errors because this method is proposed on the basis of limited experimental parameters while actual bridges have various parameters such as conditions of concrete mixtures, properties of concrete strength, etc. Also, the error among the existing equations causes the confusion when engineers select the proper estimation equation for the concerned bridge. In this study, a series of the field inspection and the test have been performed on 297 existing bridges, in order to evaluate the bridges, based on the test results of the in-depth inspection, and the estimated strengths by means of the nondestructive strength equations are analyzed and compared with results of the core specimen strengths. According to results of analyses, the nondestructive strength equation proposed by CNDT Committee of Architectural Institute of Japan had high relationship with core strength. However, the strengths predicted by this equation, are underestimated when concrete's strengths are over 30 MPa, otherwise, they are overestimated. Also in this paper, based on the relationship between the estimated nondestructive concrete strengths and the core specimen strengths the modified strength equation through simple correlation analysis is proposed.

Experimental study for the development of hydrophone-based bedload discharge estimation algorithm (하이드로폰 기반 소류사량 추정 알고리즘 개발을 위한 실험적 연구)

  • Choi, jong ho;Jun, kye won;Jang, chang duk;Kim, hyeon gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.225-225
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    • 2020
  • 최근 국내·외에서는 재래식 소류사량 채집기를 이용한 직접계측방법의 한계를 보완하기 위해 음향센서(하이드로폰)를 활용하여 소류사가 이동할 때 발생하는 충돌음 신호로부터 소류사량을 간접적으로 추정하는 방법이 개발 검토되고 있다. 이러한 방법은 하이드로폰에 계측된 음향신호의 특성 중 음향 펄스 수와 소류사량의 상관성을 해명하는 연구가 주를 이루고 있다. 그러나 기존의 펄스 카운트 알고리즘은 원시신호에 대한 불충분한 노이즈 필터링 작업과 음향특성 중 진폭만을 고려하여 임계치를 설정하였기 때문에 운송되는 소류사량이 많을 경우 신호 파형의 중첩으로 인한 펄스 수의 과소평가, 감지 가능한 상한 입자 크기가 제한되는 등의 결점을 가지고 있다. 또한 대다수의 연구가 소류사량의 총량과 시계열적인 변화를 추정하는데 주안점을 두고 있어 소류사량의 입도분포를 추정하기 위한 연구사례는 매우 부족한 실정에 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위와 같은 한계를 극복하기 위해 다양한 입경과 유속 조건을 고려한 단독입자 공급 실험을 통해 하이드로폰에서 계측되는 소류사 입경별 충돌음의 진폭과 특정 주파수대역을 기준으로 음향특성치를 효과적으로 필터링 할 수 있는 개선된 Band-Passs Method 방법을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법의 검증을 위해 기존의 음향신호 필터링 방법(증폭 채널 방법, 임계치 설정 방법)과 비교·분석을 수행한 결과 제안한 방법이 기존의 필터링 방법보다 높은 소류사량 추정률을 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 아울러 단일입경 연속공급 실험을 수행하여 입경별 소류사량 추정관계식을 산출하고 혼합입경의 입도분포 추정 가능성을 확인하였다. 연구수행의 최종단계로 혼합입경 소류사량 추정이 가능한 입경별 통합 소류사량 추정 알고리즘을 개발하고 실측 소류사량과의 비교·분석을 통해 알고리즘의 소류사량 추정 정밀도를 검증하였다.

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Assimilation of Satellite Based Soil Moisture With Ensemble Kalman Filter (앙상블 칼만필터 기반 위성 토양수분 자료 동화 기법)

  • Park, Jeongha;Lee, Jaehyeon;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 앙상블 칼만필터(Ensemble Kalman Filter)를 통해 인공위성 기반 토양수분 자료를 수문모형에 동화하여 단위 격자에 대한 수문인자를 산출하고자 한다. 수문모형은 Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model을 대상으로 수행하였으며, 시범 유역으로는 소양강댐 유역을 선정하였다. 입력자료는 2007년 이후 8년간 자료를 수집하였으며, 2007-2010년 관측 유량 자료를 사용하여 모형을 보정하고, 2011-2014년 자료를 통하여 검증하였다. Isolated-Speciation Particle Swarm Optimization(ISPSO) 기법을 통하여 매개변수를 추정하였고, 보정기간 뿐 아니라 검증 기간에 대해서도 높은 모형효율성계수를 얻을 수 있었다. VIC 모형 자료 동화 대상 자료로는 AMSR2 위성 토양 수분 자료, 지상관측 토양수분 보간자료 및 조건부합성방법을 통한 위성/지점 융합 토양수분을 선정하였다. 위성 토양 수분 자료는 값을 과대 추정하는 경향이 있었으며, 지상관측 보간 자료는 유량이 큰 사상에 대한 첨두 유량을 과소 추정하는 경향을 보였다. 인공위성자료와 지상 자료를 합성한 조건부합성기법 토양수분자료는 더 정확한 추정이 가능하여 모의의 정확도가 향상되었다. 본 연구를 통해서 미계측 유역에 대해 격자별 수문기상인자 정보를 제공할 수 있으며, 데이터베이스를 구축하여 다양한 수문분석에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Evaluation of Grinding Effects on the Extraction of Photosynthetic Pigments for HPLC Analysis (광합성 색소의 HPLC 분석을 위한 여과지 분쇄 효과 평가)

  • Jang, Su Jin;Park, Mi Ok
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2015
  • High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) is a widely used method for measuring the concentration of chlorophyll a as an indicator for estimating phytoplankton biomass and primary production and also for identifying carotenoids to determine phytoplankton composition. However, tissue grinding procedure requires a lot of time and experience in the analysis of multiple sample. Accordingly, we measured the concentrations of photosynthetic pigments before and after the grinding, in order to understand the grinding effects on the quantitative analysis of chlorophylls and carotenoids using samples from southwestern East Sea. When tissue grinding procedure was omitted, we found that Chl a concentrations were underestimated up to 45% in average. Also, concentrations of Zeaxanthin, 19'-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin, 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin, biomarkers of pico and nano-size phytoplankton, were underestimated up to maximum 77~85% without grinding. We found that the smaller the phytoplankton, the bigger underestimation of their biomarker pigments concentration is likely to happen due to the incomplete extraction. Thus, tissue grinding procedure should be included for HPLC analysis in all cases, to prevent the underestimation of not only Chl a but also carotenoids pigments.

Estimation of Operating Cost and Efficiency of the Introduction of Urban Subway (대중교통 운영비용계수 추정 및 도시철도 도입 효율성 검토)

  • Park, Jun-Sik;Oh, Dong-Kyu;Kho, Seung-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.113-122
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    • 2008
  • This study extended Park et al.(2007c), which analyzed the efficiency of a hierarchical transit network, showed the result of a real data, and analyzed its applicability. Operating cost was estimated using a model which was established in this study, and minimum transit demand was derived from the operating cost. The minimum transit demand value is just a sample calculation, thus it varies by many inside and outside factors of the model. Looking at the inside of the model, operating cost and travel speed are major factors, and the possibility of introducing urban subway becomes high when the operating cost of the transit system is low and its travel speed is high. As far as the outside factors are concerned, according to the analysis on the network structure, transit demand, and transit mode share, the minimum transit demand value which was derived in this study will be the maximum value among the possible values. In the feasibility study, the benefit is likely to be overestimated and the cost is likely to be underestimated than those of this study. It could be concluded that the methodology of a feasibility study is appropriate in the field standard. This study analyzed the efficiency of introduction of urban subway using analytical approach, thus has many shortcomings and limitations. However the practical approach, like feasibility study, has some limitations as well. This study could be a basis on establishing an analysis framework that is more accurate and reasonable by comparing analytical approach and practical approach.

Optimal Sampling Method of Censored Data for Optimizing Preventive Maintenance (예방정비 최적화를 위한 중도절단 자료의 최적 샘플링 방안)

  • Lee, In-Hyun;Oh, Sea-Hwa;Li, Chang-Long;Yang, Dong-In;Lee, Key-Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.196-201
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    • 2013
  • As there is no failure data for the entire lifecycle of a product, when analyzing reliability measures based on early failure data only, there may be a significant error between the estimated mean life and the real one, because it can be underestimated, or on the other hand, it can be overestimated when analyzing reliability measures based on a large amount of censored data with the failure data. To resolve the issue, this study proposes an optimal sampling estimation procedure that selects the proportion of censored data to estimate the optimal distribution with the idea that the estimated distribution could be approximated as closely as the real life distribution. This would work if we sampled the optimal proportion on the censored data, because failure data has real intrinsic distribution in any situation. We validate the proposed procedure using an actual example. If the proposed method is applied to the maintenance policy of TWC (Train to Wayside Communication) system, then we can establish the optimal maintenance policy. Thus, we expect that it will be effective for improvement of reliability and cost savings.

Estimation of reflectivity-rainfall relationship parameters and uncertainty assessment for high resolution rainfall information (고해상도 강수정보 생산을 위한 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수 보정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.321-334
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    • 2021
  • A fixed reflectivity-rainfall relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and different seasons, can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian inference framework. A calibrated spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly for the wet season and parameter for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields. In contrast, the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer relationship show a systematic underestimation. In the event of high impact weather, it is expected that the value of national radar resources can be improved by establishing an active watershed-level hydrological analysis system.

Generation of radar rainfall data for hydrological and meteorological application (I) : bias correction and estimation of error distribution (수문기상학적 활용을 위한 레이더 강우자료 생산(I) : 편의보정 및 오차분포 산정)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Jang, Sang-Min;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2017
  • Information on radar rainfall with high spatio-temporal resolution over large areas has been used to mitigate climate-related disasters such as flash floods. On the other hand, a well-known problem associated with the radar rainfall using the Marshall-Palmer relationship is the underestimation. In this study, we develop a new bias correction scheme based on the quantile regression method. This study employed a bivariate copula function method for the joint simulation between radar and ground gauge rainfall data to better characterize the error distribution. The proposed quantile regression based bias corrected rainfall showed a good agreement with that of observed. Moreover, the results of our case studies suggest that the copula function approach was useful to functionalize the error distribution of radar rainfall in an effective way.