• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.331-336
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• 2011

Capacitance soil moisture sensor is extensively used by soil research and irrigation management with its convenience and accuracy. This experiment was conducted to evaluate the acceptability of capacitance soil moisture sensor, named EnviroSCAN made by Sentek Ltd., in Jeju Island where volcanic ash soils are widely distributed, and to calibrate it to various soils with different amount of soil organic matter. For sensor calibration equation of volcanic ash soils, a logarithm function is better than a typical power function of non-volcanic ash soils. So there are possibilities of under evaluated in soil water contents in very wet and very dry conditions by using typical power function with volcanic ash soil areas. We suggested practical coefficients of typical calibration equation for using capacitance sensor in volcanic ash soils, also suggested equations for estimation of them with soil organic matter contents. The measurement of soil water content with a capacitance sensor can be affected by some soil characteristics such as porosity, soil organic matter content, EC, etc. So those factors should be controlled for improving the accuracy of measurement.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.spc1
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• pp.1131-1141
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• 2021

In this study, the artificial neural network model is applied for real-time dam inflow prediction and then evaluated for the prediction lead times (1, 3, 6 hr) in dam basins in Korea. For the training and testing the model, hourly precipitation and inflow are used as input data according to average annual inflow. The results show that the model performance for up to 6 hour is acceptable because the NSE is 0.57 to 0.79 or higher. Totally, the predictive performance of the model in dry seasons is weaker than the performance in wet seasons, and this difference in performance increases in the larger basin. For the 6 hour prediction lead time, the model performance changes as the sequence length increases. These changes are significant for the dry season with increasing sequence length compared to the wet season. Also, with increasing the sequence length, the prediction performance of the model improved during the dry season. Comparison of observed and predicted hydrographs for flood events showed that although the shape of the prediction hydrograph is similar to the observed hydrograph, the peak flow tends to be underestimated and the peak time is delayed depending on the prediction lead time.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.82-95
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• 2021

We investigated the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total organic carbon (TOC) in all 13 locations of Masan Bay from February to November in 2015. The COD and TOC contents were high during the June-August period when the pollution load increased. In particular, the concentrations of COD and TOC were about twice as high in the surface water as in the bottom water. In spatial distribution, the COD and TOC concentrations at the inner bay were about twice as high as those of the outer bay in Masan Bay. As a result of estimating the oxidation efficiency of COD from the surface layer of Masan Bay in 2015 based on the theoretical oxygen demand (TOD), it was at the level of about 23%. Due to the low oxidation efficiency of COD, there is a risk that the organic matter in Masan Bay will be somewhat underestimated. Therefore, for quantitative analysis of organic matter, COD and TOC analyses need to be combined.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.6_2
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• pp.1193-1202
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• 2018

It is important to quantitatively analyze the energy budget for understanding of long-term climate change in Arctic. High-quality and long-term radiative parameters are needed to understand the energy budget. Since most of radiative flux components based on satellite are provide for a short period, several data must be used together. It is important to acquaint differences between data to link for conjunction with several data. In this study, we investigated the comparative analysis of Arctic radiative flux product such as CERES and GEWEX to provide basic information for data linkage and analysis of changes in Arctic climate. As a result, GEWEX was underestimated the radiative variables, and it difference between the two data was about $3{\sim}25W/m^2$. In addition, the difference in high-latitude and sea ice regions have increased. In case of comparing with monthly means, the other variables except for longwave downward flux represent high difference of $9.26{\sim}26.71W/m^2$ in spring-summer season. The results of this study can be used standard data for blending and selecting GEWEX and CERES radiative flux data due to recognition of characteristics according to ice-ocean area, season, and regions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.515-529
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• 2022

Identifying the available water resources amount is an essential process in establishing a sustainable water resources management plan. Dam facility is a major infrastructure storing and supplying water during the dry season, and the water supply yield of the dam varies depending on dam inflow conditions or operation rule. In South Korea, water supply yield of dam is calculated by reservoir simulation based on observed historical dam inflow data. However, the water supply capacity of a dam can be underestimated or overestimated depending on the existence of historical drought events during the simulation period. In this study, probabilistic inflow data was generated and used to estimate the appropriate range of the water supply yield of hydropower dams. That is, a method for estimating the probabilistic dam inflow that fluctuates according to climatic and socio-economic conditions and the range of water supply yield for hydropower dams was presented, and applied to hydropower dams located in the Han river in South Korea. It is expected that the understanding water supply yield of the hydropower dams will become more important to respond to climate change in the future, and this study will contribute to national water resources management planning by providing potential range of water supply yield of hydropower dams.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.1077-1089
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• 2022

With the construction of Seoul National University (SNU), the Mt. Gwanak watershed has undergone some urbanization. As with other campus catchments, data related to the water cycle is extremely limited. Therefore, this study began by collecting hydrological and meteorological data using Atmos-41, a complex meteorological observation instrument. The observation results of Atmos-41 were validated by analyzing the statistical characteristics and confidence intervals based on the monthly variability of data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Results of the previous research were used to validate the simulated surface runoff and infiltration using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The potential evapotranspiration (PET) simulated by the SWMM was rectified by comparing it to the Atmos-41 observation data. Multiple regression analysis was employed to adjust for the fluctuations in precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed because the calculated SWMM PET tends to be underestimated during periods of low temperatures. R² increased from 0.54 to 0.80 when compared to the Atmos-41 PET. The rate of change in the water cycle as a consequence of the SNU's construction resulted in a 15.7% increase in surface runoff, a 14.2% decrease in infiltration rate, and a 1.6% decrease in evaporation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.41-46
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• 2022

Recently, the scale of flood damage occurring in urban areas is increasing due to climate change and urbanization, so various flooding analysis techniques are needed. In the Sadangcheon Stream basin, which has been continuously flooded since 2010, a basic plan for improving drainage was established using XP-SWMM and measures to prevent flooding were proposed. However, in the process of inundation analysis, the analysis considering the city's buildings was not conducted, resulting in a problem that the degree of flooding damage tends to be overestimated. Therefore, in this study, XP-SWMM was used to compare and analyze cases where buildings were not considered and designated as inactive areas. As a result of the study, it was analyzed if the building was not considered, the flood damaged area was 271,100 m² and the depth of submersion was 0.15 m, and if the building was considered inactive area, the flood damaged area was 172,900 m² and the depth of submersion was 0.32 m that it is under-estimated about 36% and an flow velocity around the building increased from 1.62 m/s to 1.83 m/s about 1.12 times.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.51-70
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• 2018

This study is to define the relationship between capital structure and the market share in the global shipping market, estimating the debt-equity ratio. To analyze the impact of the debt-equity ratio on market share, this study collected data from the 100 largest shipping companies from 2010 to 2017. Results identified that global shipping lines moderate their debt-equity rates to 62%, and all of them strategically utilize debt in order to increase market share in global shipping market. In comparison between the group focused on cargo volume and another group focused on freight rates, it is found that the group focused on cargo volume increase their handling cargo volume through increasing the debt rates. Another group used debt rate for reducing the freight rate and enhancing market power. Furthermore, after classifying the samples into high-growth and low-growth companies, this study compared the group focused on cargo volume and another group focused on freight rates. As a result, the low-growth group showed more significant impacts of the debt rate on market share than the high-growth group. The results of this study provide useful insight for future strategic decision making of shipping lines in the global shipping market.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-124
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• 2003

This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.