• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.207-207
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• 2023

데이터 기반 강수 예측 모델은 극한 강수 이벤트의 크기를 과소 추정하는 경향이 있다. 이는 훈련 데이터에 극한 강수 이벤트보다 일반적인 강수 이벤트가 많이 포함되어 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 이러한 딥러닝의 데이터 불균형 문제를 해소하고자 모델을 학습시킬 때 격자별 극한 강수에 더 큰 가중치를 주어 극한 강수 예측의 정확성을 높이는 방법을 제안한다. 딥러닝 모델 중 공간-시간 필드를 정확하게 예측할 수 있는 ConvLSTM 기반 강수 예측 모델을 활용하여 레이더 강수량을 예측하였다. 먼저, 훈련 기간 동안의 강수 이벤트의 누적 분포 함수 CDF(Cummulative distribution funcion)을 그린 후 극한 강수 이벤트와 일반적인 강수 이벤트의 분포를 확인하였다. 그다음, 적은 분포를 가진 극한 강수 이벤트의 더 큰 가중치를 두어 모델을 학습시켰다. 이 모델은 대한민국 중부 지역 (200km x 200km)의 5km-10분 해상도 레이더-계량기 복합 강수 필드에 대해 2009-2014년 기간 동안 훈련 되었고 2015-2016년 동안 모델의 훈련을 검증 하였고, 2017-2018년 동안 테스트 되었다. 다양한 가중치 함수를 기반으로 훈련 시킨 결과 최적화 가중치 함수 모델의 평균 NSE는 0.6 평균 RMSE는 0.00015 그리고 극한 강수 이벤트만 따로 추출한 평균 MAE는 6이다. 결과적으로 제안된 모델은 기존 방법에 비해 예측 성능을 향상 시켰으며, 격자별 가중치를 두었을 경우 일반적인 강수 이벤트 뿐만 아니라 극한 강수 이벤트의 예측의 정확도를 향상시켰다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.57-57
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• 2022

국내의 댐·하천 설계기준은 다양한 수자원 시설물 설계 시에 활용되고 있으나, 강우사상에 대한 분석은 과거의 강우 사상에 대한 통계분석에 따라 수행되어 기후변화의 영향을 고려하지 않고 있다. 또한, 하천 설계기준에서는 홍수량 산정에 대한 방안을 명시한 바에 따르면, 홍수량 산정 표준지침에서 활용하는 빈도해석을 활용하는 방안 또는 강우-유출모형을 활용한 방안을 제시하고 있으나, 홍수량 산정 표준지침 역시 미래 강수 변화에 대한 구체적인 방안을 반영하지 않고 있는 실정이다. 전 세계적인 기후변화는 국내의 기후변동성을 증가시켜 극한강우사상의 빈도와 강도를 증대시키므로 이를 고려한 미래강우에 대한 분석이 필요한 시점이다. 일반적으로 기후 전망에 활용되는 전지구 모델(Global Climate Model; GCM)은 한반도의 복잡한 지형을 고려하기 어려우므로 지역적인 강제력을 보다 효과적으로 고려하기 위하여 지역기후모델(Regional Climate Model; RCM)을 사용하고 있다. 역학적으로 상세화 된 RCM은 비교적 고해상도의 자료를 제공하고 있으나, 강수량을 전반적으로 과소 추정하는 것으로 알려지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지속시간 1-24시간 연최대 강우량(annual maximum rainfalls; AMRs)과 역학적 상세화 된 SSP 시나리오 일 자료를 활용하며, Copula 함수 기반의 상세화 모형을 통해 Sub-Daily 정보를 시간적으로 상세화 하였다. 최종적으로 이를 활용하여 미래 IDF 곡선을 유도하였다. 산정된 IDF 곡선 결과를 활용하여 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 설계강수량 변화량을 정량적으로 제시하고자 한다.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.552-564
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to measure energy expenditure (EE) the metabolic equivalents (METs) of 13 common physical activities by using a portable telemetry gas exchange system ($K4b^2$) and to assess the accuracy of the accelerometer (Actigraph $GT3X^+$) by gender in Korean adults. Methods: A total of 109 adults (54 males, 55 females) with normal BMI (body mass index) participated in this study. EE and METs of 13 selected activities were simultaneously measured by the $K4b^2$ portable indirect calorimeter and predicted by the $GT3X^+$ Actigraph accelerometer. The accuracy of the accelerometer was assessed by comparing the predicted with the measured EE and METs. Results: EE (kcal/kg/hr) and METs of treadmill walking (3.2 km/h, 4.8 km/h and 5.6 km/h) and running (6.4 km/h) were significantly higher in female than in male participants (p < 0.05). On the other hand, the accelerometer significantly underestimated the EE and METs for all activities except descending stairs, moderate walking, and fast walking in males as well as descending stairs in females. Low intensity activities had the highest rate of accurate classifications (88.3% in males and 91.3% females), whereas vigorous intensity activities had the lowest rate of accurate classifications (43.6% in males and 27.7% in females). Across all activities, the rate of accurate classification was significantly higher in males than in females (75.2% and 58.3% respectively, p < 0.01). Error between the accelerometer and $K4b^2$ was smaller in males than in females, and EE and METs were more accurately estimated during treadmill activities than other activities in both males and females. Conclusion: The accelerometer underestimated EE and METs across various activities in Korean adults. In addition, there appears to be a gender difference in the rate of accurate accelerometer classification of activities according to intensity. Our results indicate the need to develop new accelerometer equations for this population, and gender differences should be considered.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.228-240
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• 2018

Solar energy is calculated using meteorological (14 station), ceilometer (2 station) and microwave radiometer (MWR, 7 station)) data observed from the Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) on the Seoul metropolitan area. The cloud optical thickness and the cloud fraction are calculated using the back-scattering coefficient (BSC) of the ceilometer and liquid water path of the MWR. The solar energy on the surface is calculated using solar radiation model with cloud fraction from the ceilometer and the MWR. The estimated solar energy is underestimated compared to observations both at Jungnang and Gwanghwamun stations. In linear regression analysis, the slope is less than 0.8 and the bias is negative which is less than $-20W/m^2$. The estimated solar energy using MWR is more improved (i.e., deterministic coefficient (average $R^2=0.8$) and Root Mean Square Error (average $RMSE=110W/m^2$)) than when using ceilometer. The monthly cloud fraction and solar energy calculated by ceilometer is greater than 0.09 and lower than $50W/m^2$ compared to MWR. While there is a difference depending on the locations, RMSE of estimated solar radiation is large over $50W/m^2$ in July and September compared to other months. As a result, the estimation of a daily accumulated solar radiation shows the highest correlation at Gwanghwamun ($R^2=0.80$, RMSE=2.87 MJ/day) station and the lowest correlation at Gooro ($R^2=0.63$, RMSE=4.77 MJ/day) station.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.110 no.4
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• pp.648-657
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• 2021

This study was conducted to estimate the volume growth by forest type and major species using the national forest resource inventory and to predict the final age of maturity by deriving the mean annual increment (MAI) and the current annual increment (CAI). We estimated the volume growth using the Chapman-Richards model. In the volume estimation equations by forest type, coniferous forests exhibited the highest growth. According to the estimation formula for each major species, Larix kaempferi will grow the highest among coniferous tree species and Quercus mongolica among broad-leaved tree species. And these estimation formulas showed that the fitness index was generally low, such as 0.32 for L. kaempferi and 0.21 for Quercus variabilis. In the analysis of residual amount, which indicates the applicability of the volume estimation formula, the estimates of the estimation formula tended to be underestimated in about 30 years or more, but most of the residuals were evenly distributed around zero. Therefore, these estimation formulas have no difficulty estimating the volume of actual forest species in Korea. The maximum age attained by calculating MAI was 34 years for P. densiflora, 35 years for L. kaempferi, and 31 years for P. rigida among coniferous tree species. In broad-leaved tree species, we discovered that the maximum age was 32 years for Q. variabilis, 30 years for Q. acutissima, and 29 years for Q. mongolica. We calculated MAI and CAI to detect the point at which these two curves intersected. This point was defined by the maximum volume harvesting age. These results revealed no significant difference between the current standard cutting age in public and private forests recommended by the Korea Forest Service, supporting the reliability of forestry policy data.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.431-455
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• 2009

This study estimates the WTP for the plan of solving deforestation due to limestone mining and calculates that damage cost using contingent valuation method. As the results of analysing a dichotomous choice CV data, the yearly mean WTP per household for the plan is 5,045 won(95% confidence interval : 3,729~6,360 won) in single bounded CV model and is 4,361 won(95% confidence interval : 3,710~5,012 won) in double bounded CV model. The damage cost of deforestation due to limestone mining can be estimated as 55.3% of WTP for the plan which is assigned to restoring the deforestation area to the original or similar alternative state. The average yearly deforestation cost of 1 ha due to limestone mining is reached 20.90 million won(95% confidence interval : 16.53~25.27 million won). And the asset value of that 1 ha damage is 160.02 million won(95% confidence interval : 126.56~193.49 million won). The fact is found that the damage cost of deforestation using replacement cost method is likely to be underestimated. The total damage cost of deforestation because of limestone mining in 3 cities (Donghae, Samcheok, Yeongwol) is 204.0 billion won(95% confidence interval : 161.4~246.7 billion won) which is composed of 26.5% for Donghae, 28.9% for Samcheok, and 44.6% for Yeongwol according to the damage size of deforestation due to limestone mining in 3 cities.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-38
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• 2005

Our paper aims to estimate a household consumption function in the presence of liquidity constraints as well as household characteristics. Empirical findings from a Korean cross-sectional data (National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure) reveal that several family characteristics, such as household size, number of working members, children in school, and educational level and age of the household head, turn out to be critical determinants of household consumption. Especially, the influence of household size on consumption decision is shown to be highly significant, not only indirectly through its impact on household income, but also directly by affecting the household's preference for consumption itself. While, the other family characteristics primarily influences household income. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing literature in that it greatly improves the explanatory power of the estimated household consumption function by measuring the degree of the liquidity constraint rather than simply identifying its presence. Based on the assumption that the present value of human capital is a function of household characteristics, the degree of the liquidity constraint is represented by the underestimated portion of the human capital. Such a method of implementing the liquidity constraint is useful in treating various types of assets according to their liquidity. Finally, our estimated household consumption function is applied to decompose cross-sectional variances of consumption inequality. The analysis confirms that the overall alleviation in liquidity constraints in Korea after the 1997 currency crisis reduced consumption inequality despite the worsening of income inequality and changes in the demographic composition of family characteristics during the same period.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.6_3
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• pp.1187-1196
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• 2017

Despite the continuing effort to estimate the value of function and services of ecosystem, most of the researches has used low and medium resolution satellite imagery such as MODIS or Landsat. It means that the researches to measure the ecosystem service value using VHR (Very High Resolution) satellite imagery have not been performed much, while the source of available VHR imagery is increasing. Thus, the aim of this study is to estimate and compare the result of ecosystem service value over Sejong city, S. Korea, which is one of the rapidly changed city, through the pixel-based and object-based classification analysis using VHR KOMPSAT-3 images, for more specific and precise information. In the result of the classification, forest and grassland were underestimated while agriculture and urban were overestimated in the pixel-based result compared to the object-based result. Furthermore, bare soil area was presented contrasting result that was increased in the pixel-based result, however, decreased in the object-based result. Using those results, ecosystem service values were estimated. The annual ecosystem service values in 2014 were $8.18 million USD(pixel-based) and $8.63 million USD(object-based), however, decreased to $7.80 million USD(pixel-based) and $8.62 million USD(object-based) in 2016. It is expected to use those results as a preliminary data when to make sustainable development plan and policy to improve the quality of life in the local level.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.17-28
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• 2020

With respect to the tensile strength of volcanic rocks in Jeju Island, a comparative study was conducted using the existing research results and the test results performed in this study. In addition, the characteristics and effectiveness of the cohesion and internal friction angle estimated from the Brazilian tensile strength and unconfined compressive strength of Jeju volcanic rocks were investigated. As results, the Brazilian tensile strength of Jeju volcanic rocks was closely related to absorption, and decreased exponentially as the absorption increased. It was confirmed that the internal friction angle was closely related to the ratio of unconfined compressive strength to Brazilian tensile strength (σ_c / σ_t), and increased logarithmically as the ratio of σ_c / σ_t increased. In addition, the ratios of σ_c / σ_t of Jeju volcanic rocks were in the range of 5~20 depending on the magnitude of internal friction angle. In the case of cohesion, it was closely related to the absorption and Brazilian tensile strength. The cohesion exponentially decreased as the absorption increased, such as the relation between the Brazilian tensile strength and absorption. It was confirmed that there was a linear relation between the cohesion and Brazilian tensile strength.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.9
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• pp.933-946
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• 2013

The quantitative analysis of evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component in hydrological studies and the establishment of water resources planning. Generally, the quantitative analysis of ET is performed by the estimation method of potential or reference ET based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, wind speed, etc. Hargreaves equation is one of empirical methods for reference ET using air temperature data. In this study, in order to estimate more exact reference ET considering climatological characteristics in Korea, parameter regionalization of Hargreaves equation is carried out. Firstly, modified Hargreaves equation is presented after the analysis of the relationship between solar radiation and temperature. Secondly, parameter ($K_{ET}$) optimization of Hargreaves equation is performed using Penman-Monteith method and modified equation at 71 weather stations. Lastly, the equation for calculating $K_{ET}$ using temperature data is proposed and verified. As a result, reference ET from original Hargreaves equation is overestimated or underestimated compared with Penman-Monteith method. But modified equation in this study is more accurate in the climatic conditions of Korea. In addition, the applicability of the equation between $K_{ET}$ and temperature is confirmed.