• Title/Summary/Keyword: 과대 분류

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A study on the development of a Blue-green algae cell count estimation formula in Nakdong River downstream using hyperspectral sensors (초분광센서를 활용한 낙동강 하류부 남조류세포수 추정식 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Gwang Soo;Choi, Jae Yun;Nam, Su Han;Kim, Young Dod;Kwon, Jae Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2023
  • Due to abnormal climate phenomena and climate change in Korea, overgrowth of algae in rivers and reservoirs occurs frequently. Algae in rivers are classified into green algae, blue-green algae, diatom, and other types, and some species of blue-green algae cause problems due to odor and the discharge of toxic substances. In Korea, an algae alert system is in place, and it is issued based on the number of harmful blue-green algae cells. Thus, measuring harmful blue-green algal blooms is very important, and currently, the analysis method of algae involves taking field samples and determining the cell count of green algae, blue-green algae, and diatoms through algal microscopy, which takes a lot of time. Recently, the analysis of algae concentration through Phycocyanin, an alternative indicator for the number of harmful algae cells, has been conducted through remote sensing. However, research on the analysis of the number of blue-green algae cells is currently insufficient. In this study, we water samples for algal analyses were collected from river and counted the number of blue-green algae cells using algae microscopy. We also obtained the Phycocyanin concentration using an optical sensor and acquired algae spectra through a hyperspectral sensor. Based on this, we calculated the equation for estimating blue-green algae cell counts and estimated the number of blue-green algae cells.

Distribution Survey of Babesia and Assessment of Tick-borne Diseases in Jeju, Republic of Korea (Babesia의 제주 지역 내 분포 조사)

  • Jiro KIM;YoungMin YUN
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2024
  • From March to November 2021, a study conducted in Jeju used the dry ice trap method to collect 17,855 ticks across six regions, examining their distribution and potential as disease vectors. The ticks were identified and categorized by species and growth stage. In addition, the study focused on Babesia, a disease transmitted by hard ticks. Of 17,641 ticks from which DNA had been extracted, 581 pools underwent polymerase chain reaction testing. Of these, 43 pools tested positive for Babesia, with the highest positivity found in Western Seogwipo (23 pools, 53.5%), followed by eastern Seogwipo and central Jeju. The peak times for positive results were April and July. This study highlights an increased risk of tick bites linked to the rising number of abandoned pets in Jeju, necessitating ongoing environmental management and monitoring. These findings provide fundamental data for formulating strategies to prevent and manage tick-borne diseases in Jeju. This involves reducing the disease incidence through targeted preventive measures and detailed epidemiological research. These results underscore the necessity for continued vigilance and proactive intervention to address the health challenges ticks pose in the region.

A CLINICAL STUDY OF THE TYPE OF DISEASE AND SYMPTOM ACCORDING TO SASANG CONSTITUTION CLASSIFICATION (체질진단분류(體質診斷分類)에 따른 질병(疾病) 및 증상유형(症狀類型)에 관한 임상적(臨床的) 연구(硏究) II (문진표를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Young-woo;Kim, jing-weon
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 1999
  • The object of this study is 196 patients who had been treated in the Oriental Medical Hospital at Dong Eui Medical Center during 33 months from January 1996,3 to June 1998,11. We proceeded the judgment of Sasang Constitution by 'Questionnaire of Sasang Constitution Classification(I)' and 'Questionnaire of Sasang Constitution Classification II(QSCCII)'. The following conclusion were made in comparison with Sasang Constitution and Questionnaire about disease and style of symptoms. 1. The subject of "increase of the weight of a body(gain weight), sweatier, the body swelled out, a lame pain, more like fat food, more like salty food", has significant differences in sasang constitution classification. The frequency of Taeeum group is more than that of Soeum group and Soyang group. 2. The subject of "the complextion is bas, uncomfortable feeling in the throat, insomnia, loss of appetite, apt to be fatigued easily, gastralgia what is not connected with food, diarrhea, headache, menorrhalgia, less like fat food, more like fresh food", has significant differences in sasang constitution classification. The frequency of Soeum group is more than that of Taeeum group and Soyang group. 3. It has not significant differences, but the frequency of Soyang group is more than that of Taeeum group and Soeum group in the subject of "the cough in the disease of the respiratory organs, hypomotility of the joint in the disease of the musculo-skeletal systems, menoxenia like menorrhagia and menostaxia and itching sensation of genitals in the disease of the gynecological organs, itching or boil in the dermatological disease", and fewer in the cardio-vascular disease, urinary disease and hematic disease. The frequency of Soeum group is more than that of Taeeum group and Soyang group in the subject of "the general disease of the digestive organs, uncomfortable feeling or pain of the throat in the disease of the respiratory organs, the general hematic disease, numbness or pain of the musculo-skeletal disease, psychical disease in the psychoneurotical disease, menorrhalgia, a lump of the breasts, leukorrhea in the gynecological disease, eruption or urticaria in the dermatological disease, the general visual and auditory disease". The frequency of Taeeum group is more than that of Soyang group and Soeum group in the subject of "a hoarseness in the disease of the respiratory organs, A lame pain of the musculo-skeletal disease, neurotical disease in the psychoneurotical disease, eruption or urticaria in the dermatological disease", and fewer in the the gynecological disease.

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A Study on the Health Risk Agents in the Workplace of a General Hospital (한 종합병원 작업환경의 건강저해인자에 관한 조사 연구)

  • Kim, Yang-Ok;Kim, Ki-Soon;Park, Jong;Ryu, So-Yeon;Yang, Hee-Yeon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.1 s.52
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1996
  • To evaluate the health risk of the workplace environment of a general hospital toward the hospital workers, a questionnaire survey on the perception of risk at the workplace environment and environmental measurements at 27 locations with 240 workers in the hospital were made from October 25th, 1993 to October 30th, 1994. The results were as follows ; 1. By the environmental measurements, 86 workers(36%) were found to be exposed to poor or harmful degree of general illumination, 193 workers(80%) were exposed to poor or harmful local illumination, 34 workers(14%) were exposed to poor or harmful degree of thermal condition and 180 workers(75%) were exposed to poor or harmful noise level, but nobody was exposed to poor or harmful dust and toluene concentration. Also nobody was exposed to poor or harmful level of radiation or anticancer/antibiotic agents. 2. The subjective perceptions on the environmental conditions felt by the workers were different from the objective findings by the environmental measurements. The workers underscored the poor illumination state and overscored the dust concentrations. Also workers oversensitized about the thermal condition, the noise level, the radiation level, the toluene concentration and anticancer/antibiotic agents 3. The sources of noise were the dialogue(179 workers) and the office instruments(131 workers). The sources of dust came from the clothes(108 workers) and the building materials(79 workers). 4. The questionnaire survey showed that the 28 workers were exposed to poor or harmful level of the antibiotics, 10 workers to alkali or acid and 6 workers to drug dust in the pharmacy but the above findings could not be proved by the environmental measurements.

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Correlation of Ultrasonographic Findings and Cytologic or Histopathologic Diagnoses of Splenic Lesions in Dogs : 124 cases (개에서 비장 병변의 초음파 소견과 세포학 및 조직병리 진단과의 상관관계 : 124 마리)

  • Kim, Jun-Young;Lee, Nam-Soon;Choi, Mi-Hyun;Kim, Wan-Hee;Youn, Hwa-Young;Hwang, Cheol-Yong;Kim, Dae-Yong;Lee, In-Hyung;Choi, Min-Cheol;Yoon, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.134-140
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    • 2012
  • This retrospective study was performed to describe and evaluate ultrasonographic characteristics of splenic disorders and to pursue any relationship with cytologic or histopathologic diagnoses. Medical records were reviewed for patients that had undergone both abdominal ultrasonographic procedures and ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA) or surgical biopsy of splenic lesions or necropsy from January 2002 to July 2011 at Seoul National University Hospital for Animals. Total 124 dogs, 76 cases with FNA and 48 cases with biopsy, were available for this investigation. The age of dogs ranged from 2 to 17 years ($mean{\pm}SD$ = $9.54{\pm}3.34$ years), with the gender distribution of 61 females (26 spayed) and 63 males (40 neutered). In breed distribution, 114 were purebred dogs and 10 were mixed breed dogs. The dogs represented 26 breeds, with 113 dogs categorized into small-sized breeds. The ultrasonographic appearances of splenic disorders could be classified into 10 types including normal appearance, depending on the distribution and echogenicity of splenic lesions as well as the increase in spleen size and diffuse parenchymal changes. Among 124 cases, 44 (35.4%) had hypoechoic nodules/masses with the highest frequency, followed by 23 (18.5%) with multiple small hypoechoic nodules. Of 124 cases, 70 (56.5%) were benign and 54 (43.5%) were malignant lesions at cytologic or histopathologic results. Each ultrasonographic appearance had variable cytologic or histopathologic diagnoses. However, diffuse heterogenicity and diffuse hypoechogenicity were significantly associated with malignancy (p < 0.05), whereas hyperechoic nodules/masses were more often associated with benignity (p < 0.05). Based on our results, it may be considered that the ultrasonographic examination for spleen could be able to provide the least information necessary for benign and malignant lesions in prioritizing differential diagnoses.

The Style and Cultural Significance of Film Color White (영화색채 하양의 활용 양상과 문화적 의미)

  • Kim, Jong-Guk
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2020
  • With the cultural background of whiteness I did examine the universal meaning of absolute good, the special of psychosis, and the fantastic of femininity and memory/record. As an example I analyzed the symbolic meaning of white used in Korean films. Unconditional goodness, white as a generality: White color in all the films of good-evil confrontation falls into this category. The most obvious and the simplest configuration are the black-white dichotomy. In Nameless Gangster: Rules of Time(2011), The Merciless(2016), Asura: The City of Madness(2016) and The Bad Guys: Reign of Chaos(2019), white is the absolute good but it is not limited to a fair key figure. Paradoxically, black is not given only to the side of absolute evil. White is used to be a flexible visual device that reflects the socio-political situation without changing the meaning of the general good. Psychosis and pills, white as a peculiarity: The visual function that emphasizes sado-masochism in the absolute good and the universal symbol of white extends to psychotic specificities such as hysteria. In all the films creating horror, white symbolizes the mentally disabled and the pill for healing. Femininity and haunted white: White of absolute good is expressed by the socio-cultural tendency of femininity and the black-white contrast of vision is applied to the gender difference. In general the women's sexuality is emphasized in color red, but white is arranged in the background. In TaeGukGi: Brotherhood Of War(2004), 71: Into The Fire(2010), My Way(2011), The Front Line(2011), Roaring Currents(2014), Northern Limit Line(2015), The Battle: Roar to Victory(2019) and Battle of Jangsari(2019), white given to female figures sticks to the traditional femininity such as motherhood, sacrifice and weakness. The concept of specters is applied to desires, memories/records, history, fantasy, virtual/reality and social media images. The film history capturing to list memories and moments brings up the specters of socio-political genealogy. Most of films aiming for socio-political change are its examples and white constituting Mise-en-scene records to remember a historical event in Peppermint Candy(2000), The Attorney(2013) and A Taxi Driver(2017).

체질별(體質別) 식품표(食品表)에 근거한 태음인(太陰人), 소음인(少陰人), 소양인(少陽人) 당뇨식단(1800kcal)의 초보(初步)적 제시

  • Kim, Ji-Yeong;Go, Byeong-Hui
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.395-411
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    • 1996
  • 1. 연구배경 사상체질의학(四象體質醫學)을 창시하여 개인(個人)의 차별성(差別性)을 강조한 동무(東武) 이제마(李濟馬)는 양생(養生)의 방법(方法)에서도 체질별(體質別) 요법(療法)을 말하고 있는데 체질별(體質別)로 과소지장(過小之臟)의 기능(機能)이 정상적(正常的)으로 이루어지는 상황을 완실무병(完實無病)의 조건으로 제시(提示)하였고 이를 위한 수단(手段)으로 성정(性情)과 함께 약물(藥物), 식품(食品) 등을 이용하였다. 특히 식이요법(食餌療法)에 있어서도 체질(體質)에 따른 구별(區別)의 필요성(必要性)을 말하고 있는데 식품(食品)이라 하더라도 그 음식(飮食)을 섭취하여 과대(過大)한 장기(臟器)의 기능(機能)은 유제(柳制)하고 과소(過小)한 기능(機能)은 보완(補完)받음으로써 불균형(不均衡)을 조정(調整)한 것이다. 당뇨병의 식단 작성은 평생동안 열량(熱量)과 영양소(營養素) 필요치(必要置)을 맞출 것을 권장하고 당뇨병학회에서 편집한 식품교환표(食品交換表)를 사용(使用)하는 것이 일반적(一般的)인데 식품교환표(食品交換表)는 많은 식품(食品)들중에 같은 영양소를 가진 식품(食品)들을 한 그룹으로 묶어 환자(患者)의 기호(嗜好)에 따라 교환(交煥)해 가면서 먹을 수 있도록 고안(考案)한 것이니 이에 지시한 수량(數量)만 섭취해도 저(低)cal식(食)으로 관양(管養)의 균형(均衡)이 잘 이루어진다. 본 연구는 체질별로 이로운 식품표에 근거하여 식이요법(食餌療法)이 특히 강조되고 하루 섭취열량이 제한되는 성인병중의 하나인 당뇨병(糖尿病)의 식단(1800kcal)을 식단작성법에 따라 구성(構成)하여 몇가지 예를 제시해 보았다. 구체적으로 태음인(太陰人), 소음인(少陰人), 소양인(少陽人)의 당뇨 환자 1800kcal에 대한 식단을 구성하여 제시했는데 즉, 태음인(太陰人)의 식단은 태음인(太陰人)에 유리(有利)한 식품(食品)들로 구성하고 해(害)로운 식품(食品)들은 제외시키는 방법(方法)을 이용하였다. 이 식단은 다분히 이론적(理論的)인 식단으로 임상(臨床)에 이용(利用)하여 본 바는 없으나 동량(同量)의 열량(熱量)을 섭취(攝取)하더라도 체질(體質)에 적합(適合)한 식품(食品)으로 구성된 식사(食事)가 각 체질의 섭생(攝生)에 더 유리(有利)하지 않올까 하는 단순(單純)한 사고(思考)에 바탕을 둔 것이다. 2. 연구방법 1) 후세가(後世家)가 주장(主張)한 체질별(體質別) 식품(食品) 분류(分類)를 종합, 정리한 체질별(體質別) 식품표(食品表)를 제시한다. 박석언의 동의사상대전, 박인상의 동의사상요결, 송일병의 알기 쉬운 사상의학, 홍순용의 사상진료보원, 홍순용, 이을호의 사상의학원론에서 체질별로 유익한 식풍을 조사하여 곡류, 과일류, 채소류, 어패류, 육류로 분류하여 살펴본다. 2) 당뇨병(糖尿病) 식이요법의 식단 작성법의 개요(槪要)를 제시한다. 3) 1)의 체질별(體質別) 식품표(食品表)로 태음인(太陰人), 소음인(少陰人), 소양인(少陽人)의 당뇨 식단 1800kcal을 작성해 제시(提示)한다. 체질별(體質別)로 유익(有益)한 식품(食品)은 1)의 식품표에 근거(根據)하고 체질별(體質別)로 해(害)로운 식품(食品)은 노정우(盧正祐), 한동석(韓東錫)의 주장에 근거(根據)한다. 3. 결과 체질별(體質別) 식품표(食品表)는 후세가의 연구를 종합하여 제시(提示)하였고, 식품(食品)을 분류(分類)한 후(後) 약명(藥名)과 성미(性味), 귀경(歸經)을 찾아 도표화 하였다. 체질별 식품들은 대부분 소음인(少陰人)의 경우 신감(辛甘) 온열(溫熱)하며 비위(脾胃)로 귀경(歸經)하고 태음인(太陰人)의 경우 감신(甘辛) 온열(溫熱)하며 폐간(肺肝)으로 귀경(歸經)하고 소양인(少陽人)의 산고(酸苦) 양한(凉寒)하고 신(腎)으로 귀경(歸經)함이 우세(優勢)함을 알 수 있다. 즉, 체질적으로 양성(陽性)인 소양인(少陽人)은 식품의 성질이 음성(陰性)인 것이 유리(有利)하고 체질적으로 음성(陰性)인 태음인(太陰人), 소음인(少陰人)은 식품의 성질이 양성(陽性)인 것이 유리(有利)하다. 다양한 식품(食品)을 섭취하고자 하는 환자의 욕구(慾求)에 맞추면서도 식품교환의 범위를 체질별로 유익한 식품들로 제한하여 동일(同一)한 열량(熱量)의 식단이라도 체질에 맞는 식품으로 차별성(差別性)을 두었는데 식단의 작성은 전문 영양사의 의견을 거쳤다. 제시된 식단은 다소 이론적(理論的)으로 작성(作成)된 단계이고 임상적(臨床的) 검증을 거친 바 없으나 활용하기에 따라 실용성을 얻을 수 있으리라 본다. <식단예> 태음인의 식단: 곡류 : 콩, 율무, 밀가루, 밀, 수수, 들깨, 고구마, 땅콩, 기장, 옥수수, 두부, 설탕등 태음인에 유리한 식품으로 교환한다 어때류 : 우렁이, 대구, 조기, 민어, 청어, 오정어, 낙지, 미역, 김, 다시마등으로 교환한다 육류 : 소고기, 우유등으로 교환한다 과일류 : 밤, 배, 호도, 은행, 잣, 살구, 매실, 자두등으로 교환한다 채소류 : 무우, 도라지, 연근, 토란, 마, 고사리, 더덕, 목이버섯, 송이버섯, 석이버섯등으로 교환한다 해로운 음식 : 닭, 돼지, 모밀, 배추, 사과, 염소고기, 조개, 계란, 곳감, 커피등은 피한다 * 아침 ; 콩나물죽, 대구포묶음, 우령이무침, 갓김치, 우유, 자두 점심 ; 기장밥, 콩나물두부찌게, 장어양념구이, 도라지나물, 열무김치, 배 저녁 ; 수수밥, 두부명란, 더덕양념구이, 깍두기 * 아침 ; 비빔국수, 토란국, 알타리김치, 두유, 살구주스 점심 ; 율무밥, 낙지전골, 김무생채, 느타리나물무침, 동치미, 귤 저녁 ; 콩밥, 감자북어국, 두부묶음, 열무김치 소음인의 식단: 곡류 : 찹쌀, 좁쌀, 차조, 감자등 소음인에 유익한 식품으로 교환한다 어패류 : 명태, 미꾸라지, 뱀장어, 뱀, 메기등 육류 : 닭, 개, 꿩, 염소, 양, 참새고기등 과일류 : 사과, 귤, 복숭아, 대추등 채소류 : 미나리, 파, 마늘, 후추, 시금치, 양배추, 생강, 고추, 당근, 양파, 감자, 쑥갓등 해로운 음식 : 메밀, 호도, 계란, 고구마, 녹두, 돼지고기, 밤, 배, 배추, 보리, 쇠고기, 수박, 오이, 참외, 팥등은 피한다. * 아침 ; 찰밥, 닭찜, 감자전, 쑥갓나물, 부추김치, 사과 점심 ; 감자밥, 메기매운탕, 명태조림, 미나리, 고들빼기김치, 사과주스 저녁 ; 좁쌀밥, 양배추감자국, 병어양념구이, 연근양념조림, 귤, 인삼차.

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Statistical Characteristics of East Sea Mesoscale Eddies Detected, Tracked, and Grouped Using Satellite Altimeter Data from 1993 to 2017 (인공위성 고도계 자료(1993-2017년)를 이용하여 탐지‧추적‧분류한 동해 중규모 소용돌이의 통계적 특성)

  • LEE, KYUNGJAE;NAM, SUNGHYUN;KIM, YOUNG-GYU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2019
  • Energetic mesoscale eddies in the East Sea (ES) associated with strong mesoscale variability impacting circulation and environments were statistically characterized by analyzing satellite altimeter data collected during 1993-2017 and in-situ data obtained from four cruises conducted between 2015 and 2017. A total of 1,008 mesoscale eddies were detected, tracked, and identified and then classified into 27 groups characterized by mean lifetime (L, day), amplitude (H, m), radius (R, km), intensity per unit area (EI, $cm^2/s^2/km^2$), ellipticity (e), eddy kinetic energy (EKE, TJ), available potential energy (APE, TJ), and direction of movement. The center, boundary, and amplitude of mesoscale eddies identified from satellite altimeter data were compared to those from the in-situ observational data for the four cases, yielding uncertainties in the center position of 2-10 km, boundary position of 10-20 km, and amplitude of 0.6-5.9 cm. The mean L, H, R, EI, e, EKE, and APE of the ES mesoscale eddies during the total period are $95{\pm}104$ days, $3.5{\pm}1.5cm$, $39{\pm}6km$, $0.023{\pm}0.017cm^2/s^2/km^2$, $0.72{\pm}0.07$, $23{\pm}21TJ$, and $588{\pm}250TJ$, respectively. The ES mesoscale eddies tend to move following the mean surface current rather than propagating westward. The southern groups (south of the subpolar front) have a longer L, larger H, R, and higher EKE, APE; and stronger EI than those of the northern groups and tend to move a longer distance following surface currents. There are exceptions to the average characteristics, such as the quasi-stationary groups (the Wonsan Warm, Wonsan Cold, Western Japan Basin Warm, and Northern Subpolar Frontal Cold Eddy groups) and short-lived groups with a relatively larger H, higher EKE, and APE and stronger EI (the Yamato Coastal Warm, Central Yamato Warm, and Eastern Japan Basin Coastal Warm eddy groups). Small eddies in the northern ES hardly resolved using the satellite altimetry data only, were not identified here and discussed with potential over-estimations of the mean L, H, R, EI, EKE, and APE. This study suggests that the ES mesoscale eddies 1) include newly identified groups such as the Hokkaido and the Yamato Rise Warm Eddies in addition to relatively well-known groups (e.g., the Ulleung Warm and the Dok Cold Eddies); 2) have a shorter L; smaller H, R, and lower EKE; and stronger EI and higher APE than those of the global ocean, and move following surface currents rather than propagating westward; and 3) show large spatial inhomogeneity among groups.

Comparative Study of Reliability Design Methods by Application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. 1. Stability of Amor Blocks (동해항 방파제를 대상으로 한 신뢰성 설계법의 비교 연구. 1 피복 블록의 안정성)

  • Kim Seung-Woo;Suh Kyung-Duck;Oh Young Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.188-201
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    • 2005
  • This is the first part of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. This paper, Part 1, is restricted to stability of armor blocks, while Part 2 deals with sliding of caissons. Reliability design methods have been developed fur breakwater designs since the mid-1980s. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed. In the Level 1 method, partial safety factors are used, which are predetermined depending on the allowable probability of failure. In the Level 2 method, the probability of failure is evaluated with the reliability index, which is calculated using the means and standard deviations of the load and resistance. The load and resistance are assumed to distribute normally. In the Level 3 method, the cumulative quantity of failure (e.g. cumulative damage of armor blocks) during the lifetime of the breakwater is calculated without assumptions of normal distribution of load and resistance. Each method calculates different design parameters, but they can be expressed in terms of probability of failure so that tile difference can be compared among the different methods. In this study, we applied the reliability design methods to the stability of armor blocks of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the target probability of failure while that for the reinforced breakwater is much lower than the target value, indicating that the breakwaters before damage and after reinforcement were under- and over-designed, respectively. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods were in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.

Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.