• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.515-521
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• 2011

In this paper we consider failure detection equipment that which find failures in repairable systems and enable repair operations. In practical situations, failure detection equipment may come across troubles that can cause the omissions in detecting system failures and have a serious effect on system reliability. We analyze this effect through the appropriate modeling of Markov processes.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.07a
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• pp.292-293
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• 2008

본 논문에서는 지역별로 다르게 나타날 수 있는 기상상태별 사고확률을 고려한 선로사고에 따른 전압안정도의 위반정도를 시험계통을 통해 계산해보고 그 결과를 전통적으로 사용되어져 오던 결정론적 방법과 비교해 봄을 통해 고장확률을 고려한 확률론적 안정도 평가의 영향을 살펴보았다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.1346-1352
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• 2009

Warranty cost of automobile parts varies depending on the parts failure rate in a warranty region of individual markets. Parts failure rate is significantly affected by usage-rate given that other stressors of individual markets are similar. Accordingly, warranty cost can be predicted by failure modeling which reflects usage-rate and using a stochastic process. In this paper, one-dimensional approach is used by applying accelerated failure time model on the assumption that the usage-rate is linear. Such model can explain changes in parts failure rate depending on the changes in usage-rate since it can be expressed as a function of usage-rate. Therefore, acquisition of usage-rate in a new market will automatically lead to estimate of failure rate even without warranty data and warranty cost of parts can be predicted through a renewal process in replacement cases. A case study using warranty data of two real markets is presented in the application part of this paper.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.651-656
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• 2014

Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.14-29
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• 1992

COMCAF, a computer code for the common-cause failure analysis, is developed to treat the common-cause failures in nuclear power plants. In the treatment of common-cause failures, the minimal cut sets of the system are obtained first without changing the fault-tree structure. The occurrence probabilities of the minimal cut sets are then calculated accounting for the common-cause failures among components in the same minimal cut set or in different minimal cut sets. The basic parameter model is used to model the common-cause failures between similar or identical components. For dissimilar components, the assumption of symmetry used in the basic parameter model is applied to the basic events affecting two or more components. The top event probability is evaluated using the inclusion-exclusion method. In addition to the common-cause failures of components in the same minimal cut sets, failures of components in the different minimal cut sets are also easily accounted for by this method. This study applied this common-cause failure analysis to the PWR auxiliary feedwater system. The results in the top event probability for the system are compared with those of no common-cause failures.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.18 no.8
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.49-49
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• 2004

고도화로 정밀해진 현대 과학기기에는 여러 가지 전자 팩키징 제품들이 쓰이고 있으나 이 제품들은 여러 가지 파손인자들의 영향 때문에 고유의 수명을 다하지 못하고 고장이 발생하게 된다. 전자부품 실장에 이용되는 솔더 조인트의 열화에 관련되는 열 피로와 이온 마이그레이션(Migration) 현상이 솔더 조인트의 신뢰성에 영향을 미치는 가장 중요한 인자로 알려져 있고 이러한 인자 이외에도 여러 가지 요인들이 복합적으로 작용하여 솔더의 접합부분에 피로파괴를 일으킨다.(중략)

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.635-642
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• 2014

In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1997.05a
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• pp.520-526
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• 1997

WASH-1400[1]이 발간된 이후 수행되어왔던 많은 확률론적 안전성 평가 결과를 보면 노심손상빈도를 나타내는 사고경위 중 많은 부분이 인간행위와 관련이 있는 것으로 밝혀져 확률론적 안전성 평가에서 인간행위를 다루는 것은 매우 중요하게 되었다. 그러나 인간신뢰도분석은 인간행위의 다변성(variability)으로 인해 인간행위의 모델링이 어렵고 데이타가 부족해 뚜렷한 방법론이 없어 분석시 분석자의 주관성이 개입될 여지가 있고 분석결과에는 많은 불확실성을 포함하고 있다. 노심손상빈도를 나타내는 사고경위에는 다수 인간행위가 있는 포함돼있는 단절집합을 얻게되는데 이러한 인간행위들 사이에는 기기의 공통원인 고장처럼 의존성이 존재한다. 이러한 의존성의 평가방법 또한 뚜렷하게 설정되어 있지 않은 형편이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 월성 2,3,4호기 확률론적 안전성 평가 모델에 고려되어있는 인간행위들의 인간오류 확률 값과 의존성 수준의 변화에 대한 민감도분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 초기사건 이후의 인간행위가 노심손상빈도 변화에 크게 기여하는 것이 밝혀졌고, 다수 인간행위들 사이의 의존성 수준변화가 노심손상빈도 변화에 큰 영향을 준다는 것이 밝혀졌다.

• Nuclear industry
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• v.7 no.8 s.54
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• pp.13-14
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• 1987

원자력플랜트에 대한 신중한 PSA분석은 많은 이득을 가져왔다. 이러한 것으로는 예기치 못했던 고장모드의 확인, 특히 비정상적인 상황하에서의 플랜트 운전상태의 충분한 파악, 플랜트설비나 운전절차의 변경이 가져오는 영향의 분석 등을 들 수 있다. 이 외에 PSA분석은 특정한 플랜트 문제를 논의하는데 있어 논리적인 기틀을 마련하는 것이다.