• Title/Summary/Keyword: 계절예측모델

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A Six-Layer SVAT Model for Energy and Mass Transfer and Its Application to a Spruce(Picea abies [L].Karst) Forest in Central Germany (독일가문비나무(Picea abies [L].Karst)림(林)에서의 Energy와 물질순환(物質循環)에 대(對)한 SLODSVAT(Six-Layer One-Dimensional Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer) 모델과 그 적용(適用))

  • Oltchev, A.;Constantin, J.;Gravenhorst, G.;Ibrom, A.;Joo, Yeong-Teuk;Kim, Young-Chai
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.85 no.2
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    • pp.210-224
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    • 1996
  • The SLODSVAT consists of interrelated submodels that simulate : the transfer of radiation, water vapour, sensible heat, carbon dioxide and momentum in two canopy layers determined by environmental conditions and ecophysiological properties of the vegetation ; uptake and storage of water in the "root-stem-leaf" system of plants ; interception of rainfall by the canopy layers and infiltration and storage of rain water in the four soil layers. A comparison of the results of modeling experiments and field micro-climatic observations in a spruce forest(Picea abies [L].Karst) in the Soiling hills(Germany) shows, that the SLODSVAT can describe and simulate the short-term(diurnal) as well as the long-term(seasonal) variability of water vapour and sensible heat fluxes adequately to natural processes under different environmental conditions. It proves that it is possible to estimate and predict the transpiration and evapotranspiration rates for spruce forest ecosystems on the patch and landscape scales for one vegetation period, if certain meteorological, botanical and hydrological information for the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer, the canopy and the soil are available.

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Monitoring Ground-level SO2 Concentrations Based on a Stacking Ensemble Approach Using Satellite Data and Numerical Models (위성 자료와 수치모델 자료를 활용한 스태킹 앙상블 기반 SO2 지상농도 추정)

  • Choi, Hyunyoung;Kang, Yoojin;Im, Jungho;Shin, Minso;Park, Seohui;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1053-1066
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    • 2020
  • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is primarily released through industrial, residential, and transportation activities, and creates secondary air pollutants through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Long-term exposure to SO2 can result in a negative effect on the human body causing respiratory or cardiovascular disease, which makes the effective and continuous monitoring of SO2 crucial. In South Korea, SO2 monitoring at ground stations has been performed, but this does not provide spatially continuous information of SO2 concentrations. Thus, this research estimated spatially continuous ground-level SO2 concentrations at 1 km resolution over South Korea through the synergistic use of satellite data and numerical models. A stacking ensemble approach, fusing multiple machine learning algorithms at two levels (i.e., base and meta), was adopted for ground-level SO2 estimation using data from January 2015 to April 2019. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting were used as based models and multiple linear regression was adopted for the meta-model. The cross-validation results showed that the meta-model produced the improved performance by 25% compared to the base models, resulting in the correlation coefficient of 0.48 and root-mean-square-error of 0.0032 ppm. In addition, the temporal transferability of the approach was evaluated for one-year data which were not used in the model development. The spatial distribution of ground-level SO2 concentrations based on the proposed model agreed with the general seasonality of SO2 and the temporal patterns of emission sources.

Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin (기후변화 시나리오하의 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Choi, Chul Uong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.

A Simulation of Wave Induced Current Around the Jeju New Harbor (제주외항 건설에 따른 주변 해역의 해빈류 변화 예측)

  • Kwak, Moon-Su;Pyun, Chong-Kun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.4 no.3 s.14
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • In this study, the change of the current in the coastal zone before and after the construction of Jeju new harbor was predicted by using the numerical model, which uses Hardy-Cross method. The numerical model was carried out for the present state, before the construction, and the state after the construction, and for the wave direction the NNW direction for winter and NE direction for summer were tested so that the seasonal change may be considered. The computation result shows that a large amount of the wave induced current was occurred when there were high waves coming in from NNW direction before and after the construction. Also, before the construction a longshore current occurred moving from the west to the east at the new harbor construction site so that it formed a rip current in the Hwabuk-dong front sea. And also, after the construction, the tip current produced changed into nearshore circulating current and a small circulating current appeared at the harbor entrance. On the other hand, at Samyang 4each, which is 3.0km away from the new harbor in the NE direction, shows that there was a longshore current occurred from the west to the east, which is in the opposite direction the new harbor, and the effect on the new harbor by sediment transport at Samyang beach is thought to be very small.

Simulation of Turbidity Flow in the Andon-Imha Linked Reservoir System (안동-임하호 연결 시스템의 탁수유동 모의)

  • Park, Hyung Seok;Chung, Se Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.46-46
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    • 2015
  • 강우가 지역별 계절별로 편중되어 있는 우리나라는 수자원의 안정적인 확보와 이용을 위해 다양한 형태의 댐을 건설하여 운영하고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 댐건설을 통해 형성된 저수지들은 탁수 장기화 및 녹조 발생 등의 환경, 생태적인 문제를 겪고 있으며, 그에 따른 사회적 우려로 인해 신규댐 건설을 통한 수자원확보는 더 이상 어려운 실정이다. 이러한 문제에 대응하기 위한 대안으로 기존 댐 저수지들(안동호-임하호)의 구조적 연계운영방안이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 2차원 CE-QUAL-W2모형을 활용하여 안동호와 임하호의 구조적 연결에 따른 탁수의 이동과 각 저수지 내에서의 유동 변화를 해석하는데 있다. 저수지 연계 시나리오는 EL. 138 m 위치에 길이 2 km, 직경 5.5 m 의 콘크리트관(마찰계수 0.05)이 안동호 좌안인 임동면 마리와 임하호 우안 망천리를 연결하는 것으로 가정하였다. 모델의 보정은 실측자료가 풍부한 2006년도 수문사상을 대상으로, 개별 저수지에 대해 수행하였고, 탁수 유동 시나리오 해석은 임하호에 심각한 탁수장기화 문제가 발생했던 2002년을 대상으로 댐 연계 탁수모의를 수행하였다. 안동호와 임하호의 댐 앞에서 모의값과 실측값을 오차를 분석한 결과 탁수예측오차는 AME 0.5~24 mg/L, RMSE 0.7~30.2mg/L의 범위로 비교적 실측값을 잘 반영한 것으로 나타났다. 임하댐의 경우 탁수층의 위치와 두께, 그리고 최고 탁도값을 적절히 재현 하였지만, 안동댐은 최고 탁도값 예측에서 다소 오차가 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 안동호와 임하호 단독 운영시와 연계 운영시의 탁수변화 파악을 위해 초기 홍수사상이 발생한 8월 이후부터 저수지내의 TSS농도 분포를 비교하였다. 안동호의 경우 댐앞지점의 탁수분포는 수온성층구조에 영향을 받아, 단독 운영시(EL. 130 m)보다 연계운영시(EL. 140 m)에 탁수의 중심이 높은 위치에 형성되었다. 단독 운영시 10월 이후에 전도현상으로 인해 침강되지 않은 잔류 탁수층이 저수지 하부로 확산되었지만, 연계 운영시에는 재부상 되어 상층으로 확산되는 것으로 모의되었다. 또한 연계운영시 유량이동으로 인해 안동호의 탁수 댐앞 도달시간이 짧아지는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 임하호는 연계 운영시 안동댐으로 유출이 생기면서 중층에서 탁수량이 저감되는 것으로 모의되었다. 저수지 내 탁수량 분석을 위해 SS 15 mg/L 이상의 잔류 탁수량을 분석한 결과, 연계운영시 안동호의 평균 잔류탁수량 비율은 11.8% 증가, 임하호의 경우 11.7% 감소하였다. 또한, 탁수의 댐하류 방류일수도 SS 15 mg/L 기준 임하호 9일 저감, 안동호는 70일 증가하여 임하호의 탁수가 안동호의 탁수 장기화에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다.

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Modeling the Effects of Curtain Weir on the Control of Algal Bloom in Daecheong Reservoir (대청호 녹조제어를 위한 수류 차단막 설치효과 수치모의)

  • Lee, Heung-Soo;Chung, Se-Woong;Jeong, Hee-Young;Min, Byeong-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.302-307
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    • 2009
  • 물리적인 조류제어 기술에 해당하는 수류 차단막(이후 차단막)은 유입하천의 수류를 차단 또는 우회시켜 영양염류가 저수지의 유광층으로 공급되는 것을 차단하고 본류 수역으로의 조류 확산을 방지하는 기능이 있어 일본에서는 저수지 녹조제어 대책으로 자주 활용된 바 있다. 그러나 이러한 차단막은 국내 저수지와 같이 홍수시 유입 유속이 크고 수위변동이 심한 환경에서는 설치효과가 검증되지 않아 현장적용에 앞서 수치모의를 통한 효과 검증이 선행되어야 하며, 최적 규모와 위치 선정도 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 수위변동이 심한 국내 저수지 특성을 고려하여 차단막이 수위변화에 따라 상하로 이동할 수 있도록 기존 CE-QUAL-W2(이후W2) 모델의 알고리즘을 수정하고, 대청호에서 다양한 수리 수문조건에서 차단막의 기작과 효과를 예측하기 위해 가뭄년(2001년)과 평수년(2004, 2006년)을 대상으로 각각 모델을 적용하였다. 차단막 설치 예정지점은 소옥천 하류(7 m 깊이)와 댐으로부터 각각 14.9 km, 27.4 km 상류에 위치한 회남대교 아래 지점(10 m 깊이)과 대정리(10 m 깊이)로 가정하고, 모의 시나리오는 차단막을 설치하지 않은 경우(S-1), 소옥천 하류에 단독으로 설치한 경우(S-2), 소옥천과 대정리에 설치한 경우(S-3), 모든 지점에 설치한 경우(S-4)를 비교하였다. 차단막 설치에 따른 수문년 및 계절별 수질개선 효과(S-1에 대한 S-4 농도 저감 비)를 비교한 결과, 대청호에서 녹조문제가 가장 심각했던 2001년 6월$^{\sim}$8월 기간 동안 차단막은 봄-여름에 걸쳐 모든 비교 지점(회남, 댐, 추동, 문의수역)에서 Chl-a 농도를 최저(문의수역) 30%에서 최고(회남수역) 70% 정도 저감하는 효과를나타냈다. 평수년인 2004년과 2006년에는 강우사상에 따라 차단막 설치에 따른 Chl-a의 농도 저감 효과가 지점별로 다르게 나타났으며, 큰 강우사상이 6월, 7월, 8월에 걸쳐 골고루 발생한 2004년에 비해 7월 한 달 동안 집중된 2006년에 설치효과가 크게 나타났다. 수역별로 차단막의 설치효과를 비교해 보면, 유입수의 영향을 직접 받는 회남수역과 추동수역이 댐 앞과 문의수역에 비해 차단막 설치에 따른 Chl-a 농도의 저감 효과가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 그러나, 큰 홍수가 유입할 때 차단막 상류부에 집적된 조류의 일부가 수류의 포획(Entrainment) 기작에 의해 저수지 내부로 유입되는 것으로 확인되어 차단막 효과를 극대화하기 위해서는 홍수 전 차단막 상류부에 집적된 조류의 처리대책이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Simulations of the Effect of Flow Control and Phosphate Loading on the Reduction of Algae Biomass in Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (유량 조절과 인 부하 변동에 따른 강정고령보 조류저감 효과 수치 모의)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Kim, Sung-Jin;Park, Hyung-Seok;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to validate the EFDC model for the weir pool of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of flow control and phosphate loading reduction on the water quality and algae biomass by group (Diatom, Green, Cyanobacteria). As a result of model validation using 2018 experimental data,the time series of water level and vertical distribution of water temperature, DO, organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus time series were properly simulated. Seasonal fluctuations of algae biomass by group were adequately reproduced, but the deviations between measured and simulated values were significant in some periods. As a result of scenario simulations to control the water level and flow rate, the thermal stratification was resolved as the water level was lowered and the flow rate increased. The flow velocity at which the water temperature stratification was resolved was about 0.1 m/s, which is consistent with the previous study results of Baekje Weir in Geum River. Simulations of the 2Q flow scenario showed that Chl-a decreased by 8.7% and the cell density of diatom and green algae declined. The cell density of cyanobacteria increased, however, because the high concentrations of cyanobacteria in the upstream boundary conditions directly affected downstream due to increased flow velocity. In the scenario simulation of reducing the influent phosphate load concentration (average 0.056 mg/L) to 50%, Chl-a decreased by 13.6%.The results suggest that the upstream algae concentration and phosphorus load reduction should be considered simultaneously with hydraulic control to prevent algal overgrowth of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir.

Urban Change Detection for High-resolution Satellite Images Using U-Net Based on SPADE (SPADE 기반 U-Net을 이용한 고해상도 위성영상에서의 도시 변화탐지)

  • Song, Changwoo;Wahyu, Wiratama;Jung, Jihun;Hong, Seongjae;Kim, Daehee;Kang, Joohyung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.6_2
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    • pp.1579-1590
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, spatially-adaptive denormalization (SPADE) based U-Net is proposed to detect changes by using high-resolution satellite images. The proposed network is to preserve spatial information using SPADE. Change detection methods using high-resolution satellite images can be used to resolve various urban problems such as city planning and forecasting. For using pixel-based change detection, which is a conventional method such as Iteratively Reweighted-Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD), unchanged areas will be detected as changing areas because changes in pixels are sensitive to the state of the environment such as seasonal changes between images. Therefore, in this paper, to precisely detect the changes of the objects that consist of the city in time-series satellite images, the semantic spatial objects that consist of the city are defined, extracted through deep learning based image segmentation, and then analyzed the changes between areas to carry out change detection. The semantic objects for analyzing changes were defined as six classes: building, road, farmland, vinyl house, forest area, and waterside area. Each network model learned with KOMPSAT-3A satellite images performs a change detection for the time-series KOMPSAT-3 satellite images. For objective assessments for change detection, we use F1-score, kappa. We found that the proposed method gives a better performance compared to U-Net and UNet++ by achieving an average F1-score of 0.77, kappa of 77.29.

A Case Study on Predicting and Analyzing Inflow Sources of Underground Water in a Limestone Mine (석회석 광산 갱내수 유입원 예측분석 사례연구)

  • Minkyu Lee;Sunghyun Park;Hwicheol Ko;Yongsik Jeong;Seon-hee Heo
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.388-398
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    • 2023
  • The changes in groundwater flow due to mining development act as a contributing factor to major issues such as ground subsidence, strength reduction and collapse. For the sustainable mining development, measures for dealing with fluctuations in seasonal underground water inflow, power losses, pump damage, and unexpected increases in inflow must be put in place. In this study, the aim is to identify the causes of underground seepage through the examination of hydrological connectivity between the study area and nearby limestone mine. A tracer tes for assessing subsurface connectivity has been planned. A variety of tracers, such as dyes and ions, were applied in lab test to select the optimal tracer material, and a hydrological model of the study area was implemented through field test. Finally, the hydrological connectivity between the external stream and underground water in the mine was analyzed.

Prediction of Acer pictum subsp. mono Distribution using Bioclimatic Predictor Based on SSP Scenario Detailed Data (SSP 시나리오 상세화 자료 기반 생태기후지수를 활용한 고로쇠나무 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Chaeyoung;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Jina;Song, Wonkyong
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.