• Title/Summary/Keyword: 계량모델

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Reflection and perspective of the geomorphology in Korea (한국 지형학의 50년 회고와 전망)

  • ;Oh, Kyoung-Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.106-127
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    • 1996
  • In Korea, modern geomorphology has developed as one of main subjects in geography, such as in Europe. Geomorphology is one of the most advanced specialties in the geography dicipline, since foundation of Korean Geographical Society in 1945. Untill 1960's study, first generation of the Korean geomorphologists trained the younger ones, together with energetic research activities. Their great works in education and research established the base of ulterier development of the geomorphology in Korea. Since 1970s, research manpower and quality has incresed rapidly, partly due to the various international activities and cooperations of Korean geomorphologists. Owing to above development, Korean geomorphologist was able to found "The Geomorphological Association of Korea" in 1990 and publish "Journal of GAK", since 1994. Furthermore, geomorphologists are playing important roles in interdisciplinary academic societies, such as "The Korean Quaternary Assocition". Still 1960s, our research had focused on the identification and interpretation of erosional surfaces in Korea Peninsular. Of course, W.M. Davis's "Geographical Cycle Theory" and L.C. King's "Pedimentation Theory" had a great influence on the Koerans' works. After 1970s, the study of erosional surface played the important role in setting up the morphoclimatic viewpoint and methodology. Research scope tend to be notably broad and various than it was untill 1960's. Disposotion of the scientific methods and techniques become more and more apparent. These trends of research has settled precise descreption and interpretation of actual landforms, based on the careful field works, scientific measuring, and analisis, rather than methodology focused on the particular master theories. Recent geomorphological researches show the scope from climatic geomorphology and Quaternary geomorphology to granite and limestone weathering, pedo-geomorphogenic environment and periglacial landforms, focused on the small-to-medium scales. And then there have been new trying to interprete erosional surfaces such as hillslopes and terraces. Also, studies of coastal and plain landforms have been successfully developed. Recent new trends show the quantitative and analytic modelling using field measurement and laboratory work, and study on the human impacts on the natural landforms.y on the human impacts on the natural landforms.

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The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.