• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경험적 추정식

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Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea: II. Freezing Risk Index Based on Dormancy Depth as a Proxy for Physiological Tolerance to Freezing Temperature (겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 '장호원황도' 품종의 결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석: II. 휴면심도로 표현한 생리적 내동성에 근거한 동해위험지수)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Yun, Jin-I.;Hwang, Kyu-Hong;Kim, Jung-Bae;Yoon, Ik-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2009
  • In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

Study on the Characteristic Analysis of Evapotranspiration (증발산량 측정 현황 및 특성 분석)

  • Lee, JungHoon;Park, YongHee;Lee, YeonKil;Jung, SungWon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.528-528
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    • 2015
  • 수문 순환 및 물 수지에 관한 연구는 강수량, 지표유출량, 지하수, 토양수분 및 증발산량에 대한 정량화가 이루어질 때 실제적으로 규명될 수 있다. 그러나, 수문 순환 및 물수지 평가에 중요한 부분을 차지하는 증발산량의 경우 관측값보다 단순한 가정이나 경험식에 의한 추정값을 사용하고 있어 그 자료의 신뢰성에 대해서도 꾸준히 문제가 제기되어 왔다. 따라서, 수문 순환 및 물수지의 정량적인 분석을 위해서는 수문 순환 과정에서 상당부분을 차지하는 증발산량의 측정(실측)이 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구는 국토교통부의 기초수문자료 구축사업의 일환으로 수행되고 있으며, 에디공분산 기술을 사용하여 증발산량을 직접 관측하고 있다. 관측지점은 한반도의 약 70%를 차지하는 산림지 중 대표적 식생 기능 형태인 혼효림으로 구성된 지점(설마천 관측지, 2007년 8월부터)과, 인위적인 관개가 이루어지는 논경지(청미천 관측지, 2008년 8월부터)에서의 증발산량 측정을 수행하였다. 그 결과 두 지점에서 증발산량의 계절 및 경년 변동 특성을 파악 할 수 있었다. 혼효림(설마천 관측지)에서 산정된 증발산량은 2008년 471.7mm, 2009년 408.4mm, 2010년 489.4mm, 2011년 387.0mm, 2012년 323.3mm, 2013년 293.3mm, 2014년 360.9mm이고, 강수량 대비 증발산량은 18.9%~56.2%를 보였다. 논경지(청미천 관측지)에서 산정된 증발산량은 2009년 571.8mm, 2010년 608.5mm, 2011년 523.9mm, 2012년 509.8mm, 2013년 467.9mm 2014년 533.9mm이고, 강수량 대비 증발산량은 34.7%~59.3%를 보였다. 비율의 최대값은 모두 2014년에 발생한 것으로 적은 강수량에 의한 것이고, 평균 증발산량 비율은 산림지인 설마천 관측소보다 논경지인 청미천 관측소가 평균 약 14%정도 높게 나타났다.

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Investigation of the Characteristic Velocity of Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (지형형태학적 순간단위도의 특성속도에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Sang-Dan;Yu, Cheol-Sang;Yun, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.315-330
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    • 2000
  • The GIUH (Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph) is to be applied to the ungauged or insufficiently gauged basins. For tIris purpose, an accurate estimation of the charactenstlc velocity is one very important part, but any proper method for this has not been developed yet. In case that we have enough rainfall and runoff clata, the estimation of the characteristic velocity may be an easy job, but it is out of the purpose of the GIUH. Remindmg that the purpose of GIUH the characterisbc veloclty should be estimated based on the geomorpholog1c analysis and also be snnple for easy apphcation. In tIris research analysis cmd application of the GruH was given to several sub-basins in Wi-stream river basin, Gono, Donggok and Hyoryung. After deriving the characteristic velocity througn a optimizatlOn process with real data, it is compared w1th several velOCIties der1ved from geOlnoI1Jhoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph theory and several other concentration time formulae. The estimated charactenstic velocities using Kerby, Kim, KInematic Wave, and Brasby- Williams formulae found to g1ve the appropriate results. Hmvever, as the Kerby, and the Kinematic Wave require user's decision of the IvIanning's n value, the K1m and the Braby-Williams seem to be more applicable and recommended as characteristic velocity formula.

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A Study for cost of road traffic accident taken offender's PTSD in consideration (교통사고 가해자의 외상 후 스트레스 장애를 고려한 도로교통사고 비용 연구)

  • Jang, Seok-Yong;Jeong, Heon-Yeong;Go, Sang-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2010
  • The main objective of this study is to consider the necessity of introducing owner expenses in estimating the cost of traffic accidents, as is done in some advanced countries. It is known as "owner cost" in the U.S, "enterprise project price" in Japan, and "human cost" in the U.K. To achieve this, the seriousness and present state of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) of traffic accident offenders, which is generally not observed when traffic accidents occur, are evaluated; countermeasures reflecting personal characteristics are prepared according to degree of affliction. The results could be summarized as follows. First, the present condition and seriousness of PTSD from traffic accidents that has been estimated only within the accidents offenders are evaluated through a survey. Second, a distinction analysis model is developed. 'Insomnia caused by accidents' and 'mental daunting in accident situations or similar ones during driving' are chosen as the variables of the discriminant. Third, as a result of the construction of an Ordered Probit Model to comprehend the seriousness of PTSD, the variables turns out in the order of 'seriousness of the most damaged victim, 'nightmare about the accident', 'insomnia experience', 'mental daunting during driving', 'gender', and 'major driving area'. Finally, the cures reflecting characteristics of gender and region are suggested, which are preferred for degree of seriousness of PTSD. The analysis shows that the method to minimize the damage, such as decline of work efficiency, by moving ahead the rehabilitation of the offenders would be suggested and this could minimize the direct and indirect damages that could happen to business owners for whom the drivers work.

Study on the effective parameters and a prediction model of the shield TBM performance (쉴드 TBM 굴진 주요 영향인자분석 및 굴진율 예측모델 제시)

  • Jo, Seon-Ah;Kim, Kyoung-Yul;Ryu, Hee-Hwan;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.347-362
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    • 2019
  • Underground excavation using TBM machines has been increasing to reduce complaints caused by noise, vibration, and traffic congestion resulted from the urban underground construction in Korea. However, TBM excavation design and construction still need improvement because those are based on standards of the technologically advanced countries (e.g., Japan, Germany) that do not consider geological environment in Korea at all. Above all, although TBM performance is a main factor determining the TBM machine type, duration and cost of the construction, it is estimated by only using UCS (uniaxial compressive strength) as the ground parameters and it often does not match the actual field conditions. This study was carried out as part of efforts to predict penetration rate suitable for Korean ground conditions. The effective parameters were defined through the correlation analysis between the penetration rate and the geotechnical parameters or TBM performance parameters. The effective parameters were then used as variables of the multiple regression analysis to derive a regression model for predicting TBM penetration rate. As a result, the regression model was estimated by UCS and joint spacing and showed a good agreement with field penetration rate measured during TBM excavation. However, when this model was applied to another site in Korea, the prediction accuracy was slightly reduced. Therefore, in order to overcome the limitation of the regression model, further studies are required to obtain a generalized prediction model which is not restricted by the field conditions.

Applicability Evaluation to Grid-based Rainfall-Runoff-Sediment Model for Sediment Discharge Estimation (격자기반 강우-유출-유사 모형의 유사량 산정에 관한 적용성 평가)

  • Choi, Hyun Gu;Park, Jun Hyung;Han, Kun Yeun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.132-143
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    • 2017
  • It is essential to obtain periodic sediment discharge data in a river in order to minimize problems that may arise from the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment. However, it is difficult to estimate sediment discharge by the sediment discharge measurement plan in Korea at present, and empirical fomulas or numerical models are used to replace them. This paper has applied the K-DRUM model, a grid-based rainfall-runoff-sediment model, to estimate sediment discharge and ensure the continuity of the data in the watershed. Discharge and sediment load in 17 watersheds were estimated and the applicability of the model was analyzed through comparisons with measured data. For quantitative evaluation, NSE, PBIAS and RSR items were used, and discharge results reflected the tendency of rainfall and showed high statistical value. In case of sediment discharge, the soil erosion process of the watershed is physically well reflected. When the calibration was performed using the measure data, the applicability seems to be excellent in estimating the continuous sediment discharge data in the real watershed.

Computational Analysis on the Noise Characteristics of Ship Large Duct (선박용 대형 덕트의 소음 특성 전산해석 연구)

  • Song, Jee-Hun;Hong, Suk-Yoon;Lee, Yi-Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Wung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2015
  • Noise prediction for HVAC(Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems are normally performed by empirical method suggested by NEBB(National Environmental Balancing Bureau, 1994). However, the method is not suitable for large ducts in ships. In this paper, computational analysis methods are used to develop a noise prediction method for the large ducts in ships. To develop regression formula of attenuation of sound pressure level in large ducts, Boundary Element Method(BEM) is used. BEM and Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) are applied to the analysis of flow-induced noise in ducts with stiffeners inside. Loud noise above 100 dB can be generated in some cases. Breakout noises of large ducts are also analyzed by using BEM and Finite Element Method(FEM). The acoustic pressure level shows about 10-15dB difference between inside and outside of the duct. Utilizing the results of this study, it is expected that shipyard planners can predict noise of the HVAC system for ships.

A study on the Sediment Specific Properties of the Basin of Im-Jin River (임진강 유역의 유사특성에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Ik;Park, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Eun-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1670-1676
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구는 임진강 유역을 대상유역으로 대표지점을 선정하고 각 지점의 하상변동 예측, 저수지 퇴사량 추정, 유사 유출량 추정, 하상 상승 및 유수소통단면 축소에 따른 홍수범람규모의 증대, 저수지 용량 감소 및 상수원 취수구 매몰 등의 원인인 유사퇴적에 대한 신뢰성 있는 자료를 실측하여 제시하고자 한다. 실측된 유사량의 특성을 알아보고자 각 대표지점 별로 동일한 유량 시 유사량을 비교하여 유사량과 각 지형 인자들과의 상관관계를 분석함으로써 임진강 유역의 특성이 반영된 유사량 산정에 관한 기초이용 자료로 활용 제시하여 수자원 개발 및 관리에 보다 효율적으로 적용하는데 목적이 있다. 임진강 유역의 대표지점으로는 적성, 군남, 전곡지점을 선정하였고, 임진강 유역 대표지점의 특성으로는 적성지점(유역면적:$6,800.2km^2$, 유로연장:224.5km), 군남지점(유역면적:$4,228.5km^2$, 유로연장:204.9km), 전곡지점(유역면적:$2,152.9km^2$, 유로연장:133.0km)이다. 총유사량의 산정은 부유사와 소류사의 양을 더하여 산정하는 것이 가장 이상적이나 소류사의 채취가 어렵고 정확도가 떨어지기 때문에 채취한 부유사량에 수정 아인쉬타인 방법 등을 이용하여 구한 소류사를 더해 총유사량을 추정하는 것이 일반적이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 임진강 유역에서는 실측한 부유사량에 수정 아인쉬타인 방법으로 추정한 소류사량을 더한 총유사량을 구하여 분석하였고, 기타 다른 유사량산정 공식들과 비교 분석하여 보았다. 부유사 농도분석 방법으로는 저농도(10,000ppm)인 시료에 적합한 여과법을 이용하여 분석하였으며, 유사 입경분포 분석방법으로는 BW관 방법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 현재까지 국내 외적으로 하천 유사량 산정과 관련된 많은 경험식들이 제시되고 있다. 하지만, 외국의 충적하천에 기초하여 개발되어진 유사량 공식들을 우리나라 하천에 무분별하게 적용하는 것은 위험스러우며, 유사량 산정 결과의 신뢰성을 높이기 위해서는 무엇보다 우리나라 하천의 지형, 수리, 수문학적 요소들이 유사 특성에 미치는 영향을 알아야 한다. 그러므로, 본 연구에서는 실측을 통한 유사량 값을 하천의 지형, 수리, 수문학적 요소들과 비교 분석하여우리나라 하천에 맞는 유사특성을 알아보고, 기타 총유사량산정 공식을 이용하여 실측한 유사량과 비교 분석하고자 한다.

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Estimation of Frequency of Storm Surge Heights on the West and South Coasts of Korea Using Synthesized Typhoons (확률론적 합성태풍을 이용한 서남해안 빈도 해일고 산정)

  • Kim, HyeonJeong;Suh, SeungWon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.241-252
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    • 2019
  • To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

Clinical Diagnosis and Its Medical Managements from Patients with Gastrointestinal Diseases (위장관 질환자의 임상진단과 치료방법)

  • 김재웅
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 1997
  • Endoscopic diagnosis and medical management from K43 and C45 patients, whose sex, occupation, character and life patterns are quite different each other, were discussed. The K43 was patient with erosive gastritis, which may caused by maldietary habits and life stresses. Although the effective drugs such as H2-receptor antagonists with atacids, H+/K+-pump inhibitors, prokinetics, colloidal bismuth, and sucralfates, were administrated for long time, symptomatic relief of abdominal pain was not improved. The tests of clinical phathology and abdominal sonogram were normal, visceral hypersensitivity was appeared from barostat test of stomach. However C45 had taken headache during every day life, and endoscopically confirmed as a gastric·duodenal ulcer patiant, which may caused by chronic use of NSAIDs. The her ulceric symptoms were suppressed from active stage to healing stage by using combination therapy for H. pylori with traditional antipeptic ulcer drugs, where as amitriptyline was administrated to the K43 but not effective. Nonulcer dyspepsia and irritable bowel syndrome is pooly defined, and affect about 15% of the population annually in U. S. A. but don't seek medical care. Author would like to point out that statistics for visceral pains are absent in Korea.

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