• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경제적 불확실성

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Uncertainty Cases in Economic Evaluation of Back-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle (후행 핵연료주기 경제성 평가의 불확실성 사례)

  • Kim, Hyung-Joon;Cho, Chun-Hyung;Lee, Kyung-Ku
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.141-145
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    • 2008
  • Due to the uncertainties resulting from cost projection, evaluation over long term period, and adequacy of applied discount rate, the economic assessment for back-end fuel cycle is different from each organizations or individuals. In this paper, the features and limitations of some noticeable economic evaluations were investigated and analysed to contribute for the public participation and back-end fuel cycle policy related researches. As a result of analysis, we found that the reprocess and recycling is more economical than direct disposal option, but the result includes high uncertainty that depends on the input parameters.

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The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (금융시장 불확실성의 효과: 금융시장 위기 기간 중 국면전환이 발생하였는가?)

  • Kim, Seewon
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.70-99
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    • 2019
  • Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

Analysis of the Manufacturing Firms' R&D Strategy According to Global Political and Economic Uncertainty (글로벌 정치 경제적 불확실성에 따른 제조 기업의 R&D 전략 분석)

  • Keontaek Oh;EuiBeom Jeong
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the effects of manufacturing firms' R&D investment on sales according to global political economic uncertainty. The variables in this research include the firm's R&D investment, sales, which serves as an indicator of the firm's performance, and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) index, which reflects situations of global political economic uncertainty. Panel data analysis is conducted by using a total of 96 quarters of data spanning 24 years from 2000 to 2023 based on manufacturing firms in the Wharton Research Data Services' Compustat Database. We study the impact of firm's R&D investment on sales by considering the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which was relatively underestimated in previous research, as moderating variable, and present a new direction for research by analyzing the time lag effect. We suggest effective R&D investment strategy for firms.

A Study on Regulatory Focus and Risk Taking Affecting Entrepreneurial Motivation Under Uncertainty (불확실성하에서 창업동기에 영향을 미치는 조절초점과 위험감수성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong Young;Jeon, Byung Hoon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2021
  • This study is a study on the regulatory focus and entrepreneurship that affect entrepreneurial motivation under uncertainty. In the empirical analysis results between the prevention focus, risk taking, and economic entrepreneurial motive, which were not observed in previous studies in Korea, this study tried to supplementally verify the previous studies by focusing on the limitations of the sample suggested as limitations. In particular, under a special external environment where uncertainty is deepening due to COVID-19 and the economic situation is being severely hit, we regressively analyze regulatory focus and risk taking, which are innate personal characteristics that can affect entrepreneurial motives. The mediating effect of risk taking was demonstrated. As a result of the empirical results, it was found that the prevention focus, risk taking, and economic entrepreneurial motivation had a significant effect, and it was shown that risk taking had a mediating effect between the prevention focus and the economic entrepreneurial motivation. This result is meaningful as a result not observed in previous studies, and it is judged that the control focus, which is an individual characteristic with a large innate tendency, interacts with the risk taking of the acquired tendency to influence the motivation to start a business. The results of this study can be of practical help by understanding and concentrating on regulatory focus and risk taking when conducting entrepreneurship or entrepreneurship education programs to entrepreneurs who dream of or want to start a business amid the growing uncertainty of the external environment. On the other hand, it is necessary to confirm whether these results, which are different from previous studies, are the effect of sample diversity or the external environment such as Corona 19, and re-verification through additional research is needed in the future.

해운이슈: 삼성경제연(硏), 2011년 세계경제 안정적인 성장세 기대 -중동사태, 동일본 대지진 등 불확실성 점차 증대

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
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    • s.81
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2011
  • 2011년 1분기에는 예기치 못한 일본 대지진과 중동사태 등으로 세계경제는 큰 타격을 입었으며 그로 인해 신재생 에너지 개발과 에너지 효율적인 경제구조 확립, 부품 소재 산업의 경쟁력 강화와 공급처 다변화의 중요성이 대두되었다. 이에 따라 한국 경제는 그 전략을 점진적으로 세워야 한다는 지적이 나왔다. 그러므로 우리는 이 시점에서 세계경제를 분석하고 한국 경제의 중장기적인 계획을 세워 보아야 할 필요가 있다. 다음은 삼성경제연구소에서 발표한 "2011년 세계경제 및 한국경제 전망"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

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Analysis of dependence structure between international freight rate index and U.S. and China trade uncertainty (국제 해운 운임지수와 미국과 중국의 무역 불확실성 사이의 의존성 구조 분석)

  • Kim, Bu-Kwon;Kim, Dong-Yoon;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2020
  • Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

Effects of Ethical Ideologies on the Korean Consumers' Perceptions and Purchase Intentions of Fashion Counterfeits (소비자의 윤리의식이 패션복제품에 대한 인식 및 구매의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Mi-Young;Johnson, Kim K.P.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1793-1802
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    • 2007
  • This study examined the relationship between consumers' ethical ideologies and consumers' perceptions of fashion counterfeits. Forsyth's Ethics Position Questionnaire(EPQ) measuring consumers' ethical ideologies-- idealism and relativism -- was used. College students enrolled at a large university in a metropolitan area participated(N=314). There were no significant differences between counterfeit purchasers and non-purchasers on their ethical ideologies, while there were significant differences between these two groups on their perceptions toward two of the perceptions toward counterfeit factors: economic and psychological uncertainty. Idealism was not significantly related to participants' perceptions toward fashion counterfeit, while relativism was positively related only to participants' perceptions concerning the return-related uncertainty of fashion counterfeits. The results of a multiple regression revealed that consumers' economic, psychological, and return-related uncertainty were significant predictors of intent to buy counterfeit goods.

A Strategic Policy for the Beach Reservation utilizing Steel Type Breakwater (철재형 이안제를 활용한 전략적 해안 보전 정책)

  • Gwon, Hyeok-Min;Lee, Jeong-Ryeol;Yun, Gang-Hun
    • Water for future
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2014
  • 해안의 침식저감은 해안보전 정책 중에서 가장 중요한 목표가 되고 있다. 하지만, 침식을 야기하는 요인의 다양성과 결과예측의 어려움 등으로 인하여 기존공법의 유효성에 많은 의문이 있다. 이러한 대응효과의 불확실성을 극복하는 하나의 방법으로서 해안모래의 사정에 따라 그때그때 조치하는 유연한 대응을 생각할 수 있는데 이러한 관리형 대응을 실현하기 위해서는 만족할 만한 핵심요소 기술이 필요하다. 최근 들어 구조형식이 간단하면서 경제적인 투과성 철재형 이안제가 개발되었다. 본 해안침식저감용 기술은 파랑제어가 수평판으로 가능하고 착탈식이며 이동이 간단하다. 이러한 특징을 활용하면 해안의 사정에 따라 관리할 수 있는 전략적 해안보전이 가능해 질 수 있다. 특히 본 구조물은 평균해수면 상승에 대해서도 추가비용이 거의 발생하지 않으므로 범용적 활용을 기대할 수 있어서 빠른 기술축척을 기대할 수 있다. 본 연구는 전략적 해안 보전 정책을 수행하기 위한 핵심요소기술의 적용성에 대하여 고찰하였다. 연구결과, 해안의 침 퇴적 사정에 따라 그때그때 파에너지의 투과율을 가변화시킴으로서 해안보호를 경제적으로 할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

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BUSINESS GUIDE 경영정보: 특별기획 -일본 대지진 경제적 충격파는 어디까지?

  • 한국전기제품안전협회
    • Product Safety
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    • s.209
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    • pp.52-57
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    • 2011
  • 일본 동북지방에서 발생한 대지진으로 일본경제뿐 아니라 세계경제 및 국제금융시장에서의 불확실성이 높아지고 있다. 부품소재 강국인 일본 주력산업에 피해가 발생하면서 글로벌 분업 네트워크에 대한 충격이 우려되는 상황이다. 각종 전자부품, 첨단소재 산업의 겨우 고급차질이 장기화되면 부정적 영향이 확대될 것으로 보이며, 석유화학제품은 수급불안과 가격 상승이 불가피할 것으로 판단된다.

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BUSINES GUIDE 경영정보: 특별기획 -일본 대지진 경제적 충격파는 어디까지?(2)

  • 한국전기제품안전협회
    • Product Safety
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    • s.210
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    • pp.46-51
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    • 2011
  • 일본 동북지방에 발생한 대지진으로 일본경제뿐아니라 세계경제 및 국제금융시장에서의 불확실성이 높아지고 있다. 부품 소재 강국인 일본 주력산업에 피해가 발생하면서 글로벌 분업 네트워크에 대한 충격이 우려되는 상황이다. 각종 전자부품, 첨단소재 산업의 경우 공급차질이 장기화되면 부정적 경향이 확대될 것으로 보이며, 석유화학 제품은 수급불안과 가격 상승이 불가피할 것으로 판단된다.

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