• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경제규모

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Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.175-196
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    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

A National Survey on the Prevalence and Risk Factors of Child Sexual Abuse (아동기 성학대 발생과 배경요인)

  • Han, In-Young;Lee, Yong-Woo;Yoo, Seo-Koo;Park, Myung-Sook;Kim, Jin-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.131-153
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    • 2008
  • Based upon the first national sample of adult men and women, the study aims to examine the prevalence of chid sexual abuse in Korea and factors related to the incidence of child sexual abuse. The results of the study show that 20.8% of the sample experienced one or more types of sexual abuse in their childhood, which indicates that Korean society is not any longer immune to child sexual abuse. With regard to how to cope with sexual abuse, "not informed to anyone and did not get any help at all" is the most major one for all types of sexual abuse. Even those who got help were reported to depend heavily upon private routes such as parents, relatives, or friends, indicating the urgency of establishing systematic intervention schemes for the problem. The results of a logistic regression analysis show that gender of the child, involvement in delinquent behaviors, economic status of the family, number of siblings, and residence in high-crime region are significantly related to the incidence of child sexual abuse. These results of the study would be expected to provide a useful guideline for developing policies or intervention programs aimed to prevent or address child sexual abuse.

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A Study on the Surface Erosion by the Development of Cropland on the Hillslope in the West Coast Area of North Korea Using Quick Bird Satellite Images (Quick Bird 영상을 이용한 북한 서해안 구릉지 개간에 따른 지표 침식 분석)

  • Lee, Min-Boo;Kim, Nam-Shin;Lee, Gwang-Ryul;Han, Uk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.453-462
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    • 2005
  • The study deals with surface erosion patterns due to the development of cropland toward hillslope and hilltop in the Oncheon-gun, pyeongbuk province and Nampo city of west coast area in the North Korea, using Quick Bird satellite images with 60cm resolution. In North Korea, for national economic difficult after 1980 year, newly developed croplands have been along the gentle hillslope, in which it is possible for individual man power different from the tideland which needs large scaled man-power and equipment. The new croplands are named Darakbat(terraced farm with embankment) and Bitalbat(titled farm developed on the original hill slope), neighboring with orchard and grouped settlement in lower valley. For supplying agricultural water, irrigation ditches and temporal crop storages have been constructed, connecting Darakbat, Bitalbat and orchard. These cropland developments have caused surface erosion composed of 3 types such as pit, linear and headward erosion, together with rill and gully. Owing to poor management of cropland and irrigation system, topsoil erosion and, collapse and sedimentation of ditch and pool, caused the decrease of agricultural productivity. These analysis using Quick Bird images can suggest original raw data about geographical facts on North Korea agriculture and help to recover their agricultural system and plan future national unified land.

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The Development and Application of Bus Bunching Indices for Bus Service Improvement (버스서비스 개선을 위한 버스몰림지표 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Eun-Kyoung;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2008
  • As bus is realized by economical, environmental transportation that is available mass transport than car, various policy for improvement of services is achieved. As innovative public transportation systems like BMS (Bus Management System) have established, it is possible to manage bus service efficiently. However, the present bus service management system mainly focuses on enhancing service reliability represented by schedule adherence index. This study discusses the necessity of a special management for bus bunching phenomena at stops, and develops two kinds of bus bunching indices based on the Number of Berth and the Average Bus Arrival Rate. The bus bunching indices were measured by utilizing the bus operational information from BMS at the Seoul TOPIS(Transportation & Information Service). In order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Indices, the indices were applied to two different bus groups: buses on exclusive bus median lane, and regular (shared) lanes. As analysis result, is bunching as is near in downtown and is bunching to peak time morning than the afternoon. Compared with the schedule adherence index, the suggested indices were proved as an efficient complementary indices in the evaluation of the bus operational performance. The results of index comparison between exclusive bus median lane and shared lanes can promote the expansion of exclusive bus median lane. Moreover, it can also be used as a reference in deciding bus station scale including the Number of Berth and the route adjustment plan.

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Optimization of the Community Energy Supply System for D-Cube City, Multi Purpose Building (복합건물(D-Cube City) 지역에너지 공급체계 최적화)

  • Lee, Tae-Won;Kim, Yong-Ki;Lee, Kun-Woo;Lee, Ki-Bong;Cho, Dong-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.669-674
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    • 2012
  • D-Cube City is a recently completed multi purpose building consisting of four types of facilities; offices, a department store, a hotel, and congregation spaces. A community energy supply system(CES) has been installed to supply this building with electricity, steam, heat, and cold water. The BEMS, building energy management system, is currently being designed to reduce building energy consumption through the efficient operation of the various pieces of building service equipment. In this study the optimal methods for operating the CES of D-Cube City were considered. This system includes three combined heat and power systems, seven steam boilers, two hot water boilers, two absorption chillers, and four turbo chillers, and various other pieces of equipment. In result, the optimal methods of operating the CES for various energy demand levels were obtained along with the seasonal effects on the economic efficiency of the operation. The effect of the amount of energy demanded by the various facility areas on the total energy consumption was also analyzed.

Study on Combined Use of Inclination and Acceleration for Displacement Estimation of a Wind Turbine Structure (경사 및 가속도 계측자료 융합을 통한 풍력 터빈의 변위 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Woong;Sim, Sung-Han;Jung, Byung-Jin;Yi, Jin-Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2015
  • Wind power systems have gained much attention due to the relatively high reliability, good infrastructures and cost competitiveness to the fossil fuels. Advances have been made to increase the power efficiency of wind turbines while less attention has been focused on structural integrity assessment of structural sub-systems such as towers and foundations. Among many parameters for integrity assessment, the most perceptive parameter may be the induced horizontal displacement at the hub height although it is very difficult to measure particularly in large-scale and high-rise wind turbine structures. This study proposes an indirect displacement estimation scheme based on the combined use of inclinometers and accelerometers for more convenient and cost-effective measurements. To this end, (1) the formulation for data fusion of inclination and acceleration responses was presented and (2) the proposed method was numerically validated on an NREL 5 MW wind turbine model. The numerical analysis was carried out to investigate the performance of the propose method according to the number of sensors, the resolution and the available sampling rate of the inclinometers to be used.

An Optimization Algorithm of Gypsum Board Loss for Wall Finishing in Modular Construction System (모듈러건축 벽체마감 석고보드 손실 최적화 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Chin, Sangyoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2014
  • The ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced that they launched the pilot project to offer Happy House built with modular construction as part of the major projects of incumbent government in 2013. The market size of modular construction is getting increasingly enlarged together with strong will of government. The major challenges that current modular construction encounters can be summed up as lack of standardization of material on the stage of design and fabrication. The portion of material costs in modular construction marks 16 to 17% higher than the existing other construction method, and account for 60 % of total construction cost, which is why material management is the most important factor. However, the imperfect standardization and specification on design causes high loss of materials on fabrication, which makes the construction wastes and total construction cost increasing in accordance with the increase of material costs. This study has been conducted to verify major modules by developing optimization algorithm on gypsum board material among wall finishing materials. It is expected that this paper contributes not only to eco-friendly construction by minimizing the waste factors of materials through these efforts, but also to removing high cost issues which had been recognized as a setback of current modular construction.

Green Energy Technology Commercialization Promotion Methods using Smart Green Certification System and Regional Cooperation Network Construction (스마트 녹색인증 시스템 및 지역별 협력네트워크 구축을 통한 그린에너지 기술사업화 활성화 방안)

  • Ryu, Se-Hee
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2010
  • 최근 정부가 저탄소 녹색성장을 새로운 국정비전으로 제시하고 혁신적 그린에너지 기술개발을 위해 연평균 20%이상의 R&D 예산을 증액하고 있는 상황에서 연구개발결과의 상용화율 제고를 위한 연구기획, 평가, 관리시스템의 개선이 시급한 실정이다. 특히 선진국의 경우 최근 3년간 에너지분야 R&D의 상용화율이 미국 35.9%, 유럽 46.8%로서 24.2%인 한국에 비해 매우 높다고 할 수 있다. 이와같은 격차가 존재하는 것에 대해서 다양한 요인을 생각해볼 수 있겠지만, 크게 시장적인 또는 산업적인 측면에서의 중요도를 기준으로 연구과제를 선정하지 못하고 있다는 점과 연구개발결과를 효율적으로 사업화하고 있지 못하고 있다는 점을 생각해볼 수 있다. 특히 에너지 분야는 대규모 자금의 초기소요 및 개발기술 상용화기간의 장기화등으로 인해 사업화 실적이 타산업대비 매우 저조한 편이다. 이와같은 연구결과의 사업화와 관련된 문제점을 극복하기 위한 노력으로 국내에서 다양한 형태의 기술사업화 지원프로그램이 운영괴고 있으나, 에너지 분야에 특화된 프로그램은 부족한 상황이다. 반면에 미국의 경우, 재생에너지 R&D분야 전문투자자 그룹인 클린테크그룹 등을 중심으로 2002년부터 현재까지 다수의 녹색기술분야에 특화된 기술사업화 지원 프로그램을 운영하고 있다. 그 결과 현재까지 약 9년간 총 16억$의 투자유치에 성공함으로써 민간투자 활성화 역할을 담당하고 있다. 따라서 국내의 경우에도 이와같은 에너지 R&D 결과를 효과적으로 사업화로 연계시킬 수 있는 관련 프로그램 등이 시급히 도입되어야 할 것이다. 본 논문에서는 국내의 사업화 부진문제를 해결하기 위한 하나의 방안으로서 올해부터 정부주관으로 시행되고 있는 녹색인증사업을 활용하여 사업화가 유망한 기술 및 기업을 선별하고, 이에 대해 사업화 지원을 위한 후속프로그램을 적극 지원함으로써 연구개발결과의 경제적 활용도를 획기적으로 개선하는 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 또한 사업화 지원프로그램의 효율성을 높이기 위해 수도권, 영남권, 호남권 등 지역별 TP 등을 중심으로 기술사업화 협력 네트워크를 구축하고, 이를 기반으로 한 수요기술조사, 기술마케팅, 투자자유치 등의 관련프로그램을 개발하여 전단의 시스템과 융합시킴으로써 향후의 정부주도 R&D결과의 상용화율을 제고할 수 있는 시스템을 제안하고자 한다. 이에는 에너지 R&D분야별 기술적 시장적 특징분석, 지역별 산업특성과 기술공급 서플라이 체인분석을 토대로 한 기술이전 잠재수요기업 투자자를 대상으로 한 맞춤형 기술사업화 프로그램 등이 포함된다. 마지막으로 제안된 시스템에 대한 타당성 검증을 위해 올해년도에 시행한 녹색인증 기술사업화 연계프로그램 및 기술사업화 협력네트워크 활용사례 등을 분석하고, 향후 발전방향으로서 기술사업화 유관기관간간 기술사업화 정보교환 및 사업화 유망기술 기업 마케팅 등을 기본내용으로 한 시장지향적 녹색에너지 R&D 관리 시스템 구축방안을 제시하고자 한다.

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Thin Capitalization - The Arm's Length Approach through Blockchain

  • Lee, Jeong-Mi
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.10
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 2020
  • This article proposes the unified an arm's length price of transfer pricing for thin capitalization since the scope of permanent establishment has been enlarged under Digital Economy and the implementation of Blackchain system to resolve the drawback of finding an arm's length price. The rule of current thin capitalization runs against the non-discrimination of taxation of the tax treaties and the national treatment which deals fairly with goods, sercice and capital money within the country under the treaty of commerce and navigator. In addition, the information of comparable uncontrolled debt are not available of current system to prove the debt which is not subject to the rule of thin capitalization. The united an arm's length price of transfer pricing for thin capitalization can apply to foreign investment as well as domestic corporations, thereby resolving the problem of the non-discrimination of taxation of the tax treaties and the treaty of commerce and navigation. The availability of transaction level data through Blockchain platform to decide whether the debt can be subject to thin capitalization can resolve the issue of comparable uncontrolled debt transaction which can't be found in current business transactions. This article should shed light on the proposing of the unified an arm's length price of transfer pricing for thin capitalization and Blockchain system to prevent the income shifting. This propose provide implication for policymakers on current system of thin capitalization and arm's length principles.

A Study on Load Current and Temperature to Expect Lifetime of High-Power Cables (고전력 케이블의 잔여 수명 예측을 위한 부하 전류 및 온도 연구)

  • Um, Kee-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.199-203
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    • 2015
  • With the development of industry these days, the demand for electric power increases and the larger capacity for power transfer is required. The scales of facilities should become larger; and the relative systems are required to operate with a higher degree of reliability. Therefore, stabilization of electric power systems is an important issue. The high degree of reliability required in the process of production and supply of electric power is an essential part of industrial society. Accident such as blackouts causes a hugh amount of economic losses to the high-tech industrial society dependent upon electric power. This paper is about the basic study of the relations between the load current and lifetime of power cables in operation. In order to do the research, we installed a current transformer and an equipment for measuring temperature at the 6.6. kV cables in operation. The two equipments have been installed on the cable systems in operation for the last 20 years. Since the insulation resistance of most of the cables showed the value larger than the threshold, it was not easy to tell the remaining lifetime of cables. The load current of the cables was almost constant. The surrunding temperature was $15{\sim}25^{\circ}C$, little variation of temperature values.