• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.10-16
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• 2019

Information on overpressure, positive phase duration, and impulse are required to assess the effects of shock waves or pressure waves on the structure. In this study, the overpressure and positive phase duration were determined by applying the Multi-Energy Method, which is found to be effective in analyzing the explosion of vapor clouds. Based on the total heat of combustion estimated in the cyclohexane vapor cloud explosion in the Nypro Ltd(UK), overpressure and positive phase duration at the distance of 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280, 320, 360(m) from the source of explosion were evaluated. Overpressure was shown to decrease exponentially and positive phase duration increased almost linearly with distance. A probit function was used to assess the probability of damages for the structures at each distance using the overpressure and impact obtained at the above mentioned distances. The Analyses of probability of damages have shown that there is a high probability of collapse at distances within 120m, major damage to structures within 240m, and minor damage and breakage of window panes of structures occur over the entire distances.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.781-791
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• 2015

Dam risk analysis requires a systematic process to ensure that hydrologic variables (e.g. precipitation, discharge and water surface level) contribute to each other. However, the existing dam risk approach showed a limitation in assessing the interdependencies across the variables. This study aimed to develop Bayesian network based dam risk analysis model to better characterize the interdependencies. It was found that the proposed model provided advantages which would enable to better identify and understand the interdependencies and uncertainties over dam risk analysis. The proposed model also provided a scenario-based risk evaluation framework which is a function of the failure probability and the consequence. This tool would give dam manager a framework for prioritizing risks more effectively.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.119-127
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• 2010

This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.65-71
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• 2004

A multi-attribute utility analysis was investigated as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident. The utility function of attributes was assumed to be the second order polynomial expressions, and the weighting constant of attributes was determined using a swing weighting method. Because the main objective of this study focuses on the applicability of a multi-attribute utility analysis as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident, less quantifiable attributes were not included due to lack of information. In postulated accidental scenarios for the application of the designed methodology, the variation of the numerical values of total utility for the considered actions, e.g. sheltering, evacuation and no action, was investigated according to the variation of attributes. As a result, it was shown that the numerical values of total utility for the actions are distinctly different depending on the exposure dose and monetary value of dose. As increasing in both attributes, the rank of the numerical values of total utility increased for evacuation, which is more extreme action than for sheltering, while that of no action decreased. As expected probability of high dose is higher, the break-even values for the monetary value of dose, which are the monetary value of dose when the ranking of actions is changed, were lower. In audition, as aversion psychology for dose is higher, the break-even values for dose were lower.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.178-188
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• 2019

When using a distributed system, it is very important to know the intention of a target ship in order to prevent collisions. The action taken by a certain ship for collision avoidance and the action of the target ship it intends to avoid influence each other. However, it is difficult to establish a collision avoidance plan in consideration of multiple-ship situations for this reason. To solve this problem, a Distributed Stochastic Search Algorithm (DSSA) has been proposed. A DSSA searches for a course that can most reduce cost through repeated information exchange with target ships, and then indicates whether the current course should be maintained or a new course should be chosen according to probability and constraints. However, it has not been proven how the parameters used in DSSA affect collision avoidance actions. Therefore, in this paper, I have investigated the effect of the parameters and weight factors of DSSA. Experiments were conducted by combining parameters (time window, safe domain, detection range) and weight factors for encounters of two ships in head-on, crossing, and overtaking situations. A total of 24,000 experiments were conducted: 8,000 iterations for each situation. As a result, no collision occurred in any experiment conducted using DSSA. Costs have been shown to increase if a ship gives a large weight to its destination, i.e., takes selfish behavior. The more lasting the expected position of the target ship, the smaller the sailing distance and the number of message exchanges. The larger the detection range, the safer the interaction.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.89-95
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• 2003

This paper proposes downlink blocking model and approximation equation using lower bound approximation in order to determine the proper guard band between cdma2000 1X and WCDMA in handover areas. The frequency sharing conditions obtained by the model and approximation equation on blocking probability proposed in the paper, are co-site of base station and guard band higher than 1 MHz. Also, the proposed equation is in the form of Q-function. It is an analytical solution overcoming the drawback of recalculation, belonged to Monte-Carlo technique.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2011

Joint roughness is one of the most important parameters in analysis of rock slope stability. Especially in probabilistic analysis, the random properties of joint roughness influence the probability of slope failure. Therefore, a large dataset on joint roughness is required for the probabilistic analysis but the traditional direct measurement of roughness in the field has some limitations. Terrestrial LiDAR has advantagess over traditional direct measurement in terms of cost and time. JRC (Joint Roughness Coefficient) was calculated from statistical parameters which are known from quantitative methods of converting the roughness of the material surface into JRC. The mean, standard deviation and distribution function of JRC were obtained, and we found that LiDAR is useful in obtaining large dataset for random variables.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.21-29
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• 2011

Wireless sensor nodes operate in open environments. The deployed sensor nodes are very vulnerable to physical attacks from outside. Attackers compromise some sensor nodes. The compromised nodes by attackers can lead to false data injection into sensor networks. These attacks deplete the limited energy of sensor nodes. Ye et al. proposed the Statistical En-Route Filtering (SEF) as a countermeasure of the attacks. The sensor node in SEF examines the event reports based on certain uniform probability. Thus, the same energies are consumed in both legitimate reports and false reports. In this paper, we propose a method that each node controls the probability of attempts to verify a report to reduce energy consumption of sensor nodes. The probability is determined in consideration of the remaining energy of the node, the number of hops from the node to SINK node, the ratio of false reports. the proposed method can have security which is similar with SEF and consumes lower energy than SEF.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.141-152
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• 2007

Considering uncertainties of random input data, it is more reasonable to use probabilistic method than the conventional deterministic method for the design of structures or for the assessment of the responses of structures, which are designed as safe even under extreme loads. Therefore, to assess the quantitative effects of the constructed cable stayed bridge by the input random variables, a sensitivity analysis is studied. Using perturbation method, an analysis program is developed for the iterative probabilistic finite element analyses and sensitivity analyses of the cable stayed bridge, except the initial shape analysis. Monte-Carlo Simulations were used for the verification of the developed program. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the governing effects of external loads. Because the results also provide the sensitive effects of the stiffness of members and the magnitudes of prestressing force of cables, the developed

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.485-495
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• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.