• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정성 검증

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A Profit Prediction Model in the International Construction Market - focusing on Small and Medium Sized Construction Companies (CBR을 활용한 해외건설 수익성 예측 모델 개발 - 중소·중견기업을 중심으로 -)

  • Hwang, Geon Wook;Jang, woosik;Park, Chan-Young;Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Jong Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2015
  • While the international construction industry for Korean companies have grown in market size exponentially in the recent years, the profit rate of small and medium sized construction companies (SMCCs) are incomparably lower than those of large construction companies. Furthermore, small and medium size companies, especially subcontractor, lacks the judgement of project involvement appropriateness, which leads to an unpredictable profit rate. Therefore, this research aims to create a profit rate prediction model for the international construction project focusing on SMCCs. First, the factors that influence the profit rate and the area of profit zone are defined by using a total of 8,637 projects since the year 1965. Seconds, an extensive literature review is conducted to derive 10 influencing factors. Multiple regression analysis and corresponding judgement technique are used to derive the weight of each factor. Third, cased based reasoning (CBR) methodology is applied to develop the model for profit rate analysis in the project participation review stage. Using 120 validation data set, the developed model showed 11% (14 data sets) of error rate for type 1 and type 2 error. In utilizing the result, project decision makers are able to make decision based on authentic results instead of intuitive based decisions. The model additionally give guidance to the Korean subcontractors when advancing into the international construction based on the model result that shows the profit distribution and checks in advance for the quality of the project to secure a sound profit in each project.

The Magnitude of the Third-person Effect by Comparison Target: A Study on the Effects of Relation of Perceivers to the Comparison Targets and Their Involvement in the Issue (지각대상자에 따른 제3자 효과 지각 변화의 원인: 수용자와 지각대상자의 관계와 관여도를 중심으로)

  • Jeong, Ir-Kwon
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.35
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    • pp.362-393
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this manuscript was to investigate the effects of issue involvement and relation of perceivers to comparison targets on the magnitude of third person perceptions. The investigation was expected to help us to understand the underlying process of third person effect hypothesis. Data was collected from adult residents in Ohio, United States by telephone survey in 2003(n=524). Like most other third person effect studies, this study supported the hypothesis: Respondents perceived more media effects on others than themselves for both 'Negative media portrayals of smokers' and 'News coverage of Roman Catholic priest's sexual scandals'. Results of five hypothesis tests suggest that when relationship between a perceiver and a particular comparison target is present third person perception is explained more by cognitive components than motivational components. In this case, third person perception varies with comparison target's issue involvement while it is independent of social distance between the perceivers and the comparison target. Also, perceivers' issue involvement positively correlates with the magnitude of third person effect. Based on the results, it is concluded that when perceives or a comparison target is involved in a message cognitive processes accounting for the relationship can impact the magnitude of third person effect. An important theoretical implication of the study is that third person effect is, to some extent, related with framing effect and priming effect.

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Evaluation of 2D Shear Wave Velocity Imaging of Subground Using HWAW Method (HWAW 기법을 이용한 지반의 2차원 전단파 속도 평가)

  • Kim, Jong-Tae;Park, Hyung-Choon;Bang, Eun-Seok;Park, Heon-Joon;Kim, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2007
  • Two-dimensional imaging of $V_s$ profile becomes more important in Korea because of the large horizontal variation of soil stiffness. To obtain a shear-wave velocity profile in geotechnical practice, various seismic nondestructive investigation methods are being frequently used. In this study, harmonic wavelet analysis of wave (HWAW) method is applied to the determination of $V_s$ profile to overcome some of weaknesses in the existing surface wave methods. HWAW method which is based on time-frequency analysis using harmonic wavelet transform has been developed to determine phase and group velocities of waves. Field testing of this method is relatively simple and fast because one experimental setup which consists of one pair of receivers is needed to determine $V_s$ profile of site. The proposed method uses the signal portion of the maximum local signal/noise ratio to evaluate the phase velocity to minimize the effects of noise, and uses single array inversion which considers receiver locations. Field tests were performed in 2 sites in order to evaluate accuracy of test method and estimate the applicability of 2-D imaging by HWAW method. Through field applications and comparison with other test results, the good accuracy and applicability of the proposed method were verified.

Forecasting of Customer's Purchasing Intention Using Support Vector Machine (Support Vector Machine 기법을 이용한 고객의 구매의도 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Hwa;Nam, Ki-Chan;Lee, Sang-Jong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.137-158
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    • 2008
  • Rapid development of various information technologies creates new opportunities in online and offline markets. In this changing market environment, customers have various demands on new products and services. Therefore, their power and influence on the markets grow stronger each year. Companies have paid great attention to customer relationship management. Especially, personalized product recommendation systems, which recommend products and services based on customer's private information or purchasing behaviors in stores, is an important asset to most companies. CRM is one of the important business processes where reliable information is mined from customer database. Data mining techniques such as artificial intelligence are popular tools used to extract useful information and knowledge from these customer databases. In this research, we propose a recommendation system that predicts customer's purchase intention. Then, customer's purchasing intention of specific product is predicted by using data mining techniques using receipt data set. The performance of this suggested method is compared with that of other data mining technologies.

Application of Back Analysis for Tunnel Design by Modified In Situ Rock Model (현장암반 모델을 적용한 터널의 역해석)

  • Kim, Hak-Mun;Lee, Bong-Yeol;Hwang, Ui-Seok;Kim, Tae-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this research work is to propose an analytical method of tunnel design based on reasonable site data. Therefore the proposed design method consists of monitoring data and Modified In Situ Rock Model. Also the Rock Mass Rating for very poor quality rock is very difficult to estimate, the balances between the ratings may no longer gives a reliable basis for the rock mass strength. But in reality Rock Mass Rating is only the property which can be obtained from face mapping records of the exposed tunnel face during construction stage. Evaluation of rock parameters for the actual design prior to tunnel construction should be corrected during tunnelling process in particularly complex ground conditions. This study intends to investigate application of in-situ rock model to soft rock tunnelling (weathered rock) by face mapping results and site measurement data that are obtained at the costraction site of Seoul Subway Tunnel. For the preparation of more reliable ground parameters, the Rock Mass Rating values for the weathered rocks were modified and readjusted in accordance with the measurement data. The modified input parameters obtained by the proposed method are used for the prediction of the tunnel behavior at subsequent construction stages. The results of this study revealed that more reasonable feed back tunnel analysis can be possible as suggested. Ample measurement data would be able to confirm the new proposed technique in this research work.

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A Hybrid Knowledge Representation Method for Pedagogical Content Knowledge (교수내용지식을 위한 하이브리드 지식 표현 기법)

  • Kim, Yong-Beom;Oh, Pill-Wo;Kim, Yung-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.369-386
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    • 2005
  • Although Intelligent Tutoring System(ITS) offers individualized learning environment that overcome limited function of existent CAI, and consider many learners' variable, there is little development to be using at the sites of schools because of inefficiency of investment and absence of pedagogical content knowledge representation techniques. To solve these problem, we should study a method, which represents knowledge for ITS, and which reuses knowledge base. On the pedagogical content knowledge, the knowledge in education differs from knowledge in a general sense. In this paper, we shall primarily address the multi-complex structure of knowledge and explanation of learning vein using multi-complex structure. Multi-Complex, which is organized into nodes, clusters and uses by knowledge base. In addition, it grows a adaptive knowledge base by self-learning. Therefore, in this paper, we propose the 'Extended Neural Logic Network(X-Neuronet)', which is based on Neural Logic Network with logical inference and topological inflexibility in cognition structure, and includes pedagogical content knowledge and object-oriented conception, verify validity. X-Neuronet defines that a knowledge is directive combination with inertia and weights, and offers basic conceptions for expression, logic operator for operation and processing, node value and connection weight, propagation rule, learning algorithm.

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A Study on Time Series Analysis of Membrane Fouling by using Genetic Algorithm in the Field Plant (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 막오염 시계열 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Jin Sook;Kim, Jun Hyun;Jun, Yong Seong;Kwak, Young Ju;Lee, Jin Hyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.8
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    • pp.444-451
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    • 2016
  • Most research on membrane fouling models in the past are based on theoretical equations in lab-scale experiments. But these studies are barely suitable for applying on the full-scale spot where there is a sequential process such as filtration, backwash and drain. This study was conducted in submerged membrane system which being on operation auto sequentially and treating wastewater from G-water purification plant in Incheon. TMP had been designated as a fouling indicator in constant flux conditions. Total volume of inflow and SS concentration are independent variables as major operation parameters and time-series analysis and prediction of TMP were conducted. And similarity between simulated values and measured values was assessed. Final prediction model by using genetic algorithm was fully adaptable because simulated values expressed pulse-shape periodicity and increasing trend according to time at the same time. As results of twice validation, correlation coefficients between simulated and measured data were $r^2=0.721$, $r^2=0.928$, respectively. Although this study was conducted limited to data for summer season, the more amount of data, better reliability for prediction model can be obtained. If simulator for short range forecast can be developed and applied, TMP prediction technique will be a great help to energy efficient operation.

Optimization of Organosolv Pretreatment of Waste Wood for Lignin Extraction (폐목재로부터 리그닌 추출을 위한 Organosolv 전처리공정의 최적화)

  • Lee, Hyunsu;Kim, Young Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.10
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    • pp.568-574
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to optimize experimental conditions (time ($X_1$) (ranging of 26.36 - 93.64 min), concentration of sulfuric acid ($X_2$) (ranging of 0-2.5%) and temperature ($X_3$) (ranging of $136.4-203.6^{\circ}C$) for an organosolv pretreatment process to extract lignin from waste wood. The resulting quadratic model equation using RSM (response surface methodology) represented y (lignin yield) = $-79.89+0.91X_1+9.8X_2-2.54{\times}10^{-3}X_1{^2}-2.11X_2{^2}$. The $R^2$ (coefficient of determination) value of 0.8531 for a model indicates this model has statistically significant predictors at the 10% levels. The predictive results optimized by quadratic model produced a lignin yield of 12.46 g/100 g of dry wood under conditions of $178.2^{\circ}C$ and 2.32% $H_2SO_4$. The lignin yield was more affected by the acid catalyst concentrations than the reaction temperature, but the reaction time was not an influential factor for improving lignin extraction from waste wood in this organosolv pretreatment. According to ANOVA (analysis of variance), the significance probability (p-value) of model was smaller than 0.001 and simulation of obtained model equations showed a good reproducibility based on actual organosolv tests under optimal conditions.

LRFD Design and Reliability Level Estimation of a Steel Closed-Box Girder Bridge (폐단면 강박스거더교의 LRFD 설계와 신뢰성수준 평가)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Yun, Dong-Geon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2010
  • Most of the steel bridges in Korea are being currently designed by the allowable stress design method that uses the conventional deterministic factors of safety. However the limit state design based on the concept of probability, statistics and reliability engineering is becoming very popular as a global standard deign method, leading the rational and economic bridge design. As part of the fundamental research to establish the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) of steel bridges considering domestic environmental conditions and regional characteristics, an experimental design is conducted by applying AASHTO-LRFD specification especially to a steel closed-box girder, which occupies relatively a large portion of steel bridges in Korea. Throughout the experimental design according to various sectional changes, some of the issues to be considered in the LRFD design of a composite steel closed-box girder bridge are examined. In this process, an Excel-based design verification program is developed for easy computation and prevention of errors. Quantitative reliability levels of the bridge sections designed by LRFD are also estimated using a reliability analysis method, and compared with the target reliability indexes applied in the LRFD design to verify the validity of the procedure and methodology used in this study.

Estimation of Overall Heat Transfer Coefficient for Single Layer Covering in Greenhouse (일중 피복온실의 관류열전달계수 산정)

  • Hwang, Young-Yun;Lee, Jong-Won;Lee, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to suggest a model to calculate the overall heat transfer coefficient of single layer covering for various greenhouse conditions. There was a strong correlation between cover surface temperature and inside air temperature of greenhouse. The equations to calculate the convective and radiative heat transfer coefficients proposed by Kittas were best fitted for calculation of the overall heat transfer coefficient. Because the coefficient of linear regression between the calculated and measured cover surface temperature was founded to 0.98, the slope of the straight line is 1.009 and the intercept is 0.001, the calculation model of overall heat transfer coefficient proposed by this study is acceptable. The convective heat transfer between the inner cover surface and the inside air was greater than the radiative heat transfer, and the difference increased as the wind speed rose. The convective heat transfer between the outer cover surface and the outside air was less than the radiative heat transfer for the low wind speed, but greater than for the high wind speed. The outer cover convective heat flux increased proportion to the inner cover convective heat flux linearly. The overall heat transfer coefficient increased but the cover surface temperature decreased as the wind speed increased, and the regression function was founded to be logarithmic and power function, respectively.