• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.143-152
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• 2009

Recent raw material prices fluctuation has been unexpectedly high and that made Korean economic activities to be depressed. Because most raw material supply in Korea depends upon oversea imports, unexpected raw material price fluctuation affects Korean industrial economies through macroeconomic variables. So Korean government enforces some political measures such as demand management and the supply-security assurance as long-range policies, and reservation and general early warning system as short-range policies. In short-range policies, it is necessary to be expected short term fluctuation. Up to recently, there have been many researches and most of those researches use parametric methods or time series analyses. Because those methods and analyses often generate inadequate relations among variables, it is possible that some consistent variables are left out or the results are misunderstood. This study, therefore, is aim to mitigate those methodological problems and find the relatively appropriate model for economic explanation. So that, in this paper, by using non-parametric signal approach method mitigating some shortages of previous researches and forecasting properly short-range prices fluctuation of non-ferrous materials are presented empirically.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.41-54
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• 2016

We examine the information transmission between the business survey index(BSI) based on the returns data offered by Federation of Korean Industries and KOSPI Index based on the returns data offered by Korea Bank. The data includes monthly return data from January 1998 to September 2015. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality KOSPI Index precede and have explanatory power BSI. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that BSI Index show immediate response to KOSPI Index and are influenced by till time 4 From time 2 the impact gradually disappears. Also KOSPI Index show immediate response to BSI and are influenced by till time 4 From time 2 the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis showed a high influence of the KOSPI Index on the BSI and significant influence of the BSI on the KOSPI Index. This implies that returns on the KOSPI Index have a significant influence over returns on the BSI. The study is a further extension of existing studies on information transmission mechanism between the BSI and KOSPI. Finally, our results can be used as a guide by the Korea Bank and Republic of Korea and as well as Federation of Korean Industries.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.96-131
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• 2019

Initially entering into the job market during hard times with unfavorable market institutions has a persistent, negative effect on young workers' subsequent employment. This paper analyzes hysteresis in youth unemployment by using a composite fixed-effect panel data model. Data sets for the age-cohort unemployment rate and for labor market institutions are constructed from OECD statistics from 21 advanced economies, including Korea, from 1985 to 2017, and are then readjusted to match with the peculiarities of the Korean market. In Korea, with a less-aggressive stance on active labor market policy spending, a male worker who experiences a one percentage point higher youth unemployment rate when he was 20- to 29-years-old has a 0.146 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the ages of 30-to 34-years-old and a 0.035 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the age of 35- to 39-years-old. These figures are larger than those in most countries that have more aggressive spending schemes. These findings point out that hysteresis in the Korean labor market can be mitigated by expanding active labor market policy spending more aggressively and more effectively.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.537-557
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• 2005

The estimate on volatility of stock price is related with optimum of portfolio and Important for allocation of capital asset. If the volatility of stock price is varied according to macroeconomic variables on monetary policy and industrial production, it will assist capital asset to allocate. This paper is related with stock market volatilities on macroeconomic variables in U.S. and Europe, Korea. And, it Is pertain to vary in time of this variables. Thus, this paper is related with volatilities of monetary and physical macroeconomic variables on basis of statistics. And, it is ranged front capital investment to portfolio allocation. Also, this paper takes out of sample forecast and study more after this. In case Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, the relative importance of monetary policy and Industrial production Is different from these countries. In case Italy and the Netherlands, monetary policy is primary factor at stabilizing for volatility of stock price. In case Korea, increasing monetary policy and industrial production is positively affected stock market. It is that the positive effect of stock price is caused by mollifying monetary policy and economic growth. Specially, this conclusion is similar to US. In Korea, gradual increase in monetary and industrial production is necessary to stability of stock market. It is different to previous results on basis of increasing stock price of money in long period.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.341-357
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• 1996

Some empirical studies have shown that asset prices respond to announcements of economic news, however, others also have found little evidence. This study assesses how market participants of the S&P 500 Index Futures reacted to the U.S. economic news announcements. For this purpose, using a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, we use several U.S. news variables, its each surprise component and interest rates. We find that some economic news variables affected significantly on the S&P 500 Index Futures. In other words, we find that weekend variable, lagged volatility, and surprise component of trade deficit increased level of volatility. However, interest rate, M1, unemployment announcements caused the variance of the S&P 500 Index Futures to reduce, and each of the surprise component of M1 and trade deficit increased it. The result suggests that resolution of uncertainty, through economic news announcement, while, in some cases, causes market participants to reduce their forecast of volatility, a large difference between the market's forecast and the realization of the series causes the volatility to increase.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.8
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• pp.3472-3477
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• 2011

Many researchers have studied to investigate causes of volatility and they have used macro economic variables. This paper defined the volatility as that of stock. Researches on the volatility of stock and corporate performances are not adequate yet. Therefore, this paper estimate the volatility and corporate performances using ROA and Tobin Q. Results show the following suggestions, first, there is negative effect on the volatility of stock when we use ROA as the corporate performances. Second, there is positive effect on the volatility of stock when we use Tobin Q as the corporate performances.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.455-475
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• 2009

According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.2 s.30
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• pp.162-170
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• 2006

Neural network analysis is expected to enhance the forecasting ability for the real estate market. This paper reviews definition, structure, strengths and weaknesses of neural network analysis, and verifies the applicability of neural network analysis for the real estate market. Neural network analysis is compared with regression analysis using the same sample data. The analyses model the macroeconomic parameters that influence the sales price of apartments. The results show that neural network analysis provides better forecasting accuracy than regression analysis does, what confirms the applicability of neural network analysis for the real estate market.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.171-192
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• 2010

In general, a stock index and its individual stocks are assumed to follow a random walk. A stock index is an important source of information and one that is seen by people everyday, regardless of their investment intentions. This paper examines the correlation between the KOSPI-the index that best reflects the Korean stock market and the macro - economic variables that have been found to influence the index by previous studies. The sample period considers the years after 2000 when the Korean stock market matured as restrictions on foreign investors were removed. For this purpose, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and KOSPI equation with a general pacific approach were used. This paper aims at verifying the factors that determined the KOSPI after 2000 and at examining whether there was structural change in the investment environment. It also investigates changes in the factors determining the KOSPI's performance as a result of structural changes in the investment environment. The V AR (Vector Autoregressive) model including the nine variables was selected as a baseline model whose stability was tested using the unit root test. The results from the VECM and the structural changes in the investment environment can be summarized by the following Inner story points.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.39-64
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• 2020

Typical business cycle models have difficulties in explaining key macroeconomic labor market variables, such as employment and unemployment, as they usually consider labor hour choices only. In this paper, we introduce labor market search and matching frictions into a New Keynesian nominal rigidity model and estimate it by Bayesian methods to examine the dynamics of the key labor market variables and business cycles in Korea. The results show that unemployment rates are largely explained by technology shocks, which affect the labor demand side, as well as labor supply shocks. In addition, wage bargaining shocks originating from the bargaining process between firms and workers have non-negligible negative effects on output and employment growth, and careful measures need to be taken to limit their adverse effects.