• Title/Summary/Keyword: 거시경제분석

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EMERGY Analysis of Korean Fisheries (한국수산업의 EMERGY 분석)

  • SOHN Ji-Ho;SHIN Sung-Kyo;CHO Eun-Il;LEE Suk-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.689-700
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    • 1996
  • Fisheries products have to be produced and maintained by work processes from the environment, sometimes helped by people. In Korean fisheries both environmental production and its economic use are included within the windows of system approach. EMERGY is the sum of all inputs expressed as one form of solar energy required directly and indirectly to make a product. Calculating EMERGY flows into Korean fisheries evaluates the real wealth contributed by environmental production and its economic use. Several indices calculated from EMERGY analysis table and a three-arm diagram give perspective on the type and efficiency of the environmental uses. Net EMERGY yield ratio is a measure of its net contribution to the economy beyond its own operation. For adjacent waters fisheries in Korea, the net contribution to the economy is 11.85 or higher, which is a stimulus to the economy that is able to purchase it. EMERGY investment ratio measures the intensity of the economic development and the loading of the environment. The ratio for Korean fisheries as a whole is 0.50, for the adjacent waters fisheries 0.09 and for the shallow-sea cultures 1.28, which is lower than the same index for the industry of the developed country (7.0). The component of environment drawn into production are large compared to purchased investment in Korean fisheries. Much more EMERGY is contained in fisheries products than in the paid services used to process the products. The EMERGY exchange ratio for Korean fisheries as a whole is 6.98, for the adjacent waters fisheries is 10.69 and for the shallow-sea cultures is 1.25. Using market values to evaluate wealth of environment resources is found to be many times too small. Money is paid only to people for their contribution, and never to the environment for its contribution. Macroeconomic value is the appropriate measure for discussing large-scale considerations of an economy, including environment and human goods & services.

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Short-term Construction Investment Forecasting Model in Korea (건설투자(建設投資)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型) 비교(比較))

  • Kim, Kwan-young;Lee, Chang-soo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 1992
  • This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

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Theories of International Migration: A Review and Proposal (국제이주이론: 기존이론의 평가와 행위체계론적 접근의 제안)

  • 석현호
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.5-37
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    • 2000
  • In this paper we have reviewed major theories of international migration by three phases of migration : initiation, perpetuation, and adjustment. Through the review it is found that factors affecting the three phases are not mutually exclusive but interrelated, and argued that for a comprehensive understanding of the phenomena we need a theoretical guideline useful to locate all the important factors associated to the entire process of migration. Neoclassical economic theory which has played a leading role in migration research. fails to be such a guideline. since it is grounded on the unrealistic assumption of rationality and does not take into account for historical-structural factors, as neo-Marxian theorists have claimed. Two major Marxian theories, dual labor market theory and world system theory, have been successful to identify macro-structural factors that induce main flows of international migration, but do not so in exploring situational factors affecting the process of migration, especially social and cultural factors. Accordingly this study proposes that in order to grasp international migration process comprehensively we need to research the phenomena in view of action system theory, that is, to study migrants\` economic, political, social, and cultural situations inclusively.

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A Study on the Structural Relationships among R&D Resources, R&D Collaboration, Policy Support, and Operational Performance - Focusing on Korean Health Industry Clusters - (R&D 자원, R&D 협력, 정책지원 및 운영성과의 구조적 관계에 대한 연구 -국내 보건산업 클러스터를 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Seok-Min
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.225-240
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    • 2019
  • It has been known that health industry clusters promote economy of a nation in a macro view and make growth and development of individual firm. As a result, Korean health industry has been grown to play a role of making a high value added in Kwangkyo, Daedeok, Wonju, and Songdo. Using 156 firms locating in health industry clusters such as Kwangkyo, Daedeok, Wonju, and Songdo in increasing value added, this study investigated the structural relationships among R&D resources, R&D collaboration, policy support, and operational performance. All hypotheses, except a hypothesis for the effect R&D resources on operational performance, are reported to be statistically significant. In other words, the positive effect of R&D resources on policy support is reported. And policy support and R&D collaboration positively affect operational performance, and also the positive effect of policy support on R&D collaboration is reported. From the empirical results, we can know that policy support and R&D collaboration are the crucial factors to promote operational performance of the firms locating in Korean health industry clusters. It is important that this study has been investigated with the firms of health industry developing economy of a nation.

A Study on the Ecological Factors Affecting the Quality of Life among the Elderly People (노년기 삶의 질에 영향을 미치는 생태체계적 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Na-Rae;Park, Chung-Sun
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.761-779
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the quality of life of elderly people from the ecological perspective. Specifically, this study attempts to compare the relative contributions of the variables from the individual system, microsystem, mesosystem, and macrosystem on the quality of life of the elderly people. The subjects for this study consisted of 443 elderly over 60 years old in Daegu city, Gyeongsang-do, and Chungchung-do areas. The data were collected randomly by interviews with a structured questionnaire, and analyzed by frequencies, means, ANOVA, and hierarchial regression method. The major-findings of this study were as follows: 1. The quality of life of the elderly consisted of four factors; physical, economic, psychological, and social factors. The highest satisfaction score for the quality of life was found in psychological factors, The global satisfaction score for the quality of life was found to be relatively high. 2. Out of the individual factors influencing the quality of life of the elderly, the economic status of the respondent was found to be the most important. Out of the microsystemic factors, the most important factors were found to be the intimacy with the spouse and with the children. Out of the mesosysystemic factors, the degree of the social participation of the elderly was found to be the most significant. However, none of the macrosystemic factors were found to be important in influencing the quality of life of the elderly people. 3. The relative significances of the variables contributing to the quality of life of the elderly were analyzed using a hierarchical regression technique. It was found that there was no significant factor in social background and mesosystemic variables. On the other hand, the degree of the self-efficacy and the level of the economic status from the individual factors, and the intimacy with the spouse and the children from microsystemic factors were found to be very significant in contributing the quality of life of the elderly.

How the Korean Fashion Industry is Viewed by WWD USA (미국 패션전문 일간지 WWD에 드러난 한국 패션산업에 대한 인식)

  • Lee, Yu-Ri;Medvedev, Katalin;Hunt-Hurst, Patricia;Choi, Yun-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.32 no.12
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    • pp.1915-1926
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    • 2008
  • Although we know that images of a country or an industry are influential factors in product evaluation, there has been little discussion about the channels through which consumers form a country or an industry image. Guided by the assumption that the image of the Korean fashion industry conveyed through U.S. media will likely affect the evaluation of Korean fashion products, we decided to examine articles published between January 1998 and June 2008 in Woman's Wear Daily(WWD), a prestigious U.S. daily trade newspaper covering all aspects of the national and international fashion business. By using the "Korean", we found 329 relevant articles. Through content analysis, we identified the aspects of the Korean fashion industry that have been considered salient to U.S. fashion media professionals. We set up categories based on the contents of the articles that discussed segments of the supply chain of the fashion industry. We found more comments on the Korean fashion industry as fiber and fabrics supplier or apparel manufacturer than in any other categories, which reflects that South Korea has been traditionally one of the most attractive sourcing countries for the U.S. fashion business. We identified significantly less coverage on the designing, branding, marketing, and retailing aspects of the Korean fashion industry. Due to economic boom in Korea, the country's fashion industry is recognized as having a highly fashion-conscious market that can afford the world's premium brands. However, the industry is viewed as being rather vulnerable to changes in the macro economic environment.

The Effect of Interest Rate Variability on Housing Prices (이자율 변동이 주택가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Myung-hoon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

A Study on Improving Estimation of Recurrence Rate of Public Water -Jungnangcheon Watershed- (생활용수 회귀수량 산정방법의 개선연구 -중랑천 유역을 대상으로-)

  • Jung, Chung Gil;Ahn, So Ra;Joh, Hyung Kyung;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.509-509
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    • 2015
  • 물 수요관리측면에 대한 정책을 수립하기 위해서는 현재 또는 장래에 대한 용수수급의 정확한 이해를 필요로 한다. 이를 위해서는 용수 수요량 및 공급량뿐만 아니라 여러 산정요소를 필요로 하는데, 그 중 회귀수량은 물이 이용되고 다시 하천으로 회귀되어 이용될 가능성이 있는 수량으로 정의되며, 용수수급 및 용수절약 측면에서 회귀 수량은 중요한 요소라 할 수 있다. 회귀수량 조사는 유역조사 사업 이래, 10년간 생?공용수를 중심으로 미시적, 거시적으로 조사를 시행하였으나, 측정 자료의 신뢰도, 조사방법 및 지점선정 등의 문제로 인하여 조사 성과의 활용성이 매우 낮은 실정이다. 수자원장기종합계획등에서는 수자원관련 계획 수립시 생?공용수의 회귀율을 65 %로 적용하고 있으나, 이는 1970년대 말의 사회적 여건 및 경제적 상황이 반연된 결과로 현재 상황에 적용되기 곤란하다. 따라서, 현재 실정에 맞는 회귀율 산정은 반드시 필요하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 기존 생활용수 회귀수량 산정 연구 한계를 보완하고 유역조사 시행을 위한 개선된 회귀수량을 산정하고자 한다. 본 연구는 서울시 중랑물재생센터 처리구역을 기반으로 중랑천유역을 시험유역으로 선정하였다. 기존 회귀수량 산정방법을 개선하기 위해 시험유역 회귀수량 산정을 위한 가용 자료 분석 및 용수흐름 네트워크 공간분석을 추가로 진행하였다. 가용자료로 시험 유역내 상수공급자료(정수장 공급량, 상수계통도, 유수 및 누수율), 하수처리자료(하수처리구역도, 하수처리계통도, 유입량 및 방류량) 및 기상자료(기상청 지점 및 AWS 강우자료)를 구축하였고 각각의 상수계통도 및 하수처리계통도로부터 용수 흐름 네트워크망을 구축하였다. 상수공급자료로부터 상수계통도 공급지역을 구분하여 월별 유수율에 따른 월별 실 공급량을 산정하였다. 하수처리자료로부터 시험유역에서의 월별하수처리 유입량 및 방류량을 산정하였다. 최종적으로 회귀율(하수처리 방류량/실 공급량)을 산정한 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 93.97 %(2011년), 95.02%(2012년)로 과잉 추정 되었으며 7 ~ 9월의 회귀율은 110 ~ 120 %로 유입량을 초과하였다. 이는, 하수처리로 유입되는 유입량의 하수관거는 합류식으로 구축되어 7 ~ 9월에 많은 양의 강우량이 우수관을 통해 하수처리장으로 이송되어 생활용수 이외에 자연적인 공급량으로 인한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서, 월별 회귀율 산정을 위해서는 불투수층에서의 면적강우량(mm)을 유입량(m3/s)으로 환산된 값을 고려하여 회귀율을 재산정하였다. 그 결과 연평균 회귀율은 각각 78.27 %(2011년), 77.58 %(2012년)로 나타났다.각각의 월별 회귀율도 매우 유사하게 나타났으며 과거 관용적으로 사용된 65 % 회귀율보다 약 12 ~ 13%로 증가하였으며 이는, 하수처리시설 구축 및 처리효율의 증가와 상수처리시설의 관로시설의 개량으로 인한 유수율 및 누수율 감소로 회귀율이 증가한 것으로 판단된다.

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An Analysis of Chinese Technology Billionaires (중국의 기술업 억만장자 분석)

  • Sun, Yunhao;Seol, Sung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1577-1605
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzes China's technology billionaires. However, this study does not show the accumulating process of wealth in each of the Chinese billionaires, because there are many technology billionaires, but only deals with the macro analysis of the technology billionaire; the pattern of existence, comparison with other industries, the process of wealth creation reflecting China's particularity, and comparison with the world's technology billionaires. The findings of this study are as follows. First, more than 10 billion yuan of Chinese billionaires will emerge from 2004. Second, in the early days, illegal and corruption made rich, but the wealth of own efforts has gradually increased. Third, the real estate and manufacturing billionaires are still strong overall, but the growth of billionaires in technology, medicine and finance industry is remarkable. Fourth, in the case of the top 10 richest, four are from real estate, four from technology, and two from manufacturing and distribution. Most technology billionaires are in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing and Shanghai. The determinants of the number of billionaires are GDP, exchange rate to US Dollar and Shenzen Stock Index, and those of technology billionaire are GDP and exchange rate. Given the relationship with existing theories, this study can be called the fifth type of billionaire research. Conceptually, the main reason for accumulating wealth is the search for policy opportunities, market opportunities and technology opportunities.

The Effect of Housing Affordability on Housing Prices Variation in Korea (주택구입능력이 주택가격 변동에 미치는 영향)

  • Heonyong Jung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.113-118
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables, including housing affordability, and bank loan-related variables on variation in housing prices using multiple regression models. As a result of the analysis, consumer price growth rate, the total currency growth rate, and the housing affordability growth rate had a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. As a result of analyzing the period of rising and falling housing prices, consumer price growth rate and the total currency growth rate during the period of rising housing prices had a significant positive effect on housing prices. Unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rate of household loans was found to have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. On the other hand, unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rater of mortgage loans was found to have a significant negative effect on changes in housing prices. The growth rate of housing affordability index did not have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices during a falling housing prices. The determinants of housing prices showed different patterns during the period of rising housing prices and falling housing prices.