• Title/Summary/Keyword: 거시경제분석

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A Study on the Effect of Chonsei Price Increase on the Index of Financial Industry (전세가격상승이 금융산업 생산지수에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jo, I-Un;Kim, Bo-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.457-467
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    • 2015
  • Despite the recent phenomena of Chonsei price increase, low interest rate and low growth, the indexes of financial and insurance industry production showed the results contrary to the common belief that the financial industry is sensitive to such financial crises. This is because the index of financial industry has continuously maintained a certain level of increase as opposed to the index of all industry production. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the dynamic correlation between the index of financial industry production and Chonsei price increase. A vector autoregression (VAR) model, which doesn't have a cointegrating relationship, was used to define the Chonsei price index and the indexes of all industry production and financial and insurance industry, which are macro economic variables, and describe the data. The results of the analysis on the time series data of 183 months from January 2000 to May 2015 showed that Chonsei price increase was not directly derived from the index of financial industry, but the finance industrial index affected Chonsei price increase.

A Comparative Study on Elderly Suicide Rates in Korea and the United States and Its Implications (한·미 노인자살률의 비교 연구와 정책적 시사점)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.427-435
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    • 2016
  • Any comparative study has not been done between Korea and a certain country about the social economic factors of elderly suicide rates, even though there has been comparative studies among several nations. Therefore, this study is going to reveal how the macro-social economic factors are related to elderly suicide rates based on Korea and the United States, which show great gap of elderly suicide rate and have completely different aspect of increasing and decreasing rate of elderly suicide, as members of OECD. For this, trend analysis has been done between elderly suicide rates of both Korea and the United States for the past twenty years(1990-2009) and social economic factors, and correlation analysis also has been done at the same time. After all, this study is going to suggest policy implications for the prevention of elderly suicide in our society based on the results of the analysis.

A Study of Selection of Self-employment in Korea (자영업 선택의 결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Byung-you
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.149-179
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    • 2003
  • This study is analysing the factors determining individuals' behavior of selecting self-employment not only at the micro-level but also at the macro-level to put a particular emphasis on the financial constraint and unemployment rate representing business cycle. The data used in this study are "Korean Labor and Income Panal Study" of the Korea Labor Institute and "Economically Active Population Survey" of National Statistical Office. The main findings are as follows. First, human capital such as educational attainment and job experience has positive effects on male's selection of self-employment. The effects of job experience, however, changed negative for female's selection of self-employment. Second, real estate is significantly enhancing the selection probabilities of employer selection while the income from financial assets has negative effects. Third, entrepreneurial culture and environment are also raising the self-employment selection probability. Lastly, the regional unemployment rate representing the business cycle has positive effects on the self-employment selection after the financial crisis in 1997 both at the micro and macro level. Moreover, the coefficient of regional unemployment rate has changed positive in the structural model of self-employment selection controlling for selection bias and income opportunities, which means that individual's behavior of self-employment selection is rather complex when accounting for the uncertainties of income opportunities and diverse characteristics of self-employment workforce.

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Opportunities and Challenges for Vietnam in AEC (AEC 출범 이후 베트남 경제의 기회와 도전)

  • Beak, Yong Hun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2017
  • This study is to examine the current situation of the AEC (ASEAN Economic Community) and analyze macroeconomic situation of Vietnam since the launch of AEC. According to recent trade indicators, Vietnam is expected to be more productive in the manufacturing and processing sectors because it is at the heart of the global value chains (GVCs) in electronics, telephones, and textiles and shoes industry. Vietnam has signed or is negotiating free trade agreements with various countries around the world including Korea, Israel, EU and RCEP and so on. Therefore, it is expected that Vietnam's trade dependency and FDI inflows to Vietnam increase more and more. However, the fact that the proportion of exports by foreign-invested companies accounts for about 70% of the total exports implies the uncertainty of Vietnam's economy in the future. Attracting FDI investment can further reduce the competitiveness of domestic companies in Vietnam. Therefore, in order for Vietnam to maintain sustainable development in the future, it is necessary to reform the momentum of foreign-invested enterprises to the development of Vietnamese companies.

Employment Structure in Korea: Characteristics & Problems (우리나라 고용구조의 특징과 과제)

  • Jang, Keunho
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.66-122
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    • 2019
  • As the Korean economy grew, employment expanded steadily, with the number of economically active people increasing and the employment-to-population rate also increasing. However, the working age population started to decline in 2017, and the employment of women and young people has been sluggish. The proportion of non-salaried workers in Korea is much higher than in other OECD countries, and is also excessive, considering Korea's income levels. In addition, the proportion of non-regular workers and the proportion of workers employed at small companies are particularly high among salaried workers. In light of these characteristics of Korean employment, the urgent problems facing the employment structure can be summarized by the deepening dual structure of the labor market, the increase in youth unemployment, sluggish female employment figures, and an excessive share of self-employment. Overall, it is seen that labor market duality is the main structural factor of the employment problems in Korea. Therefore, in order to fundamentally address this employment problem, it is necessary to concentrate policy efforts on alleviating labor market duality.

Text Mining-Based Analysis for Research Trends in Vocational Studies (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 직업학 연구동향 분석)

  • Yook, Dong-In
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.586-599
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    • 2017
  • This study attempts to understand the overall research trends in Vocational Studies using a text mining method, which is a means to analyze big data. The findings of the research show that Vocational Studies in Korea has been directly influenced by global economic crises, as evidenced by its exponential growth after the 1997 foreign exchange crisis that resulted in a bailout from the IMF. In addition, the topics of research have been shifting from such macro subjects as government policies and systems to such micro topics as individual career development. Moreover, the perspective of research is being moved from the socially vulnerable, including women and the disabled, to the economically marginalized, including retirees and the unemployed. As for the research targets, college students overwhelmingly outnumbered primary and secondary school students. However, few cases analyzed the clinical outcomes of career counseling or attempted to process job information and study the history of jobs. This research is limited in that it only analyzed journal abstracts. Nonetheless, it is meaningful because it used topic analysis, one of the text mining methods, to give a complete enumeration of all articles available for search, thereby crafting a framework of quantitative analysis methodology for Vocational Studies. It is also significant in that it is the first attempt to analyze themes in every stage of the development of Vocational Studies.

Innovation Technology Development & Commercialization Promotion of R&D Performance to Domestic Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 기술혁신 개발과 R&D성과 사업화 촉진 방안)

  • Lee, Yong-Seok;Rho, Do-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.788-818
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    • 2009
  • Renewable energy refers to solar energy, biomass energy, hydrogen energy, wind power, fuel cell, coal liquefaction and vaporization, marine energy, waste energy, and liquidity fuel made out of byproduct of geothermal heat, hydrogen and coal; it excludes energy based on coal, oil, nuclear energy and natural gas. Developed countries have recognized the importance of these energies and thus have set the mid to long term plans to develop and commercialize the technology and supported them with drastic political and financial measures. Considering the growing recognition to the field, it is necessary to analysis up-to-now achievement of the government's related projects, in the standards of type of renewable energy, management of sectional goals, and its commercialization. Korean government is chiefly following suit the USA and British policies of developing and distributing renewable energy. However, unlike Japan which is in the lead role in solar rays industry, it still lacks in state-directed support, participation of enterprises and social recognition. The research regarding renewable energy has mainly examinedthe state of supply of each technology and suitability of specific region for applying the technology. The evaluation shows that the research has been focused on supply and demand of renewable as well as general energy and solution for the enhancement of supply capacity in certain area. However, in-depth study for commercialization and the increase of capacity in industry followed by development of the technology is still inadequate. 'Cost-benefit model for each energy source' is used in analysis of technology development of renewable energy and quantitative and macro economical effects of its commercialization in order to foresee following expand in related industries and increase in added value. First, Investment on the renewable energy technology development is in direct proportion both to the product and growth, but product shows slightly higher index under the same amount of R&D investment than growth. It indicates that advance in technology greatly influences the final product, the energy growth. Moreover, while R&D investment on renewable energy product as well as the government funds included in the investment have proportionate influence on the renewable energy growth, private investment in the total amount invested has reciprocal influence. This statistic shows that research and development is mainly driven by government funds rather than private investment. Finally, while R&D investment on renewable energy growth affects proportionately, government funds and private investment shows no direct relations, which indicates that the effects of research and development on renewable energy do not affect government funds or private investment. All of the results signify that although it is important to have government policy in technology development and commercialization, private investment and active participation of enterprises are the key to the success in the industry.

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How does the General Public Understand Science and Technology Issues?: A Case on the Nuclear Power Issue Using Topic Modeling Approach (과학기술이슈에 대한 일반인의 인식분석: 토픽모델링을 활용한 원자력발전 사례)

  • Choi, Hyundo;Ahn, Jongwuk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.151-175
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    • 2015
  • The general public is a key stakeholder in the science and technology domain. However, traditional approaches require substantial efforts and resources to analyze how does the general public understand science and technology issues. We applied the topic modeling, a form of text clustering, to the texts about the nuclear power which were posted on an online space in order to explore the general public's thoughts on the issue. This study investigates the extent to which macro-level events influence understandings of the general public on the science and technology issues and weather these changes in understandings are sustained over time. It examines the possibility of applying topic modeling in narrowing a perception gap between the general public and the experts through a near-real-time monitoring of the public interests and perceptions about the science and technology issues.

전기요금(電氣料金) 변동(變動)의 국민경제적(國民經濟的) 효과(效果) 분석(分析)

  • Han, Jin-Hui;Yu, Si-Yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.195-246
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    • 1997
  • 우리나라에서 전기요금은 공공요금으로서 정부의 정책의지에 의하여 크게 영향을 받아왔다. 또한 전기요금수준 조정시 규제당국의 주된 관심은 요금인상이 국민경제에 미치는 영향, 특히 물가 및 무역수지에 미치는 영향에 있었다고 할 수 있다. 이러한 상황에서 전기요금변동의 국민경제적 영향에 대한 신뢰할 수 있는 분석결과는 올바른 정책수립에 필수적이라고 할 수 있다. 본고는 계산가능한 일반균형모형(Computable General Equilibrium model)을 이용하여 1993년도의 산업연관표를 토대로 전기요금의 인상이 물가, 수출입 등 거시변수에 미치는 효과 및 산업부문별 효과를 살펴본 것이다. 전기요금인상이 물가에 미치는 영향은 간단히 '전기요금인상률${\times}$물가가중치'라는 공식으로 계산해볼 수 있다. 이에 따르면 전기의 소비자물가 가중치가 14/1,000이므로 전기요금인상률이 4%일 때 소비자물가상승률은 약 0.056%가 된다. 그러나 전기가 타산업의 중간투입물로 사용되므로 전기요금인상은 타산업 산출물의 가격상승을 유발하고 다시 투입-산출관계에 의하여 추가적인 물가상승을 불러일으키게 된다. 이러한 일반균형적 효과를 모두 고려하여, 본 연구에서 계산한 소비자물가상승률은 0.083%로서 위 수치의 약 1.5배이다. 또한 본고에서는 전기요금인상에 따라 수출과 수입 모두 감소하되, 수출감소율이 수입감소율보다 크게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 전기요금인상에 따라 전기수요가 감소하여 에너지수입이 감소하고, 그로 인해 무역수지가 개선되리라는 일부의 주장과는 매우 대조적이다. 산업별로는 전기요금인상에 따라 서비스업의 가격상승이 두드러지는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 서비스업부문의 국내재와 수입재간의 대체가능성이 타부문에 비하여 크게 낮은 데 기인한 것으로 보인다. 본고의 결과를 전기요금이 인상되어서는 안 된다고 해석하는 것은 오류일 수 있다. 전기요금인상의 타당성은 전력산업에 대한 종합적인 미시적 분석에 기초하여야 한다.

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Location Decisions of Startups and Dynamics of Cluster Growth (기업가의 창업위치선택과 클러스터의 성장동력: 바이오벤처의 창업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Dong-Won
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.69-95
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    • 2009
  • This paper examines the motives for location decisions of startups and dynamics of cluster growth. Because the location decision is intrinsically strategic choice by entrepreneurs, it is an interplay of three critical forces; cost-benefit of the choice, R&D ability of new entrants, and R&D capability of incumbents in clusters. The effect of knowledge spillovers influences the cluster growth like a double-edge sword; both a positive effect of technology learning and a negative effect of knowledge de-learning. Using data on 710 bio-tech venture firms in Korea, this paper tests the hypotheses about the factors influencing the growth of the cluster. The empirical analyses suggested that early entrepreneurial activity in the clustered regions were important, however other factors such as the organizational legacy, internal dynamics inside a cluster, and the existence of cooperation norm in the cluster, affected long term viability of the cluster.

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