• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.23-49
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• 2008

We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. And, the aim of this paper is related to forecast the stock market, business cycle index and industrial production by various indicators of economic activities in Korea. For this, our paper sets models and focuses on empirical test. The stock market on this month correlate with industries in Korea. The stock market doesn't lead to industries. The industries and macroeconomic variables have high correlation. We test that gradual diffusion of industrial information will predict stock market in Korea. For this, we analysis on possibility of Granger cause by VAR models between industries and stock market. As a result, 21 portfolios cause to Kospi statistically significance at 5%. Especially, the Beverage portfolio has bilateral Granger causality to Kospi. In case of Internet and Cosmetics portfolio, Kospi has unilateral Granger causality to it. The predictability of specific industries has a relation to Macroeconomic variables. What industrial portfolios predict to Business Coincidence Index? The only 6 industrial portfolios of 36 portfolios have a statistically significance at 10%. And, 9 portfolios have a statistically significance at 5%.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.67-81
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• 2016

This paper examines the influence of Brexit on container volume of Korea, especially of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and industrial production of EU and United Kingdom. To do this, we use monthly time series data during 2000-2016, and introduce the analysis method of cointegration test and VECM, and analyze the influence of industrial production and exchange rate of EU and U.K. on container volume of Korea. The results are as follows. First, the container volume of Korea is influenced by the exchange rate and industrial production of EU in the long run. But the exchange and industrial production of U.K. influenced on only export container volume of Korea, and the influence of U.K. macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea was not large in the long lun. Second, In the shot run, the influence of exchange rate on container volume of Korea, especially on export container volume was significant in EU and U.K. To sum up, the influence of EU macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea is larger than that of U.K., and the influence of exchange rate variable is more significant than that of industrial production variable.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.419-448
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• 2008

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential impacts on the Korean economy of Agreement on Trade in Services Under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Among the Governments of the Republic of Korea and the Member Countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which was signed on 21 November 2007 using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Tariff equivalents of services were calculated on the basis of concessions made in the Agreement between Korea and ASEAN member countries. The empirical analysis shows that Korea is to get an additional gain in real GDP of 0.04 percent and in welfare of US$106 million, with an increase in per capita utility of 0.03 percent. Total exports and imports of Korea are to rise by US$179 million and $191 million, respectively, causing a trade deficit of $12 million. Korea's exports to ASEAN member countries will increase by $108 million and Korea's imports from them will rise by $278 million, giving rise to a trade deficit of $170 million.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.1-21
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• 2013

This study aims at conducting a quantitative assessment of potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) consisting of 10 Member States of the ASEAN, Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand using a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model. Three different policy scenarios are carried out based on baseline scenarios: China-Japan-Korea FTA (Scenario 1); ASEAN+3 FTA (Scenario 2); and the RCEP (Scenario 3). The impacts of three scenarios are described in terms of real GDP, Equivalent Variation as a measure of welfare, export and import volumes, trade balance, and terms of trade. This study finds that the RCEP is to lead to an increase in real GDP of all members of the RCEP, with Korea as a winner with a highest additional economic growth of 2.43 percent, which implies that Korea is in a better position to play a leading role in promoting the RCEP.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.1198-1199
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• 2023

부동산 시장은 다양한 요인에 의해 가격이 결정되며 거시경제 변수뿐 만 아니라 뉴스 기사, SNS 등 다양한 비정형 데이터의 영향을 받는다. 특히 뉴스 기사는 국민들이 느끼는 경제 심리를 반영하고 있어 부동산 가격에 영향을 크게 미치는 변수라고 판단된다. 본 연구에서는 뉴스 기사의 세분화된 감정 분석을 통해 전통적인 분석 방법보다 더 의미 있는 결과를 얻을 수 있는 부동산 가격 예측 모델을 생성하였으며 뉴스 기사로부터 심리 지수를 산출하기 위해 생성 AI 를 활용하였다. 제안하는 매매가격지수 예측 모델을 통해 부동산 시장과 뉴스 기사와의 관계성에 대해 파악할 수 있으며, 사회/경제적 동향을 반영한 부동산 가격 변동을 예측할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.631-646
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• 2013

This paper empirically explores the pattern of causality between bank lending and housing prices in Korea over a period of the early 1990s to the end of 2000s by employing a long term cointegration and short-term time series regression analysis. Although the contemporaneous correlation between bank lending and housing prices is large, the analysis shows that the intense interaction between credit growth and bank lending to household arises from a growth in banking lending responding to an increase in housing prices. In addition, the regulatory change such as the introduction of financial constraints on bank loans such as LTV and DTI in the early and mid-2000s has played a significant role in stabilizing financial and real estate markets.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.35-51
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• 2016

Using the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) from 2000 to 2008, we estimate the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. Our point estimates of the intensive margin elasticity are around 0.23. The estimates are not sensitive to changes in household income and assets as well as changes in workweek regulation during the sample period that workers shall work for 5 days per week from Monday to Friday. We also estimate the extensive margin elasticity by considering labor market participation. We find that the point estimates at the extensive margin are greater than those at the intensive margin, but not statistically significant.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.71-105
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• 2013

Now that fiscal soundness is increasingly important influenced by the euro area fiscal crisis, early budget execution has been under the spotlight as a tool for economy control, other than typical expansionary method, such as supplementary budget. Basically, early budget execution is a fiscal policy instrument that reponses to economic fluctuations through modifying the inter-temporal allocation of fiscal expenditure within budget, without affecting fiscal soundness. This study empirically examines how effective the intert-temporal reallocation of fiscal expenditure is in economy control. Using Korea's Consolidated Fiscal data, the size of inter-temporal reallocation of fiscal expenditure is defined as changes of fiscal expenditure for one year excluding seasonal factors and used to explain real economic growth rate, a dependent variable. The result shows that the macroeconomic effect of the inter-temporal reallocation turns out meaningful in general, though some policy time lag exists. Meanwhile, a simulation using macroeconomic model finds that overall effect on economic growth is not large because increase in fiscal expenditure allocation at a certain point of time is canceled by the opposite direction within the same fiscal year. However, the inter-temporal reallocation is found to reduce volatility of key macroeconomic variables so as to contribute to partially stabilizing macroeconomy. In particular, such effect of economic stabilization seems to be highly apparent at the time of financial crisis, but not very noticeable in normal economic cycle.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.523-528
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• 2010

With the financial crisis from USA had negative impacts on the real economy, base metals price on LME was downward in 4 quarter of 2008. Following the deepest global downturn in recent history, economic growth solidified and broadened to advanced countries and simultaneously the price of base metal on LME showed a rising curve over 2009. There are three factors supported an upward tendency of base metal's price. The First factor is the US economy recovery, the second factor is the weak dollar, the third factor is the chinese base metal demand. Among the factors, the last one is a major factor. Therefore, this study analyze the factor of the movement of price of base metal with linear regression analysis. The result of analysis show that the chinese GDP growth has effect on the recent upward base metal price. Despite the result, the upward movement is difficult to be sustained without the full recovery of advanced economies.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.471-476
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• 2007

본 논문의 목적은 과거의 산업 포트폴리오 수익률이 확률추세로부터 어떻게 전체 주식시장과 두 가지 거시경제 변수인 경기동행지수와 산업생산 등을 예측할 수 있는 지를 알아보는 데에 있다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 연구모형을 설정한 후 세 가지 검정절차를 제시하고 이를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 당월의 전체 주식시장 수익률은 과거의 시차를 지닌 특정 산업부문 포트폴리오 수익률에 대하여 양(+)의 상관관계를 유지하고 있다는 '예측 1'과 전체 주식시장의 수익률은 특정 산업부문의 수익률에 대하여 선행성을 지닐 수 없다는 '예측 2'에 대한 검정 결과는 '예측 1'과 '예측 2'가 지지되고 있음을 파악할 수 있었다. 그리고 산업별 포트폴리오 수익률과 거시경제변수 간의 높은 상관관계를 토대로 하여 전체주식시장 수익률 예측을 가능하게 하는 업종 정보의 점진적 확산 현상이 발생하게 되는가를 검토하기 위하여 각 산업들의 포트폴리오 수익률과 전체 주식시장 수익률이 VAR모형을 토대로 볼 경우 Granger 인과관계를 갖고 있는 지를 분석하였다. 분석결과 21개 업종은 각 산업별 포트폴리오 수익률이 전체 주식시장 수익률을 5% 수준에서 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 주고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 이들 21개의 산업별 포트폴리오 수익률은 경제적으로도 중요한 의미를 지니고 있어 산업제품의 가격 상승과 하락이 경제에 미치는 영향을 파악할 수 있다. 특히 음료 업종에서 전체 주식시장 수익률과 상호간의 인과성을 나타내었으며, 인터넷과 화장품 업종에서는 전체 주식시장 수익률이 이들 업종에 대하여 일방적인 영향을 보이고 있음을 알 수 있었다.>$mgN\;{\cdot}\;L^{-1}$ 및 0.000-0.804 $mgN\;{\cdot}\;L^{-1}$이였다. 규소농도는 0.0-6.2 $mgSi\;{\cdot}\;L^{-1}$의 범위로 3-5월에 매우 낮았으며, 계절적인 변화가 뚜렷히 나타났다. 저질의 입자는 0-125인 silt및 coarse silt로 이루어져 있으며, COD는 51.4-116.9 $mgO_2\;{\cdot}\;gdw^{-1}$로 평균 93.0 $mgO_2\;{\cdot}\;gdw^{-1}$ 이였다. 저질내의 TP및 TN의 농도는 각각 0.04-1.46 $mgP\;{\cdot}\;gdw^{-1}$ 및 0.12-1.03 $mgN\;{\cdot}\;gdw^{-1}$이었다. 표층의 엽록소 a의 정점별 평균값은 정점 1, 2 및 3에서 각각 15.6, 15.2 및 16.0 $mg\;{\cdot}\;m^{-3}$으로 유사하였다. 식물플랑크톤은 총 49종이 출현하였으며, 생물량은 50-23, 350 cells ${\cdot}\;mL^{-1}$로 2001년 9월에 가장 많았다. 이 시기의 우점종은 녹조류인 Schroederia judayi이였으며, 생물량은 20,417 cells ${\cdot}\;mL^{-1}$이였다. 송지호의 수질을 개선하기 위해서는 인위적으로 화학성층을 파괴시켜 심충에 용존산소를 공급시켜야 할 것으로 판단되며, 모래톱으로 인해 막혀져 있는 해수