• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.543-556
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• 2015

This study made an attempt at the empirical analysis of the influence of domestic, foreign economic changes on economy in Incheon & Incheon International Airport. For this purpose, this study, setting up the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD), Incheon Metropolitan City, and Incheon International Airport as research objects, conducted multi-regression analysis and path analysis of 11-year economic changes after the opening of the Incheon International Airport in 2001. As a research result, it was found that internal, external economic changes didn't show a positive influence on economy in Incheon, and growth & revitalization of the Incheon International Airport while international economic factors showed a directly positive influence on economy in Incheon, but the total effect directly related to Korean economy showed a negative influence. Accordingly, economy in Incheon has to actively cope with home, foreign macroeconomic change factors, and further, the endogenous growth strategy is required; as the methodolog.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.185-223
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• 2008

This paper considers a heterogeneous agent dynamic general equilibrium model and analyzes effects of an increase in labor income tax rate on labor market and the aggregate variables in Korea. The fiscal policy regarding how the government uses the additional tax revenue may take the two forms: 1) general transfer and 2) earned income tax credit (EITC). The model features are as follows: 1) Workers are heterogeneous in their productivity. 2)Labor is indivisible, hence the analysis focuses on the variation in labor supply through the extensive margin in response to a change in fiscal policy. 3) The incomplete markets are introduced, so individual workers can not perfectly insure themselves against risks related to stochastic changes in income or employment status. 4) The model is of general equilibrium, hence it is equiped to analyze the feedback effect of changes in aggregate variables on individual workers' decisions. In the case of general transfer policy, the government equally distributes the additional tax revenue to all workers regardless of their employment states. Under this policy, an increase in the labor income tax rate dampens work incentives of individual workers so that the aggregate employment rate decreases by 1% compared with the benchmark economy. In the case of EITC policy, only employed workers whose labor incomes are below a certain EITC ceiling are eligible for the EITC benefits. Unlike the general transfer policy, the EITC induces low-income workers to participate the labor market to be eligible for EITC benefits. Hence, the aggregate employment rate may increase by 2.7% at the maximum. As the EITC ceiling increases, too many workers can collect the EITC but the benefits per worker becomes too little so that the increase in employment rate is negligible. By and large, this study demonstrates that EITC may effectively raise the aggregate employment rate, and that it can be a useful policy tool in response to the decrease in the labor force due to population aging as observed in Korea recently.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.100-137
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• 2019

In this study, I analyzed the effects of government spending on macro variables and on each industry by using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) and 167 macro-variables in Korea since 2000. The results reveal that the effects of two types of government spending - government consumption and government investment - greatly differ, therefore it is better to consider the two types of spending separately for a more precise analysis. The stimulus effects of government consumption are clear, but those of government investment are not. In addition, the crowding-out effects of government spending take place through the current account deficit channel rather than the traditional crowding-out channel, reducing private consumption and investment. Both types of government spending show a positive effect on the construction industry. Also, an increase in government consumption stimulates output in various manufacturing and service sectors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.639-653
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• 2020

Baker et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134, 1593-1636, 2016) developed an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for South Korea in the same way as the U.S. EPU Index. However, the South Korean EPU index of Baker et al. (2016) has limitations as it did not fully reflect South Korean situation in terms of keyword selection and the selection of newspapers. We develop monthly South Korean economic policy uncertainty indexes with different keywords and news media. Various analyses have been conducted in order to examine the usefulness of the newly compiled indexes.

• 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2021.04a
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• pp.125-130
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• 2021

코로나19 팬데믹은 삶의 많은 부분을 변화시켰다. 국가 간 통제 및 사회적 거리두기로 인한 직접적인 만남이 제한되고, 우리 생활의 많은 영역이 비대면으로 전환되었다. 이런 상황에서 의사소통 및 사회적, 경제적 교류를 위한 대안으로 레거시 미디어콘텐츠의 퇴조와 함께 소셜미디어 등의 뉴미디어 콘텐츠를 활용한 경제활동이 이루어지고 있다. 미디어콘텐츠를 기반한 경제 생태계는 복잡해지고 있으며, 플랫폼 간 경쟁 또한 매우 치열해지는 상황이다. 급속하게 변하고 있는 디지털 환경의 사회 구조는 경제 전반에 큰 영향을 주고 있으며, 경제활동을 지속하려는 개인과 정책지원을 하는 국가에도 중요한 현안이 되어 있다. 고령화 사회로의 빠른 진입으로 인적 자본의 활용 문제가 대두되고, 코로나19로 인한 경제불황이 대면 경제활동을 크게 위축시키면서 고용 감소와 불안정성이 대두되었다. 그에 따라 비대면 산업이 활성화되고, 플랫폼 산업 등 미디어콘텐츠 기반의 새로운 경제활동이 주목받고 일상화되었다. 또한 미디어콘텐츠 기반 비즈니스에 실효성 있는 인적 자본 활용이 국가의 주요 정책이 되었다. 따라서 본 연구는 미디어콘텐츠 활용과 신 정보화 도구를 활용한 디지털 역량이 경제활동 지속 의도에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대하여 실증적으로 분석하고 검증하여 실무적 시사점을 제시하고자 한다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.63-77
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• 1992

This paper examined interactions between stock price and key macroeconomic variables over the period of 1975-1992. It has been found that more than 60% of real stock price changes can be well explained by movements in key macroeconomic variables, particularly in net exports and industrial production. On the other hand, real stock price changes were found to have a significant explanatory power for plant and equipment investments for the sample period of 1975-1985 during which the stock market was stable. In contrast, no significant linkage between stock price changes and investments emerged over the subsample period of 1986-92 despite the sharp expansion of the stock market in terms of trade volume. Based on such findings, two major policy implications were derived; (i) the government's intervention in the stock market to stabilize stock prices would be ineffective unless the stable economic growth supports the market fundamental, and (ii) the stock price stability is a precondition for the stock market to play a key role in mobilizing resources to finance the firm's long-term capital.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.117-133
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• 2007

This paper evaluates the efficiency of monetary policy in Korea within the framework of interest rate feedback rules. For this, a small open macroeconomic model is constructed in a similar fashion to Ball (1999). The model is shown to capture key features of the Korean economy well. Using this estimated model, optimal instrument rules are derived for a set of different monetary policy objectives. Empirical results find that the actual monetary policy in the class of instrument rules was not very effective in stabilizing the output gap relative to inflation. However, seemingly successful inflation stabilization observed in the data are not consistent with the policy rules as the reaction of the interest rate to inflation is very low. It also appears that the central bank did not react right to movements in the real exchange rate. This paper offers some suggestions for the conduct of monetary policy in Korea.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.95-129
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• 1998

한국은 1990년대에 들어서면서 자본이동을 자유화함에 따라 환율의 급격한 변동을 경험하고 있으며 이로 인하여 원유수입가격(原油輸入價格)의 변동을 경험하고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 원유수입가격의 변동이 수출입에 주는 효과를 분석하기 위하여 1990년부터 1996년까지의 수요 중심의 월별 거시모형을 구축하여 국제원유가격변동으로 인한 원유수입가격 변동효과와 환율 변동으로 인한 원유수입가격 변동효과를 분석하였다. 분석 결과에 의하면 수출의 경우 국제원유가격 상승시는 단기에 -0.06% 감소하다가 그 효과가 없어지는 데 비해, 환율 상승시는 단기에 -1.84% 감소하다가 장기에 0.36%까지 증가하는 J-curve 현상을 보이고 있다. 원유수입(原油輸入)의 경우 국제원유가격 상승시는 원유(原油)가 비경쟁적 수입이므로 단기에 3.91% 증가하여 장기까지 그 수준을 유지하며, 환율 상승시는 수출과 산업생산의 영향으로 단기에 -7.5%까지 감소하다가 점차 증가하여 장기에는 0.39%까지 증가하는 추세를 보이고 있다. 원유외수입(原油外輸入)의 경우도 국제원유가격 상승시에는 장기에 -0.35% 감소하나 환율 상승시에는 수출과 산업생산의 영향으로 단기에 -4.60%까지 감소하고 장기에는 -0.15% 감소하고 있다. 결국 원유를 포함한 수출입은 국제원유가격 상승시보다 환율 변동시 더 큰 변동을 보이고 있음을 알 수 있다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.81-98
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• 2006

Many studies on port tariff have been done over twenty years using publicly assessed data on tariff. Public data for tariff rates do not reflect, however, the port tariff in a real market, since the cargo handling charge, which is the important fraction of port tariff, is confidentially decided by the negotiations between a shipping company and a container terminal operator. In this paper, we collected the real price data of the port tariff on the world major sixteen container ports from a global shipping company and transformed it into the tariff per TEU(US$/TEU). The comparative analysis of port tariff was performed using the port tariff per TEU, and a panel regression analysis was done to identify the relations between the port tariff and demand variables: throughput, GDP and trade amount.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.19-24
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• 2020

Artificial intelligence technology, which is the core of the 4th industrial revolution, is making intelligent judgments through deep learning techniques and machine learning that it is impossible to predict if it is applied to stock prediction beyond human capabilities. In US fund management companies, artificial intelligence is replacing the role of stock market analyst, and research in this field is actively underway. In this study, we use BLSTM to reduce errors that occur in unidirectional prediction of the existing LSTM method, reduce errors in predictions by predicting in both directions, and macroscopic indicators that affect stock prices, namely, economic growth rate, economic indicators, interest rate, analyze the trade balance, exchange rate, and volume of currency. To help stock investment by accurately predicting the target price of stocks by analyzing the PBR, BPS, and ROE of individual stocks after analyzing macro-indicators, and by analyzing the purchase and sale quantities of foreigners, institutions, pension funds, etc., which have the most influence on stock prices.