• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.71-85
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.77-95
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• 2011

This paper investigates the relationship between export and economic variables such as trade insurance, world economy activity, relative price, unemployment rate, exchange rate volatility, using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between export and variables. Also, the empirical analysis of cointegrating vector using the CCR, DOLS, FMOLS reveals that the increases of trade insurance has positive relations and the increases of exchange rate volatility have negative relations with export. Especially, DOLS based on Monte Carlo simulations, of this estimator being superior in small samples compared to a number of alternative estimators, as well as being able not only to accommodate higher orders of integration but also to account for possible simultaneity within regressors of a potential system. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get the additional information regarding the responses of the export to the shocks of the variables. The result indicates that export positively to trade insurance and then decay fast compare with exchange rate volatility. Consequently, trade insurance plays the role of trade policy for export promotion in Korea. Whereas, increase of exchange risk result in reduction of export. Therefore, the support of trade insurance should be expanded and the stabilization of the foreign exchange market must be done for the export promotion.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.338-341
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• 2001

본 연구는 현재 정부의 규제완화 및 다양한 대체서비스의 등장으로 인해 점차 시장내 경쟁이 심화되어 가고 있는 기업용 전용선 서비스 시장에 있어 향후 경쟁상황이 어떻게 진행될지에 대한 연구를 통하여 이에 속한 기업들의 향후 시장전략을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 향후 경쟁상황을 예측하는데 있어 본 연구에서는 사용하는 방법론으로 첫째, 기업용 전용선 서비스 시장의 전체 수요예측을 우선적으로 실시한 후 둘째, 전체 시장의 수요를 바탕으로 이에 속하는 개별 서비스간의 경쟁관계와 대체관계에 의한 개별 서비스 수요를 예측하게 된다. 이상과 같은 서비스간의 수요를 도출함으로써 시장내 경쟁상황과 경쟁정도를 파악하게 된다. 현재 기업용 전용선 서비스 시장의 경우 가장 큰 특징이 바로 신규 대체 서비스들의 등장이고, 이들 서비스에 의해 전체 시장규모가 얼마나 성장할 것인지, 전체 시장에서 개별 서비스들의 기여도는 어느 정도가 되는지가 최대 관심사이다. 이에 대한 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 연구에서는 신규 대체 서비스가 시장에 진입하였을 때 파급효과가 얼마나 되는지를 추정하여 수요를 예측하였다. 이에 대한 추정결과 연구대상으로 하고 있는 전용회선서비스, 프레임릴레이서비스, 가상사설망서비스에서 전용회선서비스에 대한 타 유사서비스들의 영향력은 그리 크지 않는 것으로 나타났으며, 이에 반해 가상사설망서비스는 프레임릴레이서비스를 대체하고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 연구 결과를 통해 사업자들은 향후 시장경쟁 상황을 예측할 수 있기 때문에 이에 대해 적절한 사업전략을 수립하는데 큰 도움을 얻게 되리라 기대한다.적 분할납품 전략 적용 수요지로 선택하고 사이버 거래를 통해 생성된 물류가 부분적 분할납품 전략 적용 수요지에 분배되게 함으로써 각 분배 센타의 재고 완충역할을 수행하게 한다. 이에 따라 안전 재고 및 역 배송을 최소화 할 수 있을 뿐 아니라 미 출고로 인한 손실을 최소화하며 고객의 서비스를 일정하게 유지시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.증진, 페기물 발생 억제 분야에 상당한 성공을 거두었으며, 지금도 지속적으로 유지 관리 및 미비한 부분(CAER, 등)의 향상에 노력하고 있다. Dow Korea의 수입 판매 부분에 주로 관련된 Product Stewardship 및 Distribution Code는 여러 사업부 및 여러 지역(미국, 유럽, 아시아 등)에 위치한 담당자가 관련된 까닭에 가장 복잡한 부분이어서 많은 인력과 시간을 소비하면서 노력하고 있으나 아직까지 소정의 목표에 도달하지 못했으며, 2000년 말에 모든 실행지침이 실행되도록 목표, 실행 계획 및 조직을 수정하여 노력하고 있다.lumn density at distant position from MD5 is larger than that in the (:entral region. We have deduced that this hot-core has a mass of 10sR1 which i:s about an order of magnitude larger those obtained by previous studies.previous studies.업순서들의 상관관계를 고려하여 보다 개선된 해를 구하기 위한 연구가 요구된다. 또한, 준비작업비용

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1460-1466
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to verify how the accounting information of a bankrupt firm which is defined as a dishonor, an impaired total capital, a poor financial performance of a business, a rejection of auditor's opinion and an incongruity of auditor's opinion differs from that of a healthy firm on the basis of the index of financial affairs if the accounting information released by KOSDAQ is valuable. The sampling firms consists of 45 KOSDAQ firms that went bankrupt from 2000 to 2007 and 45 healthy firms which are selected in accordance with the sizes of assets. It has also selected the 30 sampling firms for the confirmation of the model in the same way. According to the result of the in-depth analysis, the variables related to security among the 17 indexes of financial affairs that have been used in this study for 5 years show a noticeable difference between a bankrupt firm and a healthy one. The accuracy of failed firms using this model for confirmation demonstrates 76.7% in 5 years before the bankruptcy, 76.7% in 4 years before that, 65.0% in 3 years before it, 76.7% in 2 years, 88.3% in 1 year. This data shows that the process from a healthy firm to a bankrupt one has progressed gradually and confirms the value of the index of financial affairs, exhibiting the accuracy with 83.8% of a presuming sample and 76.7% of a confirming sample for 5 years.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.277-287
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• 2015

This paper addresses limitations of land-change modeling application in the context of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). REDD is an international conservation policy that aims to protect forests via carbon credit generation and trading. In REDD, carbon credits are generated only if there is measurable quantied carbon sequestration activities that are additional to business-as-usual (BAU). A "reference level" is defined as simulated baseline carbon emissions for the future under a BAU scenario, and predictive land-change modeling plays an important role in constructing reference levels. It is tested in this research how predictive accuracies of two land-change models, namely Geographic Emission Benchmark (GEB) and GEOMOD, vary with respect to different spatial scales: Xishuangbanna prefecture and Yunnan province. The accuracies are measured by Figure of Merit. In this Chinese case study, it turns out that GEB's better performance is mainly due to quantity (e.g., how many hectares of forest will be converted to agricultural land?) rather than spatial allocation (e.g., where will the conversion happen?). As both quantity and allocation are crucial in REDD reference level setting it appears to be fundamental to systematically analyze accuracies of quantity and allocation independently in pursuit of accurate reference levels.

• Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.473-505
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• 2001

예측 기관에 따라서 B2B의 시장 규모 및 성장률에 대한 차이는 있지만 B2B 시장이 빠른 속도로 성장하고 있으며, 이 같은 추세는 계속될 것이라는 점에 대한 이견은 없는 편이다. B2B는 기업에게 비용 절감과 시간 절약, 업무 효율성 증대 등의 다양한 효과를 제공해 줄 수 있기 때문에 앞으로도 그 중요성은 더 커질 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 B2B의 중요성 및 성장세와는 별도로 아직까지 B2B에 참여하는 기업들이 큰 효과를 거두지 못하고 있는 것이 사실이다. 이에 따라 많은 학자들과 컨설팅 회사들이 B2B의 모형, 추진 전략, 성공 요인들을 다양한 각도에서 제시하고 있다. 하지만 B2B에 대한 실증적 연구가 부족하여, 기업의 실무자들이 실질적인 도움을 얻기에는 부족한 점이 있기 때문에 B2B의 성공 요인과 추진 전략에 대한 실증적 연구가 절실히 필요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 B2B 유형 중 가장 널리 활용되고 있는 MRO e-marketplace의 성공에 영향을 주는 요인들을 실증적으로 분석하는 것이다. MRO e-marketplace의 성공 요인을 환경적 특성, 제품 특성, B2B 사이트 특성 등 3 그룹으로 분류한 후, 38개 기업에서 수집된 설문지를 분석하여 MRO e-marketplace의 성공 요인을 실증적으로 분석하였다. MRO e-marketplace의 성공 요인들을 요인 분석한 결과, 기업 내부 환경 요인, 기업 외부 환경 요인, 제품 정보 요인, 제품 공급 능력 요인, 사이트 기본 기능 요인, 사이트 편의성 요인, 사이트 보안성 요인 등 총 8개 요인으로 분류되었다. 한편 MRO e-marketplace의 도입 효과를 측정한 비용 절감, 시간 절약, 업무 효율성 증대, 거래 투명성 증대 등의 4개의 문항은 하나의 요인으로 묶여, 이를 MRO e-marketplace 성공으로 정의하였다. MRO e-marketplace의 성공에 영향을 미치는 요인을 찾기 위해, 추출된 8개 요인과 MRO e-marketplace 성공 간의 상관 관계를 분석하였다. 8개 요인 중에서 기업 내부 환경 요인, 제품 공급 능력 요인, 사이트 기본 기능 요인이 MRO e-marketplace의 성공에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 MRO e-marketplace 성공 요인들의 상대적 중요도를 파악하기 위해 회귀 분석을 실시하였는데, 참여 기업의 내부 환경 요인이 가장 큰 중요한 것으로 나타났고, 그 다음은 제품 공급 능력 요인과 사이트 기본 기능 요인으로 나타났다. 이 같은 실증적 결과는 MRO e-marketplace나 B2B의 성공을 위해서는 참여 기업의 내부 환경 조성이 매우 중요함을 시사해 준다. 또한 참여 기업의 제품 공급 능력 요인 역시 MRO e-marketplace의 성공에 직접적인 영향을 주기 때문에 공급기업들의 제품 공급 능력을 높이는데 노력해야 한다. 또한 MRO e-marketplace를 운영하는 기업들은 사이트의 기능을 높이는데 많은 노력을 기울여야 한다는 것을 시사하고 있다. MRO e-marketplace의 성공 요인을 실증적으로 분석한 본 연구의 결과는 MRO e-marketplace와 B2B의 추진 전략의 이론적 모형 개발에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 본 연구의 결과는 MRO e-marketplace와 B2B의 성공을 높이기 위한 추진 전략을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.79-110
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• 2016

Purpose Online Peer-to-peer lending (hereafter P2P lending), is a new method of lending money to unrelated individuals through an online financial intermediary. Usually in the online P2P transaction, individuals who would like to borrow money (hereafter borrowers) and those who would like to lend money (hereafter lenders) have no previous relationship. Based on enormous previous studies, this study develops an integrated model, particularly for the online P2P lending environment in China, to better understand the critical factors that influence lenders' intention to lend money through the online P2P lending platform. Design/methodology/approach In order to verify the hypotheses, we develop a questionnaire with 42 survey items. We measured all the items on a five-point Likert-type scale. We use Sojump.com to collect questionnaire and gather 246 valid responses from registered members of Renrendai.com. We analyzed the main survey data by using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 20.0. We first estimated the reliability, validity, composite reliability and AVE and then conduct common method bias test. The mediating role of trust in platform and in borrower has been tested. Last we tested the hypotheses through the structural model. Findings The results reveal that service quality, information quality, structural assurance, awareness and reputation significantly impact lenders' trust in the online P2P lending platform. Second, awareness, reputation and perceived risk significantly impact lenders' trust in borrower and lending intention. Third, trust propensity has a positive effect on lenders' trust on borrower. Last, awareness, reputation, perceived risk, platform trust and borrower trust can directly impact lenders' lending intention.

• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.17-42
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• 2016

Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Interpretation No. 48 (FIN 48), Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes: An interpretation of FASB Statement No. 109, requires firms to evaluate uncertain tax positions and disclose information on their liabilities for these positions, unrecognized tax benefits (UTBs). We analyze the FIN 48 disclosures for calendar-year-end Korean companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ and examine the Korean firms' tax aggressiveness utilizing the UTBs. The results suggest that stock exchange and firm size do not play a role in the Korean firms' tax aggressiveness, contrary to the matched U.S. firms and that the Korean firm in the miscellaneous retail industry is more tax aggressive than the firms in the communications, depository institutions and business services. In addition, we find evidence that the Korean firms are less tax aggressive than the matched U.S. firms. We also examine the Korean firms' tax avoidance tendencies using other measures of avoidance, leading to mixed results. Finally, we examine the association between the UTBs and other measures of tax avoidance and find a significant and negative association between the UTBs and the long-run cash effective tax rate.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.10
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• pp.4359-4368
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• 2011

Among several macroeconomic missteps blamed for the recent global financial crisis including the social problems of income distribution and the lack of proper financial remedies, two of them have received particular attention: the global BOP(Balance of Payment) imbalance and the misguided monetary policy. Such BOP imbalance was blamed for massive foreign exchange investment flows from Asia into the U.S., triggering the financial and real estate bubble in America. The latter refers to the excessively loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which pushed financial institutions and households into reckless investment behavior in search of higher returns. Given the abuse of certain innovative financial techniques and new investment instruments that have been created in recent decades, both collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS) enjoyed a symbiotic and toxic relationship prior to the financial crisis This paper is organized as follows: The first section analyzes the real causes of the recent financial crisis. The second details the role of CDOs and CDS. Then, to identify key determinants of the CDS spreads in an emerging capital market, the sample data of major Korean firms' CDS spreads are used to estimate the risk premium by utilizing the multiple regression analysis. The empirical test result indicates that Korean 3-year treasury bond rate(TYIELD), market to book value ratio(MV/BV), and assets size(INASSETS) are shown to demonstrate statistically significant influences on the changes of the CDS premium for sample firms.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.9
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• pp.301-309
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• 2020

Defense exports have overgrown in a short period, and items have been diversified with advanced high-end equipment, but exports have been stagnant due to the global economic recession and fierce competition. Weapons importers in the global market are diversified, volatility is higher, and global defense companies are also expanding their global value chain (GVC) By participating in the GVC of a global defense company, the defense SME can grow into a competitive company with specialized technology, rather than participating as a partner of a domestic system company. It is time to prepare an export promotion support plan. In this study, we selected five global companies with high value for the implementation of offset and general considerations on domestic SMEs' entry into the international parts supply chain and related cases, and investigated GVC entry requirements, the current status of cooperation partners, and the perceptions of GVC entry, through local surveys in Korea and overseas. Also, by considering the export target comprehensively, GVC stage, and the level of export competitiveness of domestic SMEs, strategies for promoting GVC participation of defense SMEs and improvements in government policies were derived and presented.