• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.735-743
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• 2011

This study analyzes inbound and outbound Korea tourism data through an intervention model. For the analysis, we adopt three intervention factors: (1) IMF bailout crisis in December 1997, (2) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) outbreak in March 2003, and (3) Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. The empirical results show that only the SARS factor lowered inbound tourism from April 2003 with a drastic decline in May 2003 and gradually decaying since then. However, all three factors significantly lowered tourism in the case of outbound tourism. Especially, the effect of the IMF is shown to be permanent from December 1997 and the effects of SARS and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy abrupt and temporary with a gradual decay.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.471-472
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• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 대학무용전공자를 위한 진로개입 실태를 분석하고 이에 대한 발전방향을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 문헌 분석과 설문조사를 실시하였다. 대학무용전공자를 위한 진로개입은 외형적으로 확대된 모습을 보이고 있으나 체계적인 진로개입을 위한 접근 방안은 제시되지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이를 토대로 대학 무용전공자를 위한 진로개입 발전 방안으로 무용직업군 직업표준체계, 진로흥미검사지, 진로교육 콘텐츠를 도출하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.293-303
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• 2003

Under the case that we know the period and the reason of external events, we reviewed the method of model identification, parameter estimation and model diagnosis with the former papers that have been studied about the linear time series model with intervention, and compared with nonlinear time series model such as ARCH, GARCH model that it has been used widely in economic models, and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.469-480
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• 2017

On April 1, 2004, KTX (Korea Train eXpress), the first HSR (High-Speed Rail) in Korea, was introduced to Gyeongbu Line. The introduction of the KTX service led to a change in the number of passengers for Gyeongbu Line. Previous studies have analyzed the pre and post-event changes of the intervening events by either simple statistics or intervention ARIMA analysis. However, the intervention ARIMA model has a limitation that several assumptions such as the occurrence time and the type of intervention events are necessary. To this end, this study analyzed the effects of intervention event on the number of passengers using the Gyeongbu line based on a time series outlier detection technique which can overcome limitations in the previous studies. The time series outlier detection technique can analyze the time, effect type and size of an intervention event without the assumption of the time and effect type of the intervention event. The data were collected from the Korea Transport Database (KTDB) for twelve years from 2003 to 2014 (144 months). The analysis results showed that the size of the influence type in the same intervention events was different across the major city routes, and the intervention event which could not be found by previous study methods was also found.

• 한국정보교육학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.08a
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• pp.633-639
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• 2004

본 연구는 웹의 비동기적 상호작용의 하나인 게시판의 교육적 효과에 대해 연구하는데 있다. 전자게시판의 활용은 주로 학생 상호간의 의사소통 수단으로 활용되어 왔다. 본 논문은 교사의 개입이 없는 방임형 게시판과 교사가 직접 개입하는 교사 개입형 게시판의 의사소통 능력과 상호작용의 질적 수준을 학습효과라는 관점에서 분석한다. 내용 분석을 위한 적절한 도구를 고안하고 교사 개입의 방법과 수준 등에 대한 논의를 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.250-251
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• 2012

지난 15년간 한국경제는 두 번의 금융위기인 1997년의 아시아 금융위기와 2008년의 글로벌 금융위기로 인해 엄청난 경제손실을 입었다. 이와 같이 우리 경제의 고유한 문제이기 보다는 외부에서 발생한 일련의 사건들은 GDP와 같은 국내 거시경제지표들뿐만 아니라 국내 항만들의 컨테이너처리물동량에도 많은 영향을 주었다. 본 연구에서 두 번의 금융위기를 독립적이며 상이한 형태의 외부의 영향으로 가정한 뒤, 국내 항만들의 컨테이너처리물동량에 어떤 영향을 주었는지에 대한 개입분석을 수행한다. 그래서 각기 다른 충격들에 대한 컨테이너처리량을 변화와 함께 그 충격들 간의 특성규명을 통해 우리나라 항만산업에 다양한 시사점을 제공하고자 한다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.165-181
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• 1998

1987년 10월 미국의 주가폭락과 1990년대 일본주식시장의 지속적 침체 이후로 미국과 일본 등의 주식시장에서는 주식시장의 변동성 증대 및 침체의 원인으로서 주가지수선물이 주목받기 시작하였다. 1987년 주가대폭락을 연구한 브레디보고서에는 주가지수선물과 이를 이용한 포트폴리오보험전략이 주가폭락의 한 요인으로 지목되고 있으며, 일본의 경우 장기적인 주식시장 침체가 주가지수선물에 기인한다는 생각이 일반화되어 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라에서 1996년 5월 3일부터 시작된 주가지수선물거래 도입이 주식시장에 미치는 개입효과를 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구의 목적을 위하여 Box와 Tiao(1975)에 의해 제시된 개입분석모형(intervention analysis model)을 이용하여 분석한 결과 개입의 효과가 전체 모형 설정에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 우리나라의 경우 주가지수선물거래 도입이 주식시장에 미치는 개입효과는 미미하다고 할 수 있다.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1-16
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine how the Korean government has intervened in the venture capital market so far and empirically investigate whether the government's policies on venture capital have stimulated venture capital's early-stage investment. To this end, this study classified the government's market intervention in the venture capital market by stage by studying the related literature and applying and analyzing the case in Korea. And, this study empirically analyzed the effectiveness of the Korean government's policy to revitalize the early-stage investment of venture capital, which is the most important purpose of government intervention. For empirical analysis, yearly data from 2004 to 2018 provided by the Korea Venture Capital Association and Korea Fund of Funds were analyzed using time series statistical analysis and macrodynamics. As a result of the case study, the Korean government has intervened in the venture capital market through direct investment for 25 years, and has been intervening through indirect investment for the next 18 years. As a result of time-series statistical analysis, the government's fiscal investment to increase the formation of venture capital funds and the increase in the ratio of special-purpose funds that mandate a certain percentage of early-stage investment increased the early-stage investment of venture capital. However, macrodynamics showed a trend in the opposite direction from this time series statistical analysis from 2016. In conclusion, this study interprets the trend in the opposite direction to the time series statistical analysis results as the government's erroneous regulation on the venture capital investment method and the recent lack of effectiveness of direct intervention through the government's indirect investment method. In addition, based on the results of case studies and empirical studies, this study made six policy proposals necessary for indirect government intervention.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10b
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• pp.392-394
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• 2000

본 논문에서는 DNA칩 이미지 처리시스템을 위한 완전 그리딩 알고리즘을 제안한다. DNA칩 이미지를 분석하여 처리할 수 있는 많은 DNA칩 분석 시스템이 있다. 하지만 이전의 시스템들은 정확한 이미지 처리를 통한 올바른 유전자 발현정보를 얻기 위해서 많은 사용자의 개입이 필요한 단점이 있었다. 본 논문에서는 사용자의 개입이 없는 정확한 자동 이미지 처리를 위해서, $\varepsilon$-그래프 모델링 기법을 제시하고, MBR, Mass, Geometry 등 세가지 종류의 반점(spot) 중심을 이용한 완전 그리딩 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제시된 이미지 처리 기술은 완전한 자동 DNA칩 분석 시스템으로, 사용자의 개입없이도 정확한 DNA칩 위치 정보를 얻을 수 있다.

• 한국노년학
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.173-200
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• 2017

This study is designed to verify the actual effect on the prevention of the elderly suicide of the integrated crisis intervention service which has been widely provided across all local communities in Gyeonggi-province focusing on the integrated crisis intervention model developed for the prevention of elderly suicide. The integrated crisis intervention model for the local communities and its manual were developed for the prevention of elderly suicide by integrating the crisis intervention theory which contains local community's integrated system approach and the stress vulnerability theory. For the analysis of the effect, the geriatric depression and suicidal ideation scale was adopted and the data was collected as follows; The data was collected from 258 people in the first preliminary test. Then, it was collected from the secondary test of 184 people after the integrated crisis intervention service was performed for 6 months. The third collection of data was made from 124 people after 2 or 3 years later using the backward tracing method. As for the analysis, the researcher used the R Statistics computing to conduct the test equating, and the vertical scaling between measuring points. Then, the researcher conducted descriptive statistics analysis and univariate analysis of variance, and performed multi-level modeling analysis using Bayesian estimation. As a result of the study, it was found out that the integrated crisis intervention model which has been developed for the elderly suicide prevention has a statistically significant effect on the reduction of elderly suicide in terms of elderly depression and suicide ideation in the follow-up measurement after the implementation of crisis intervention rather than in the first preliminary scores. The integrated crisis intervention model for the prevention of elderly suicide was found to be effective to the extent of 0.56 for the reduction of depression and 0.39 for the reduction of suicidal ideation. However, it was found out in the backward tracing test conducted 2-3 years after the first crisis intervention that the improved values returned to its original state, thus showing that the effect of the intervention is not maintained for long. Multilevel analysis was conducted to find out the factors such as the service type(professional counseling, medication, peer counseling), characteristics of the client (sex, age), the characteristics of the counselor(age, career, major) and the interaction between the characteristics of the counselor and intervention which affect depression and suicidal ideation. It was found that only medication can significantly reduce suicidal ideation and that if the counselor's major is counseling, it significantly further reduces suicidal ideation by interacting with professional counseling. Furthermore, as the characteristics of the suicide prevention experts are found to regulate the intervention effect on elderly suicide prevention in applying integrated crisis intervention model, the primary consideration should be given to the counseling ability of these experts.