• 제목/요약/키워드: 강우빈도

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Accounting for zero flows in probabilistic distributed hydrological modeling for ephemeral catchment (무유출의 고려를 통한 간헐하천 유역에 확률기반의 격자형 수문모형의 구축)

  • Lee, DongGi;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.437-450
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    • 2020
  • This study presents a probabilistic distributed hydrological model for Ephemeral catchment, where zero flow often occurs due to the influence of distinct climate characteristics in South Korea. The gridded hydrological model is developed by combining the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) runoff model with a routing model. In addition, an error model is employed to represent a probabilistic hydrologic model. To be specific, the hydrologic model is coupled with a censoring error model to properly represent the features of ephemeral catchments. The performance of the censoring error model is evaluated by comparing it with the Gaussian error model, which has been utilized in a probabilistic model. We first address the necessity to consider ephemeral catchments through a review of the extensive research conducted over the recent decade. Then, the Yongdam Dam catchment is selected for our study area to confirm the usefulness of the hydrologic model developed in this study. Our results indicate that the use of the censored error model provides more reliable results, although the two models considered in this study perform reliable results. In addition, the Gaussian model delivers many negative flow values, suggesting that it occasionally offers unrealistic estimations in hydrologic modeling. In an in-depth analysis, we find that the efficiency of the censored error model may increase as the frequency of zero flow increases. Finally, we discuss the importance of utilizing the censored error model when the hydrologic model is applied for ephemeral catchments in South Korea.

Development of Wetershed Runoff Index for Major Control Points of Geum River Basin Using RRFS (RRFS에 의한 금강수계의 주요지점별 유역유출지표 개발)

  • Lee, Hyson-Gue;Hwang, Man-Ha;Koh, Ick-Hwan;Maeng, Seung-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.140-151
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we attempted to develop a watershed runoff index subject to main control points by dividing the Geum River basin into 14 sub-basins. The Yongdam multipurpose dam Daecheong multipurpose dam and Gongju gage station were selected to serve as the main control points of the Geum River basin, and the observed flow of each control point was calculated by the discharge rating curve, whereas the simulated flow was estimated using the Rainfall Runoff Forecasting System (RRFS), user-interfaced software developed by the Korea Water Corporation, based on the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. This study consisted of the daily unit observed flow and the simulated flow of the accumulated moving average flow by daily, 5-days, 10-days, monthly, quarterly and annually, and normal monthly/annually flow. We also performed flow duration analysis for each of the accumulated moving average and the normal monthly/annually flows by unit period, and abundant flow, ordinary flow, low flow and drought flow estimated by each flow duration analysis were utilized as watershed runoff index by main control points. Further, as we determined the current flow by unit period and the normal monthly/annually flow through the drought and flood flow analysis subject to each flow we were able to develop the watershed runoff index in a system that can be used to determine the abundance and scarcity of the flow at the corresponding point.

Characteristics of Sewage Flow in Sewer Pipes Deposited with Cohesive and Non-cohesive Solids (점착성 및 비점착성 고형물이 퇴적된 관로 내 하수흐름의 특성 조사)

  • Lee, Taehoon;Kang, Byongjun;Park, Kyoohong
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.153-159
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    • 2020
  • In order to find out the condition of flow in sewer pipes, this study investigated the characteristics of tractive force of sewage flow estimated using actual measured values of water level, velocity, and flowrate in sewers located at uppermost portion in a treatment area during dry weather periods. When the scene of sewage flow was taken by CCTV after cohesive and non-cohesive solids (tofu and sand) were put on the sewer invert, it was found that the solids could be flushed without significant interruption. In sewer with slope of 0.00319, the frequency exceeding the minimum tractive force of sewage during a weekday was zero, while it was 10 per day with slope of 0.00603. During the week of the field observation, the event to exceed the minimum tractive force occurred once, suggesting that sewer odor would potentially increase. Maximum tractive force in sewer with steep slope was 2.9-3.1 N/㎡, but with gentle slope it decreased to 1.6-1.7N/㎡. It was also observed that the interval of time maintained below the criterion of minimum tractive force increased, during weekends compared to weekdays and for the sewage including non-cohesive particles which could enter combined sewers during a storm period. This study found that the sewer sediments formed by direct feces input into sewers, through sewer pipes which were designed meeting the standard sewer design criteria, could be flushed without staying as deposited solids state for a long time.

Developing Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using Meteorological Characteristics (기상자료(氣象資料)를 이용(利用)한 산불발생확률모형(發生確率模型)의 개발(開發))

  • Choi, Kwan;Han, Sang Yoel
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.85 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 1996
  • Preparing the era of forest resources management requires studies on forest fire. This study attempted to develop forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purposes of forecasting forest fire danger rate. To accomplish this goal, the relationships between forest fire occurrence and meteorological characteristics are estimated. In the process, the forest fire occurrence pattern of the study region(Taegu-Kyungpook) is categorized by employing qualification IV method. The study region was divided into three areas such as, Taegu, Andong and Pohang area. The meteorological variables emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are relative humidity, longitude of sunshine, and duration of precipitation. To estimate the probability of forest fire danger, forest fire occurrence of three areas are regressed on the time series data of affective meteorological variables using logistic and probit model. The effectiveness of the models estimated are tested and showed acceptable degree of goodness. Those models developed would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as detection of forest fire occurrence and effective disposition of forest fire fight equipments.

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Characteristics of the Inundation and Process of Making a Flood Map According to the Levee Break Conditions in Urban Stream - Jungrang Experimental Basin - (제방붕괴조건에 따른 도시하천의 홍수범람 특성 및 홍수지도 작성 - 중랑천 시험유역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jong-Tae;Hur, Sung-Chul;Kim, Jeong-Hoi;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.383-394
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    • 2006
  • This study is for the inundation damage analysis caused by levee break, and for the applicability of GIS tool to make inundation map in the Jungrang stream basin which is one of the representative urbanized area in Korea. The FLDWAV was applied to the actual flood in 1998 to calibrate the parameters, and was used under the flood conditions of 100, 200 years and PMF for the analysis of inundation caused by the levee breach. As the conditions of the levee break, the duration of break(10, 30, 60 min), the width of break(10, 20, 30m) and the location of the break are considered. We found out that the range and the volume of the inundation are strongly influenced by the location of the levee break, the break width in order. And, we compared the two processes of making the inundation map using WMS and ArcView model. The Process 1 which use only WMS has the benefit by its simplicity but there could be considerable errors in making the inundation map, while Process 2 where the ArcView model is introduced to WMS has the capability of making detailed topography map but needs more process time. This study could contribute to levee breach flood analysis and making flood map to establish the EAP(Emergency Action Plan) in the urban basin.

Prediction of a Debris Flow Flooding Caused by Probable Maximum Precipitation (가능 최대강수량에 의한 토석류 범람 예측)

  • Kim, Yeon-Joong;Yoon, Jung-Sung;Kohji, Tanaka;Hur, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, debris flow disaster has occurred in multiple locations between high and low mountainous areas simultaneously with a flooding disaster in urban areas caused by heavy and torrential rainfall due to the changing global climate and environment. As a result, these disasters frequently lead to large-scale destruction of infrastructures or individual properties and cause psychological harm or human death. In order to mitigate these disasters more effectively, it is necessary to investigate what causes the damage with an integrated model of both disasters at once. The objectives of this study are to analyze the mechanism of debris flow for real basin, to determine the PMP and run-off discharge due to the DAD analysis, and to estimate the influence range of debris flow for fan area according to the scenario. To analyse the characteristics of debris flow at the real basin, the parameters such as the deposition pattern, deposit thickness, approaching velocity, occurrence of sediment volume and travel length are estimated from DAD analysis. As a results, the peak time precipitation is estimated by 135 mm/hr as torrential rainfall and maximum total amount of rainfall is estimated by 544 mm as typhoon related rainfall.

Proposal of Design Criteria on Multi-functional Tunnel for the Urban Traffic Tunnel to Flooding Bypass (도심지 홍수저감과 교통량 분담을 위한 다기능 대심도 터널 설계 기준 방안 제시)

  • Kwon, Soonho;Kim, Junghwan;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.3518-3524
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    • 2015
  • Spatial and time variation of the precipitation in Korea is high, therefore, more than 2/3 of the annual precipitation is concentrated during the rainy season. Climate change also causes the intensive rainfall in the area of dense population, thus the occurrence frequency of the heavy flood in the impervious area has been increased. Therefore, the structural food mitigation measures such as the construction of the higher design frequency stormwater pipes, pumping stations, and/or detention ponds. The flood bypass tunnel or retention storage is also one of the efficient structures to mitigate flood damage in the urban area. However, the economic feasibility has been controversial because the flood bypass tunnel might be used once or twice a year. To solve the problem, the multi-functional tunnel for the urban traffic and flooding bypass has been considered. In this study, the design criteria of the road and water tunnel has been analysed and the composite design criteria is proposed for the multi-functional tunnel which is expected to be constructed.

The Characteristics of Probable Maximum Flood on Wi Stream Watersheds (위천유역(渭川流域)의 가능최대홍수량(可能最大洪水量) 특성(特性))

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook;Suh, Seung-Duk
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.16
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 1998
  • The estimation of PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) and the analysis of characteristics of PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) according to the types of time distribution of rainfall and variations of base flow for the determination of design flood of major hydraulic structures in the watershed area of Wi stream were analysed. The PMP was estimated by the hydro-meteorological method suggested by the guideline of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO). The Blocking method was cited to transpose from PMP to PMS (Probable Maximum Storm) with time distribution. The unit hydrograph, applied for the estimation of PMF was derived by Clark's method. The summaryzed results : (1) The 72 hrs duration PMP in the area is 477.3mm which is 80mm less than the PMP map in Korea and 134 mm lager than the maximum precipitation of 342.9mm in Taegu, near the Wi stream watershed. (2) According to the types of time distribution and variations of base flow, the ranges of PMF for advanced type, central type and delayed type are 3,145.3~3,348.3cms, 3,774.6~3,977.7cms and 3,814.6~4,017.3cms, respectively. Those mean that peak discharge of advanced type is 600cms less than the central type and delayed type. (3) Delayed type among three types by Blocking method has been estimated the largest PMF of 4,017.3cms, and the advanced type has been estimated the smallest PMF of 3,145.3cms. The mean value of the peak PMF of 3,653.6cms may probably be resonable PMF in the Wi stream watershed. The mean PMF could probably be 1.7 times lager than the result of Gajiyama's equation. It is equivalent to the flood of return period 1,000 to 10,000 yrs.

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The Water Quality Analysis on Climate Change and Dam construction (기후변화와 저수지 건설에 따른 수질분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Il;Choi, Hyun-Gu;Park, Tae-Won;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.193-193
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    • 2011
  • 국제기구인 정부간 기후변화협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 이하 IPCC)에서는 기후변화가 기온 상승에 따른 증발산량의 증가, 강수량 및 유출량의 시공간적 분포의 변동 등을 초래하여 수자원의 효율적 관리 및 안정적인 공급에 어려움을 증대시킬 것으로 전망하였다. 또한 IPCC 4차 보고서에 따르면 21세기말 지구의 평균기온은 현재보다 최대 $6.3^{\circ}C$정도 더 상승할 것으로 전망하였다. 전구평균기온이 $3.0^{\circ}C$ 증가할 경우 아시아에서만 연간 700만 명이상이 홍수피해 위기에 직면할 것으로 예상되고 있다. 국내의 경우 기온은 전구평균기온에 비해 2배 이상 높은 $1.5^{\circ}C$ 정도 상승하였으며, 최근 50년간의 강우일수는 감소한 반면 일강수량이 80mm 이상인 호우일수의 발생빈도는 증가되고 있다고 보고되었다. 또한 최근의 물수지 해석과 관련하여 거시적인 관점에서 기온 및 강수량 증가에 따른 물순환 과정을 모의하고, 농업용수, 댐건설, 도시화, 토지이용의 변화 등 인위적인 환경 변화 및 기후변화에 따른 유출량의 변화를 정량화하려는 연구들이 수행되고 있다(한국건설기술원, 2007). 이를 위하여 단기적이 아니라 장기적인 측면에서 유출분석을 할 필요가 있으나, 현재까지 보유하고 있는 실측 자료의 한계 및 이러한 조사를 위해 요구되는 시간 및 비용의 한계 때문에, 유출해석 모형을 주로 이용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 장래 건설예정인 미계측 호소의 유량과 수질을 모의하기 위하여 하천, 하구, 호소 및 해역에 고루 적용할 수 있는 3차원 수리 동력학적인 모델인 EFDC 모형과 시간의 변화에 따른 수질을 모의하는데 가장 널리 이용하는 WASP 모형을 도입하였다. 향후, 내성천의 영주댐 건설과 같은 큰 변화가 발생하였을 기후 변화의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 EFDC와 WASP모형을 이용하여 대상유역에 대한 유출량과 수온의 변화를 통하여 A2, B1 기후변화 시나리오별로 2020년, 2050년, 2080년의 수질(BOD, TN, TP)변화를 분석하여 보았다. 연구의 결과는 다음과 같이 나타났다. EFDC 및 WASP 모형의 연계를 통한 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 미래의 저수지 수질예측 모의를 수행한 결과, BOD, TN, TP 등 수질농도 변화는 2020년에서 2080년도로 갈수록 BOD, TN 다소 증가하는 경향을 나타내었고, TP농도는 감소하였다. 시나리오별 변화 특성은 TN, TP 농도는 A2 시나리오가 다소 높고, BOD 농도는 B1 시나리오가 A2보다 높은 것으로 나타났다. EFDC와 WASP을 이용하여 미계측 호소에 대한 기후변화 시나리오별로 적용하여 수질변화를 예측하여 보았는데, 향후 기후변화에 따른 기온, 유량변화와 수질 항목간의 상간관계 정립 및 수질 모의의 불확실성 등에 대한 추가 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Analysis of Landslide Characteristics in Jeonlabuk-do, Korea (전라북도 지역의 산사태발생 특성분석)

  • Park, Chong-Min;Ma, Ho-Seop;Kang, Won-Seok;Oh, Kyeong-Won;Park, Seong-Hak;Lee, Sung-Jae
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to analyze the landslide characteristics and forest environment factors on the landslide area of Jeonlabuk-do province in korea. The results obtained from this study were summarized as follows; The total number of landslide occurrence was 182 areas. The average area of landslide scar was $1,859m^2$, average length of the landslides was 139m, average width was 13m. The landslides were highly occurred in igneous rock and coniferous. And also, slope gradient was $21{\sim}30^{\circ}$, aspect was NE, altitude was 401~500m, vertical and cross slope was concave (凹),stream order was 1 order, soil depth was 15m below, landslide type was linear, forest type was artificial. The relationship between landslide area and environmental factors was a positive correlation with cross slope (convex), position (upper), altitude (501m), forest type (coniferous), parent rock (sedimentary rock), D.B.H. (over 17cm), but was negative correlation with slope gradient ($31{\sim}40^{\circ}$), parent rock (igneous rock), D.B.H. (6~16cm).