• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2006

The most important progress in diagnostic sciences is the increased sensitivity and specificity in diagnostic procedures due to the development of micromethodologies and increasing availability of immunological and molecular biological reagents. The technological advances led to consider the diagnostic use of saliva for an array of analytes and DNA source. The purpose of the present study was to compare DNA from saliva with those from blood and buccal swab, to evaluate diagnostic and forensic application of saliva, to investigate the changes of genomic DNA in saliva according to the storage temperature and period of saliva samples, and to evaluate the integrity of the DNA from saliva stored under various storage conditions by PCR analysis. Peripheral venous blood, unstimulated whole saliva, stimulated whole saliva, and buccal swab were obtained from healthy 10 subjects (mean age: $29.9{\pm}9.8$ years) and genomic DNA was extracted using commercial kit. For the study of effects of various storage conditions on genomic DNA from saliva, stimulated whole saliva were obtained from healthy 20 subjects (mean age: $32.3{\pm}6.6$ years). After making aliquots from fresh saliva, they were stored at room temperature, $4^{\circ}C$, $-20^{\circ}C$, and $-70^{\circ}C$. Saliva samples after lyophilization and dry-out procedure were stored at room temperature. After 1, 3, and 5 months, the same experiment was performed to investigate the changes in genomic DNA in saliva samples. In case of saliva aliquots stored at room temperature and dry-out samples, the results in 2 weeks were also included. Integrity of DNA from saliva stored under various storage conditions was also evaluated by PCR amplification analysis of $\beta$-globin gene fragments (989-bp). The results were as follows: 1. Concentration of genomic DNA extracted from saliva was lower than that from blood (p<0.05), but there were no significant differences among various types of saliva samples. Purities of genomic DNA extracted from stimulated whole saliva and lyophilized one were significantly higher than that from blood (p<0.05). Purity of genomic DNA extracted from buccal swab was lower than those from various types of saliva samples (p<0.05). 2. Concentration of genomic DNA from saliva stored at room temperature showed gradual reduction after 1 month, and decreased significantly in 3 and 5 months (p<0.05, p<0.01, respectively). Purities of DNA from saliva stored for 3 and 5 months showed significant differences with those of fresh saliva and stored saliva for 1 month (p<0.05). 3. In the case of saliva stored at $4^{\circ}C$ and $-20^{\circ}C$, there were no significant changes of concentration of genomic DNA in 3 months. Concentration of DNA decreased significantly in 5 months (p<0.05). 4. There were no significant differences of concentration of genomic DNA from saliva stored at $-70^{\circ}C$ and from lyophilized one according to storage period. Concentration of DNA showed decreasing tendency in 5 months. 5. Concentration of genomic DNA immediately extracted from saliva dried on Petri dish were 60% compared with that of fresh saliva. Concentration of DNA from saliva stored at room temperature after dry-out showed rapid reduction within 2 weeks (p<0.05). 6. Amplification of $\beta$-globin gene using PCR was successful in all lyophilized saliva stored for 5 months. At the time of 1 month, $\beta$-globin gene was successfully amplified in all saliva samples stored at $-20^{\circ}C$ and $-70^{\circ}C$, and in some saliva samples stored at $4^{\circ}C$. $\beta$-globin gene was failed to amplify in saliva stored at room temperature and dry-out saliva.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.530-534
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• 2006

조류발전은 조류 유속이 빠른 곳에 수차발전기를 설치하여 해수의 운동에너지로부터 전기를 생산하는 발전방식이다. 2001년부터 해양연구원에서는 울돌목의 우수한 조류발전 개발 여건을 바탕으로 조류에너지 실용화 기술을 개발하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 조류발전 시스템에 사용되는 헬리컬 수차의 효율을 현장실험을 바탕으로 판단하고자 하였다. 현장실험을 위하여 지름 2.2 m, 높이 2.5 m의 수차를 제작하고, 울돌목 협수로의 한 쪽 면에 쟈켓구조물을 설치하여 수차를 거치한다. 수차가 회전함에 따라 회전봉에 일정 마찰을 주어 토크와 RPM을 측정하고, 함께 측정된 유속자료를 이용하여 수차를 효율을 산정한다. 유속-수차효율, TSR(수차의 날개속도와 유속의 비)-수차효율의 상관관계로 실험결과를 고찰하였다. 1중 날개 수차인 경우에 유속 1.4에서 2.6 m/s 사이에서 최대효율이 30 - 35 % 정도였고, 2중 날개 수차에 대한 실험에서는 유속 1.4에서 2.6 m/s 사이에서 최대수차효율이 25 - 35 % 사이임을 알 수 있었다. TSR과 최대수차효율의 상관관계는 실험 case별로 조금씩 다르다. 전체적으로 1중 날개의 경우가 최대수차효율에서 2중 날개보다 TSR 값이 조금 큰 경향을 나타냄을 알 수 있다. 이것은 1중 날개가 2중 날개보다 가벼워 좀 더 큰 RPM을 발생시켜서 나타난 현상으로 생각된다. 현재의 실험결과들을 이용하여 TSR과 최대수차효율을 상관관계를 나타내는 모델식을 도출하였다. 현장시험결과를 종합하면, 현장조류발전 시설이 최소 600 kW의 전력이 생산되기 위해서는 지름 3 m, 높이 3.6 m 인 수차 3개가 하나의 축에 설치되어야하는 것으로 계산되었다. 정격유속이 4.8 m/s이고 수차의 지름이 3m 라면, 최적 전력발생시의 RPM은 1중 날개의 경우 79이고 2중 날개의 경우는 63정도임을 추정할 수 있었다.촬영하여 실시간으로 전송하기 때문에 홍수시 하천 상황에 대한 모니터링 목적으로 사용될 수 있다. 영상수위계는 우물통 등을 이용하는 기존 방법과 비교하여 구조물이 필요 없어 설치 비용이 저렴하고, 영상에 의한 하천 모니터링 기능을 자체적으로 가지고 있기 때문에 효율적이라고 할 수 있다.따른 4개의 평가기준과 26개의 평가속성으로 이루어진 2단계 기술가치평가 모형을 구축하였으며 2개의 개별기술에 대한 시범적용을 실행하였다.하는 것으로 추정되었다.면으로의 월류량을 산정하고 유입된 지표유량에 대해서 배수시스템에서의 흐름해석을 수행하였다. 그리고, 침수해석을 위해서는 2차원 침수해석을 위한 DEM기반 침수해석모형을 개발하였고, 건물의 영향을 고려할 수 있도록 구성하였다. 본 연구결과 지표류 유출 해석의 물리적 특성을 잘 반영하며, 도시지역의 복잡한 배수시스템 해석모형과 지표범람 모형을 통합한 모형 개발로 인해 더욱 정교한 도시지역에서의 홍수 범람 해석을 실시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 모형의 개발로 침수상황의 시간별 진행과정을 분석함으로써 도시홍수에 대한 침수위험 지점 파악 및 주민대피지도 구축 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 있을 것으로 판단되었다.4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주식시장에 적합한 거래전략은 반전거래전

• Resources Recycling
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.55-62
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• 2008

Amount of waste is always generated in industrialization process and it is gradually increasing. Domestic and industrial waste in 2003 increased by 9.5 percent than that of the last year(2002), whereas the amount of construction waste increased largely by 21 percent. Recently construction waste of total waste accounts for nearly 50 percent, waste concrete and Ascon from the construction waste takes up to 73 percent. Furthermore, amount of natural materials are gradually decreasing, that is, they are not sufficient any more. Owing to these reasons, the importance of recycling construction waste has been emphasized. The use of recycling aggregate makes the disposal of construction waste easier as well as protects environment from gathering raw aggregate. Also, it has the alternative effect economizing the insufficient new natural aggregate. This study employs the cost-benefit model to analyze the economic effect of construction waste recycling of Ascon which takes relatively high part of the total waste. The cost-comparison between raw aggregate and recycling aggregate were analyzed. With the model, the economic effect of Ascon recycling in 2003 and 2004 in capital area of Korea were analysed. Cost comparison between raw aggregate and recycling aggregate were also carried out. The result showed that the economic effect of Ascon recycling increased to 0.0808 for 2004 as compared 0.0694 for 2003. We could not conclude using above data, but this result shows that the economic benefit of Ascon recycling of construction waste has increased.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.107-117
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• 2016

In this study, six historical parks in Seoul is analyzed. Based on the analysis, the representative values of the historical parks in Seoul draw three criteria such as historicity, educational attributes, and sociality, and also the type of historic and cultural resources, spatial functions and arrangements, circulation and accessibility, and the type and usage of introduced facilities. Consequently the current status and improvement plan is suggested as follows. First, cultural assets oriented historical parks such as Sayuksin Bongeun and Seonnongdan historical Park focus on the management based on the preservation of historic and cultural resources. Non designated cultural heritages oriented historic parks such as Shingye Yanghwajin Itaewon-bugundang historic park should focus on the usages the symbolize and commemorate historic and cultural resources. Second, Careful attitudes on the historicity of the park are needed in the mixed type of historic and cultural resources that determine the identity such as Yanghwajin Itaewon-bugundang historic park. Third, the rate of facilities in Bongeun and Shingye historical park is increased due to the renovation of religion facilities, rather than the neighborhood parks. The autonomy of regulations that does not have the limits of the area of park facilities weaken the publicity of the historical parks. Fourth, Shingye historical park suggest changing its name into Danggogae martyrs' shrine historical park. because its historic and cultural resources are included as the historic park is named. Fifth, the current problems such as numerous uncontrolled entrances, mixed uses in circulation, and accessible failure due to the closure are recognized. Therefore, the entrances and circulations should be articulated clearly in order to increase opportunities of experience for visitors in the historic and cultural resources, and also neighborhood facility should be suitably divided. Sixth, the park facilities in the neighborhood parks are introduced equally in Seoul historical parks. The uses and arrangements that considered the circumstance of the historical parks should be determined in the cultural facilities such as outdoor music hall and sporting facilities. Seventh, historic facilities that named historic hall, culture hall, memorial hall, and promotion hall in the historic parks are utilized for convenience and religion facilities. Institutional framework should be examined to keep publicity in the historic parks by spatial privatization of the specific group.

• Childhood Kidney Diseases
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.57-63
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• 1999

Purpose : To evaluate the diagnostic significance of simultaneous examination of hematuria and proteinuria in the urinary mass screening for early detection ot incipient renal diseases. Method and Object : During the period of 4 months from August to December in 1997, we did urinary mass screening on students of first grade of high school (16 years aged group) nationwide together with Korean Association of Health(KAH). In the first screening test, Comber-10 $N^{(R)}$ M dipsticks were used to detect proteinuria, hematuria, pyuria and nitrite simultaneously. Total 26,508 students (16 years aged group) from 33 high schools in every province in Korea, respectively, complied to the urinary mass screening. After then, one high school in Seoul was selected to reveal the true incidence of incipient renal diseases among students who showed hematuria in the initial screening through intensive examinations. Those who had hematuria and/or proteinuria visited the Paik hospital, and underwent blood tests and ultrasonographic examinations. The results were evaluated. Results 1) The initial screening revealed that the prevalence of proteinuria, hematuria, pyuria and positive nitrite urine, were $0.73\%,\;2.69\%,\;0.23\%\;and\;0.03\%$, respectively. 2) The first urinary screening among 875 students from one high school in Seoul selected fir the second test showed proteinuria, hematuria, pyuria and positive nitrite urine, were $0.91\%,\;4.68\%,\;0.34\%\;and\;0\%$, respectively. a) Total 8 among 875 students showed proteinuria, but one of them had orthostatic proteinuria and those remaining 7 students had transient proteinuria. b) There were 41 students who had hematuria in the initial screening. Among 33 who complied the second test, only one student showed asymptomatic isolated hematuria and those remaining students were normal. Conclusion : 1) Because of high false positive hematuria rate in the urinary mass screening, it dosen't seem to be appropriate that hematuria screening using dipsticks be included in the urinary mass screening. 2) A unified organization is needed from the fret that so various results of urinary mass screening came out. 3) Positive rates of pyuria and nitrite were so low that validity of urinary mass screening for urinary tract infection needs more studies.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.31-55
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• 2005

Dangsan forests and Rural Community Forests(RCF) have been historical assets for the rural communities of more than 40,000 in Korea and they have provided an identity through the cultural heritage. The Dangsan forests and the RCF are parts of a unique cultural landscape in the rural areas as components of stream landscape. In many cases, the Dangsan forests and the RCF are located close to stream corridors. The objective of this study was to understand the function of the Dangsan forests and the RCF on stream water quality and to evaluate its ecological landscape values. Through the consideration of international concensus and domestic government policy for close-to-nature stream, we could find out that Dangsan forests and RCF's have close relationship with the close-to-nature streams. The water quality of the streams close to the Dangsan forests and the RCF are maintained with local culture. It is also compared to the streams located where Dangsan forests and the RCF are absent. Eight study sites were selected. Water samples were collected at three different locations at each study site. Water samples were analyzed for temperature, pH, total P, total N, dissolved oxygen, EC, BOD, COD and SS. Aquatic invertebrates were observed as water quality indicator species. The results showed that the number of aquatic invertebrate species, GPI, DO, EC, BOD, and SS were significantly improved in stream water due to the presence of the Dangsan forests and the RCF. The role of Dangsan forests and the RCF was evident in the conservation of stream landscape and rural culture as well as in maintaining stream water quality. The management schemes of the streams with Dangsan forests and the RCF's are also suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.199-204
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• 2006

This study was conducted to investigate the quality characteristics of noodles prepared with the addition of nanofiltered (NF) powder of sunmul. Noodles were prepared with different levels $(0\%,\;1.5\%,\;3\%\;and\;5\%,\;w/w)$ of NF powder and physico-chemical properties were examined. Results of rapid visco analyzer showed that peak, trough, final viscosity and set back decreased as the NF powder level increased. The weight and volume of cooked noodles increased with the addition of NF powder. Turbidity of soup also increased as the amount of NF powder increased, indicating higher cooking loss. The color of wet and cooked noodles became greenish yellow as the NF powder level increased. Hardness, springiness, gumminess and brittleness of cooked noodles decreased with the increasing amount of NF powder. Results of sensory evaluation showed that noodles prepared with up to $3\%$ addition of NF powder was considered to be as acceptable as noodles prepared without NF powder.

• Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.63-77
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• 2004

The purpose of this study was to construct an issue-centered discussion instructional model for Home Economics and to determine its effect on middle school students' critical thinking. The research questions were posed as below. 1) The object and content of home economics in the 7th national middle school curricula are analyzed to sort out possible issues. 2) An issue-centered discussion instructional model is constructed to be applicable to middle school home economics class. and a lesson plan is prepared. 3) The effect of the issue-centered discussion instructional model developed in this study on student critical thinking faculty is examined. The findings of this study were as follows : First. seven criteria were selected to determine what types of issues were applicable to home economics lesson. Based on the selected criteria. 41 themes of issues were extracted from the 7th middle school textbooks. and their content validity was verified. Second, an issue-centered discussion instructional model was designed to deal with four themes in eight sessions in the procedure of problem raising, confirming, term defining. tentative alternative selecting, data gathering. discussing/critical approaching. and selecting/concluding. Third, two different third-year classes of K middle school in the city of Busan that consisted of 75 students were respectively selected as an experimental group and a control group, and the experiment was conducted in eight sessions for five weeks to see whether the teaching plan brought any changes to the critical mind of the students. The experimental group exposed to the issue-centered discussion lesson made a significant progress in critical thinking faculty(P＜.05). In particular. that instruction gave a favorable impact on demonstration evaluating(P＜.05). one of the critical thinking subfactors. When the students were asked to assess the issue-centered discussion lesson. most of them viewed it favorably. In the future, more research efforts should be dedicated to enhancing the practical applicability of issue-centered discussion instruction in home economics education. developing good evaluation tools about critical thinking faculty and finding out how discussion instruction could be conducted more efficiently.

• The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.514-520
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• 1997

The study was carried out to investigate the changes of quality and to determine the optimal shelf-life of fried soybean curd under low temperature(8$\pm$2$^{\circ}C$) and room temperature(25-3$0^{\circ}C$), respectively. The quality criteria for fried soybean were acid value, peroxide value, fatty acid composition and microbial concentration, et al. The initial moisture content of fried soybean curd was 41.9%, it was rapidly decreased to 29.6% until the second days under low temperature. The pH value was 5.7 and 5.8 at the ninth days under 8$\pm$2$^{\circ}C$ and the sixth days under 25-3$0^{\circ}C$, respectively. Also, the acid value rised remarkly to 10.65 at the fifth days and the peroxide value was 12.20 at the sixth days under room temperature. The viable cell counts were 1.0$\times$1.0 at the initial storage, but they were increased to 6.1$\times$105 over at the second days of room temperature. Moreover, the mold colony counts were in 2.0$\times$10-6.0$\times$103 and 2.0$\times$10=8.5$\times$107 during all storage days under 8$\pm$2$^{\circ}C$ and 25-3$0^{\circ}C$, respectively.