• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가변 구조

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Intergenerational Conflict and Integration in family (가족 내 세대갈등과 통합)

  • Nam, Soonhyeon
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2004
  • The drastically changing society has brought diverse types of families, and these diversities are changing the concept of the word 'family' itself. Inevitably, these changes cause different viewpoints among family members, developing into conflicts and social issues. In this paper, generational family problems, which are caused by changes within the family as a result of the variously, diversely changing society, are observed to suggest a resolution. Looking into the functional variety that today's structural change within a family demands, several positives changes described below have been observed; Firstly, the change in the way of interaction among family members; Secondly, the demand for continuance on relational functions including love, care, etc, as a psychological resource of family; Thirdly, the conversion from form's sake relationship to actual relationship; and Lastly, the usage of a clearer communications network. The interaction between the parent-children relationship, according to the changes in family life cycle, is also re-focused to seek resolutions for intergenerational conflicts. The results are as follows; Firstly, the changeability of various family types today must be accepted, and the functional aspects of changing families must be emphasized ; Secondly, the mutual-exchanging value of each generation must be accepted, strengthening relational functions between generations; Thirdly, it is necessary to refocus filial piety. In other words, though the intergenerational transmission of family functions may become the basis of lineage and clan formation, it won't be possible without interaction between generation.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

An Alternative Perspective to Resolve Modelling Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis for D/t Limitation Models of CFST (CFST의 D/t 제한모델들에 대한 신뢰성해석에서 모델링불확실성을 해결하는 선택적 방법)

  • Han, Taek Hee;Kim, Jung Joong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.409-415
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    • 2015
  • For the design of Concrete-Filled Steel Tube(CFST) columns, the outside diameter D to the steel tube thickness t ratio(D/t ratio) is limited to prevent the local buckling of steel tubes. Each design code proposes the respective model to compute the maximum D/t ratio using the yield strength of steel $f_y$ or $f_y$ and the elastic modulus of steel E. Considering the uncertainty in $f_y$ and E, the reliability index ${beta}$ for the local buckling of a CFST section can be calculated by formulating the limit state function including the maximum D/t models. The resulted ${beta}$ depends on the maximum D/t model used for the reliability analysis. This variability in reliability analysis is due to ambiguity in choosing computational models and it is called as "modelling uncertainty." This uncertainty can be considered as "non-specificity" of an epistemic uncertainty and modelled by constructing possibility distribution functions. In this study, three different computation models for the maximum D/t ratio are used to conduct reliability analyses for the local buckling of a CFST section and the reliability index ${beta}$ will be computed respectively. The "non-specific ${beta}s$" will be modelled by possibility distribution function and a metric, degree of confirmation, is measured from the possibility distribution function. It is shown that the degree of confirmation increases when ${beta}$ decreases. Conclusively, a new set of reliability indices associated with a degree of confirmation is determined and it is allowed to decide reliability index for the local buckling of a CFST section with an acceptable confirmation level.

Vietnamese Immigrants and Buddhism in Southern Louisiana: Ingredients for 'Melting Pot' or for Cultural Diversity? (남부루이지애나의 베트남 移民集團과 佛敎: 鎔鑛爐 속의 成分? 혹은 文化的 多樣性의 成分?)

  • Lee, Young-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.685-698
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    • 1996
  • Southern Louisiana has one of the largest Vitnamese refrgee neighborhoods after the mid-1970s. It is impressive that one of their adaptive strategies comes from their religious lives which are centered on either Catholicism or Buddhism. The Buddhism community, especially, exhibits an exotic symbolic system of value and attitude, and thus contributes to cultural diversity in the adopted country. The landscape of the Buddhist temple is a visible symbol to them that the host socirty accepts their maintenance of their own cultural identity and that they are also an integral part of American society. Their making-place and being-in-place procedures, although their culture is being transformed in the original shape, put an emphasis on interaction with the host xociety. These procedures have been facilitated by consolidating their identity as a minority group as well as by interacting with the host society. The on-going influx of foreign immigrant groups seems not to drive them to assimilate into the melting-pot society, but to contribute to contribute to the increase in the cultural diversity of the United States.

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A Case Study on the Design of Pickup Truck Tuning Equipment according to the Lifestyle of Modern People (현대인의 라이프스타일에 따른 픽업트럭 튜닝 용품 디자인 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Hun;Park, Hae-Lim;Lee, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2023
  • Changes in consumer needs and behaviors according to lifestyle changes lead to consumption culture, affecting the automobile market. However, research and research to provide options tailored to the lifestyle of consumers in related markets are still insufficient. Focusing on pickup truck accessories applied to pickup trucks that reflect lifestyle the most among vehicle types, this study first examined the theoretical background of the aftermarket market and lifestyle of pickup trucks. Second, through image mapping, the market possibilities and opportunity factors of pickup trucks were discovered through market size analysis and possibilities, and through this, user types could be classified. Third, interviews were conducted with those representing user types, the contents were organized, and interviews were conducted centering on related groups to create a persona of a user group, and what needs each group's persona wanted. Finally, a design concept suitable for the issue keywords and insights derived for each user lifestyle type was presented. In this study, the user type was divided into ① outdoor activity type, ② hobby activity type, and ③ small-scale work type, and a design case study was conducted by applying the concept suitable for the keyword for each group. For the outdoor activity type, a variable storage structure and a living space-type accessory design were presented, and for the hobby type, a modular decktop design and a sports coupe-type hardtop design were presented. For the small business type, a partition that is easy to fix the load and a stepper design that is easy to board the cargo box were presented. It is expected that the size of the pickup truck aftermarket will be expanded by diversifying the option designs that users want by lifestyle by applying them to the development of pickup truck accessories that fit the lifestyle of pickup truck users in the automobile market, which is currently mass customized.