• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.6 no.7
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• pp.297-306
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• 2017

Citizens want more accurate forecast information using Bus Information System. However, most bus information systems that use an average based short-term prediction algorithm include many errors because they do not consider the effects of the traffic flow, signal period, and halting time. In this paper, we try to improve the precision of forecast information by analyzing the influencing factors of the error, thereby making the convenience of the citizens. We analyzed the influence factors of the error using BIS data. It is shown in the analyzed data that the effects of the time characteristics and geographical conditions are mixed, and that effects on halting time and passes speed is different. Therefore, the halt time is constructed using Generalized Additive Model with explanatory variable such as hour, GPS coordinate and number of routes, and we used Hidden Markov Model to construct a pattern considering the influence of traffic flow on the unit section. As a result of the pattern construction, accurate real-time forecasting and long-term prediction of route travel time were possible. Finally, it is shown that this model is suitable for travel time prediction through statistical test between observed data and predicted data. As a result of this paper, we can provide more precise forecast information to the citizens, and we think that long-term forecasting can play an important role in decision making such as route scheduling.

• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.35-50
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• 2017

The aims of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of firms financial status quo and the scale of financial support on SMEs overall performance. We have gathered the financial guarantee data from 1998 to 2013, provided by Korea Credit Guarantee Fund (KODIT), to analyze the effectiveness of Financial policy. To classify both financial status quo and scale of financial support, we utilized the following variables; Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) and newly guaranteed amount ratio. To take the measurement of the overall performance, we employed profitability, growth ratio and activity index. To minimize the effect of repeated financial support (redundancy benefits), firms were selected based on the following criteria: firms that receive no financial support prior to implementing such policy over the last 3 years and no new financial support over the last 2 years. Results suggest that firms with higher ICR and large newly guaranteed amount influence on financial performance in terms of profitability index. Firms with lower ICR and large scale financial support showed a better performance compare to firms with small-scale financial support. Firms with large-scale financial support, irrespective of ICR inclined to have better performance to those of small-scale financial support in terms of growth index. For activity index, however, firms with large scale support led to higher performance in the short term. In turn, our analysis presents objective perspective with respect to the effectiveness of financial policy through credit guarantee on overall performance of SMEs. This study, therefore, implies that well-balanced SMEs supporting policy may lead to better directions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.25-39
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• 2017

Over 5 million people participate in cycle racing betting and its revenue is more than 2 trillion won. This study predicts the ranking of cycle racing using various statistical analyses and identifies important variables which have influence on ranking. We propose competitive ranking prediction models using various classification and regression methods. Our model can predict rankings with low misclassification rates most of the time. We found that the ranking increases as the grade of a racer decreases and as overall scores increase. Inversely, we can observe that the ranking decreases when the grade of a racer increases, race number four is given, and the ranking of the last race of a racer decreases. We also found that prediction accuracy can be improved when we use centered data per race instead of raw data. However, the real profit from the future data was not high when we applied our prediction model because our model can predict only low-return events well.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.81-98
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• 2018

Port logistics is essential for Korea's economy which heavily rely on international trade. Vast amounts of capital and time are consumed for the operation and development of ports to improve their competitiveness. Therefore, it is important to forecast cargo volume in order to establish the optimum level of construction and development plan. Itemized forecasting is necessary for appropriate port planning, since disaggregate approach is able to provides more realistic solution than aggregate forecasting. We introduce a new time series model which is Two-way Seasonality Multiplied Regressive Model (TSMR) to forecast oil cargo volume, which accounts for a large portion of total cargo volume in Korea. The TSMR model is designed to take into account the characteristics of oil cargo volume which exhibits trends with short and long-term seasonality. To verify the TSMR model, existing forecasting models are also used for a comparison reason. The results shows that the TSMR excels the existing models in terms of forecasting accuracy whereas the TSMR displays weakness in short-term forecasting. In addition, it was shown that the TSMR can be applied to other cargoes that have trends with short- and long-term seasonality through testing applicability of the TSMR.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.27-42
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• 2009

This study has intended to evaluate the subjective landscape of rural region using additive integration index calculation model in Seondong region, Gochang-gun, Jeollabuk-do, Korea. This study consists of the following three steps. First, this study defmed the rural landscape using survey and developed the estimating equation for rural landscape assessment index. Second, this study set up assessment units and assessment indicators, then estimated mean of representative landscape adjectives in accordance with them through residents-participatory evaluation. Third, this study calculated rural landscape assessment index using additive integration index calculation model, and evaluated subjective landscape of rural region in accordance with space types and landscape fields through mapping methodology. The results of this study can be described as follows: 1) satisfaction level for landscape in accordance with village (urban area and residential area) was very high; 2) satisfaction level was very high in both Ye-Jeon reservoir and Hakwon farm, representative landscape resources of the study area.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.377-392
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• 2008

The need for overall assessment of economic effectiveness of library culture program has been suggested, as its importance continues to grow. Our study proposed a new assessment method by applying DM format and IBM format to contingent valuation method that has been used for analyzing the economic value of culture program. This study also illustrates the process through case analysis so that the public library can apply this model. It is meaningful that the study provides basic framework to evaluate the fair value of the public library by minimizing the bias that the contingent valuation method has.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.11-18
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• 2012

Increasing concern about biodiversity has lead to a rise in demand on the spatial assessment of biological resources such as biodiversity assessment, protected area selection, habitat management and restoration in Korea. The purpose of this study is to create species richness map through data collection and modeling techniques for wildlife habitat assessment. The GAM (Generalized Additive Model) is easy to interpret and shows better relationship between environmental variables and a response variable than an existing overlap analysis and GLM (Generalized Linear Model). The study area delineated by a large watershed contains Jirisan national park, Mt. Baekun and Sumjin river with three kinds of protected areas (a national park, a landscape ecology protected area and an otter protected area). We collected the presence-absence data for wildlife (mammals and birds) using a stratified random sampling based on a land cover in the study area and implemented natural and socio-environmental data affecting wildlife habitats. After doing a habitat use analysis and specifying significant factors for each species, we built habitat suitability models using a presence-absence model and created habitat suitability maps for each species. Biodiversity maps were generated by taxa and all species using habitat suitability maps. Significant factors affecting each species habitat were different according to their habitat selection. Although some species like a water deer or a great tit were distributed at the low elevation, most potential habitats for mammals and birds were found at the edge of a national park boundary or near a forest around the medium elevation of a mountain range. This study will be used for a basis on biodiversity assessment and proected area selection carried out by Ministry of Environment.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.96 no.3
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• pp.283-289
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• 2007

Benefit-cost analysis is a useful tool for organizing information on the relative value of alternative public investments like national park preservation projects. When the value of all significant benefits and costs can be expressed in monetary terms, the net value (benefits minus costs) of the alternatives under consideration can be computed and used to identify the alternative that yields the greatest increase in public welfare. However, since goods and services of national parks are not commonly bought or sold in the marketplace, it can be difficult to express the outputs of a national park preservation project in monetary terms. In this case the dichotomous choice contingent valuation is employed to elicit the public benefit value. In this paper, a distribution-free approach, Turnbull empirical distribution model, is employed to analysis the benefit value of Woraksan National Park. The result is shown that annual use and preservation values of Woraksan National Park are estimated 6.5 and l37.4 billion won. Also, flow and stock values are estimated 143.9 and 3,021.7 billion won, respectively.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.179-184
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• 2013

Willingness-to-pay (WTP) for pork produced by quality test was determined using a contingent valuation method. Three model studies including a dichotomous-choice and two double dichotomous-choice types were conducted. The respondents in this study appropriately understood the contingent valuation and the suggested price was significant as a characteristic variable. The results imply that there is lower chance to select pork produced by the quality test, as the price difference is greater between conventional and quality-tested pork. WTPs in double and single contingent valuation models were 735 and 547 won/100 g, respectively. WTP was increased with increasing the educational level of respondents. The average WTPs analyzed by convariate were 1,015 won/100 g for double contingent valuation and 580 won/100 g for single contingent valuation. Considering the minimum price of WTP of pork produced by quality test (547.4 won/100 g), the total economic value was estimated to be 5,173,600 million won and per capita customer value was 106,000 won. Therefore, providing an institutional strategy for pork quality test will be beneficial for the consumers.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.389-398
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• 2018

An MRA is considered to be an important policy tool within the WTO for overcoming technical barriers to trade. A number of studies on the economic impact of MRAs have demonstrated their positive economic effects. However, no studies have been conducted on MRAs in the pharmaceutical industry since analysis has been limited to industries as a whole or certain industries where some data were accumulated. Therefore, this paper analyzed the economic impact of MRAs for GMP inspection exemption in the pharmaceutical industry through the Conditional Valuation Method (CVM), a valuation technique for non-market goods. Pharmaceutical companies were asked whether or not they were willing to pay for the Korea-EFTA MRA through double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) questions. The final WTP was estimated using the utility difference model developed by Hanemann (1984). As a result, annual economic effects on the pharmaceutical industry were estimated to be between KRW7.03 billion to KRW15.8 billion.