• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.235-266
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• 2009

This paper investigates changes in the extent of exchange rate pass-through to export price in Korea. First, empirical results show that export prices have become less responsive to the exchange rate since the financial crisis in 1997. The decline of exchange rate pass-through to export prices suggests that Korean exporters are more likely to use profit margins to absorb part of the impact of exchange rate changes, consistent with pricing to market phenomenon. Second, this paper finds asymmetries in the response of export prices to exchange rate changes. In the post-crisis period. appreciations are more likely to be offset by markup adjustment than depreciations. Third, this paper documents that a significant portion of the decline of exchange rate pass-through is a result of both increased volatility of exchange rate and increased competition with China in the world market.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.229-249
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• 2011

The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.59-73
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• 1985

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.129-151
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• 2023

This study explores whether market share matters for ERPT and also for the effects of FTA on ERPT among exporting countries in the four major fishery import markets - frozen pollock, frozen mackerel, frozen tuna, and frozen spawn in South Korea. In addition, I investigate whether market share matters for price competition among exporting countries. For this, I estimate the export price equation based on the maximum likelihood method by utilizing data on export price in terms of Korean currency, and the cross rate between South Korea and the exporting countries from 2010:M1 to 2019:M12 for the four major fishery import markets. According to the findings, the market share of exporting countries in the import markets matters for the positive effects of FTA on ERPT; however, it is hard to find the relation between the market share of exporting counties and ERPT. In addition, I find little evidence on the effects of market share on price competition structures among exporting countries. I believe that this study helps domestic fishery producers to understand that ERPT, the effect of FTA on ERPT, and price competition structures among exporting countries would be affected by the market share of each exporting country in the major fishery import markets in South Korea. Also, this study would help domestic fishery producers to think about how to deal with the effects of the change in the exchange rate on fishery markets for each FTA partner according to its market share after FTA is effective.

• KOREAN POULTRY JOURNAL
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• v.38 no.11 s.445
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• pp.100-103
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• 2006

매년 초 정부에서는 뉴스를 통해 물가에 대한 문제를 다루지 않는 경우가 거의 없다. 가정에서도‘올해는 물가가 얼마나 올랐지?’하고 생각해 보면 물가가 빠르게 상승한다는 것을 체감하게 된다. IMF시절 고금리와 환율상승으로 수입원자재 가격이 상승하면서 많은 국내업계들이 도산을 하는 아픔을 겪었다. 그리고 그여파는 고스란히 생활경제로 돌아와 국민에게 전가되면서 각종 요금들이 줄줄이 인상되었다. 식품류 가격 또한 시대의 흐름과 함께 해 마다 상승해 왔으며 앞으로도 그러할 것이다. IMF이후 환율 급등으로 수입자재의 가격이 높아지면서 어린이들이 좋아하는 아이스크림의 경우는 300원에서 500원으로 큰 폭 상승하기도 하였다. 우리나라 물가는 경제성장에 발맞추어 매년 증가세를 보이고 있으며, 이에 우리 양계산업에도 자연히 영향을 받아 높은 가격상승은 없었지만 거의 지속적으로 가격상승이 이루어졌다. 다만 일순간 질병으로 인해 소폭의 하락세를 보인적은 있지만 대체적으로 꾸준한 가격상승이 있어왔음을 볼 수 있다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.65-88
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• 1989

본고(本稿)는 1986년 이후 우리나라의 경상수지흑자(經常收支黑字) 및 수출입행태(輸出入行態)를 실증적(實證的)으로 분석(分析)하고 그 원인(原因)을 살펴보고자 하는 데 목적이 있다. 1986년의 해외여건호전(海外與件好轉)으로 경상수지(經常收支)가 흑자(黑字)로 반전하게 되자 1987년 이후에는 원화(貨)를 상당히 절상(切上)하였음에도 불구하고 경상수지흑자감소(經常收支黑字減少)의 효과가 1988년까지는 뚜렷이 나타나지 않았는데, 이는 환율(換率)의 변화를 수출가격(輸出價格)에 100% 전가(轉嫁)하지 않으려는 기업(企業)의 가격결정정책(價格決定政策)으로 수출물량감소(輸出物量減少)가 지연되고 원화절상(貨切上)의 J-커브효과(效果)가 발생했기 때문이다. 한편 1986년 이후 경상수지흑자기조하(經常收支黑字基調下)에서 수출입행태(輸出入行態)와 구조적(構造的) 안정성(安定性)을 계량적(計量的) 방법(方法)으로 검증한 결과 검증방법(檢證方法)에 따라 구조적(構造的) 안정성(安定性)의 가설(假設)이 기각되기도 하였는데 특히 수출단가(輸出單價) 및 수입물량결정행태(輸入物量決定行態)의 경우 1985년 이전에 비하여 구조적(構造的)으로 상당한 변화(變花)가 있었던 것으로 나타났다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.531-565
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• 2011

All previous studies analyzing multivariate time series data of EUA (European Union Allowance) price commonly used endogenous variables within the four variables and included the period from April to June of 2006 in the analysis, when the price distortion occurred. This study uses graph theory and structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyze the daily time series data of the EUA (European Union Allowance) price. As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid the EUA price distortion of Phase 1 period (2005~2007). Further, the monthly data including the economic variables as endogenous variables are analyzed.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.489-529
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• 2011

When greenhouse gas mitigation policies are implemented, energy intensive manufacturing industries are influenced much due to an increase in cost. However, industries that have price setting power are damaged less by the policies. Therefore, this paper analyzes vulnerability of energy intensive manufacturing industries to the policies by measuring price setting power of the industries. We analyzed price setting power model through ECM, employing the import prices and wages as independent variables. The industries that their prices react to import prices are price takers, which their prices are determined by rival's ones. On the other hand, the industry that their prices react to wages that mean domestic cost are price setters, and they will be less vulnerable to the policies. In addition, fluctuation of energy prices would be reflected in import prices because it influences other countries than my one. Thus, we employed energy prices as control variable to measure the net effects of import prices. As empirical results, petroleum products, chemical products, non-metallic mineral products, textiles, and motor vehicles sector have price setting power, so the industries have competitiveness on greenhouse gas mitigation policies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.755-775
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• 2022

This study empirically analyzes that the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment to the crude oil price changes can vary depending on the level of gasoline price using quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The data used are the weekly average Dubai price, domestic gasoline price at refiners and gas stations from the first week of May 2008 to the second week of October 2022. The study estimates three price transmission channels: changes in gas station gasoline prices in response to changes in Dubai oil prices, changes in refiners gasoline prices in response to changes in Dubai oil prices, and changes in gas station prices relative to refiners gasoline prices. As a result, the price adjustment of refiner's gasoline price with respect to Dubai oil price appears asymmetrically across all quantiles of gasoline price, whereas the adjustment of gas station prices for Dubai oil price and refiner's gasoline price tend to be more asymmetric as the quantile of gasoline price increases. Such a result is presumed to be due to changes in the inventory cost of gas stations. When the burden of inventory cost is high, gas stations have an incentive to more actively pass the increased buying price on their selling price.