• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.203-226
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• 2000

본 연구는 주가지수 선물시장이 도입된 1996년 5월 3일부터 1998년 12월 5일까지 1분 간격 KOSPI 200 선물가격과 현물가격의 거래자료를 이용하여 각 선물가격과 기초자산가격간의 관계와 상호작용을 검토하는데 있다. 특히 본 연구는 차익거래자나 초단기 투기자(scalper)들이 거래체결을 위해 촌각을 다투는 선물시장의 거래행태에서 볼 때, 경제적 의미를 부여할 수 있는 1분 간격 수익률 자료를 이용함으로써 시장참여자의 실제 거래에서 표출되는 정형화된 현상을 정확히 파악한다는 점에서 중요하다. 본 연구의 주요 결과를 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주가지수 선물시장과 현물시장간에 체계적이고 긴 선도-지연 관계가 발견되었다. 주가지수 선물가격의 변화가 현물가격의 변화를 대략 26분 정도 선도하고 있으며, 대략 5분 정도 현물시장의 선도효과도 발견된다. 따라서 KOSPI 200 선물수익률과 현물수익률간의 선도-지연 관계는 한 시장에서 다른 시장으로의 일방적인 것이 아니라 시장간의 피드백(feedback)효과가 존재하며, 선물의 선도효과가 지배적인 것으로 보인다. 이러한 선도-지연 현상은 노이즈에 의한 비동시거래보다는 거래비용과 공매제약 차이 등 각 시장의 제도적 차이에 의해 발생하는 것으로 보여진다. 둘째, 약세시장 하에서 선물의 선도효과가 더욱 크게 나타났다. 이러한 현상은 약세시장 하에서 현물시장의 공매제약이 선물가격과 현물가격간의 괴리를 더욱 크게 하여 선물가격이 현물지수를 더욱 선도하게 하는 요인이 될 수도 있음을 나타내는 것이다. 셋째, 만기별 하위기간 중 97년 6월과 97년 12월을 제외한 기간은 선물과 현물가격간에 장기 안정적인 균형관계가 성립함을 발견하였다. 넷째, ARMA(p, q) 여과를 거친 선물과 현물수익률을 이용하여 97년 6월과 12월은 백터자기회귀(VAR)모형, 그 외의 기간은 오차수정(EC)모형으로 추정하였다. 표본전체기간동안 장기균형오차에 대한 조정은 선물과 현물시장에서 동시에 이루어지고 있으며, 시장간에 발생하는 불균형 상황은 아비트라지 거래로 조정되고 있음이 발견되었다. 각 만기별 모든 하위기간에 있어서는 시장간의 장기 불균형 상황이 현물시장을 통해서 조정되고 있으며, 시장이 성숙된 최근의 만기 98년 12월 하위기간에서는 선물의 15분 선도효과와 현물의 1분 선도효과가 발견되어 선물의 선도효과가 지배적임을 발견하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.119-131
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• 2021

Energy is an essential element in economic activity and people's lives, an important resource used by various industries, and the financialization of commodity markets has led to the growing importance of crude oil turning into the same asset as other assets. Accordingly, studies analyzing the correlation between energy prices and investor sentiment explain that investor sentiment affects oil prices through economic factors and speculation. In this study, we wanted to analyze whether the impact of the most representative changes in oil prices affects investor decision making, affecting investor sentiment, and applying wavelet consistency analysis to determine how energy prices relate to investor sentiment. Studies show that policies should be focused on policy and market changes because energy prices differ by time scale and investment sentiment should be more influential in the long term than in the short term.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.53-64
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• 2018

OECD countries have been stimulating private pensions instead of public pensions because the financial stability of public pensions has been threatened by the aging population. Korea, which has the fastest aging population in the world, has been following the recommended policies of major countries. Unlike major economies, however, most of Korea's household assets are composed of real estate assets. Due to the economic and social importance of real estate assets in Korea, the wealth effect of real estate has been used as a major tool in macroeconomic policy. This study analyzed the effect of real estate value changes on the contribution of private pensions (personal pension + retirement pension). Utilizing a two-way, fixed effect model with the balanced panel data of the National Survey of Tax and Benefit, empirical results presented that the private pension contribution increased by 0.171% when the value of real estate increased by 1%. Thus, real estate value changes were analyzed as positive for retirement preparation through private pension. These results suggested that if the real estate market would shrink in the future, consumption would decrease, and the degree of preparation for retirement might be smaller.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.759-784
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• 2013

Participants can use the allowances and offsets for implementing the compliance in the Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS). There are alternative commodities which are different prices it gives the opportunities to reduce the compliance costs and get the arbitrage. This study analyzes the price driver of spread which is the difference between EUA and sCER using AR-GARCH model, EUA and CER during the Phase 2 in EU ETS. The results show that there are common elements which impacts the EUA and sCER and also different elements between them. EUA and sCER get the effects from energy price and economic criteria such as coal price and financial crisis as common elements. However them get the effects from electric price, policy criteria such as restricted CERs and difference price between EUA and ERU price as different elements. The results shows that spread will be widen if energy price increase, especially oil and electric price give more impacts the spreads. This study has the means that it explains the reason why the spreads will broaden sharply in 2012. And it also suggests the price driver of spread during the whole period of Phase 2. In addition, this study shows that political aspects maybe become the main criteria of price change with structural elements shch as energy price in Korea ETS which starts in 2015.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.170-177
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• 2017

The price of land in Jeju is reaching a new high every day and this phenomenon not only causes real difficulties for the purchase of real estate by local residents, but also results in psychological deprivation. Therefore, this study analyzes the factors causing the increase of the land price in Jeju, in order to examine the measures required to stabilize the land price which is continuously rising. As a result of this study, we developed a land price prediction model including seven variables, including the 'inflation rate', 'interest rate', and 'population'. According to the model, land prices in Jeju are expected to rise steadily, and it is predicted that in 2020 the price will increase to 170% of that in 2015 and will triple by 2025. Based on the results of this study, this study suggested policy alternatives, such as 'Establishing a tourism policy for managing the number of tourists' and 'increasing the approval standards for development activities'. The two policies proposed in this study can be implemented as a regional initiative, which may be less effective than the changes in the national system, but it is meaningful that the efforts to stabilize the land price will continue at the regional level.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.378-382
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• 2004

전력 거래 체제에 관한 기존의 연구들은 분석의 편의를 위해 복잡한 전력 시스템을 너무 단순화하여 현실성을 좀더 반영해야 할 필요가 있었다. 본 논문에서는 양방향 입찰의 전력 도매 경쟁 시장에서 선도 계약 시장의 도입과 가격 결정 방식의 변화가 장기적으로 전력 가격의 수준 및 변동성, 그리고 발전 회사들의 이윤과 같은 시장 성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 실제 데이터를 적용한 객체 기반모형 시뮬레이션을 통하여 분석하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 선도 계약 시장이 도입되는 경우 전력 가격은 상승하며 투자가 활발하게 발생하고, 가격결정방식이 단일 가격에서 차별 가격으로 바뀌는 경우 전력 가격과 가격 변동성이 감소하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.11-20
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• 2007

Even though much research has been performed to recommend favorite items to the buyers in the internet shopping mall, to the best of our knowledge. it is hard to find previous research on the recommendation of buy points. In this paper, we propose a method which can be used to recommend buy points of an item to the buyers. To do this, a database containing normalized price patterns is constructed from the archive of past prices. Then, the future price pattern is retrieved from the database based on the similarity. Here, regression analysis is used to find and analyze the elements that affect the price. We also present performance results showing that the proposed method can be useful for shopping malls.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.35-73
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• 2010

This paper examines consumption dynamics in relation to asset prices in Korea. Empirical analysis based on the error correction model shows that personal consumption is affected by changes in asset prices but the consumption converges to the long-run level of consumption corresponding to the total income flow in two years. This adjustment in consumption implies that the consumption error, reflected in the error correction term, should have predictability for the future consumption growth during the adjustment period. It is found that the error correction term has a long-run predictability for consumption over up to about 3 years; thus, confirming the error correction model. It is also found that housing prices have larger effects on consumption compared with stock prices in Korea. In addition, the effects of income and asset prices on consumption show bigger effects during contractionary period than expansionary period in business cycles. This paper also analyzes effects of asset wealth that reflects changes in both price and quantity. It is found that asset wealth has a long-run effect on consumption in addition to total income as determinants of consumption. Since wealth effects usually indicate the long-run effect of changes in asset wealth on consumption that is not explained by labor income, which is the proxy for human source of wealth, it is estimated with labor income used as a control variable. According to the estimation, the marginal propencity to consume out of asset wealth is approximately 2%. It means that 1,000won increase in asset wealth may lead to 20 won increase in consumption.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.5 no.6
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• pp.580-587
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to examine if the trading volume can apply to the short-term forecasting of the futures price change by verificating the casuality between trading volume and futures price in the KOSPI 200 futures market. The outcome of the research is summarized as follows. In the analysis of subordinate periods, based on the yearly time segments, trading volume were found to lead futures price. As for trading volume, it was under comparably greater influence of its self of the past than the return rate of futures. In the analysis of subordinate periods, based on the trend of the futures market, trading volume lead return rate of futures feebly in a bull market. But return rate of futures lead trading volume significantly in a bearish market.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.171-191
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• 1997

83년 7월부터 NYMEX 선물시장에서 거래되기 시작한 원유선물은 90년대 들어 주식 채권 외환 등의 금융시장과 관련하여 크게 성장하고 있으며, 원유선물가격이 현물시장에서의 가격형성에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 따라서, 원유선물가격이 미래의 현물가격에 대한 최적의 예측치라고 하는 합리적기대모형(合理的期待模型)에 의거하여 원유선물 가격과 현물가격의 변화추이 및 그들 사이의 장(長) 단기(短期) 균형관계(均衡關係)(동태적통합(動態的統合))와 효율성(效率性)등을 일별(日別) NYMEX 선물유가(근월도래선물(近月到來先物)의 종가(終價))와 WTI 현물유가의 자료를 이용하여 계량분석하였다. 원유선물가격과 현물가격은 단위근(單位根)을 갖는 불안정(不安定)한 시계열이지만, 선물유가와 현물유가사이에는 공적분관계(共積分關係)(공통확률적추세(共通確率的趨勢))가 있어 장기적(長期的) 균형관계(均衡關係)가 존재하며, 또한 공시계열상관관계(共時系列相關關係)(공통안정적순환(共通安定的循環))가 있어 단기적(短期的) 균형관계(均衡關係)도 존재하는 것으로 보여진다. 그리고 선물유가는 미래의 현물유가에 대한 예측력이 있는 것으로 보여진다. 따라서, 원유선물가격이 미래의 현물가격에 대한 최적의 예측치라고 히는 합리적기대모형(合理的期待模型)과 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 원유선물가격이 현물가격과 장(長) 단기적(短期的)으로 동태적(動態的)인 균형관계를 보이고 있으므로 정부의 합리적인 수입선다변화정책과 유가자유화에 따른 석유업계의 효율적인 운영방안의 하나로 원유선물시장의 활용이 더욱 더 필요할 것으로 생각된다.