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A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

An Analysis of the Behavior and the Preference of Roof Spaces Depending on Building Types - A Focus on the Case of Seoul, Korea - (건물용도별 옥상공간의 이용행태 및 선호도 분석 - 서울특별시의 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Eun-Jin;Jung, Tae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2014
  • Today, most roof spaces are being designed as places for resting. The use of the roof spaces needs to be raised otherwise, budgeting or costs involved can be wasteful. A well-made plan is needed to increase the use of the roof spaces. The behavior of and preference for roof spaces could differ depending on building usage because the users of these roof spaces can be different. Therefore, this study selected 4 building types depending on usage: public buildings, educational and research buildings, medical buildings, and commercial buildings. Two buildings that created roof spaces per building type were selected. A survey was undertaken of the user experience of roof spaces on the buildings. The behavior and preference of roof spaces depending on building types were analyzed and the results are as follows. The behavior of using roof spaces regarding purpose, motivation, frequency, and average length of stay were different depending on the building types. In terms of purpose, over all four building types, taking a rest was the primary reason for using roof spaces. However, talking and smoking in public buildings, smoking, taking a walk or stretching, and viewing the exterior landscape in educational and research buildings, taking a walk or stretching and talking in medical buildings, taking care of children and talking in commercial buildings were also important reasons for using roof spaces. The preference of roof space components such as plants, paving materials, and facilities were different depending on the building types. In terms of plants, the users of public buildings preferred herbaceous plants and vegetables/aquatic plants more than the users of other building types. The users of medical buildings preferred vegetables/aquatic plants, and the users of commercial buildings preferred arbores, herbaceous plants, and vegetables/aquatic plants more than the users of other building types. This study provides empirical data for the behavior and the preference of roof spaces depending on building types. These findings could provide new insights into how to increase the use of roof spaces.

Methods of Incorporating Design for Production Considerations into Concept Design Investigations (개념설계 단계에서 총 건조비를 최소로 하는 생산지향적 설계 적용 방법)

  • H.S.,Bong
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.131-136
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    • 1990
  • 여러해 전부터 선박의 생산실적이나 생산성 관련 자료를 기록하고 보완하는 작업을 꾸준히 개선토록 노력해온 결과중 중요한 것 하나는, 선박의 여러 가지 설계 검토과정에서 충분히 활용할 수 있는 함축성 있고 믿을만한 형태의 생산정보를 제공해줄 수 있게 되었다는 것이라고 말 할 수 있겠다. 이러한 자료들은 생산계획상 각 단계(stage)에서의 작업량, 예상재료비와 인건비의 산출등이 포함될 수 있으며, 선박이나 해상구조물의 전반적인 설계방법론(design methodology)을 개선코자 한다면 ''생산지향적 설계(Design for Production)''의 근간이 되는 선박건조전략(build strategy), 구매정책(purchasing policy)과 생산기술(production technology)에 대한 폭넓은 지식이 한데 어우러져야 한다. 최근에는 CIMS의 일부분에서 보는 바와 같은 경영관리, 설계 및 생산지원 시스템의 도입으로 이와 같은 설계 프로세스의 추진을 가능케하고 있다. 이와 병행하여 설계를 지원하기 위한 전산기술, 특히 대화형 화상처리기술(interactive graphics)의 발달은 설계자가 선박의 형상이나 구조 배치를 여러 가지로 변화시켜 가면서 눈으로 즉시 확인할 수 있도록 설계자의 능력을 배가시키는데 크게 기여하고 있다. 여러 가지의 설계안(alternative design arrangement)을 신속히 만들어내고 이를 즉시 검토 평가할 수 있는 능력을 초기설계 단계에서 가질 수 있다면 이는 분명히 큰 장점일 것이며, 더구나 설계초기 단계에 생산관련인자를 설계에서 고려할 수 있다면 이는 더욱 두드러진 발전일 것이다. 생산공법과 관련생산 비용을 정확히 반영한 각 가지의 설계안을 짧은 시간내에 검토하고 생산소요 비용을 산출하여 비교함으로써, 수주계약단계에서 실제적인 생산공법과 신뢰성있는 생산실적자료를 기준으로 하여 총 건조비(total production cost)를 최소로 하는 최적의 설계를 선택할 수 있도록 해 줄 것이다. 이제 이와 같은 새로운 설계도구(design tool)를 제공해 주므로써 초기설계에 각종 생산관련 정보나 지식 및 실적자료가 반영가능토록 발전되었다. 본 논문은 영국의 뉴카슬대학교(Univ. of Newcastle upon Type)에서 위에 언급한 특징들을 반영하여 새로운 선박구조 설계 방법을 개발한 연구결과를 보여주고 있다. 본 선계연구는 5단계로 구분되는데; (1) 컴퓨터 그라픽스를 이용하고 생산정보 데이타베이스와 연결시켜 구조형상(geometry)을 정의하고 구조부재 칫수(scantling) 계산/결정 (2) 블럭 분할(block division) 및 강재 배치(panel arrangement)의 확정을 위해 생산기술 및 건조방식에 대한 정보 제공 (3) 상기 (1) 및 (2)를 활용하여 아래 각 생산 단계에서의 생산작업 분석(work content assessment) a) 생산 준비 단계(Preparation) b) 가공 조립 단계(Fabrication/Assembly) c) 탑재 단계(Erection) (4) 각각의 설계(안)에 대하여 재료비(material cost), 인건비(labour cost) 및 오버헤드 비용(overhead cost)을 산출키 위한 조선소의 생산시설 및 각종 품셈 정보 (5) 총 건조 비용(total production cost)을 산출하여 각각의 설계안을 비교 검토. 본 설계 방식을 산적화물선(Bulk Carrier) 설계에 적용하여 구조배치(structural geometry), 표준화의 정도(levels of standardisation), 구조생산공법(structural topology) 등의 변화에 따른 설계 결과의 민감도를 분석(sensitivity studies)하였다. 전산장비는 설계자의 대화형 접근을 용이하도록 하기 위해 VAX의 화상 처리장치를 이용하여 각 설계안에 대한 구조형상과 작업분석, 건조비 현황 등을 제시할 수 있도록 하였다. 결론적으로 본 연구는 설계초기 단계에서 상세한 건조비 모델(detailed production cost model)을 대화형 화상 처리방법에 접합시켜 이를 이용하여 여러가지 설계안의 도출과 비교검토를 신속히 처리할 수 있도록 함은 물론, 각종 생산 실적정보를 초기설계에 반영하는 최초의 시도라고 믿으며, 생산지향적(Design for Production) 최적설계분야의 발전에 많은 도움이 되기를 기대해 마지 않는다. 참고로 본 시스템의 설계 적용결과를 부록에 요약 소개하며, 상세한 내용은 참고문헌 [4] 또는 [7]을 참조 요망한다.

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A problem of authenticity in the chapter 'Confucius became aged, and liked "The Book of Changes"' of yao 要, "essentials," seen throughout 『帛書周易』 the Mawangdui Boshu Zhouyi Manuscript. -in relation to Confucius and 『易』"The Changes"- (『백서주역(帛書周易)』 「요(要)」의 '부자노이호역(夫子老而好易)'장의 진위(眞僞) 문제 -공자와 『역』의 관계를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Sang-sup
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.129
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2014
  • Columns 12-18 record a conversation between an aged Confucius and his disciple Zi Gong concerning the Changes and especially the role of divination in its use. The last section, from the bottom of column 24, concerns the hexagrams Sun損, "Decrease," and Yi益, "Increase," which Confucius is here made to regard as the culmination of wisdom in the Zhouyi. The conversation between Confucius and Zi Gong, and especially Zi Gong's apparent misunderstanding of Confucius's interest in the text, has already attracted considerable scholarly interest. Zi Gong criticizes Confucius for changing his teaching about the importance of the Zhouyi and for performing divinations. Confucius responds that while he does indeed perform divinations. there is a major difference between his use of the text and that of others: he regards the I Ching as a repository of an ancient wisdom. This would seem to signal recognition of a dramatic change in the function and status of the text. Zi Gong said: "Does the Master also believe in milfoil divination?" The Master said: "I am right in only seventy out of one hundred prognostications. Even with the prognostications of Liangshan of Zhou one necessarily follows it most of the time and no more." The Master said: "As for the Changes, I do indeed put its prayers and divinations last, only observing its virtue and property. Intuiting the commendations to reach the number, and understanding the number to reach virtue, is to have humaneness and to put it into motion properly. If the commendation do not lead to the number, then merely acts as a magician; if the number does not lead to virtue, then one merely acts as a scribe. The divinations of scribes and magicians tend toward it but are not yet there; delight in it but are not correct. Perhaps it will be because of the Changes that sires of later generations will doubt me. I seek its virtue and nothing more. I am on the same road as the scribes and magicians but end up differently. The conduct of the gentleman's virtue is to seek blessings; that is why he sacrifices, but little; the righteousness of his humaneness is to seek auspiciousness; that is why he divines, but rarely. Do not the divinations of priest and magicians come last!" Although Confucius says two ways of the symbolic numbers and virtue-property, he emphasizes his way of virtue and property more important. In fact he who wrote in Yao 要, "essentials," Confucius's saying describes his own viewpoints of the Changes throughout the conversations between Confucius and his disciple Zi Gong, and is only to borrow the name of Confucius. Furthermore, quoting the original text in Yao 要, "essentials," in sequence, also comparing the materials of "the Analects of Confucius論語," with "the Shih chi史記," this thesis will be centered to a great extent on the relative similarity and differences between the Mawangdui Boshu Zhouyi Manuscript and the received text, and discussed the authencity of Yao 要, "essentials," of the contents shown in the chapter of 'Confucius became aged, and liked "The Book of Changes."' the relation of Confucius and the Changes will be clarified naturally through this progress.

The Method and Meaning of the Archiving Project of Suicide Survivors (자살유족 기록작업의 방법과 의미)

  • Lee, Young-nam
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.59
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    • pp.207-275
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    • 2019
  • This archiving project of the survivors of suicide was done with the survivor supporting team of the Seoul Suicide Prevention Center. The survivor supporting team was operating a Self-help Support Group for the emotional support of the survivors of suicide. A Self-help Support Group is a place for the survivors of suicide to regularly meet and share their suffering by talking of topics hard to discuss elsewhere. As the Self-help Support Group progressed members who acted as the leader of the group appeared. They formed an essay group that writes together. Two fathers who lost their sons, two mothers who lost their daughters, a mother who lost her son, a wife who lost his husband. The essay group met each week in a place facing Sajik Park. Through the windows that took up the whole side of the room, evening was coming in. The things that happened during the day went away towards Inwang mountain following the setting sun. Ten people (six members of the essay group, three from the survivor support team, a historian for unique conversation) sat around a table, facing each other. "Now, what shall we do?" History for unique conversation is a time that archives life by sharing conversations. At times a complete stranger, and other times people who share their ordinary lives sit around together (3-9 people, sometimes about 15). On the table there is coffee, bread, fruits and salads, and sometimes a dish someone heartily prepared. When a bottle of wine is placed on the table, each takes a glass. Morning, afternoon, the time the evening is welcomed in, late night. It does not matter which. For six months, 3 hours when meeting every week, 6 hours when at every other week. A room where the ambience is like that of a kitchen where sunlight enters, or a cozy living room is the best location. However, there are many times when it is held in a multipurpose room in the suburbs where many meetings are held, or in a classroom of a school. The meeting place is decided according to different situations of the time. There are no participation requirements as it is said to be for themselves to write down according to archiving form while looking back their lives thoroughly, and they are the only ones to stop themselves. The archives landscape from far away would seem like trying to do some talking. However, when going into a microscopic situation one must leave themselves to the emotional dynamics. It is because it archives the frustration and failures one experienced through life. A participator of history for unique conversation must face the sufferings of their life. The archiving project took place in 2013 to 2014. Many years have passed. Has the objective distance for archiving the situation of that time been secured? That may be uncertain, but I will speak of a few stray thoughts on archiving while depicting the process and method of operation.

Exploring the characteristics of Seo Kyung-duk's a man of virtue and Ki(氣) philosophy through 'the dojookjang[bamboo cane], the buchae[fan], and the k?mungo[Korean lute] ('도죽장, 부채, 거문고'를 통해 본 서경덕의 선비적 풍모와 기철학적 특징)

  • Hwang, Kwang-oog
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.59
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    • pp.261-286
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    • 2018
  • It is possible to communicate with objects in various styles, but especially the poem[詩], the ode[賦], the inscription[銘] are remarkable. The word is not the mouth, but the mind and the soul. Therefore, if a person is in a relationship with an object that defines the person, what conversation with the object is the person's inner. So if you know what a person has been with things, you can imagine his outer surface, and you can get inner if you know what you talked about. Seo Kyung-duk who lived a poverty life, but can not live without things, so his things are not a thing, Seo Kyung-duk also recorded especially about the dojookjang[bamboo cane], the buchae[fan], and the $k{\breve{o}}mungo$[Korean lute] Seo Kyung-duk with the buchae, Seo Kyung-duk with the dojookjang, and Seo Kyung-duk with the $k{\breve{o}}mungo$. These are the pictures we can imagine. And I can draw Seo Kyung-duk to talk with those things. Seo Kyung-duk, who is reflected in the dojookjang, shows the reality of participating in the rescue of the people's hardships and the stubborn world. Seo Kyung-duk, who is reflected in the buchae, is a philosopher who explores the origin of existence with the appearance of realistic preachers who have to wash away the difficulties of the people. Seo Kyung-duk, who is reflected in the $k{\breve{o}}mungo$, is a philosopher who grasps Ki(氣) the phenomenon and the source, the immaterial and the material, the type and the intangible. Both the strings and non-strings are $k{\breve{o}}mungos$. The $k{\breve{o}}mungo$ is strong in ideology symbolizing the Confucianism ideological ideals, and Seok Kyung-duk is also in the extension line. Seo Gyeong-deok, who has seen through the dojookjang, the buchae, and the $k{\breve{o}}mungo$ has a realistic sense of realizing that he should worry about the pain of the world and fulfill a good world. He is a philosopher who pierces the root of existence and can be governed by the logic of Ki(氣).

Analysis on Psychological Self-regulation and Arousal Variation of Actors on Performance (공연 시 배우의 각성변화와 심리적 자기조절 분석)

  • Hong, Kil-Dong;Lee, Hong-Sik;Lee, Hyung-Kook;Oh, Jin-Ho;Lee, Ki-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.176-189
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze self-regulation about changing heart rate and perceived arousal variation when actors start their performance. Object of this study were 5 actors who belong to the theater selected using the purposive sampling method. This study used a measuring instrument of heart rate to measure arousal status, used behavior observation paper to observe and record self-regulation behavior and executed personal consultation after ending performance. There was graph mad by variation transition which calculated average and standard deviation about variation of heart rate each time of performance. The results of this study were as follows. First, there were high variation of awake level that actor's heart rates were rising before starting performance and the most high level of arousal was from 20minutes to 5minutes before starting performance. Second, there were self-regulation behaviors appeared such as deep breathing, breath controling, self talking, talking with other actors, concentrating an script, going to toilet, smoking, checking closes before starting performance. Third, when performance start, actors used psychological self-regulational method such as relaxation, self concentration, confidence reinforcement, coping with state or accommodation for controling raised arousal status.

Healthy Family Educational Need and Life Satisfaction of Middle School Students and Their Parents (중학생과 학부모의 청소년을 위한 건강가정 교육에 관한 요구도와 생활 만족도)

  • Lee Yon-Suk;Lee Yoon-Jung;Jung Sun-Hee;Jun Jin-You;Kim Yoon-Sun;Kim Ha-Nui;Sohn Joo-Young
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.1 s.39
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    • pp.95-111
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to identify healthy family educational need and life satisfaction of middle school students and their parents. The data for the analysis were collected from 674 middle school students and 597 their parents living in Seoul using the structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA with Duncan test, and Pearson' correlation analysis were used to examine the data. The results indicated that the need for healthy family education of the middle school students was high. The students were interested in consumer economics and friend relationship, whereas their parents were interested in consumer economics and family relationship. Some of the demographic variables, such as gender, living area, and the amount of allowance, were the variables affecting the educational needs of students. There were relatively high correlation between healthy family educational need and life satisfaction, so educators should provide the healthy family education program to improve students' life satisfaction.

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Significance of Ages of Tungsten Mineralization (중석(重石) 광화작용(鑛化作用) 시기(時期)의 의의(意義))

  • Moon, Kun Joo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 1995
  • It is understood that many big tungsten deposits such as the Sangdong in Korea, Fugigatami in Japan, Yukon in Canada, Pine Creek in U.S.A and Vostok in Russia were formed at late Cretaceous ages. However, most of tungsten mineralization in China where half the total world tungsten ores is reserved took place in late Jurassic to early Cretaceous ages. While the close association of molybdenum with tungsten mineralization is observed in the deposits related with Cretaceous magma, tungsten deposits in China related with late Jurassic to early Cretaceous show a close association of tin as well as molybdenum mineralization. It is characteristic that tungsten mineralization in China was followed by tin mineralization. The mode of occurrence of tungsten ore deposits in China is various and may represent the origin of tungsten in general, since the larger half of total amount of tungsten ores in the world are reserved in China. In case of Korea, more than 90% of total production of tungsten was occupied by the Sangdong tungsten deposit, which produced molybdenite as a byproduct Even if tin is detected in ppm unit content, no cassiterite is found in the Sangdong tungsten orebody. A similar type of two tungsten deposits is comparatively studied in order to confirm the published data; one is the Moping tungsten deposit in China and the other is the Dehwa tungsten deposit in Korea. Mineral assemblages occurring in quartz veins of both deposits are more or less same except that zinnwaldite and cassiterite occur only in the former deposit Ages of zinnwaldite and muscovite closely with molybdenite in the former deposit are 181.1 Ma and 167.8 Ma respectively, while muscovites associated with molybdenite in the latter deposit show ages of 80.9 Ma and 80.2 Ma. These results may represent deficient supply of tin from the source granitoid from which tungsten was derived in Korean peninsula during Cretaceous period, while tin supplied during tungsten mineralization tended to increase and the active tin mineralization followed the Jurassic tungsten mineralization in China.

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Diagnosis and Evaluation of Humanities Therapy: The Phonetic Analysis of Speech Rates and Fundamental Frequency According to Preferred Sensation Type (인문치료의 진단 및 평가: 감각유형에 따른 말속도와 기본주파수의 실험음성학적 분석)

  • Lee, Chan-Jong;Heo, Yun-Ju
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between the preferred sensation type and speech sounds, especially on $F_0$ and the speech rates. Data for the sensation types and speech sounds were collected from 36 undergraduate and graduate students (17 male, 19 female). Subjects were asked to read a given text (400 syllables), describe a drawing, and give answers to some questions. We measured speakers' $F_0$ and speech rates. The results show that type V (Visual) has the correlation with the speech rates when type D (Digital) was ruled out, and type A (Auditory) has the correlation with the speech rates when type D was included. Furthermore, the analysis of the mean values of V, A, K (Visual, Auditory, Kinethetic) indicates that type V is characterized with faster speech rates and higher $F_0$ in all parts except for interview and the same is true for that of V, A, K, D (Visual, Auditory, Kinethetic, Digital) in all parts. In conclusion, this study proved that the preferred sensation type has the correlation with $F_0$ and speech rates. Based on the results of this study, $F_0$ and speech rates can be used to analyze the sensation types for individualized education as well as consultation. In addition, this study has great significance in that it lays a foundation for the study on the correlation between a preferred sensation type and speech sounds.