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Basic Research on the Possibility of Developing a Landscape Perceptual Response Prediction Model Using Artificial Intelligence - Focusing on Machine Learning Techniques - (인공지능을 활용한 경관 지각반응 예측모델 개발 가능성 기초연구 - 머신러닝 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Pyo;Suh, Joo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2023
  • The recent surge of IT and data acquisition is shifting the paradigm in all aspects of life, and these advances are also affecting academic fields. Research topics and methods are being improved through academic exchange and connections. In particular, data-based research methods are employed in various academic fields, including landscape architecture, where continuous research is needed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the possibility of developing a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model using machine learning, a branch of Artificial Intelligence, reflecting the current situation. To achieve the goal of this study, machine learning techniques were applied to the landscaping field to build a landscape preference evaluation and prediction model to verify the simulation accuracy of the model. For this, wind power facility landscape images, recently attracting attention as a renewable energy source, were selected as the research objects. For analysis, images of the wind power facility landscapes were collected using web crawling techniques, and an analysis dataset was built. Orange version 3.33, a program from the University of Ljubljana was used for machine learning analysis to derive a prediction model with excellent performance. IA model that integrates the evaluation criteria of machine learning and a separate model structure for the evaluation criteria were used to generate a model using kNN, SVM, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Neural Network algorithms suitable for machine learning classification models. The performance evaluation of the generated models was conducted to derive the most suitable prediction model. The prediction model derived in this study separately evaluates three evaluation criteria, including classification by type of landscape, classification by distance between landscape and target, and classification by preference, and then synthesizes and predicts results. As a result of the study, a prediction model with a high accuracy of 0.986 for the evaluation criterion according to the type of landscape, 0.973 for the evaluation criterion according to the distance, and 0.952 for the evaluation criterion according to the preference was developed, and it can be seen that the verification process through the evaluation of data prediction results exceeds the required performance value of the model. As an experimental attempt to investigate the possibility of developing a prediction model using machine learning in landscape-related research, this study was able to confirm the possibility of creating a high-performance prediction model by building a data set through the collection and refinement of image data and subsequently utilizing it in landscape-related research fields. Based on the results, implications, and limitations of this study, it is believed that it is possible to develop various types of landscape prediction models, including wind power facility natural, and cultural landscapes. Machine learning techniques can be more useful and valuable in the field of landscape architecture by exploring and applying research methods appropriate to the topic, reducing the time of data classification through the study of a model that classifies images according to landscape types or analyzing the importance of landscape planning factors through the analysis of landscape prediction factors using machine learning.

Investigation of the location of Jagiso eunchon in Goheung-hyeon and review the characteristics of Undae-ri kiln (고흥현 자기소(磁器所) 은촌(犾村)의 위치 탐색과 운대리 가마터 성격 검토)

  • SUNG Yungil
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.72-92
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    • 2023
  • As described above, the location of Jagiso eunchon in Goheung-hyeon and the nature of Undae-ri kiln site were examined. Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency was moved to Joyang-hyeon, which is now Joseong-myeon, Boseong-gun in 1395. Therefore, Goheung-hyeon Jagiso Eunchon in Sejongsillok Jiriji corresponding to 1424~1432 should be found in the west of Joseong-myeon, Boseong, where the administrative agency was moved in 1395. Among the four boundaries of Goheung-hyeon recorded in the 『Sejongsillok』 Jiriji, it is recorded as 2-ri by the sea in the south and 8-ri by Nakan in the east. If the current Goheung-hyeon is Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency in the Sejongsillok Jiriji Records Compilation Period, it cannot be the boundary the south and east mentioned above. This is because it cannot be 2-ri from the current Goheung-eup to the sea in the south, and Nakan is close to the north, not the east, as recorded. However, it has already been suggested that Joyanghyeonseong(朝陽縣城), located in Gonae Village, Ucheon-ri, Josung-myeon, Boseonggun is an Goheunghyeon's administrative agency. And if the four-way boundary of Goheung-hyeon was converted into the current distance unit based on this place(Joyanghyeonseong, 朝陽縣城), an approximate result could be obtained even if it did not exactly match. Therefore, it is highly likely that Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency, which was moved to Joyang-hyeon, Boseong in 1395, is Gonae Village, Ucheon-ri, JoSeong-myeon, Boseong. Jagiso eunchon(犾村) in Goheung-hyeon can be interpreted as a "dog-shouting village." It is thought to be a meaning structure of "animal + sound". A place name thought to have the same structure was identified in Jeongheung-ri, west of Ucheon-ri, Joseongmyeon, Boseong. It is the name of a village called Hoeum-dong(虎吟洞), and it is interpreted as the sound of a tiger or the bark of a tiger, which is the same as the meaning structure of Eunchon. However, there is Gaesan Village in the south of Hoeum-dong, and a Buncheong ware kiln site was identified around it. At this kiln site, a fragment of carved Buncheong ware engraved with the character "Eon", which corresponds to the right stroke of the character "Seom (贍)" in the name "Naeseom (內贍)" was identified. A small amount of Buncheong ware and Joseon celadon pieces were also identified. It can be seen that the Buncheong ware paid to the government was made by checking the Buncheong ware with the government name engraved on it. On the west side of Joyanghyeonseong Fortress in Ucheon-ri, joseong-myeon, Boseong, which was the administrative agency of Goheung-hyeon and the area around the Gaesan Buncheong ware kiln site in Jeongheung-ri, where the Buncheong ware paid to the government was, is thought to be Jagiso Eunchon, Goheung-hyeon. Jagiso and Dogiso are located in the four directions based on the administrative agency. Naturally, the location of Jagiso and Dogiso is also determined on where the administrative agency of Hyeon is. Since the Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency in the early Joseon Dynasty was moved to Ucheon-ri, joseong-myeon, Boseong-myeon, it is necessary to naturally find Jagiso and Dogiso in Boseong. In addition, regarding the nature of the kiln site in Undae-ri, the aspects of the excavated relics were considered. As a result, it is believed that the Undae-ri kiln site functioned as a jagiso in Heungyang-hyeon from February 1441 to the 1470s. If so, the "Ye" Buncheong ware, which was collected around Undae-ri kiln No. 7, could be naturally understood.

A Study on the Improvement of Flexible Working Hours (탄력적 근로시간제 개선에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-man
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2022
  • In modern industrial capitalism, the relationship between the provision of work and the receipt of wages has become an important principle governing society. According to the labor contract, the wages provided by entrusting the right to dispose of one's labor to the employer are directly compensated, and human life should be guaranteed and reproduced with proper rest. The establishment of labor relations under free contracts represents a problem in protecting workers, and accordingly, the maximum of working hours is set as a minimum right for workers, and the standard for minimum rest is set and assigned. The reduction of working hours is very important in terms of the quality of life of workers, but it is also an important issue in efficient corporate activities. As of 2020, Korea has 1,908 hours of annual working hours, the third lowest among OECD 37 countries in the happiness index surveyed by the Sustainable Development Solution Network(SDSN), an agency under the United Nations. Accordingly, the necessity of reducing working hours has been recognized, and the maximum working hours per week has been limited to 52 hours since 2018. In this situation, various working hours are legally excluded as a way to maintain the company's value-added creation and meet the diverse needs of workers, and Korea's Labor Standards Act restricts flexible working hours within three months, flexible working hours exceeding three months, selective working hours, and extended working hours. However, in the discussion on the application of the revised flexible working hours system in 2021 and the expansion of the settlement unit period recently discussed, there is a problem with the flexible working hours system, which needs to be improved. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the problems of the flexible working hours system and improvement measures. The flexible working hours system is a system that does not violate working hours even if the legal working hours are exceeded on a specific day or week according to a predetermined standard, and does not have to pay additional wages for excessive overtime work. It is mainly useful as a form of shift work in manufacturing, sales service, continuous business or electricity, gas, water, and transportation for long-term operations. It is also used as a way to shorten working hours, such as expanding holidays through short working days. However, if the settlement unit period is expanded, it is disadvantageous to workers as the additional wages that workers can receive will not be received. Therefore, First, in order to expand the settlement unit period currently under discussion, additional wages should be paid for the period expanded from the current standard. Second, it is necessary to improve the application of the flexible working hours system to individual workers to have sufficient consultation with individual workers in a written agreement with the worker representative, Third, clarify the allowable time for extended work during the settlement unit period, and Fourth, limit the daily working hours or apply to continuous rest. In addition, since the written agreement of the worker representative is an important issue in the application of the flexible working hours system, it is necessary to secure the representation of the worker representative.

An Archaeological Review of the Inscribed Bricks Excavated from the Tomb of Jang Mui: A Focus on the Collection of the National Museum of Korea (장무이묘 출토 명문전(銘文塼)의 고고학적 검토 -국립중앙박물관 소장품을 중심으로)

  • Lee Nakyung
    • Bangmulgwan gwa yeongu (The National Museum of Korea Journal)
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    • v.1
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    • pp.36-73
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    • 2024
  • The Tomb of Jang Mui located in Bongsan-gun, Hwanghae-do Province has attracted much attention since its first investigation due to the inscribed bricks found there that have allowed the guessing of the name and official title of its occupant and construction date. Inscriptions on these bricks, such as the "Prefect of Daebang Commandery Jang Mui" and the "Mu" (戊, the fifth sign of the Chinese calendar), and "Sin" (申, the ninth sign of the Chinese zodiac), have become the basis for believing the location of the government office of Daebang Commandery to be in Bongsangun, Hwanghae-do Province rather than somewhere in the Hangang River region. From the early days of its investigation, the tomb was suggested as historic remains of the Daebang Commandery along with the Earthen Fortress in Jitap-ri. Inscribed bricks excavated from the Tomb of Jang Mui were featured in several books and articles in the form of photographs and rubbings, leading to a vast body of studies on its construction period and the characteristics of its occupant that drew upon interpretations of the inscriptions. However, the inscribed bricks themselves were not publicly available outside those held in the collection of the University of Tokyo, making it difficult to expect consistent research findings on the types of inscribed bricks and their contents. Following previous studies re-examining the structure of the tomb and the materials used for its construction, most scholars dated the Tomb of Jang Mui to 348, a period after the collapse of Daebang Commandery. However, there is still a lack of adequate examination of the bricks, which account for the majority of the artifacts excavated from the tomb. Among the bricks excavated from most brick chamber tombs, including the Tomb of Jang Mui, only those with inscriptions or designs have been collected. Moreover, among these, only those with inscriptions or designs on the stretcher faces have been documented. Accordingly, the bricks themselves have been notably understudied. This paper intends to reorganize the contents of the inscriptions on eleven types (out of sixty-one pieces) of bricks in the collection of the National Museum of Korea, which make up the majority of the bricks excavated from the Tomb of Jang Mui. It also classified them according to their shapes. Furthermore, it examined the bricks from the Tomb of Jang Mui as architectural materials by focusing on their production techniques, including their forming, drying, and firing. Taking a more specific approach, it then compared the results to other bricks from the second century through the fourth century: those from the brick chamber tombs of the Nangnang and Daebang Commanderies and those from the brick chamber tombs built after Nangnang and Daebang Commanderies were ousted. The examination of bricks from the Tomb of Jang Mui has revealed that these bricks were basically produced using the brick manufacturing techniques of Nangnang, but they incorporated new elements found in bricks from brick chamber tombs or brick-and-stone chamber tombs constructed around the mid-fourth century in terms of their size, the use of lime, and the number of inscribed bricks. This supports the prevailing view that the date of the construction of the Tomb of Jang Mui is 348. The Tomb of Jang Mui sustained the existing brick chamber tomb burial tradition, but its ceiling was finished with stone. It demonstrates a blending of the brick chamber tomb practice of the Nangnang and Daebang Commanderies by using bricks produced based on related techniques, but with new elements such as the addition of a lime layer to the bricks. This fusion reflects the political circumstances of its time, such as the expulsion of the Daebang Commandery and the advance of the Goguryeo Kingdom, leading to diverse interpretations. Given archaeological evidence such as the structure, materials, and location of the tomb, the Tomb of Jang Mui appears to be highly related to the Goguryeo Kingdom. However, the forms of the inscribed bricks and the contents of the inscriptions share similarities with brick chamber tombs constructed during the third and fourth centuries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions in China. Further studies on whether the use of lime was an influence from Goguryeo or a continuation of the Daebang tradition and a comparative examination with contemporaneous stone ceiling tombs will provide a more refined understanding of the Tomb of Jang Mui.

The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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Influence of Oxygen Concentration on the Food Consumption and Growth of Common Carp, Cyprinus carpio L. (잉어 Cyprinus carpio의 먹이 섭취량과 성장에 미치는 용존산소량의 영향)

  • SAIFABADI Jafar;KIM In-Bae
    • Journal of Aquaculture
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.53-90
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    • 1989
  • Feeding proper level of ration matchable with the appetite of fish will enhance production and also prevent waste of food and its consequence, side effects such as pollution of culture medium. To pursue this goal, elaborate studies on dissolved oxygen concentrations- as the major force in inducing appetite and the growth outcome are necessary. The growth of common carp of 67, 200, 400, 600, and 800 gram size groups was studied at oxygen concentrations ranging from 2.0 to 6 mg/$\iota$ in relation to rations from 1 to as many percent of the initial body weight as could be consumed under constant temperature of $25^{\circ}C$. The results from the experiments are summarized as followings; 1. Appetite: The smaller fish exhibited higher degree of appetite than the bigger ones at the same oxygen concentrations. The bigger the fish the less tolerant it was to the lower oxygen thersholds, and the degree of tolerence decreased as ration level increased. 2. Growth : Growth rate (percent per day) increased - unless consumption was suppressed by low oxygen levels- as the ration was increased to maximum. In case of 67 g fish, it reached the highest point of $5.05\%$ / day at $7\%$ ration under 5.0 mg/$\iota$ of oxygen. In case of 200 g fish, the maximum growth rate of $3.75\%$/day appeared at the maximum ration of $6\%$ under 5.5 mg/$\iota$ of oxygen. In 400 g fish, the highest growth of $3.37\%$/day occurred at the maximum ration of $5\%$ and 6.0 mg/$\iota$ of oxygen. In 600 g fish, the highest growth rate of $2.82\%$ /day was at the maximum ration of $4\%$ under 5.5 mg/$\iota$ oxygen. In case of 800g fish, the highest growth rate of $1.95\%$/day was at maximum tested ration of $3\%$ under 5.0 mg/$\iota$ oxygen. 3. Food Conversion Efficiency: Food conversion efficiency ($\%$ dry feed converted into the fish tissue) first increased as the ration was increased, reached maximum at certain food level, then started decreasing with further increase in the ration. The maximum conversion efficiency stood at higher feeding rate for the smaller fish than the larger ones. In case of 67 g fish, the maximum food conversion efficiency was at $4\%$ ration within 3.0-4.0 mg/$\iota$ oxygen. In 200g fish, the maximum efficiency was at $3\%$ ration within 4.0-4.5 mg/$\iota$ oxygen. In 400g fish, the maximum efficiency was at $2\%$ ration within 4.0 - 4.5 mg/$\iota$ oxygen. In 600 and 800g fish, the maximum conversion efficiency shifted to the lowest ration ($1\%$) and lower oxygen ranges. 4. Behaviour: The fish within uncomfortably low oxygen levels exhibited suppressed appetite and movements and were observed to pass feces quicker and in larger quantity than the ones in normal condition; in untolerably low oxygen the fish were lethargic, vomited, and had their normal skin color changed into pale yellow or grey patches. All these processes contributed to reducing food conversion efficiency. On the other hand, the fish within relatively higher oxygen concentrations exhibited higher degree of movement and their food conversion tended to be depressed when compared with sister groups under corresponding size and ration within relatively low oxyen level. 5. Suitability of Oxygen Ranges to Rations: The oxygen level of 2.0- 2.5 mg/$\iota$ was adequate to sustain appetite at $1\%$ ration in all size groups. As the ration was increased higher oxygen was required to sustain the fish appetite and metabolic activity, particularly in larger fish. In 67g fish, the $2\%$ ration was well supported by 2.0-2.5 mg/$\iota$ range; as the ration increased to $5\%$, higher range of 3.0-4.0 mg/$\iota$ brought better appetite and growth; from 5 till $7\%$ (the last tested ration for 67 g fish) oxygen levels over 4.0 mg/$\iota$ could sustain appetite. In 200 g fish, the 2 and $3\%$ rations brought the best growth and conversion rates at 3.5-4.5 mg/$\iota$ oxygen level; from 3 till $6\%$ (the last tested ration at 200 g fish) oxyge groups over 4.5 mg/$\iota$ were matchable with animal's appetite. In 400, 600, and 800 g fish, all the rations above $2\%$ had to be generally supported with oxygen levels above 4.5 mg/$\iota$.

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Time Course Variation of Vitamin $C_3$ Content in Leg Skin of Broiler Chicks Exposed to Different Dose of UVB Light (자외선의 상이한 선양을 조사한 브로일러 병아리의 다리 피부중 비타민 $C_3$ 함양의 경시적 변화)

  • 장윤환;김강수;여영수;강훈석;조인호;배은경
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 1993
  • This study was carried out to determine the concentrations of previtamin D$_3$(PreD$_3$), lumisterol$_3$(L3), tachystero1$_3$(73), vitamin D$_3$(VD$_3$) and provitamin D$_3$(ProD$_3$) in leg skins of broiler chicks exposed to UVB lights (maximum intensity at 297 nm) with dose of 0.204 or 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$(30 or 60 min irradiation) . The broiler Hubbard line day old chicks(2 dose $\times$9 elapsed time $\times$4 replica+10 control=82) were fed VD-deficient diet for 31 days in a windowless subdued light room. The skin was collected at 0, 6, 12, 18, 30, 42, 66, 90 or 138 hr after UVB irradiation. The skin lipid was extracted by 9% ethyl acetate/n-hexane, and the fraction of VD$_3$ and its analogues was purified by Sep-Pak silica cartridge. The straight phase HPLC was utilized to analyze ProD$_3$ and its products. The mole %(absolute level expressed in ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) of PreD$_3$ in leg skin (epidermis+dermis) was 4.67%(44 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 3.97%(37 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) right after UVB irradiation by 0.204 or 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$(30 or 60 min) at 15 cm distance, respectively. It content in leg skin at 0 hr after exposure was 7.24%(12 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 0.92%(9 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$), respectively. The increase in irradiation dose did not affect proportionally the If synthesis.73 concentration in leg skin was 0.58%(S ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 0.57%(6 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$), respectively 0 hr after irradiation. The VD$_3$ in leg skin of birds exposed to UVB light with dose of 0.204 or 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$ was 2.13% (21 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 0.97% (16ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$), respectively at 0 hr after exposure, 2.72%(26ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 3.84%(37ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$), respectively at 6 hr, and 4.30% ((33ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$) or 6.40%(76ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$), respectively at 12 hr. The peak concentration of VD$_3$ was presented at 18 or 30 hr when 0.204 or 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$) was treated, respectively. It was shown that 18~30 hr were necessary for the thermal conversion of PreD$_3$ into VD$_3$ in the leg skin of broiler chicks. The ProD$_3$ contents in leg skins of negative control, 0.204 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$ treated birds were 966, 948 and 815 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$, respectively at right before and after UVB exposure. It was estimated that 18 or 151 ng/$\textrm{cm}^2$ of ProD$_3$ was isomerized to PreD$_3$, L$_3$, T$_3$ and VD$_3$ when exposed to 0.204 or 0.409 mJ/$\textrm{cm}^2$, respective)y. Consequently it was shown that when double dose of UVB light was applied to irradiate the chick body, more but not double synthesis of VD$_3$ and its analogues was occured in leg skin of brolier chicks.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

REPORT OF EXPERIENCE WITH KIMURA'S DISEASE (기무라씨 질환, 5 예 보고)

  • Seel David J.;Park Yoon-Kyu;Lee Kwang-Min
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 1989
  • Kimura's Disease is a chronic inflammatory and proliferative condition producing subcutaneous masses especially in the head and neck area. This report of our experience with 5 patients with this disease is the first in the Korean surgical literature. Kimura's Disease is thought to be part of the larger spectrum of the entity known as angiolymphoid hyperplasia with eosinophilia (ALHE). It is characterized pathologically by hyperplastic lymphoid follicles, eosinophilic infiltration, and vase 비 ar proliferation. It produces masses which are most common in the area of the parotid, submandibular gland and upper neck. These masses occupy the subcutaneous tissues but also extend into salivary tissue and into upper neck nodes. One of our patients had masses in the groin. The tumors are extremely vascular due to the presence of new proliferative vessels and sinusoids. The average age of our 5 patients was 35, but all but one case were younger than 38 years of age. The male: female ratio was 3 : 2, and the average duration of symptoms was 5,2years. All patients had peripheral blood eosinophilia. All had multiple masses, sometimes symmetrical. The management was surgery alone in one case, surgery and steroids in one case, surgery and radiotherapy in two cases, and all three modalities in one case. The relationship of this entity to ALHE and our experience in the management of this disease are presented. A clinicopathological discrepancy alerted us to the existence of Kimura's Disease. A nineteen-year old male presented with subcutaneous masses over both mastoid areas present for 3 years (Case III). When biopsy on each side was reported as 'eosinophilic granuloma' we submitted the slides to an internationally expert pathologist. Symmetrically occurring tumors in the peri-parotid subcutaneous areas did not fit any category of neoplasm or granuloma known to us. The diagnosis, made by Dr. Gist Fan at the Ochsner Clinic, was Kimura's Disease. We found two additional cases in a review of soft tissue eosinophilic granuloma previously reported at Presbyterian Medical Center, and since then have diagnosed two new cases. These five cases constitute the basis for this, the largest series to be reported in Korea. These vascular, tumor-like lesions of the skin, subcutaneous areas and subjacent structures of the head and neck have been a variety of names, such as angiolymphoid hyperplasia with eosinophilia, eosinophilic hyperplastic lymphogranuloma, angioblastic lymphoid hyperplasia with eosinophilia, histioid hemangioma, and epithelioid hemangioma. The history of this disease spectrum dates back to 1937 when Kimm and Szeto (1) reported 7 cases of 'eosinophilic hyperplastic lymphogranuloma' in the Proceedings of the Chinese Medical Journal. In 1948 Kimura and his associates(2) reported additional cases in Japan under the title 'On the unusual granulation combined with hyperplastic changes of lymphatic tissue.' From then until 1966 several hundred cases were reported in China and Japan. The first report from the West was by Wells and Whimster(3) in the British Journal of Dermatology, in 1969. These authors coined the term, angiolymphoid hyperplasia with eosinophilia (ALHE). Since that time a debate has ensued as to whether Kimura's Disease and ALHE are distinct entities, or whether Kimura's is part of the larger spectrum of ALHE, perhaps a later or advanced phase. From the clinical perspective, surgeons should be aware of the diagnosis of Kimura's Disease not only as part of the differential diagnosis of head and neck tumors but also because these lesions are indolent, and generally require conservative surgical removal as part of the management program. CASE I. A 37-year-old female company employee presented in August 1982 with submental swelling of 12 years' duration and with inguinal swelling of 7 years' duration. The submental mass measured 5x5cm. and the inguinal mass was 8x4cm. in size. Peripheral eosinophilia varying from 14% to 40% was found. On August 20, 1982, the submental mass was removed and a superficial groin dissection was done. In May 1983 an intraoral lesion of the palate was removed. The patient is free of disease. CASE II. A 23-year-old unemployed man visited this hospital for the first time in July, 1984, with swelling of the right cheek present for 6 years. The mass was soft and ill-defined but measured 10x20cm. and extended from the submandibular upper neck to the zygomatic arch, and from the mastoid to the cheek, over the parotid gland. Eosinophilia varying from 27% to 29% was noted in the peripheral blood. On March 21, 1986, the lesion was resected. The procedure comprised an extended superficial parotidectomy from the temporalis fascia to the upper neck. Post-operatively radiotherapy 3000 rad tissue dose was administered using the 6 MeV linear accelerator. The patient remains free of disease. CASE III. A 19-year-old student came to the clinic with masses over both mastoid areas, present 3 years. On the right there were two adjacent lesions, one over the mastoid, the other in the upper jugular level of the neck. On the left it was a single mass over the mastoid. Eosinophilia varied from 13 to 32% in the peripheral blood, and 11.6% in the bone marrow. Incisional biopsy revealed 'eosinophilic granuloma' and a trial of predisolone was employed. The mass increased in size so a small dose of radiation (600 rads) was used, with substantial regression,. The lesion on the left was excised and follwed by 1000 rads radiotherapy. Finally recurrent tumor on the right side was removed on November 5, 1985. The patient remains free of disease. CASE N. A 29-year-old local merchant had had swelling of both upper necks since childhood. At the time of his first visit on March 17, 1986, the right submandibular mass measured 5x3.5cm. and the ,right upper neck and parotid tail mass measured 2.5cm. On the left there were masses in the upper neck, the largest of which measured 2.5cm, and of the parotid tail, 2.0cm. in size.(See Fig. 1) Peripheral eosinophilia of 39% was recorded. Left side partial parotidectomy and resection of the upper neck and subdigstric mases was done on May 2, 1986. The mass involving the right parotid tail and upper neck nodes was removed on Angust 7,1986. Postoperatively the patient was placed on prednisolone 30 mg. per day. No definite masses are palpable. CASE V. A 66-year-old housewife informed us, at the time of her first visit in May, 1986, that she had had multiple neck masses since 10 years ago. On the right side there was a 2.5cm. subcutaneous mass of the upper neck, over the upper jugular chain. On the left there was a 9x4.5cm. mass involving the entire parotid, the post-auricular area and the upper neck. A third mass presented in the submental area and measured 3.5cm. (See Fig. 2) Eosinophilia of 51% was noted in the peripheral blood. partial excision of the left upper neck lesion and complete excision of the submental mass were performed on june 6, 1986. post-operatively she was placed on 20 mg. of prednisolone daily, but when the mass re-grew after two months she was referred to Radiation Therapy for a 2500 rad course of treatment. A barely palpable thickening remains.

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A Survey of the Status of Nutrition in Rural Korea (농촌(農村) 영양실태(營養實態)에 관(關)한 조사(調査))

  • Lee, Geum-Yeong;Suh, Myung-Sook
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.71-76
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    • 1973
  • 1. This survey is somewhat different from that conducted by Yonsei University, although being in many respects, very similar. We found the average per capita caloric intake to be 7 or 8% of what it should be. Of that caloric intake, 84.5% in the model village here and 82.2% in the compared village Bupyong, by and large depends on cereal grains. Since such grains tend to distend the stomach, the farmers, it seems,should substitute fat for a part of their diet so as to dimish digestive pain and still receive the necessary calories. 2. Protein is the most important nutrient for the development of physical strength and improvement of health, but the average daily intake is only 68.3% of the necessary amount. It is desirable that the ratio of vegetable protein to that of animal be one to three for maintaining one's health. Most of the villager's protein, however, comes from plants: the intake of animal protein, at a level of only 13.6 g, is far below such a one to three ratio. 3. In the model village, 497.6 mg, of inorganic calcium is the daily intake level. In the compared village it is 505.5 mg, making a difference of only 8mg. This, however, is 35% less than the recommended intake. More than 50% of this calcium comes from cereals and other plants. Moreover, plant calcium which has much oxakuc acud us not as nutritional as animal calcium, so their calcium diet is less than it would appear. We must, therefore, make efforts to receive as good nutritional calcium as possible. 4. Among the vitamin group, the daily average intake of vitamin A and vitamin $B_{2}$ are respectively 40% and 32% less than the desired intake, while vitamin $B_{1}$ happens to be taken in sufficient quantities and more niacin is taken than which is even necessary. The intake of vitamin C is much more than the necessary quantity. However, this figure was calculated from uncooked food; if the loss from cooking were to be considered, the real intake might well be a little less. Also, as this survey was carried out in May, some of these results were influenced by the fact that lettuce and spinach are seasonally popular. In conclusion, except for a few nutrients which are in abundance, the normal food intake in a day is, on the whole, less than the average recommended. Furthermore despite the fact that both of these places are model villages in the development of nutrition, it seems that they have not gotten out of such conventional eating habiys as the almost dependancy on cereal grains. Cow's milk, sheep's milk, eggs and so on produced by each farmhouse are not used for their own families but are taken to the market for the purpose of making money. Accordingly, I think from now we must seek to improve, guide and enlighten the farmers as to how to correct their eating habits and implement changes in their lives so that our firm purpose may be achieved.

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