• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.78-96
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• 2009

The purpose of this study was to analyze and evaluate the menu served in government offices foodservice by using Kasavana & Smith's Menu-Engineering. Sales and food costs were collected from the daily sales reports for a year from Jan 2 to Dec 31 in 2007. Calculation for menu analysis and customer's data were done by computer using the MS 2003 Excel spreadsheet program and SPSS 12.0 package program. Menu mix% (MM%) and unit contribution margin were used as variables by Kasavana & Smith. Four possible classifications by Menu-Engineering technique were turned out as 'STAR', 'PLOWHORSE', 'PUZZLE', 'DOG'. The main menus served during a year were 128 dishes and about 141 peoples visited this restaurant daily. The mean age of the men was $44.1\;{\pm}\;6.3$, women were $32.7\;{\pm}\;6.4$ and showed that was statistically higher than that of women (p < .0001). The rates of STAR menus were 'Western style (75.0%)', 'guk/tang-ryu (48.1%)', 'jjigae/ jeongol-ryu (23.1%)', 'bap-ryu (17.2%)' in sequence. There were no STAR menus in gui/jorim/jjim-ryu. PLOWHORSE menus were 'gui-ryu (75.0%)', 'guk/tang-ryu (29.6%)', 'bap-ryu (27.6%)' in sequence. There were no PUZZLE or DOG menus in 'jjigae/jeongol-ryu'. PUZZLE menus were 'jorim/jjim-ryu and Myeonryu (each 33.3%)', 'bap-ryu (31.0%)' in sequence. PUZZLE menus were a lots of 'Chinese food (75.0%)' and 'myeonryu (55.6%)'. This study provides the basic data based on regularly menu analysis method applied the scientific menu analysis techniques in government offices food services, I'd like to suggest that the menu management must be done based on the necessity and result of menu analysis according to the seasonal and middle, long-term plans.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.55-80
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• 2012

I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.107-119
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to examine the current status of vascular plants and naturalized plants growing in the Seongeup Folk Village in Jeju and to consider and compare their distribution patterns and the characteristics of emergence of naturalized plants in other folk villages and all parts of Jeju, thereby exploring measures to well manage naturalized plants. The result of this study is as follows.11) The total number of vascular plants growing in Seongeup Folk Village is identified to be 354 taxa which include 93 families, 260 genus, 298 species, 44 varieties and 12 breeds. Among them, the number of naturalized plants is 55 taxa in total including 22 families, 46 genus, 53 species, and 2 varieties, which accounts for 21.7% of the total of 254 taxa identified all over the region of Jeju. The rate of naturalization in Seongeup Folk Village is 15.5%, which is far higher than the rates of plant naturalization in Hahoi Village in Andong, Yangdong Village in Gyeongju, Hangae Village in Seongju, Wanggok Village in Goseong, and Oeam Village in Asan. Among the naturalized plants identified within the targeted villages, the number of those growing in Jeju is 9 taxa including Silene gallica, Modiola caroliniana, Oenothera laciniata, Oenothera stricta, Apium leptophyllum, Gnaphalium purpureum, Gnaphalium calviceps, Paspalum dilatatum and Sisyrinchium angustifolium. It is suggested that appropriate management measures that consider the characteristics of the gateway to import and the birthplace of the naturalized plants are necessary. In the meantime, 3 more taxa that have not been included in the reference list of Jeju have been identified for the first time in Seongeup Folk Village, which include Bromus sterilis, Cannabis sativa and Veronica hederaefolia. The number of naturalized plants identified within the gardens of unit-based cultural properties is 20 taxa, among which the rate of prevalence of Cerastium glomeratum is the highest at 62.5%. On the other hand, the communities of plants that require landscape management are Brassica napus and other naturalized plants, including Cosmos bipinnatus, Trifolium repens, Medicago lupulina, Oenothera stricta, O. laciniata, Lotus corniculatus, Lolium perenne, Silene gallica, Hypochaeris radicata, Plantago virginica, Bromus catharticus and Cerastium glomeratum. As a short-term measure to manage naturalized plants growing in Seongeup Folk Village, it is important to identify the current status of Cosmos bipinnatus and Brassica napus that have been planted for landscape agriculture, and explore how to use flowers during the blooming season. It is suggested that Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Hypochaeris radicata, designated as invasive alien plants by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, should be eradicated initially, followed by regular monitoring in case of further invasion, spread or expansion. As for Hypochaeris radicata, in particular, some physical prevention measures need to be explored, such as for example, identifying the habitat density and eradication of the plant. In addition, it is urgent to remove plants, such as Sonchus oleraceus, Houttuynia cordata, Crassocephalum crepidioides, Erigeron annuus and Lamium purpureum with high index of greenness visually, growing wild at around high Jeongyi town walls. At the same time, as the distribution and dominance value of the naturalized plants growing in deserted or empty houses are high, it is necessary to find measures to preserve and manage them and to use the houses as lodging places.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.27-41
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• 2014

This study aims to investigate the history, cultural values prototype through literature analysis, characteristics of construction, location, space structure and landscape characteristics by Arc-GIS on the Munam pavilion(聞巖亭) in Changnyeong. The results were as follows. First, Shin-cho((辛礎, 1549~1618) is the builder of the Munam pavilion and builder's view of nature is to go back to nature. The period of formation of Munam pavilion is between 1608-1618 as referred from document of retire from politics and build a pavilion. Secondly, Munam pavilion is surrounded by mountains and located at the top of steep slope. Pavilion was known as scenic site of the area. But damaged in a past landscape is caused by near the bridge, agricultural facilities, town, the Kye-sung stream of masonry and beams. Thirdly, Munam pavilion is divided into the main space, which is located on the pavilion, space in located on the pavilion east and west and the orient space, which is located on the Youngjeonggak. Of these, original form of Munam pavilion is a simple structure composed of pavilion and Munam rock, thus at the time of the composition seems to be a direct entry is possible, unlike the current entrance. Fourth, Spatial composition of Munam pavilion is divided into vegetation such as Lagerstroemia indica trees in Sa-ri in Changnyeong, ornament such as letters carved on the rocks and pavilion containing structure. The vegetation around the building is classified as precincts and outside of the premises. Planting of precincts was limited. Outside of area consists of front on the pavilion, which is covered with Lagerstroemia Indica forest and Pinus densiflora forest at the back of the pavilion. Ofthese,LargeLagerstroemiaIndicaforestcorrespondstothenaturalheritageasHistoricalrecordsofrarespeciesresourcesthatareassociated withbuilder. Letterscarvedontherocksrepresenttheboundaryof space, which is close to the location of the Munam pavilion and those associated with the builder as ornaments. Letters carved on the rocks front on the pavilion are rare cases that are made sequentially with a constant direction and rules as act of record for families to honor the achievements. Fifth, 'The eight famous spots of Munam' is divided into landscape elements that have nothing to do with bearing 4 places and landscape elements that have to do with bearing 4 places. Unrelated bearings of landscape elements are Lagerstroemia indica trees in Sa-ri in Changnyeong, Pinus densiflora forest at the back of the pavilion, Okcheon valley, Gwanryongsa temple and Daeheungsa temple. Bearing that related element of absolute orientation, which is corresponding to the elements are Daeheungsa temple, Hwawangsan mountain, Kye-sung stream and Yeongchwisan mountain. Relative bearing is Gwanryongsa temple, Yeongchwisan mountain and Kye-sung stream Gongjigi hill. At Lagerstroemia indica trees in Sa-ri in Changnyeong, Pinus densiflora forest at the back of the pavilion, Kye-sung stream and Okcheon valley, elements are exsting. Currently, it is difficult to confirm the rest of the landscape elements. Because, it is a generic element that reliable estimate of the target and locations are impossible for element. Munam pavilion is made for turn to nature by Shin-cho(辛礎). That was remained a record such as Munamzip(聞巖集) and Munamchungueirok(聞巖忠義錄) that is relating to construction of pavilion. Munam pavilion located in a unique form, archival culture through the letters carved on the rocks and Large Lagerstroemia indica forest and through eight famous spots, cultural landscape elements can be assumed that those elements are remained.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 1985

The preservative effect of modified-atmosphere storage on the shelf-life of packed semi-salted and dried mackerel, Scomber japonicus, was examined. The semi-salted and dried mackerel fillets were packed in laminated plastic film bags (polyester/nylon/casted polypropylene: $12{\mu}m/15{\mu}m/60{\mu}m,\;15{\times}16cm$) filled with air (control, C), nitrogen gas (N), deoxygenized air (O) prepared by using free-oxygen absorber enclosed in the bag, in vacuum(V), and stored at $5^{\circ}C$. The quality of packed sample during the storage were examined in terms of viable cell counts of bacteria, thiobarbituric acid(TBA) value, perozide value(POV), volatile basic nitrogen(VBN), trimethylamine(TMA), adenosine triphosphate(ATP) and its related compounds and sensory evaluation. The results obtained are as follows: The pH of all the samples was in the range of $6.1{\pm}0.2$, and the contents of VBN and amino nitrogen of them increased during storage. In color values, L value(lightness) decreased while a and b values (red and yellow) revealed a tendency to increase during storage. The viable cell counts of the control sample(C) increased to $3.0{\times}10^6/g$ after 15 days storage but those of the other samples(V, N and O)were in the range of $2{\sim}6{\times}10^5/g$ after 20 days storage. The content of TMA increased during storage, but the histamine content showed a little change during storage and its content of all samples were less than 16 mg/100g. The inosinic acid(IMP) was rapidly degraded while inosine and hypoxanthine increased during storage. The TBA value of the control(C) reached a peak in 9 days and then decreased gradually while that of the sample(O) showed a little change during storage. The changes in POV of all the samples during storage showed a similar tendency to the TBA value. Fatty acid composition of raw mackerel consists of $35.6\%$ of saturated acid, $30.3\%$ of monoenoic acid and $34.2\%$ of polyenoic acid. The major fatty acid of the sample products were oleic acid($C_{18:1}$), palmitic acid($C_{16:0}$), docosahexaenoic acid($C_{22:6}$). The contents of polyenoic acid such as $C_{22:6},\;C_{20:5}$ decreased during storage while the other fatty acids showed a little change. From the results of sensory evaluation, the shelf-life of the control sample(C) was about 7 days and that of sample(V), (N) and (O) was about 15 days. It was concluded that deoxygenized atmosphere(free-oxygen absorber enclosed in the bag) was a good condition for preserving the quality of semi-salted and dried mackerel.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.191-204
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• 2015

According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.93-112
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• 2015

Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.117-127
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• 2012

Due to the recent expansion of the Web 2.0 -based services, along with the widespread of smartphones, online social network services are being popularized among users. Online social network services are the online community services which enable users to communicate each other, share information and expand human relationships. In the social network services, each relation between users is represented by a graph consisting of nodes and links. As the users of online social network services are increasing rapidly, the SNS are actively utilized in enterprise marketing, analysis of social phenomenon and so on. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the systematic way to analyze social relationships among the members of the social network using the network theory. In general social network theory consists of nodes and arcs, and it is often depicted in a social network diagram. In a social network diagram, nodes represent individual actors within the network and arcs represent relationships between the nodes. With SNA, we can measure relationships among the people such as degree of intimacy, intensity of connection and classification of the groups. Ever since Social Networking Services (SNS) have drawn increasing attention from millions of users, numerous researches have made to analyze their user relationships and messages. There are typical representative SNA methods: degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality. In the degree of centrality analysis, the shortest path between nodes is not considered. However, it is used as a crucial factor in betweenness centrality, closeness centrality and other SNA methods. In previous researches in SNA, the computation time was not too expensive since the size of social network was small. Unfortunately, most SNA methods require significant time to process relevant data, and it makes difficult to apply the ever increasing SNS data in social network studies. For instance, if the number of nodes in online social network is n, the maximum number of link in social network is n(n-1)/2. It means that it is too expensive to analyze the social network, for example, if the number of nodes is 10,000 the number of links is 49,995,000. Therefore, we propose a heuristic-based method for finding the shortest path among users in the SNS user graph. Through the shortest path finding method, we will show how efficient our proposed approach may be by conducting betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, both of which are widely used in social network studies. Moreover, we devised an enhanced method with addition of best-first-search method and preprocessing step for the reduction of computation time and rapid search of the shortest paths in a huge size of online social network. Best-first-search method finds the shortest path heuristically, which generalizes human experiences. As large number of links is shared by only a few nodes in online social networks, most nods have relatively few connections. As a result, a node with multiple connections functions as a hub node. When searching for a particular node, looking for users with numerous links instead of searching all users indiscriminately has a better chance of finding the desired node more quickly. In this paper, we employ the degree of user node vn as heuristic evaluation function in a graph G = (N, E), where N is a set of vertices, and E is a set of links between two different nodes. As the heuristic evaluation function is used, the worst case could happen when the target node is situated in the bottom of skewed tree. In order to remove such a target node, the preprocessing step is conducted. Next, we find the shortest path between two nodes in social network efficiently and then analyze the social network. For the verification of the proposed method, we crawled 160,000 people from online and then constructed social network. Then we compared with previous methods, which are best-first-search and breath-first-search, in time for searching and analyzing. The suggested method takes 240 seconds to search nodes where breath-first-search based method takes 1,781 seconds (7.4 times faster). Moreover, for social network analysis, the suggested method is 6.8 times and 1.8 times faster than betweenness centrality analysis and closeness centrality analysis, respectively. The proposed method in this paper shows the possibility to analyze a large size of social network with the better performance in time. As a result, our method would improve the efficiency of social network analysis, making it particularly useful in studying social trends or phenomena.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.101-124
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• 2018

Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.