Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Cumulative damage calculation model for water distribution system with increasing service year

사용연수 증가에 따른 상수관망의 누적피해도 산정 모형

  • Kim, Hyeong Gi (Department of Civil Engineering, Cheongju University) ;
  • Kwon, Hyuk Jae (Department of Civil Engineering, Cheongju University)
  • 김형기 (청주대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 권혁재 (청주대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2024.06.25
  • Accepted : 2024.08.05
  • Published : 2024.08.31
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Abstract

In this study, a damage estimation model for water distribution system was developed to quantitatively calculate the cumulative damage of water distribution system. And it was applied to real water distribution system to analyze the cumulative damage of water distribution system. To analyze the overall damage rate of the water distribution system, the cumulative damage analysis formula of individual pipes was established. And the aging index that affects the damage rate was analyzed using MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation), and Romanoff's measured data was used to calculate the thickness change due to corrosion. In addition, a cumulative damage estimation model was applied to unit network such as small and medium block network, and the cumulative damage of the unit network for up to 50 years was calculated. From the results, it was found that the cumulative damage rate is increased from 7% to 79% for the water distribution system of Naeduk 1-dong, Cheongju City, as the age of the pipeline is increased from 20 years to 50 years.

본 연구에서는 상수도관망의 시간에 따른 누적피해도를 정량적으로 산정하기 위해 추계학적 방법으로 상수도관망의 누적피해도 산정모형을 개발하였으며 이를 실제 도시에 적용하여 사용연수 증가에 따른 상수도관망의 누적피해도 변화를 분석하였다. 상수도관망 전체 피해율을 분석하기 위해 개별 관로의 누적피해도 평가모형을 수립하였고 누적피해도에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 노후지수는 MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation)을 사용하여 분석하였으며 부식으로 인한 두께변화 예측을 위해 Romanoff의 실측데이터를 사용하였다. 또한 단위관망(중블럭, 소블럭)별 상수도관망의 피해도를 분석하기 위한 누적피해도 모형을 수립하고 이를 통해 최대 50년 동안의 단위관망의 누적피해도를 예측할 수 있었다. 분석결과, 대상 지역인 청주시 내덕 1동 상수도관망의 경우 사용연수가 20년, 30년, 50년으로 증가함에 따라 누적피해도가 7%, 43%, 79%로 증가하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 성과는 정부(과학기술정보통신부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(2023R1A2C1004456).

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