Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association (한국터널지하공간학회 논문집)

Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association (한국터널지하공간학회)
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A study on the weighting of influence factors for tunnel collapse risk analysis

터널 붕괴 위험도 분석을 위한 영향인자 가중치 산정에 관한 연구

  • Jeong-Heum Kim (Dept. of Geotechnical Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
  • 김정흠 (한국건설기술연구원 지반연구본부)
  • Received : 2024.05.23
  • Accepted : 2024.06.26
  • Published : 2024.07.31
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Abstract

In this study, the Delphi method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) were used to evaluate tunnel collapse risk from a comprehensive and multifaceted perspective. Influence factors were established through literature reviews, previous studies, and brainstorming sessions with expert groups, resulting in the construction of five main classification systems. A panel of 21 experts was formed, and three rounds of Delphi surveys were conducted to prevent errors and biases in the expert judgment process, thereby enhancing reliability. Ultimately, 14 influence factors were identified through CVR (content validity ratio) and COV (coefficient of variation) analyses of the experts' responses. Subsequently, the AHP method was applied to assess the relative importance of each influence factor and calculate the final composite weights. The timing of support and reinforcement had the highest priority, followed by groundwater inflow, joint conditions, support pattern levels, and auxiliary methods. These findings help identify the key factors affecting tunnel collapse risk and provide a foundation for developing strategies to improve tunnel safety.

본 연구에서는 터널 붕괴 위험도를 종합적이고 다각적인 관점에서 평가하기 위해 델파이 기법과 AHP (analytic hierarchy process) 기법을 사용하였다. 영향인자 정립은 문헌조사, 선행 연구 및 전문가 집단의 브레인스토밍 과정을 통해 총 5개의 상위분류체계를 구축하였다. 21명의 전문가 패널을 구성하여 총 3차의 델파이 조사 과정을 통해 전문가 판단과정에서 오류 및 편향을 방지하여 신뢰성을 향상시켰다. 최종적으로 전문가 답변에 대한 CVR (content validity ration) 및 COV (coefficient of variation) 분석을 수행하여 총 14개의 영향인자를 도출하였다. 이후 AHP 기법을 적용하여 각 영향인자의 상대적 중요도를 평가하고 최종 복합 가중치를 산정하였다. 지보 및 보강 시행시기가 가장 높은 우선순위를 가지며, 지하수 유입량, 절리면 상태, 지보패턴수준, 보조공법이 그 뒤를 이었다. 이러한 연구 결과를 통해 터널붕괴 위험에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들을 파악하고, 이를 토대로 터널 안전성을 향상시키는 전략을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

References

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