• Title/Summary/Keyword: Delphi technique

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

Application of the Delphi Technique in Modifying AHP Method (Delphi를 사용한 AHP방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Sung-Hwan;Gwon, Seong-Hoon;Park, Jin-Bum;Hong, Soon-Ki
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2009
  • AHP is widely used in various fields owing to its simplicity and clarity. However, it has the problems of reliability of panel's judgement and the assumption that each panelist's ability is equal. In this paper, we propose a reliable AHP method using Delphi technique, which aims to incorporate the relative expertise of panel and to increase their consensus. The method is called the Modified Delphi-AHP. We apply the method to analyzing the demand for lectures of Management of Technology.

A Survey of the effective BIM introduction plan on school building construction by Delphi Technique (델파이 기법을 이용한 학교건축물의 효율적 BIM 도입방안 조사 연구)

  • Seo, Deok Seok;Won, Ho Sik
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2014
  • This study is focused to find the ways to improve the effective BIM introduction plan on school building construction by Delphi Technique. For this, the questionnaire is made by in-depth interviews of 10 BIM specialists, the survey of other 30 experts was carried out. The results of 30 experts Delphi survey are as followed. (1) The haptic effect of BIM introduction is very rare as lack of awareness and information on BIM. (2) Problems are arising from deficiency of training and experience on BIM. (3) Practical utilizations of BIM are very useful. (4) Barriers of the spread of BIM are high cost and insufficient environments. (5) The development potential of BIM is high. In order to activate the BIM market, the introduction of an accurate evaluation criteria and rational cost calculation standard are needed.

Design and Implementation of Delphi System using Instant Messenger

  • Park, Hee-Chang;Cho, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments from participants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does so without physically assembling the contributors. Instead of it, information is exchanged via mail, FAX, or email. This technique is designed to take advantage of participants' creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It is structured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize the liabilities of group problem-solving. In this paper, we design and implement delphi system using instant messenger.

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Convergence Service Design Using Delphi Technique : Financial Service Robot for Introduction to Bank Branches (Delphi를 활용한 융합 서비스 설계에 관한 연구 : 은행지점 도입용 금융 서비스 로봇 사례)

  • Song, Young-gue;Lee, Jungwoo;Han, Chang Hee
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2020
  • This study applies the Delphi method to design services with convergence characteristics in the financial sector. In designing a service robot for practical deployment that can support and replace bank teller, the opinions and judgments of various expert groups were extracted and a consensus process was made through feedback. A total of six dimensions and thirty service elements were derived over three rounds. Coefficient of Variation and content validity were used to verify the suitability and reliability of the selected service elements. As a result, the essential service element of robots was interaction with customers, followed by basic and professional financial services. Based on these service factors, we proposed two types of service models. support mode to assist employees during business hours and alternative mode on behalf of employees outside business hours. It is hoped that this study will use the Delphi technique in the design of IT convergence services.

A Study on the Development of Planning Technique in Low Carbon Rural Village by Using Delphi Method (델파이방법을 이용한 저탄소 농촌마을 계획기술에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Ja;Lee, Chang-Hun;Lim, Chang-Su;Choi, Jin-Ah;Lee, Jeung-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to develop planning technique for low carbon rural village planning. planning techniques (169 cases : waterside Technique 87, inland Technique 82) were extracted through a various previous studies and literature. planning techniques of 43 cases for low carbon rural village have been developed by the importance validity evaluation for planning techniques using the Delphi Method. Developed techniques can be utilized to plan low carbon rural village for Sustainable Rural Development. In addition, these techniques will be able to contribute to recognition of the need about low carbon rural village and the development of national green strategy.

Testing for Self-care Ability Measurement in an Aged Health Center - A Delphi Technique - (일개 노인보건센터에서의 자가관리능력 측정도구 검증 - 델파이기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Myung-Soon
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: To find out whether the self-care ability measurement used for visiting health care provide an appropriate standard to select service methods using a Delphi survey and to offer basic data that can improve the measurement. Method: A Delphi survey was done with 39 people consisting of theoretical professionals, field managers, and practitioners engaged in visiting health care. Result: It was found that items and weighted points in the currently used self-care ability measurement needed adjustment. Therefore, a modified evaluation standard was presented by domains, items and detailed items. Finally, the self-care ability measurement is composed of 4 domains, 11 items and 19 detailed items. Conclusion: This study is significant in that it presented an evaluation standard applicable directly to business practice by supplementing problems in the existing self-care ability measurement. This study suggests the need to develop various measurements for elderly households based on community.

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A Delphi Survey for the Revision of the Diagnostic Criteria for Sanhupung (Puerperal Wind Disorder, U32.7) (산후풍 진단 기준 개정 위한 델파이조사 결과)

  • Choi, Su-Ji;Kim, Dong-Il
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.42-53
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: The definition of Sanhupung (Puerperal wind disorder) has been varied and there has been a prior study to establish the definition, but no clear conclusion has been reached on diagnostic criteria. Therefore, the aim of this study was to clearly redefine the definition of Sanhupung using the Delphi method. Methods: This study used the Delphi technique. A panel consisting of 13 experts of Korean medicine, particularly in Obstetrics & Gynecology, participated in the Delphi survey that included answering the 3rd round survey. The Delphi survey was conducted by evaluating and correcting the questionnaire using e-mail. Results: Through the Delphi survey, we have reached an agreement regarding the diagnostic criteria of Sanhupung. They are as follows: 1) Sanhupung can be diagnosed based on basic symptoms. If one or more symptoms are expressed in the basic symptom group, it can be diagnosed as Sanhupung. It is diagnosed in detail as a pain type or a sensory impairment type according to the category of basic symptoms. 2) Incidental symptoms are not essential for diagnosis, and are referred to for checking general weakness and autonomic nervous system conditions. 3) In order to meet the diagnostic criteria, the symptoms should occur within 6 months after childbirth or miscarriage, and the cause of the symptoms should not be classified as other diseases. Conclusions: The diagnostic criteria of Sanhupung were suggested based on the Delphi survey among experts in the field. Further research is necessary to improve the reliability and validity of the criteria.

A Study for the Establishment of the Diagnostic Definition of Sanhupung (U32.7) using the Delphi Method (산후풍의 진단적 정의 확립을 위한 전문가 델파이 조사 연구)

  • Oh, Su-Kyoung;Noh, Eun-Ji;Choi, Su-Ji;Kim, Dong-Il
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.16-30
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish a clear diagnostic definition of Sanhupung using the Delphi method. Methods: This study used the Delphi technique. A panel consisting of 21 experts of Korean medicine, particularly in of gynecologic medicine, participated in the Delphi examination that included answering the 4th round survey. The Delphi examination was carried out through evaluating and correcting the questionnaire by e-mail. Results: Through the Delphi survey, we have reached on an agreement regarding the basic concepts, time, cause, essential symptoms, and accessory symptoms of Sanhupung. They are as follows: 1) Sanhupung is a culture bound syndrome reflecting Korea's cultural specificity. 2) Sanhupung can be diagnosed even after the miscarriage. 3) For the diagnosis of Sanhupung, the main cause of symptoms should not be classified as other disease. 4) Sanhupung can be diagnosed based on essential symptoms and accessory symptoms. 5) Essential symptoms include local symptoms such as joint pain at specific areas, partial sensory impairment and general symptoms including pain of all the joints, whole body sensory impairment, increased sweating, feeling of wind coming into the body, worsened symptoms with the cold, intolerance to cold, and pain of all the muscles. Conclusions: The basic concepts and diagnostic definition of Sanhupung were suggested based on the Delphi survey among experts in the field. Further research is necessary to improve reliability and validity of diagnostic definition of Sanhupung in clinical trials.

A Study on the Policy of Sustainable Domestic Timber Supply Using Delphi Technique and AHP (델파이 기법과 AHP를 이용한 국산재 공급 확대를 위한 정책방안)

  • Kim, Ki Dong;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.3
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    • pp.434-442
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this research is to propose policy of domestic timber supply expansion. To recommend polices and draw the priority orders, this study has used Delphi technique and Analytic Hierarchy Process. It has executed to recommend policies of domestic timber supply expand by dividing produce, distribution and consumption parts. As the result of Delphi technique and AHP, 'Infrastructure for domestic timber produce (.239)', 'regional domestic timber gathering complex construction (.202)' and 'a public institution domestic timber use obligation (.126)' policies are derived.