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Study on Housing Price focused on Population Inflow

주택가격에 관한 연구: 인구유입을 중심으로

  • Young-Min Kim (Dept. of Economics and Finance, Kangwon National University)
  • 김영민 (강원대학교 글로벌인재학부)
  • Received : 2024.03.13
  • Accepted : 2024.04.20
  • Published : 2024.05.31
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Abstract

The purpose of study is to analyze the effect of population inflow on apartment price growth. For this purpose, proxy for population structure is employed: (i) net population inflow based on 'resident registration criteria', (ii) buyer's transaction. The major findings are as followed. First, net population inflow of total and 50 over gives no significant effects on the apartment price growth in Seoul and Jeju. However, there are significant and positive effects of 50s and 60s in Seoul, and 60s in Jeju on the apartment price growth, respectively. Second, buyer's transactions of 'total and 50 over' give positive effect on apartment price growth only in Seoul. However, 60s and 50s of buyers' transaction give positive effect on the apartment price growth both in Seoul and Jeju. This study implies that more detailed population inflow like age group provide more meaningful information to the study on apartment price growth.

본 연구는 서울과 제주 지역의 아파트 가격상승률에 인구유입이 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 주민등록상의 인구순유입과 매입자의 매매거래 증가율을 인구구조 대용변수로 사용하였다. 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주민등록상의 인구순유입 증가율이 서울과 제주의 아파트 가격상승률에 미치는 영향을 추정한 결과, '전체 및 50대 이상' 인구순유입의 증가율은 서울과 제주 모두에서 통계적으로 유의하게 영향을 미치지 못하였다. 반면 연령대별로 구분하면, 서울에서는 50대 및 60대, 제주에서는 60대의 순유입 증가율이 아파트 가격상승률에 각각 양(+)의 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 매입자 매매 거래 증가율이 서울과 제주의 아파트 가격상승률에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과, 서울에서만 전체 및 50대 이상의 매입자 매매 거래 증가율이 양(+)의 영향을 주었다. 연령대별로 구분하여 분석하면, 서울에서는 60대, 제주에서는 50대의 매매 거래 증가율이 각각 아파트 가격상승률에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 인구유입 관련 변수로 주민등록상의 인구순유입과 매입자의 매매 거래 증가율을 사용하였으며, 특히 연령대별로 세분화하여 아파트 가격상승률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2022년도 강원대학교 대학회계의 지원을 받아 수행한 연구임.

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