Analyses & Alternatives (분석과 대안)

Korea Consensus Institute(KCI) (사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원)
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A Critical Essay on 'new cold war' Discourses: The Political Consequences of the 'cold peace'

'신냉전(new cold war)' 담론에 관한 비판적 소론: '차가운 평화(cold peace)'의 정치적 결과

  • Jun-Kee BAEK (Department of International Relations, Hanshin University)
  • 백준기 (한신대학교 글로벌인재학부)
  • Received : 2023.09.15
  • Accepted : 2023.10.19
  • Published : 2023.10.31
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Abstract

This study aims to serve as a critical comparison of the currently controversial 'new cold war' discourse. It took three triggers for the 'new cold war' discourse to emerge as a major issue in the media and academia and to have real political impact. With the launch of China's 'Belt and Road' project and Russia's annexation of Crimea leading to the 'Ukraine crisis,' the 'new cold war' discourse has begun to take shape. Trump's U.S.-China trade spat has brought the 'new cold war' debate to the forefront. The 'new cold war' debate is currently being intensified by the Biden administration's framing of "democracy versus authoritarianism" and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Currently, there is no consensus among scholars on whether the controversial 'new cold war' is a new version, or a continuation of the historically defined concept of the Cold War. The term 'New Cold War' is less of an analytical concept and more of a topical term that has yet to achieve analytical status, let alone a theoretical validation and systematization, and the related debate remains at the level of assertion or discourse. Through this comparative analysis, I will argue that the ongoing discourse of the 'New Cold War' does not have the instrumental explanatory power to analyze the transitional phenomena of the world order today.

이 연구는 현재 논란이 되고 있는 '신냉전'에 대해 비판적으로 비교하기 위한 시론의 역할을 하는 것을 목적으로 한다. '신냉전' 담론이 미디어와 학계에 주요 이슈로 등장하여 현실 정치적 힘으로 작용하게 된 것은 세 번의 계기를 통해서였다. 중국의 '일대일로' 프로젝트가 출범하고 러시아의 크림병합으로 '우크라이나 위기'가 발생하면서 '신냉전' 담론이 형성되기 시작하여, 트럼프정부의 미중 무역분쟁을 통해 '신냉전' 관련 논쟁이 본격적으로 전면화 된 데 이어, 바이든 정부의 '민주주의 대 권위주의'의 프레임과 푸틴의 우크라이나 침공으로 인해 '신냉전' 논쟁은 현재 심화되고 있다. 현재 논란이 되고 있는 '신냉전'이 역사적으로 공인된 '20세기의 냉전(Cold War)과 동일하거나 연속선상에 있다는 합의'가 부재하다. '신냉전'이라는 용어는 이론적인 검증과 체계화는 물론이고 아직 분석적 개념의 지위를 획득하지 못한 시사적인 용어에 가깝고, 관련 논쟁 또한 주장이나 담론discourse 수준에 머물고 있다. '신냉전' 관련 담론들을 지지 및 동의하는 주장과 이에 대한 비판적 입장을 비교하여, 과거의 냉전과 어떠한 유사성과 차별성이 있는지 분석할 것이다. 이러한 비교 분석을 통해 현재 진행되는 '신냉전' 담론이 오늘날 세계질서의 전환적 현상을 설명하는 데 적실성 있는 개념이 아니라는 것을 논증하고자 한다.

Keywords

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