Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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An Analysis of the Effects of Fine Dust Reduction Policies on PM10 Concentration and Health Using System Dynamics

시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 미세먼지 저감 정책이 미세먼지 농도와 건강에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Seho Lee (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jung Eun Kang (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Ji-Yoon Lee (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Minyeong Park (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Ji Yoon Choi (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • Received : 2023.09.22
  • Accepted : 2023.10.18
  • Published : 2023.10.31
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Abstract

This study utilizes system dynamics to examine the effects of fine dust reduction policies on PM10 concentration and health. System dynamics has the advantage of modeling the dynamic and circular relationship between PM10 emission sources, reduction policies, PM10 concentration, and health effect. The study created policy scenarios for Korea's representative fine dust reduction policies - industrial PM10 emission control, diesel vehicle regulation, expansion of electric vehicles, and expansion of parks and green areas - and compared the results with the 2030 baseline if the current trend is maintained. The analysis showed that the policy of supporting electric vehicles reduced PM10 concentration by 0.21 ㎍/m3 and reduced the number of people with circulatory diseases by 494, and the effect was evenly distributed across the country. The industrial emissions regulation scenario resulted in the highest PM10 concentration reduction of 0.22 ㎍/m3, but had a lower reduction in the number of people affected (358) than the EV support strategy, which could be attributed to the fact that this policy had a particularly high PM10 reduction effect in industrial areas such as Danyang-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do, and Sahagu, Busan. As a policy implication, this study suggests that it is necessary to apply fine dust policies tailored to the characteristics of local emission sources.

본 연구는 시스템다이내믹스를 활용하여 미세먼지 저감 정책이 미세먼지 농도와 건강에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 시스템다이내믹스는 미세먼지 발생원, 저감 정책, 미세먼지 농도, 건강영향 간의 동태적이며 순환적인 관계의 모델링을 구축할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 연구에서는 국내의 대표적 미세먼지 저감 정책인 산업부문 미세먼지 배출규제, 디젤차 규제, 전기차 확대, 공원·녹지면적 확대를 대상으로 정책 시나리오를 작성하여 현재 추세가 유지될 때와의 2030년 기준 결과를 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 전기차 지원정책은 0.21㎍/m3의 PM10 농도 저감과 494명의 순환기계 질환자 수 감소 효과가 있었으며 전국적으로 고르게 효과가 나타났다. 산업 배출량 규제 시나리오에서는 0.22㎍/m3의 가장 높은 PM10 농도가 감소하였으나 전기차 지원보다 적은 질환자 수 감소 효과(358명)가 나타났는데 이는 해당 정책이 충북 단양군, 부산 사하구 등 일부 공업지역을 중심으로 높은 미세먼지 저감 효과를 보였기 때문이다. 이러한 결과는 지역의 배출원 특성에 맞는 정책 선정의 필요성을 제시하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 환경부 「기후변화특성화대학원사업」과 한국환경산업기술원의 환경보건디지털 조사기반 구축기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다(2021003330002).

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