Journal of Industrial Convergence (산업융합연구)

DAEHAN Society of Industrial Management (대한산업경영학회)
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Forecasting Market trends of technologies using Bigdata

빅데이터를 이용한 기술 시장동향 예측

  • Received : 2023.08.09
  • Accepted : 2023.10.20
  • Published : 2023.10.28
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Abstract

As the need for the use of big data increases, various analysis activities using big data, including SNS data, are being carried out in individuals, companies, and countries. However, existing research on predicting technology market trends has been mainly conducted using expert-dependent or patent or literature research-based data, and objective technology prediction using big data is needed. Therefore, this study aims to present a model for predicting future technologies through decision tree analysis, visualization analysis, and percentage analysis with data from social network services (SNS). As a result of the study, percentage analysis was better able to predict positive techniques compared to other analysis results, and visualization analysis was better able to predict negative techniques compared to other analysis results. The decision tree analysis was also able to make meaningful predictions.

오늘날 빅데이터 활용의 필요성이 증가하면서 개인, 기업, 국가 등에서 SNS 데이터를 포함해 빅데이터를 이용한 다양한 분석 활동들이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 기존 기술 시장 동향 예측연구는 전문가에 의존적이거나 특허나 문헌 연구 기반 데이터를 이용한 연구가 주로 진행되어 왔으며 빅데이터를 활용한 객관적인 기술 예측이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 소셜네트워크서비스(SNS)의 데이터로 의사결정나무 분석, 시각화 분석, 백분율 분석을 통해 미래 기술을 예측하는 모델을 제시하고자 한다. 연구 결과 백분율 분석은 다른 분석 결과에 비해 긍정적인 기술을 더 잘 예측할 수 있었고, 시각화 분석은 다른 분석 결과에 비해 부정적인 기술을 더 잘 예측할 수 있었다. 의사결정나무 분석도 의미 있는 예측은 가능하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the MSIT(Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the Graduate School of Metaverse Convergence support program(IITP-2023-RS-2022-00156318) supervised by the IITP(Institute for Information & Communications Technology Planning & Evaluation).

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